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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby DoomYoshi on Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:44 pm

Vote Count

Count(5) - PCM, Vio, trini, betiko, vodean
Jonty (1) - IB
Samgrossy (1) - thechuck
Thechuck51 (1) - sam
IB (1) - jonty

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch (or 3 if deadline is reached).
Deadline is Sep 5th.

Count Belisle and vodean have not voted or posted yet. I am prodding them both now.

As far as I can tell, the vote count is correct. Count is at L-1.
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby trinicardinal on Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:20 pm

vodean hasn't had much to say but did at least post 1 post as far as I see... Count is suspiciously absent.... especially considering that he is at L-1... have to check to see if he's been posting/.active otherwise... but that willhave to wait till tomorrow...


@pcm.,.. not sure - maybe... I have to get some time to try to work out the possible setups given what we already know... I honestly still haven't been able to work out for myself the T>= 2 part yet so i can't say... hopefully I'll have time to dig into that tomorrow
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby Iron Butterfly on Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:30 pm

Jonty's vote should be on count besisle.

You have jonty voting for me for your last two vote counts
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby DoomYoshi on Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:35 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:Jonty's vote should be on count besisle.

You have jonty voting for me for your last two vote counts


Can you quote the post where jonty voted for count?
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby Iron Butterfly on Sun Aug 26, 2012 9:08 pm

trinicardinal wrote:@ jonty

I agree that if Campin was a one shot tracker then that would mean that there would have to be a full tracker otherwise... what I cannot follow is that where Campin is scum (as proven) that there is " there is 99.9998% chance that we have AT LEAST one tracker". I don't follow how you came up with that conclusion... maybe I'm just dense but I don't get it... Also while I agree that in most circumstances I would not expect a vig to kill N1 I can understand why a vig might choose to go against that convention on this occasion with Campin. Certainly if I were a vig and had decided to kill on N1 Campin would have been my top choice... As it turns out it definitely worked for us and given everything I can understand why a vig might have decided that it was worth the risk.

killing Campin N1 also means that, since we don't have to lynch him today, we are free to pursue other leads and maybe get a lot more information to help us. with all that being said your vote on IB looks a bit like an OMGUS vote to me. it seems to come down to - because he agreed with a vig kill on N1 voted for me so FOS on you, jonty, for that

@ pcm

- I follow you with the K is >=1 OR T is an odd number but I don't follow how you got T is >=2 could you expand on it for me.... to me any value of T results in a set up that has a Mafia Goon in it.

@ Vio

Based on what I read all possible roles are as follows

    Vanilla Townie
    Town Tracker
    Town 1-Shot Tracker
    Town Doctor
    Town Jailkeeper
    Town Hider
    Town 1-Shot Commuter
    Town Vengeful
    Town Vigilante
    Town Role Cop
    Town Gunsmith
    Mafia Goon
    Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
    Mafia JOAT
    Serial Killer

not all will exist and some can only exist if others exist so, for example, the 1shot tracker wouldn't be there unless there was already a tracker.

I agree that Count's timing for the vote switch is unusual... in fact given the deadline Count ended up casting the lynching vote and its strange that it was so quickly after Campin's vote as well - as you say it could just be coincidence but it could also have been bandwagonning by mafia. His stated reason for the switch in vote isn't exactly the best either:

Count Belisle wrote:I know what Redhedge is talking about I have been there myself. it's tough to juggle school, RL situations and CC.
so I want to help him out. free up his time so to speak.

Unvote, vote Redhedge


All in all its suspicious enough for me to say Unvote: Vote Count


Sorry my mistake. Jonty did not vote for Count.
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby Iron Butterfly on Sun Aug 26, 2012 9:09 pm

The above post is why I messed up.
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Re: JK9++ (13/13) Day 1

Postby jonty125 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 3:26 am

betiko wrote:T>=2 is a rock solid fact jonty, we have 2 VTs dead.


The mod only generates 7 random numbers.

Mafia Wiki wrote:The moderator randomly chooses 7 numbers from 1-100, repeating permitted. Then, each number is turned into a letter as follows:


So it is perfectly possible that T=0, e.g. T=0, I=1, P=2, H=3, K=1, R=0. This gives 10 players non VT roles. We have had 2 non VTs flip, so that leaves us with a potential 11 non VT roles so T could = 0.
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Re: JK9++ (13/13) Day 1

Postby betiko on Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:23 am

jonty125 wrote:
betiko wrote:T>=2 is a rock solid fact jonty, we have 2 VTs dead.


The mod only generates 7 random numbers.

Mafia Wiki wrote:The moderator randomly chooses 7 numbers from 1-100, repeating permitted. Then, each number is turned into a letter as follows:


So it is perfectly possible that T=0, e.g. T=0, I=1, P=2, H=3, K=1, R=0. This gives 10 players non VT roles. We have had 2 non VTs flip, so that leaves us with a potential 11 non VT roles so T could = 0.



oops, you're right! so 7 randomized, means 6 non raondimized including 3/4 mafia/serial killer roles. and since we won't know if there are 3 or 4 mafia/serial killer roles, it's quite impossible to speculate... very good point!


trini; count belisle did post! at l-1 it's time for him to claim!
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby trinicardinal on Mon Aug 27, 2012 6:37 am

you're right betiko... count did post - it seems I made the same mistake our mod did. Weekends are definitely not my best times for dealing with mafia games... too little time online. for the most part.


@ Count

in relation to where we go from here - Well its time for you to tell us who you are and what role you have... you are extremely close to a lynch and you need to claim.

Yes Its a tricky game... all we have to go on at this point in time is how a person has communicated/reacted and what they have said. Your reasons for placing what amounted to a lynching vote on redhedge are definitely not good enough and are cause for suspicion. Also your relative inactivity now is suspicious as well and while I'm at it (FOS on vodean for the same level (or lack thereof) of activity). In the meantime and unless convinced otherwise my vote stays on Count.
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby thechuck51 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 8:42 pm

Count Belisle wrote:can you please recheck the vote count , I only have 3 votes.
to answer how I voted, well I couldn't pick between campin and redhedge, so I sincerely meant what I said when to redhedge about when it comes to school, so for as bad of a player as I 'm I actully roll a pair of dice to see who I was going to vote for, I thought it would be worst if I didn't vote. I was also asking if we were going to ask redhedge some questions too since he came close to lynching as campin did and he was pushed to claim. Man this is a tricky game you get into trouble if you keep your mouth shut, or if you do say something, so if I picked campin would everything be O.K.? or should have I voted without being a smartass like I did this time. So where do we go from here?

Count I think you need to claim. I'm prepared to hammer if you don't.
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby Count Belisle on Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:49 am

I'm a Vanillia Townie. is that it, and my realitive inactiveness is due to some RL things. IB ask macbone one of my sitters. and I have photos of the brush fire that had fire dept make me leave my house today ( yea got to love Southern California if we aren't burning ,we are shaking or flooding :D )

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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby jonty125 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:19 am

I've got no reason to not believe the claim. We have 8 days until deadline, so I think we need to push another case.

IB, you said my play was scummy in this post
Iron Butterfly wrote:
jonty125 wrote:Erm, where is Lord Voldemort's scene?? Anyhow, we definitely have mafia and SK, vig is a possibility. I'd bet that the guy who killed Campin was the SK and the guy who killed Lord Voldemort was the mafia. Vigs shouldn't be shooting N1, unless there has been a counterclaim.


I completely disagree.

If you are an SK the win condition will be to survive till the end. Why kill someone who is probable scum? The intelligent option would be to kill someone other then Campin as Campin was under the gun anyways. Towards the end I was very comfortable lynching Campin as he played like he had something to hide.

If I were a vig I would have no trouble targeting Campin night one. At the worst we lose a one shot tracker.

I do not understand fully the open format but I do believe there would be a very low probobility to have a SK, a Vig AND the Town protective role getting so lucky as to block a night one mafia kill.

Vote Jonty because I must AND I find your play scummy as well
but this post says nothing about me being scummy. I called it up here
jonty125 wrote:vote IB ... and then for voting for me being scummy, without giving me anything to defend about being scummy, or what I've done.
but you haven't responded. So I'd like to know how my play is scummy.


Also, vio, vodean and samgrossy have only posted once today. I understand sam might be on vacation :?: but as far I'm aware the other two don't have a reason to be inactive
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby Count Belisle on Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:41 am

I have remove this
Last edited by Count Belisle on Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby jonty125 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:46 am

Count Belisle wrote:I don't know if I'm suppose to post this here, but I was in The Underworld and Campin had posted in there today. We have lost campin today do to him being banned for being a multi. I don't know the whole story and I'm not going to speculate. Just I wish this didn't happen, he was a lot of fun in our user group, I don't know why people would have multi accounts ( I have 1 paid account and still can't keep up with all my games) he was a good player and I really liked playing in matches with him. :(

If I 'm not suppose to post this here just say so and I will delete it.


Campin is dead in this game. But put it in Mafia Discussions.
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby trinicardinal on Tue Aug 28, 2012 7:42 am

jonty125 wrote:
Count Belisle wrote:I don't know if I'm suppose to post this here, but I was in The Underworld and Campin had posted in there today. We have lost campin today do to him being banned for being a multi. I don't know the whole story and I'm not going to speculate. Just I wish this didn't happen, he was a lot of fun in our user group, I don't know why people would have multi accounts ( I have 1 paid account and still can't keep up with all my games) he was a good player and I really liked playing in matches with him. :(

If I 'm not suppose to post this here just say so and I will delete it.


Campin is dead in this game. But put it in Mafia Discussions.


agreed about Campin - in the meantime I'm inclined to believe that Count has had rl issues which have hampered him. for now I'm going to take his claim at face value But He's not completely clear yet from me... Unvote

meanwhile vodean has also been relatively inactive and when he has posted has mostly posted one liners and he says in his last post that he's been reading but hasn't had anything to contribute but then basically complains that everyone else is just talking about math - by which I assume he means the speculation on the setup.

vodean wrote:ive been reading along, but havent really had anything to contribute. everyone is just discussing math.


aside from Count, vodean was the other person on my scumdar so I'm going to go ahead and VOTE: vodean
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby trinicardinal on Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:46 am

Count - I posted the infor in Mafia Discussion linking it to (and quoting) your post here. If you have any further info that you wish to add the post is here - viewtopic.php?f=609&t=177451&view=unread#unread
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby betiko on Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:02 am

for me voting for count has nothing to do with inactivity issues, real life problems don't explain scumminess in posting and timings, my vote stays but I am willing to hear other cases. right now i think the IB and vodean cases are not interesting at all in my opinion...
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby VioIet on Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:10 pm

jonty125 wrote:I've got no reason to not believe the claim. We have 8 days until deadline, so I think we need to push another case.


If Count Be-lisle turns out to be mafia, I know who to pursue next.





jonty125 wrote:Also, vio, vodean and samgrossy have only posted once today. I understand sam might be on vacation :?: but as far I'm aware the other two don't have a reason to be inactive


I haven't been inactive, as I have been checking the thread daily. I really didn't have a need to post again. I made my case and my vote is still on Count. No new posts or claims have changed my mind about that.
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby jonty125 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:26 pm

VioIet wrote:
jonty125 wrote:I've got no reason to not believe the claim. We have 8 days until deadline, so I think we need to push another case.


If Count Be-lisle turns out to be mafia, I know who to pursue next.


Well what else would you propose for us to do with 8 days?? We need to get information in the day, so power roles don't shoot blind at night.

jonty125 wrote:Also, vio, vodean and samgrossy have only posted once today. I understand sam might be on vacation :?: but as far I'm aware the other two don't have a reason to be inactive


Violet wrote:I haven't been inactive, as I have been checking the thread daily. I really didn't have a need to post again.


You may have been checking daily, but how can you prove it, unless you post daily?? And I thought activity was judged by posting?
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby vodean on Wed Aug 29, 2012 12:30 pm

does anyone else actually have another case? i feel like we could pressure vio, but only as a last resort, since i dont think that being inactive is very scummy, and have been inactive as well due to school starting
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby betiko on Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:51 pm

i am personally fine to lynch count just now, he's a VT in the worse case scenario and I elieve it's theonly real case. we have no power role out so no one to give us more info than night scenes... nothing is happening here since a few days anyways..
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby trinicardinal on Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:58 am

betiko wrote:i am personally fine to lynch count just now, he's a VT in the worse case scenario and I elieve it's theonly real case. we have no power role out so no one to give us more info than night scenes... nothing is happening here since a few days anyways..


This whole day has been pretty dead... there hasn't been as much discussion other than about count although I'll admit that he has seemed the best option... his claim of VT is not totally unexpected since we've already had VT's so we know for sure its a role around... It could be a fake claim especially since his explanation could, I suppose be a bit better. However, it appears to be his first game so I'm making some allowances for mistakes (I know I've made enough in my time) and while his explanation doesn't quite fit I'm still inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt on this one... for some reason he just seems genuinely confused about some things... I could be wrong but I'm still giving him the benefit of the doubt for now... although I have not completely cleared him yet. I'll leave my vote as is on vodean for now since he still isn't doing or saying much but I'll also be looking around for other cases.

In somewhat related but unrelated news tomorrow Trinidad & Tobago celebrates its 50th Anniversary of Independence... its going to be a big affair so my posting for the next couple days will be rather muted... but I'll do what I can.
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10:42:43 ‹Sackett58› fine, I'll take my panties elsewhere
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby betiko on Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:34 am

trinicardinal wrote:
betiko wrote:i am personally fine to lynch count just now, he's a VT in the worse case scenario and I elieve it's theonly real case. we have no power role out so no one to give us more info than night scenes... nothing is happening here since a few days anyways..


This whole day has been pretty dead... there hasn't been as much discussion other than about count although I'll admit that he has seemed the best option... his claim of VT is not totally unexpected since we've already had VT's so we know for sure its a role around... It could be a fake claim especially since his explanation could, I suppose be a bit better. However, it appears to be his first game so I'm making some allowances for mistakes (I know I've made enough in my time) and while his explanation doesn't quite fit I'm still inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt on this one... for some reason he just seems genuinely confused about some things... I could be wrong but I'm still giving him the benefit of the doubt for now... although I have not completely cleared him yet. I'll leave my vote as is on vodean for now since he still isn't doing or saying much but I'll also be looking around for other cases.

In somewhat related but unrelated news tomorrow Trinidad & Tobago celebrates its 50th Anniversary of Independence... its going to be a big affair so my posting for the next couple days will be rather muted... but I'll do what I can.


man there is always something to celebrate in trinidad! :D anyway, I didn't know it was count's first mafia game, but I know that I personally used a lot of that in the nightmare before christmas mafia we played together where i was scum... blaming my noobishness when i knew what i was doing..

this day really lacks of discussion......
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby trinicardinal on Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:54 am

betiko wrote:
trinicardinal wrote:
betiko wrote:i am personally fine to lynch count just now, he's a VT in the worse case scenario and I elieve it's theonly real case. we have no power role out so no one to give us more info than night scenes... nothing is happening here since a few days anyways..


This whole day has been pretty dead... there hasn't been as much discussion other than about count although I'll admit that he has seemed the best option... his claim of VT is not totally unexpected since we've already had VT's so we know for sure its a role around... It could be a fake claim especially since his explanation could, I suppose be a bit better. However, it appears to be his first game so I'm making some allowances for mistakes (I know I've made enough in my time) and while his explanation doesn't quite fit I'm still inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt on this one... for some reason he just seems genuinely confused about some things... I could be wrong but I'm still giving him the benefit of the doubt for now... although I have not completely cleared him yet. I'll leave my vote as is on vodean for now since he still isn't doing or saying much but I'll also be looking around for other cases.

In somewhat related but unrelated news tomorrow Trinidad & Tobago celebrates its 50th Anniversary of Independence... its going to be a big affair so my posting for the next couple days will be rather muted... but I'll do what I can.


man there is always something to celebrate in trinidad! :D anyway, I didn't know it was count's first mafia game, but I know that I personally used a lot of that in the nightmare before christmas mafia we played together where i was scum... blaming my noobishness when i knew what i was doing..

this day really lacks of discussion......


it certainly does lack discussion. and I hear you about the "noob play" I must look further in to his posts again... I think what really gets me is the fact that there is so little discussion ... its almost as if all we want to do is lynch someone but not really concerned with getting more information which is just going to make mafia's job easier imo. I suppose in some ways I'm as guilty as others... gotta make some time to look into some cases
10:16:35 ‹Ace Rimmer› haven't looked at work in ages
10:42:43 ‹Sackett58› fine, I'll take my panties elsewhere
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Re: JK9++ (10/13) Day 2

Postby jonty125 on Fri Aug 31, 2012 4:00 am

I think we might need some prods on people. IB still hasn't responded to my post.
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