Alphabet Mafia 2Day 6 no night deaths

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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby nagerous on Thu Oct 11, 2012 12:00 pm

aage wrote:
samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.


You make it sound so easy.
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby nagerous on Thu Oct 11, 2012 12:00 pm

aage wrote:
samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.


You make it sound so easy.
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby safariguy5 on Thu Oct 11, 2012 3:09 pm

aage wrote:
samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.

If that's the case, then scum plus cult could easily force no lynches every day.
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby aage on Thu Oct 11, 2012 3:27 pm

safariguy5 wrote:
aage wrote:
samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.

If that's the case, then scum plus cult could easily force no lynches every day.

It is the case, and you have been able to for quite some time. I'm surprised you hadn't proposed it yet yourself. I can only assume that doing this is not in your favor or the cult's, since you cannot both win. There are 10 people, four of which are scum, which means that none of us have the majority. As far as I can see we are at an impasse and we'll all probably put our foot down. Right now I can only suggest that we cripple the cult's ability to spread and decrease the number of mafia members in the group, since the reverse will not yield a good result for town. If we lynch the CL today, town loses and mafia wins. I cannot willingly allow that to happen. Therefore I suggest we vote saf as he is 100% known to be scum, meaning no party will either win or lose tonight.
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby aage on Thu Oct 11, 2012 3:28 pm

nagerous wrote:
aage wrote:
samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.


You make it sound so easy.

Thank you for your contribution.
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby samgrossy on Thu Oct 11, 2012 6:28 pm

aage wrote:
samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.


This is the first post in a while that makes a whole lotta sense, as I agree that we are close to lylo. Although, Nag is right is in that it is easier said than done.

So if there is a Doc, we need to protect you every night so that we can jail keep the CL if we can nail him. We then just play that strategy for a couple of days and we are back at even. But we NEED THE MAFIA to go along with it. If cult overruns town and mafia, its because we couldn't work together for now.

So the question is that you say that Saf is 100% scum. I am not sure that he is. I don't remember thinking his claims were that out of line or thinking he was so very suspicious. I know that there were pages of discussion about it, but I didn't see much out of line with it. I, on the other hand, think its almost a sure thing that RED is a better target than Saf. Can we come to a consensus quick? If we mislynch, we are done.
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby safariguy5 on Thu Oct 11, 2012 6:52 pm

I think that red is a better target for a lynch. At least I can use my night action to hunt for the cult leader. I think we all can agree that if we can lynch the cult leader, everyone will be better off.
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby samgrossy on Thu Oct 11, 2012 6:56 pm

I know this is crazy, but I would have expected you to say that. It just seems weird that you are saying this instead of reiterating some defense and then saying this. Unless you have completely given up and don't really care, it seems like this post is saying "Yup, I'm mafia too"
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby safariguy5 on Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:06 pm

samgrossy wrote:I know this is crazy, but I would have expected you to say that. It just seems weird that you are saying this instead of reiterating some defense and then saying this. Unless you have completely given up and don't really care, it seems like this post is saying "Yup, I'm mafia too"

What defense do I have really? I've roleclaimed, I've provided clearance for 2 people (which has been verified by those two people) and I now know who the possible CL's are. All anyone really has against me is an innocent result by the insane cop.

I'm just of the opinion that we should try to handle cult now. I'm not going anywhere, we can revisit the case on me tomorrow I think. At this point, I think I've been as helpful as I can be.
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby aage on Fri Oct 12, 2012 9:54 am

safariguy5 wrote:I think that red is a better target for a lynch. At least I can use my night action to hunt for the cult leader. I think we all can agree that if we can lynch the cult leader, everyone will be better off.

No, we cannot lynch Red because he is potentially the cult leader. I DO NOT WANT TO LYNCH THE CULT LEADER because then town will lose. We have to lynch scum every day now. I can only pray that all cult recruitees turn back to town once the CL dies, because if they don't we're screwed either way... but since that is my only hope of victory I have to go with that strategy. We cannot, I repeat we CANNOT, lynch the cult leader. He has to die during the night because we have to keep the amount of mafia low. Since this day is ending pretty soon we don't have much time to gather more information; in my opinion it is more prudent to lynch Safariguy today because we KNOW that he is scum (Jonty the insane cop got an innocent result on him during one of the first nights, and he claims to have used his cop-ability several times after that correctly which either means he's a cult recruitee who's VERY lucky in his guesses or he's a mafia member with the role (or without the role, and buddies who identified his "targets", either way he's mafia).


I've been waiting with pushing this agenda til the last minute because I wanted to jail the cult leader, and for that I needed to know who the cult leader was. Hippo, I suggest you use your vig powers on another member of the mafia members such as Sam (or on Red, I won't be jailing him tonight, that's for sure) because they will likely target you or me with their night kill.



2. Aage - jailer
4. Nagerous - claimed bulletproof towny
5. Hippo 2.0 - claimed town vig
7. Edocsil - claimed backup doc
8. Safariguy5 - claimed rolecop (but we know you're scum, saf)

11. SamGrossy - claimed nurse (but may still be mafia roleblocker)
12. redhedge47 - claimed PGO
14. ShaggyDan - claimed JOAT
15. DJFireside - busdriver
16. Lord Voldemort - govenor?

We have 5, potentially 6 people lying for sure (since the scumbag mod didn't tell us Vodean's role), since there are 4 mafia vowels, a U who I still don't know what role he has, and the CL.
We know DJ is a busdriver for sure (since Jonty wouldn't have gotten guilty otherwise), but we don't know his alignment.
We know Sam is a roleblocker for sure (since he definitely blocked someone during one of the first nights who didn't pop as cult upon death), but we don't know his alignment. We know I'm a jailer because I contacted Vodean during night 2 which he claimed in the wrong thread and for which he basically was modkilled. Hippo might have gotten the message I sent to SW during night 1 (I asked LSU to send it anyway if you hadn't gotten it yet). I know I'm town, but unfortunately you don't. We at least know that I'm not scum since lynching my own team would be a bad idea.
We basically know Hippo has a killing power because he knows his attack on Sam was blocked during night 3.

We have no hard evidence on the rest of you. All I can say is that I trust Hippo to be/have been town aligned (since there was another NK during the night he tried to kill Sam) so that leaves two more slots for town. Busdriver is essentially a scummy role so I'd assume DJfire is also scum (that puts it at 3 scum: Saf, Sam and DJ). Leaves one more scum, one Ms. U (whoever or whatever that is) and one CL among five people. 60% chance of hitting non-town, so I'm happy. First we have to ensure town survival though, which means we have to lynch Safariguy.

The rules state that I cannot directly quote PM's I received from the mod so I'm reluctant to copy-paste the PM's I received from Strike Wolf and Vodean.
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby nagerous on Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:48 am

Sorry guys, I'm going to be gone for the next week and most likely won't have internet access - but will try and check in from time to time
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby edocsil on Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:44 am

Aage, you foolishly assume you know what will happen to the cult when the CL dies. Players are just as likely to return to old alignments as anything else. So you then take a plan of action that will ensure the cults victory if you are recruited. BAD.
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby samgrossy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 3:41 pm

I am all aboard with Aage's train of thought on this with the slight exception that if we lynch the CL, I don't see it being a drawback right now.

But, UNVOTE, VOTE SAF
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby edocsil on Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:45 pm

So can no one do any fucking math? This is why I hate cult games more of the time.
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Re: Alphabet Mafia 2 Mr. T is dead. Day 5 has begun

Postby samgrossy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:23 pm

edocsil wrote:So can no one do any fucking math? This is why I hate cult games more of the time.



The problem with the "effing math" is that we don't know much of it. We know that cult exists, and the most that cult can have is 5 (1 leader and 4 cult) So that's half the players left at most.

Where the math gets tricky is that it could be possible for CL to recruit both Mafia and Town. So, there is a possibility of 5 Mafia members (all the vowels) so that's a max of 10 players not town. So I guess its possible that everyone is lying to everyone else and now this game is playing itself as Mafia vs Cult only. I know this is NOT true as I am Mr. N, Town Nurse. And it appears that Aage is town too, so it is easy to assume that there are at least 2 Townies left. So, the best guess is somewhere between 5 and 8 bad guys (either cult and/or scum). Now there are some funny scenarios, where the mod is not indicating whether the poeple being killed are cult in their death scene. If that's the case, it possible that we have lynched a couple just by mistake, aren't being told, and maybe the cult is not as big as we think. I am kinda hoping for that scenario.

But now the rest is conjecture. I know it's probable for the mod to not indicate when town officially can't win because the cult and mafia would have to play out to see who wins their battle. Town may be at that point already. I may be the lone townie stuck between the cult and mafia battling to win.

But anyway, you could be talking about "Effing" vote math, too. In which case, its important for the Mafia to lynch a Cult and the Cult to lynch a Mafia, so town should be able to get a majority to lynch no matter what. If Saf is Mafia, then the cult should vote him. And lynch him. If Saf is Cult, Scum should vote him and we get a lynch. So if you are talking about vote math, then we are likely to be able to get a majority. The only case I can think of us not getting enough votes to lynch Saf is if he is in the cult and there is only one mafia member left because of recruitment. 4 townies, 1 mafia, and 5 cult. But then we are beyond lylo and the game is over anyway Obviously this works if Saf is mafia and there is one cult member, but that scenario is highly unlikely as I have role blocked someone different every night and I believe Aage has too. Therefore, cult is probably at more than 1 (some may have been lynched or killed and the That assumes everyone votes. We also may get a no lynch just because we don't have everyone voting. Also, it could be that the players turned cult can't vote. That would be frustrating.

Okay - So what math are you asking about us doing? I am willing to tackle any math.
Or maybe you are just frustrated about this game and needed to vent. If that's the case, sorry for the overly long post about numbers.
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