Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - Endgame

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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby gregwolf121 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:55 am

okay, so at this point i would agree that actions are needed,

droz did you watch jonty
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby pancakemix on Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:14 pm

F1fth wrote:Vote Strike based on Ockham's Razor.

Are we really expected to believe that for no reason at all, we had a busdriver happen to target two scum on the night that a cop investigates one of them? Possibly, but I can think of no earthy reason why soundman and rishaed would be "chosen" unless strike already knew what they were. A random selection just doesn't explain it in on Night 4... especially from a mafia vet like strike.

I highly doubt that strike has a busdriving power at all. In fact, if strike were scum it would be trivial to throw rishaed under the bus to give both soundman and himself some credibility and a couple extra nights to make recruits. That's right, I'm calling strike out as the recruiter.

@DRoZ - I would really like to know if your action was successful last night.


I agree with this, though I wouldn't be so certain about him being the recruiter. Might you explain that jump? Or is it just what seems most likely to you?

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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby / on Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:15 pm

Rodion wrote: I suggest Strike and Droz claim their actions before Safari claims his.


Safari has been gone since two hours after night 6 began, I suppose he could have gotten an action in, and it may be worth delaying the day to hear from him, but we can't rely on it.

I also agree that a mafia doc is a small loss with the town vig already dead, roleblocker seems to have been a key role to mafia strategy.
It also seems less likely that droz is scum since he had lost his vote and was blocked, presumably by Soundman on night four/day five and night five/day six.
That is, of course if we assume the vote steal/roleblock are connected actions like doc/roleblock in the case of a jailkeeper.

I would say that, by evidence; strike is plausibly scum, and aage is almost certainly scum.
Let us not forget that aage was roleblocked on night 5/day 6 too, but his vote wasn't stolen, that night the demon's attacks mysteriously missed their mark, a flavor that sounds more like roleblocking than doc save in my opinion.

If strike is a more likely recruiter than aage though, I am willing to lynch him first.

vote strike for now
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby safariguy5 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:27 pm

I'm here. I'd like to hear Droz's action before I claim mine.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby Rodion on Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:36 pm

safariguy5 wrote:I'm here. I'd like to hear Droz's action before I claim mine.


I'd also wait for Strike's if I were you.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby strike wolf on Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:57 pm

Give me one plausible reason that would point to me being recruiter beyond Firth calling me out as a recruiter with no other evidence than that there is a recruiter in the game. All you have on me is that I claim to have switched two mafia which has been found convenient by a few people. I gave a reason why it would be stupid as a recruiter for me to take that gamble.

If you want my opinion, I believe both aage and doom are anti-town and I'm going to say that either doom has been recruited since night 1 or he is the godfather. why? Because the SK argument beyond being exceedingly unlikely with the limited kills seems more of a distraction than anything legitimate. Secondly, he has pressed a false dilemma in that he has been proven town by the cop. essentially arguing that he is town because if he was mafia he would have to show up guilty. we know there are at least two exceptions to that. 1. He is human and has been recruited since he was investigated. or 2. He is evil and has some investigative proof ability ala godfather. now obviously no role whose objedtive does not involve getfing themselves lynched is going to self incriminate but there is a big difference between pointing out unlikelihood of a scenario and toting it around like it is an absolute scenario.
Aage simply because of the unlikelihood of two doctors, evidence that he is not the doctor and previously stated arguments.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby Rodion on Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:12 am

Don't get me wrong: if you're indeed a town busdriver I think you've played pretty well and just got unlucky with the Soundman save. At one point, your top 4 list of scumreads matched mine perfectly (Aage, JG, Vodean and Jonty), so this isn't really about saying you've made mistakes/slips. You got on a list that's been narrowed down and somewhat has you at 66% scum plus you saved the blocker/stealer. Strike, do you understand why we reckon you're more likely than Safari to be mafia? I'd like Droz and you to claim before Saf because I trust Saf the most. Can you comply?

For the record, I don't trust Yoshi as well (slight chance of being godfather + reasonable chance of having been subverted), but he is not priority until we get one or two lynches on Droz, Aage and/or you.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby DoomYoshi on Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:30 am

Well, the careful amongst you will notice that my "SK" hypothesis had 2 components. Option b was that since town was looking in the wrong direction, mafia would capitalize on this and speed up the mislynches as much as possible. By refuting the thought of an SK, and by aage and strike refuting it so vehemently, I think it narrows down that it was indeed the correct interpretation.

Interesting that both Rodion and strike have ruled me out as being the recruiter. I think we need a list of possible recruitment candidates and possible recruitees.

Strike is definitely scum. His last post indicates this, since he doesn't seem interested in finding out who the recruiter is.

If I was mafia, I would have recruited saf last night, unless I was worried the watcher was watching saf. But if the watcher can just be blocked anyways, there is 99% chance that saf was recruited.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby strike wolf on Sat Jan 26, 2013 1:36 pm

"Strike is definitely scum. His last post indicates this, since he doesn't seem interested in finding out who the recruiter is."

Don't put words in my mouth. I never said I wasn't concerned with finding the recruiter. I have said that I have been switching humans over angels because I believe that the recruiter is more dangerous than the killer. What I don't pretend is to be able to do is find an imagined reason to say ____ is probably recruiter over someone else. I believe you are more likely to be godfather because of how you have handled getting an innocent vote but that's because being the Godfather would allow you to be shown as innocent on investigation. If you have any tells that you would think make the recruiter stand out over other mafia please share.

As far as the SK idea, neither part seems likely at all and I stick to what I said as looking to be little more than a distraction.

As far as my actions, yes sorry, I was going to post them last night and forgot to while making my post.

Night 3: Rodion (Mr. Squirrel) w/aage

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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby DoomYoshi on Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:07 pm

"Neither part seems likely"

Ok. So with 7 players on the list alive, and 2 more mafia, town has a 5/7 chance of mislynch.

By killing jonty, we now have only a 2/6 chance of mislynch.

Why would mafia lower the chance of mislynch unless they were convinced town was going to lynch the "wrong" people?
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby strike wolf on Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:31 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:"Neither part seems likely"

Ok. So with 7 players on the list alive, and 2 more mafia, town has a 5/7 chance of mislynch.

By killing jonty, we now have only a 2/6 chance of mislynch.

Why would mafia lower the chance of mislynch unless they were convinced town was going to lynch the "wrong" people?


Could it be because Jonty was an angel who had gained everyone's trust and also represented a very strong threat to mafia? He had a role that could turn recruited townies back into regular townies. We still don't know how recruited townies work or what information they have. A reformed townie could even theoretically reveal how recruitment works or (unlikely) maybe even mafia members. If I had been mafia than yes I would have supported killing Jonty.

Also please stop taking yourself off of the list. Just because you have an innocent result from the cop does not mean you are proven town. I am saying it now. I am 90% sure that Doomyoshi is the Godfather. As far as him clearing vio, either he knows that Vio is still town and trying to link up with someone he knows is a townie or at some point vio was recruited by the mafia and he is protecting her by placing the 100% proven town label on her.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby DoomYoshi on Sat Jan 26, 2013 4:49 pm

strike wolf wrote:
DoomYoshi wrote:"Neither part seems likely"

Ok. So with 7 players on the list alive, and 2 more mafia, town has a 5/7 chance of mislynch.

By killing jonty, we now have only a 2/6 chance of mislynch.

Why would mafia lower the chance of mislynch unless they were convinced town was going to lynch the "wrong" people?


Could it be because Jonty was an angel who had gained everyone's trust and also represented a very strong threat to mafia? He had a role that could turn recruited townies back into regular townies. We still don't know how recruited townies work or what information they have. A reformed townie could even theoretically reveal how recruitment works or (unlikely) maybe even mafia members. If I had been mafia than yes I would have supported killing Jonty.

Also please stop taking yourself off of the list. Just because you have an innocent result from the cop does not mean you are proven town. I am saying it now. I am 90% sure that Doomyoshi is the Godfather. As far as him clearing vio, either he knows that Vio is still town and trying to link up with someone he knows is a townie or at some point vio was recruited by the mafia and he is protecting her by placing the 100% proven town label on her.


I didn't take myself off the list. I just switched the numbers. I meant 4/6.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby NoSurvivors on Sat Jan 26, 2013 6:06 pm

Okay I am back. Sorry bout that, exams (hopefully) went well :lol:.

Now, from what I read up, I do believe that Vio is town. It does seem to make sense that we either lynch doom or strike today-- followed by possibly aage, depending on how the lynch turns out.

The reason being is that theyre (obviously) fighting. We have to make a collective decision. I am also leaning toward a strike lynch, because its unlikely that he would have switched the two if both were mafia. Also he is doing too much defenbding of himself. He seems way too jumpy. Also, doom has been seen by a cop as innocent, and since there is only a 1/15 shot at him being GF, I will go with the odds.

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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby DoomYoshi on Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:10 pm

aage, did you say you protected me last night?
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby DoomYoshi on Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:12 pm

Sry 4 double:

Yesterday I softclaimed angel. Rodion can investigate me and I can't claim to be human. That will verify me 100%
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby edocsil on Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:22 pm

I'll prod Droz if he hasn't posted by tomorrow.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby Rodion on Sat Jan 26, 2013 9:34 pm

We ain't lynching Strike or anyone else until we hear from Droz and Saf.

Yoshi, are you claiming to be Raphael or the 7th and final angel? And where exactly did you softclaim?
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby safariguy5 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 9:44 pm

As my WC hints at, I don't think angels can be recruited or subverted. Humans can. So to say that you "would have recruited me" last night means nothing because I don't think the cult can recruit me.

Ready to claim my action when Droz does.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D6 17/25

Postby DoomYoshi on Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:49 am

DoomYoshi wrote:In this post aage reveals he is not an angel, and that humans are probably not town:

I think it should be mentioned that we shouldn't disregard the possibility that humans and angels have different win conditions, since if the subvert-thing is in the angel role pm but not in the human role pm. It's not in my role pm anyway, I found out about it through Lsu's and jgordon's posts, so I suppose it is also not in Jak's (or violet's, or other claimed humans') role pms.


In this post (after several of defending droz), aage admits he does not think droz is scum:
aage wrote:
aage wrote:
DoomYoshi wrote:@aage: what? Where do we have proof that he was roleblocked?

Exactly. But if he wasn't roleblocked and he was mafia, it would be pretty strange to claim to have been roleblocked, as I explained in my previous post. Maybe I should have stressed that with "claimed to have been roleblocked" I meant "lie about being roleblocked", I thought that was obvious.
All we know is that his vote is gone, so obviously he wasn't lying about that. That lends some credibility to his roleblock-claim by my book.

@SW, see my reply to DY. I think you misinterpreted what I said.

ebwop

So following that reasoning, claiming to have been blocked if he were a mafia watcher whilst in fact he wasn't blocked would make no sense to do... hence we can conclude that either he is town and lying (which is okay, really, since he's town and I won't be voting him) or he is any alignment and was genuinely roleblocked, and therefore I see no reason to suspect him. Watcher is a pretty useful role to keep alive, and I'm not at all convinced that he must be scum.


In this post, aage admits that there is "no" case on jonty. I took a leap and logic and assumed that meant he thinks jonty is not scum (i.e. is town).
aage wrote:
jonty125 wrote:
F1fth wrote:It would be nice to hear from Safari, but in the interest of moving things along I'm going to Vote Jonty.



My crime?

Being on the list :roll:


Based on the first post, and his claim of human, and his pretend denial of defending both droz and jonty, I am now going into the 90%+ range of scum with aage, compared to 99%+ range with jonty.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby DoomYoshi on Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:36 am

Is it just me, or is there an echo in here?
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby Rodion on Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:55 am

It looks like everyone is waiting for Droz and then Saf.

I failed to understand your softclaim of angel, by the way. While I'm at that, I don't understand how an angel would say things like "if I were mafia, I'd have recruited Saf" when Saf has shown angels have knowledge that only humans are subvertable. At this point, I think you're either a godfather that would pass my investigation or a subverted saint that is trying to get D8 lynched to buy the demons more time. I think the second scenario is more likely. Anyway, you don't get lynched before we get through with the Aage/Droz/Strike situation.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby DoomYoshi on Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:26 pm

Rodion wrote:It looks like everyone is waiting for Droz and then Saf.

I failed to understand your softclaim of angel, by the way. While I'm at that, I don't understand how an angel would say things like "if I were mafia, I'd have recruited Saf" when Saf has shown angels have knowledge that only humans are subvertable. At this point, I think you're either a godfather that would pass my investigation or a subverted saint that is trying to get D8 lynched to buy the demons more time. I think the second scenario is more likely. Anyway, you don't get lynched before we get through with the Aage/Droz/Strike situation.


I was listing aage as scummy because a) he claimed human and b) he said humans are not town. Why would I call out aage on that if I was a human myself?

Also, saf released this knowledge just 4 posts ago, so it hardly influences my initial claim that he would be the claim target. Furthermore, I don't have his character written down, so I didn't remember he was an angel, just that he was a superJOAT.

I am still waiting on an answer from aage: did he protect me last night?
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby NoSurvivors on Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:54 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:
Rodion wrote:It looks like everyone is waiting for Droz and then Saf.

I failed to understand your softclaim of angel, by the way. While I'm at that, I don't understand how an angel would say things like "if I were mafia, I'd have recruited Saf" when Saf has shown angels have knowledge that only humans are subvertable. At this point, I think you're either a godfather that would pass my investigation or a subverted saint that is trying to get D8 lynched to buy the demons more time. I think the second scenario is more likely. Anyway, you don't get lynched before we get through with the Aage/Droz/Strike situation.


I was listing aage as scummy because a) he claimed human and b) he said humans are not town. Why would I call out aage on that if I was a human myself?

Also, saf released this knowledge just 4 posts ago, so it hardly influences my initial claim that he would be the claim target. Furthermore, I don't have his character written down, so I didn't remember he was an angel, just that he was a superJOAT.

I am still waiting on an answer from aage: did he protect me last night?


Some humans are town, lol.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby aage on Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:16 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:I am still waiting on an answer from aage: did he protect me last night?

Obviously, yes. I already said that. Do you really need confirmation from "I almost regret protecting your ass last night"?

Seriously, I appreciate your being confirmed town and all, but you've been asking mostly irrelevant questions for the past few days.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D7 15/25

Postby DoomYoshi on Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:15 pm

Ok, full claim. I am the town roleblocker. I roleblocked Aage the last 2 nights. Since he wasn't told about the roleblock last night, he didn't protect me.ergo, scum.
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