Forum

by **gregwolf121** on Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:55 am

okay, so at this point i would agree that actions are needed,

droz did you watch jonty

by **pancakemix** on Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:14 pm

F1fth wrote:Vote Strike based on Ockham's Razor.

Are we really expected to believe that for no reason at all, we had a busdriver happen to target two scum on the night that a cop investigates one of them? Possibly, but I can think of no earthy reason why soundman and rishaed would be "chosen" unless strike already knew what they were. A random selection just doesn't explain it in on Night 4... especially from a mafia vet like strike.

I highly doubt that strike has a busdriving power at all. In fact, if strike were scum it would be trivial to throw rishaed under the bus to give both soundman and himself some credibility and a couple extra nights to make recruits. That's right, I'm calling strike out as the recruiter.

@DRoZ - I would really like to know if your action was successful last night.

I agree with this, though I wouldn't be so certain about him being the recruiter. Might you explain that jump? Or is it just what seems most likely to you?

Vote Strike

by / on Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:15 pm

Rodion wrote: I suggest Strike and Droz claim their actions before Safari claims his.

Safari has been gone since two hours after night 6 began, I suppose he could have gotten an action in, and it may be worth delaying the day to hear from him, but we can't rely on it.

I also agree that a mafia doc is a small loss with the town vig already dead, roleblocker seems to have been a key role to mafia strategy.
It also seems less likely that droz is scum since he had lost his vote and was blocked, presumably by Soundman on night four/day five and night five/day six.
That is, of course if we assume the vote steal/roleblock are connected actions like doc/roleblock in the case of a jailkeeper.

I would say that, by evidence; strike is plausibly scum, and aage is almost certainly scum.
Let us not forget that aage was roleblocked on night 5/day 6 too, but his vote wasn't stolen, that night the demon's attacks mysteriously missed their mark, a flavor that sounds more like roleblocking than doc save in my opinion.

If strike is a more likely recruiter than aage though, I am willing to lynch him first.

vote strike for now

by **safariguy5** on Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:27 pm

I'm here. I'd like to hear Droz's action before I claim mine.

by **Rodion** on Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:36 pm

safariguy5 wrote:I'm here. I'd like to hear Droz's action before I claim mine.

I'd also wait for Strike's if I were you.

by **strike wolf** on Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:57 pm

Give me one plausible reason that would point to me being recruiter beyond Firth calling me out as a recruiter with no other evidence than that there is a recruiter in the game. All you have on me is that I claim to have switched two mafia which has been found convenient by a few people. I gave a reason why it would be stupid as a recruiter for me to take that gamble.

If you want my opinion, I believe both aage and doom are anti-town and I'm going to say that either doom has been recruited since night 1 or he is the godfather. why? Because the SK argument beyond being exceedingly unlikely with the limited kills seems more of a distraction than anything legitimate. Secondly, he has pressed a false dilemma in that he has been proven town by the cop. essentially arguing that he is town because if he was mafia he would have to show up guilty. we know there are at least two exceptions to that. 1. He is human and has been recruited since he was investigated. or 2. He is evil and has some investigative proof ability ala godfather. now obviously no role whose objedtive does not involve getfing themselves lynched is going to self incriminate but there is a big difference between pointing out unlikelihood of a scenario and toting it around like it is an absolute scenario.
Aage simply because of the unlikelihood of two doctors, evidence that he is not the doctor and previously stated arguments.

by **Rodion** on Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:12 am

Don't get me wrong: if you're indeed a town busdriver I think you've played pretty well and just got unlucky with the Soundman save. At one point, your top 4 list of scumreads matched mine perfectly (Aage, JG, Vodean and Jonty), so this isn't really about saying you've made mistakes/slips. You got on a list that's been narrowed down and somewhat has you at 66% scum plus you saved the blocker/stealer. Strike, do you understand why we reckon you're more likely than Safari to be mafia? I'd like Droz and you to claim before Saf because I trust Saf the most. Can you comply?

For the record, I don't trust Yoshi as well (slight chance of being godfather + reasonable chance of having been subverted), but he is not priority until we get one or two lynches on Droz, Aage and/or you.

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:30 am

Well, the careful amongst you will notice that my "SK" hypothesis had 2 components. Option b was that since town was looking in the wrong direction, mafia would capitalize on this and speed up the mislynches as much as possible. By refuting the thought of an SK, and by aage and strike refuting it so vehemently, I think it narrows down that it was indeed the correct interpretation.

Interesting that both Rodion and strike have ruled me out as being the recruiter. I think we need a list of possible recruitment candidates and possible recruitees.

Strike is definitely scum. His last post indicates this, since he doesn't seem interested in finding out who the recruiter is.

If I was mafia, I would have recruited saf last night, unless I was worried the watcher was watching saf. But if the watcher can just be blocked anyways, there is 99% chance that saf was recruited.

by **strike wolf** on Sat Jan 26, 2013 1:36 pm

"Strike is definitely scum. His last post indicates this, since he doesn't seem interested in finding out who the recruiter is."

Don't put words in my mouth. I never said I wasn't concerned with finding the recruiter. I have said that I have been switching humans over angels because I believe that the recruiter is more dangerous than the killer. What I don't pretend is to be able to do is find an imagined reason to say ____ is probably recruiter over someone else. I believe you are more likely to be godfather because of how you have handled getting an innocent vote but that's because being the Godfather would allow you to be shown as innocent on investigation. If you have any tells that you would think make the recruiter stand out over other mafia please share.

As far as the SK idea, neither part seems likely at all and I stick to what I said as looking to be little more than a distraction.

As far as my actions, yes sorry, I was going to post them last night and forgot to while making my post.

Night 3: Rodion (Mr. Squirrel) w/aage

Night 5: Myself w/Pancakemix

Night 6: Iliad w/Aage

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:07 pm

"Neither part seems likely"

Ok. So with 7 players on the list alive, and 2 more mafia, town has a 5/7 chance of mislynch.

By killing jonty, we now have only a 2/6 chance of mislynch.

Why would mafia lower the chance of mislynch unless they were convinced town was going to lynch the "wrong" people?

by **strike wolf** on Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:31 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:"Neither part seems likely"

Ok. So with 7 players on the list alive, and 2 more mafia, town has a 5/7 chance of mislynch.

By killing jonty, we now have only a 2/6 chance of mislynch.

Why would mafia lower the chance of mislynch unless they were convinced town was going to lynch the "wrong" people?

Could it be because Jonty was an angel who had gained everyone's trust and also represented a very strong threat to mafia? He had a role that could turn recruited townies back into regular townies. We still don't know how recruited townies work or what information they have. A reformed townie could even theoretically reveal how recruitment works or (unlikely) maybe even mafia members. If I had been mafia than yes I would have supported killing Jonty.

Also please stop taking yourself off of the list. Just because you have an innocent result from the cop does not mean you are proven town. I am saying it now. I am 90% sure that Doomyoshi is the Godfather. As far as him clearing vio, either he knows that Vio is still town and trying to link up with someone he knows is a townie or at some point vio was recruited by the mafia and he is protecting her by placing the 100% proven town label on her.

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Jan 26, 2013 4:49 pm

strike wolf wrote:
DoomYoshi wrote:"Neither part seems likely"

Ok. So with 7 players on the list alive, and 2 more mafia, town has a 5/7 chance of mislynch.

By killing jonty, we now have only a 2/6 chance of mislynch.

Why would mafia lower the chance of mislynch unless they were convinced town was going to lynch the "wrong" people?

Could it be because Jonty was an angel who had gained everyone's trust and also represented a very strong threat to mafia? He had a role that could turn recruited townies back into regular townies. We still don't know how recruited townies work or what information they have. A reformed townie could even theoretically reveal how recruitment works or (unlikely) maybe even mafia members. If I had been mafia than yes I would have supported killing Jonty.

Also please stop taking yourself off of the list. Just because you have an innocent result from the cop does not mean you are proven town. I am saying it now. I am 90% sure that Doomyoshi is the Godfather. As far as him clearing vio, either he knows that Vio is still town and trying to link up with someone he knows is a townie or at some point vio was recruited by the mafia and he is protecting her by placing the 100% proven town label on her.

I didn't take myself off the list. I just switched the numbers. I meant 4/6.

by **NoSurvivors** on Sat Jan 26, 2013 6:06 pm

Okay I am back. Sorry bout that, exams (hopefully) went well :lol:

.

Now, from what I read up, I do believe that Vio is town. It does seem to make sense that we either lynch doom or strike today-- followed by possibly aage, depending on how the lynch turns out.

The reason being is that theyre (obviously) fighting. We have to make a collective decision. I am also leaning toward a strike lynch, because its unlikely that he would have switched the two if both were mafia. Also he is doing too much defenbding of himself. He seems way too jumpy. Also, doom has been seen by a cop as innocent, and since there is only a 1/15 shot at him being GF, I will go with the odds.

vote strike