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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 13/25

Postby strike wolf on Wed Feb 27, 2013 4:37 pm

edocsil wrote:Jak replaces Iliad. I'm also posting in the replacements to see if I can find one for droz.


Technically id rather give blake the boot, been gone longer. I suppose kicking them both outmod killingboth isnt out of the question. I just hate modkills
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 13/25

Postby / on Wed Feb 27, 2013 7:27 pm

jak111 wrote:
But speaking of inactives / wants an inactive dead yet doesn't worry about the above two? Call me a conspiracy theorist but I smell something fishy going on. But once DRoZ flips then I can better assess where /'s loyalties lie.

Fair enough, I had no idea who was inactive, I'm not really keeping track day to day, I simply noted the last page iliad posted on; page 70 was wayyyyyy back in December, while 20 days ago is a mere 4 pages back.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 13/25

Postby jak111 on Wed Feb 27, 2013 8:13 pm

Understandable logic, this game has been dying off, tomorrow after this lynch I will make sure everyone is active.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 13/25

Postby VioIet on Thu Feb 28, 2013 2:45 am

DoomYoshi wrote:I would post, but I have quite literally, nothing to say.


This seems to be a confession. I am actually in favor of Droz being modkilled so that we will be able to vote Doom off.

And Slash's point about aage having been the recruiter seems right on.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 13/25

Postby edocsil on Thu Feb 28, 2013 3:58 pm

Droz ~ Augustine of Canterbury Saint ~ Watcher has been modkilled for inactivity. Deadline has been extended to 1 week from now, barring further modkills. Also prodding blake.

12 alive 7 to lynch
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby Rodion on Thu Feb 28, 2013 4:21 pm

Well, Chap used his power N2. I'm still uncertain on how the recruiting mechanic works, but could it be that the 4 players were 3 demons and 1 N1/N2 subverted saint?

There are many options at the moment, because we could be looking for 2 more people (if you consider Aage was not "caught" in Chap's power due to being GF AND that Droz was recruited after N2), 1 more people (if you consider one OR the other thing) or 0 more people (if you consider neither). There is also the fact we KNOW Yoshi to be anti-town, but more than 90% likely not a demon.

I believe my call now would be to lynch Yoshi, making sure nobody will roleblock Saf (unless, of course, we can find another demon).

Since we have 1 week, we can still discuss things. I suggest that we stop concentrating on the list (it has already found 5 people: Vodean, Soundman, Aage, Droz and Yoshi) and start placing all players on an equal-footing "suspicionwise" (other than angel claims, like Saf and Greg).
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby DoomYoshi on Thu Feb 28, 2013 4:49 pm

Now that droz is dead, I can reveal my action last night. I got a cop-investigate, and I investigated droz. He is guilty.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby jak111 on Thu Feb 28, 2013 6:48 pm

So DRoZ was truthful, but whether or not he was part of the original list is questionable.

But as to get more information from the remaining left fmpov: PCM, Rodion, blake, NoS, /, F1fth (since Greg is angel).

Vote NoS, Time to wake the dead from their nap.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby gregwolf121 on Thu Feb 28, 2013 7:33 pm

doom why did you wait until after he was dead to tell us this
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby Rodion on Thu Feb 28, 2013 7:41 pm

Doom was caught back in january.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby Rodion on Thu Feb 28, 2013 7:42 pm

Rodion wrote:Doom was caught back in january.


As in we know Doom's anti-town since last month.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby VioIet on Fri Mar 01, 2013 12:42 am

Why was "Droz ~ Augustine of Canterbury Saint ~ Watcher," listed in Red? I thought Red was the mafia's color, and Blue was the Town's color.

And Yoshi's actions make no sense. I think we need to vote him off now.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby strike wolf on Fri Mar 01, 2013 12:18 pm

Normally I'd probably agree with Rodion about lynching Doom (If for no other reason to prevent Safari from being interfered with) but I'm not sure that's an option. Frankly we don't have to kill the subverted to win and if we lynch Doom we're probably only slowing mafia down which I'm not sure we can afford right now.

I've been thinking about it and I don't usually like playing the mod but the only reason I can think that Edocsil would choose to lynch a subverted townie over another player is A. both were non-town or B. mafia is already very close to winning and modkilling town would either guarantee mafia's win or all but guarantee it). considering that Jak's posts strike me as town aligned and the sheer number of nights mafia has had to recruit (even if we have the optimistic outcome that they were only sucessful 3 out of 7 nights + whoever was recruited upon Aage's death (the scene seemed to hint at more than one player being recruited.) -Dr oZ we are dealing with at least 4 probably more anti-town players.) I believe that the latter option is more likely. We could already be in a situation where mafia already had the numbers to win coming into the day but were unable to act upon them do to inactivity or disorganization between the demons and Subverted humans (Likely with Jonty's ability it is unlikely that the subverted humans actually know much if anything about the mafia. What mafia may know about the subverteds is more wifomy). Coming into this day we could have been looking at a 8 town vs 6 mafia, 7 town (including Jak's extra vote) vs 7 mafia vote margin or maybe even a 6 town 8 mafia. In the latter case we'd probably already be doomed regardless, so I'll focus on the first two (not including any influence my action may have):

8 Vs 6:

-Dr Oz modkilled. 8 vs 5.
-Lynch Doom 8 v 4.
best case scenario (Assuming Mafia actions are sucessful):
-Safari kills the recruiter (8 v. 3 possible town victory pending if there's any other remaining demons.)
-mafia kill is sucessful (7 v. 3)
-mafia recruits human who isn't Jak. (6 v 4)
or Mafia recruits jak (5 v. 5)
9 alive tomorrow 5 to lynch

Second best case
same except recruiter is still alive.

Neutral case:
-safari does not kill anyone. Chooses investigate...maybe sucessful may not be.
-Mafia kill is sucessful (7 v. 4)
-Mafia recruits someone other than Jak (6 v. 5)
or mafia recruits Jak (5 v. 6)
10 alive tomorrow 6 to lynch

Worst case scenario:
Safari uses his kill but hits town (7 v 4)
Mafia Kill is sucessful (6 v. 4)
Mafia sucessfully recruits someone other than Jak (5 v. 5)
Mafia sucessfully recruits Jak (4 v. 6)

9 alive tomorrow 5 to lynch

Considering we can't say that Mafia's kill attempt will be or will not be sucessful than if we assume an 8 v. 5 (as it stands now situation), I would lean towards doom being the right decision for lynch.

7 v. 7 scenarios:

-Dr Oz Killed 7 v. 6
-Doom killed 7 v. 5

best case with assumed sucessful mafia actions:
-Safari hits anti-town 7 v. 4
-Mafia kill 6 v. 4
-mafia recruit 5 v. 5
-or jak recruited 4 v. 6

9 alive tomorrow 5 to lynch

neutral:
-Safari doesn't kill anyone. Investigates instead. 7 v. 5
-mafia kill 6 v. 5
-mafia recruit 5 v. 6
-jak recruited 4 v. 7

10 alive tomorrow 6 to lynch

worst:
-Safari kills town 6 v 5
-mafia kill 5 v 5
-mafia recruit 4 v 6
-jak recruited 3 v 7

9 alive tomorrow 5 to lynch

Under these circumstances, Doom would not be the best option.

Considering the number of nights Mafia has had to recruit...I have to assume that the 7 v. 7 option is very likely and I am leaning towards saying we can't afford to lynch anyone other than the recruiter today.

my list of possibles would be:

1. Firth-I know this is a bit OMgusy but I do feel that he presented the case against me both yesterday and today but never really followed through with it yesterday (At the very least did not make effort to rebut my rebuttal to his argument) And today backed off early in favor of the more popular lynch option.
2/3. NoSurvivors/pancakemix-more lack of town vibes than real scum vibes.
4. /-more town vibes than anything but he is one of the unconfirmed if I am not mistaken.
5. Blakebowling-ability proven. Leaning town but no guarantee. Whether he's been subverted or not would be a different story.
6. Jak-Leaning town. Secret vote was shown to exist day 1.

An aside to Violet: Presumably it was red because he had been subverted.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby F1fth on Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:15 pm

I am not Firth, he was a different player. :) I am F1fth or Fifth.

Have you given any consideration to the possibility that Aage was indeed the recruiter as / mentioned? He even provided evidence based on the fact that Aage's death seemed to cause a last spate of recruitments.

Admittedly, it was not something that I had considered until he brought it up but it makes a lot of sense. None of the demon roles discovered this game have had passive abilities and all have been powerful. Therefore, I find it less likely then that Aage's only ability was to mislead investigations. Further (apologies for this metagaming), if scum were to lose their vital recruiter role early on due to a lucky investigation, it would be very difficult for them to recover given all the powerful town roles. Then it would make sense their recruiter has a bit of protection such as investigative immunity.

What I'm getting at is a surer lynch of a subverted saint might not be a terrible idea if the only other option is to roll the dice and possibly take out a townie.

As for your point about myself...

I didn't follow up on your rebuttal because it was a WIFOM and there was nothing more to be said. Your defense amounted to "If I were scum, I wouldn't take the risk to give Soundman and myself credibility by leading town to Rishaed." Was I supposed to say "Yes you would, liar!"? It would have been completely unhelpful to town but supposedly it would make me look less scummy. I'm a pragmatist, and how I appear be damned... I'm trying to find scum.

That said, what is it that you're accusing me of at the heart of matters? To me, it seems like it is my indecisiveness on whether you or DRoZ were one of the last scum on the list. I'll readily admit I moved back and forth on that one. I don't have all the answers, but if you'll note I ended up making the correct choice in the end.

Of the rest of your list, I would most highly suspect pancakemix. He's been playing "yes man" to my accusations against you (even when I was somewhat unsure about them) and it seems as if he's trying to bandwagon with me to create an association between us, which is a common scum tactic. It let's him get by with contributing very little and avoiding much attention.

VioIet wrote:Why was "Droz ~ Augustine of Canterbury Saint ~ Watcher," listed in Red? I thought Red was the mafia's color, and Blue was the Town's color.

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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby pancakemix on Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:39 pm

Normally I'd probably agree with Rodion about lynching Doom (If for no other reason to prevent Safari from being interfered with) but I'm not sure that's an option. Frankly we don't have to kill the subverted to win and if we lynch Doom we're probably only slowing mafia down which I'm not sure we can afford right now.


That's actually a really good point. Leaving Yoshi alive is basically a ticket to Saf getting blocked. Hard to argue with that logic, despite the case against you.

Of the rest of your list, I would most highly suspect pancakemix. He's been playing "yes man" to my accusations against you (even when I was somewhat unsure about them) and it seems as if he's trying to bandwagon with me to create an association between us, which is a common scum tactic. It let's him get by with contributing very little and avoiding much attention.


I'll admit, I've had a hard time following this one since it started. That said, I feel the case on strike is based more in reality than in meta, solely because there was an actual action involved rather than the guesswork of "the list". It's also been easier to point out due to its simplicity. Is it possible that it was purely coincidence? Sure. I just find that too convenient. So as much as I'm flattered by you thinking I'm trying to be your buddy, that is not the case. It's just something I feel I can get behind, something I've been hard-pressed to find all game.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby strike wolf on Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:47 pm

F1fth wrote:I am not Firth, he was a different player. :) I am F1fth or Fifth.
Yes sorry about that.

Have you given any consideration to the possibility that Aage was indeed the recruiter as / mentioned? He even provided evidence based on the fact that Aage's death seemed to cause a last spate of recruitments.

Admittedly, it was not something that I had considered until he brought it up but it makes a lot of sense. None of the demon roles discovered this game have had passive abilities and all have been powerful. Therefore, I find it less likely then that Aage's only ability was to mislead investigations. Further (apologies for this metagaming), if scum were to lose their vital recruiter role early on due to a lucky investigation, it would be very difficult for them to recover given all the powerful town roles. Then it would make sense their recruiter has a bit of protection such as investigative immunity.
Considered it but unless his role says recruiter, I have to assume that is not the case. Admittedly you do bring up some good points, though as long as we're metagaming, even in non-vanilla games there tends to be some passive roles. We also can't rule out that the recruiter ability may not even be tied down to one single player.

What I'm getting at is a surer lynch of a subverted saint might not be a terrible idea if the only other option is to roll the dice and possibly take out a townie.

As for your point about myself...

I didn't follow up on your rebuttal because it was a WIFOM and there was nothing more to be said. Your defense amounted to "If I were scum, I wouldn't take the risk to give Soundman and myself credibility by leading town to Rishaed." Was I supposed to say "Yes you would, liar!"? It would have been completely unhelpful to town but supposedly it would make me look less scummy. I'm a pragmatist, and how I appear be damned... I'm trying to find scum.


It was largely WIFOM because most of your argument not involving statistics (which admitted couldn't be argued in consideration of Chap's findings) was WIFOM. You suggested that as a veteran player, I may do ___, so I responded that As a veteran player I would actually do ____. You also went into today pushing the case when circumstances had changed but provided no new reason for voting me. You challenged me on my reasoning for switching the two as I did, I believe "Randomly" was the word you used, I invited you to look back on my reasoning that I had put forth.

That said, what is it that you're accusing me of at the heart of matters? To me, it seems like it is my indecisiveness on whether you or DRoZ were one of the last scum on the list. I'll readily admit I moved back and forth on that one. I don't have all the answers, but if you'll note I ended up making the correct choice in the end.


More or less indecisiveness, not following through and what may have been bandwagoning on DroZ. It's not a hugely strong case by itself never said it was. Whether we lynch Doom or we decide we can't afford to leave the recruiter alive (assuming town decides as I believe that the recruiter is still out there), we can't go into the night without investigating leads and yours seemed as good as any.

Of the rest of your list, I would most highly suspect pancakemix. He's been playing "yes man" to my accusations against you (even when I was somewhat unsure about them) and it seems as if he's trying to bandwagon with me to create an association between us, which is a common scum tactic. It let's him get by with contributing very little and avoiding much attention.


Looking back over yesterday more closely, I will agree that is definitely possible. I at the least agree that he did appear to be following your lead. It appears he's replied to this now, will read more in depth when I'm not as tired.

Pancakemix wrote:That's actually a really good point. Leaving Yoshi alive is basically a ticket to Saf getting blocked. Hard to argue with that logic, despite the case against you.


To be clear, you are agreeing with lynching doom so that Safari isn't interfered with not the rest of the excerpt?
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby pancakemix on Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:50 pm

To be clear, you are agreeing with lynching doom so that Safari isn't interfered with not the rest of the excerpt?


Yes. Saf's just to valuable, and Doom is almost certainly subverted. Better to go with a productive sure thing than to take a stab, however sure it might be.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby safariguy5 on Sat Mar 02, 2013 12:22 am

pancakemix wrote:
To be clear, you are agreeing with lynching doom so that Safari isn't interfered with not the rest of the excerpt?


Yes. Saf's just to valuable, and Doom is almost certainly subverted. Better to go with a productive sure thing than to take a stab, however sure it might be.

I would agree with this statement. The question is that if we lynch doom and he doesn't turn up recruiter, what should be my next plan of action be? Perhaps take a blind shot at one of the inactives and hope I hit mafia? Use an investigation?

Because the numbers that strike is painting point to us not having a lot of leeway in several cases.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby / on Sun Mar 03, 2013 3:01 am

Well, if jak's vote could possibly put mafia over the edge, perhaps jak be vigged tonight?
I am personally skeptical that we are at lynch or lose, but so long as we eliminate suspects as quickly as possible, our chances of hitting the random recruits and Mammon (+any other demons if applicable) increases, it's not like our odds are getting better day to day...

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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby Rodion on Sun Mar 03, 2013 4:50 am

I like the idea of eliminating Jak, but Strike could be a subverted busdriver (or a demon busdriver), which could make this backfire enormously.

So far I've not been able to come up with a failproof plan as only angels are truly trustworthy.

Anyway, I still back lynching Yoshi.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby jak111 on Sun Mar 03, 2013 10:42 am

I still think we need to spur the inactives into activity if we wish to get the most of tonight as well. Then again, there's always the chance of hitting a demon in the inactive group.

Lynching Doom is fine, but we'll do that when we're closer to deadline if we do not find a better lead.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby Rodion on Mon Mar 04, 2013 11:40 pm

Vote DoomYoshi.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby pancakemix on Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:34 am

What's the VC?
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 12/25

Postby edocsil on Tue Mar 05, 2013 3:04 pm

pancakemix wrote:What's the VC?


Pretty low :(

VC

Doom (3) ~ Rodion, /, Violet
Droz (3) ~ ???, Saf, Fifth << these don't count, he's dead, its just an fyi for old vote placement.
Nos (1) ~ Jak
Strike (1) PCM,

Blake has requested to be killed/replaced, and I cannot find a replacement. Yay! More Modkills!

Blakebowling ~ Emma of Ludger Saint ~ Modposter has been modkilled.

11 alive 6 to lynch.
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Re: Golden Pantheon - Angels and Demons - D8 11/25

Postby F1fth on Tue Mar 05, 2013 6:20 pm

I don't feel comfortable taking a gamble at the risk of hitting town at this late point in the game. I suppose we could hazard a guess on who the remaining demons are, but we may be close to losing this with a mislynch and if the slowing of discussion is any indication then nobody has any other strong leads at the moment. I'm pretty confident that DY is a safe bet for converted saint given that he's been acting off for quite a while now, so I'd like to move along with that.

I going to avoid placing my vote at the moment to mitigate the chance of a speedlynch, but for all intents and purposes consider DoomYoshi at L-2. UNVOTE
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