The possibility that the scum turned another player into scum is rather strong a possibility, that it's only wise that we should be extra careful in our lynch for today, since that might put us in a lylo position for today.
I think we can be sure that N4 proceeded with only 2 mafia, though. The actions we've known them to carry out so far is to NK, roleblock, and steal gifts; and on N4 there's the added possibility of Christmas magic. Definitely between the first 3 known actions, only a maximum of 2 actions could've been carried out. We also do not know if Christmas magic must be used as someone's single action, or as an add-on to his actions. As far as we know, there was no stealing of gifts; a possible NK targeted on Gustaf (or none at all); and a roleblock possibly on betiko/someone else who wouldn't be able to realise he was roleblocked, or no roleblocking action carried out.
1. If Gustaf was targeted for NK
, then Mets is town, and Mafia wouldn't have used Christmas magic on Gustaf (since they'd have wanted him dead, NOT on their side). If this is the case, they would almost definitely have used their other action. But then why didn't they roleblock any of Mets, Gustaf, or Witt - since in this scenario, ALL actions got through. Targeting anyone other than these 3 would be a bad move on their part, especially so when there are only 2 of them remaining.
2. If Gustaf was NOT targeted for NK
, then nobody was targeted, and Mets is scum. Roleblock, then, would have logical sense to go to betiko, in order to continue casting suspicion on him, especially with him being the greatest advocate for Mets' lynch. The other scum then could've exchanged his presents for Christmas magic, turning Gustaf from townie into scum.
In all honesty, I have to say scenario 2 makes more logical sense for a mafia move, as compared to a poorly executed one in scenario 1. Unless anyone has any information to provide that hasn't already been surfaced, vote metsfanmax
MoB Deadly wrote:Im going to recap this AGAIN. even though I feel like I have reposted it like 3-4 times. I feel like it is getting skipped over and ignored.
TheChuck was Mafia.
At the end of Day 3............
It was 4 votes on Betiko, and 2 votes on soundman...... Betiko was HOURS from getting lynched.
Betiko was claimed - Town Gifter.
soundman was claimed - Third Party Lyncher.
TheChuck, MOVED his vote. Instead of voting for a gifter, he goes after 3rd party?!??!?
Betiko FOLLOWS TheChuck and MOVES his vote over to soundman, making it 4 votes betiko, 4 votes soundman.
WHY ON EARTH. Would chuck move his vote from a GIFTER. To a 3rd party lyncher which had nothing to do with him. That would not make sense unless betiko was mafia and he needed to make a move to defend him.
I've been thinking about this, MoB, and something struck me about how betiko can be town, and Chuck still acts logically as scum. (Naturally, I thus have to assume while presenting this case that betiko is town, and his roleclaim is true.)
betiko is a gifter. While gifts benefit town, they can benefit mafia too. That's some reason to keep him around, especially since betiko hadn't had his radar up on chuck yet. Plus, if they can predict who betiko gifts to, they can just steal gifts from that person.
Moreover, Chuck as scum would want to whittle down the numbers of any non-mafia as fast as possible. Lynching betiko removes a highly suspicious
townie from the game, and only removes a single player. On the other hand, lynching a 3rd party lyncher removes BOTH the lyncher and lynchee from the game, thus removing 2 non-mafia from the game, while still leaving a townie (betiko) who is likely to be pushed for lynching again later in the game.
You have to admit, it would make great logical sense for a mafia to put off lynching a townie betiko to another day - just as much sense as a mafia attempting to save a fellow mafia in betiko.