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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby rishaed on Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:55 am

betiko wrote:
rishaed wrote:
rishaed wrote:I would like a vote count.
I don't want this thread dying so I'm going to do a small recap.
A. Speed lynching: I feel that even if we decide on a person we should definitely compile our info for the day. Overall we need to use the day to its fullest.
B. Betiko/Mets: this debate has gone on for a few days, and I feel like between the two of the there is a scum.
C. My Take: I'm leaning slightly more Mets than Betiko here. The scum didn't seem to do anything last night, if Mets is scum it's a perfect way to "confirm" his claim. I am betting scum did something to skew Gustafs results last night, they seemed to have blocked him every other night and y wouldn't they block the doc if they were going to NK him, it makes no sense.

Guess I forgot to say, if you don't buy my claim you are more than welcome to try and vig me, it will confirm that I am who I say I am.


nice try godfather!

No really try and NK me, it'll prove my claim. If you don't believe me that's fine the truth'll come out sometime.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Sat Mar 09, 2013 12:11 pm

rishaed wrote:
betiko wrote:
rishaed wrote:
rishaed wrote:I would like a vote count.
I don't want this thread dying so I'm going to do a small recap.
A. Speed lynching: I feel that even if we decide on a person we should definitely compile our info for the day. Overall we need to use the day to its fullest.
B. Betiko/Mets: this debate has gone on for a few days, and I feel like between the two of the there is a scum.
C. My Take: I'm leaning slightly more Mets than Betiko here. The scum didn't seem to do anything last night, if Mets is scum it's a perfect way to "confirm" his claim. I am betting scum did something to skew Gustafs results last night, they seemed to have blocked him every other night and y wouldn't they block the doc if they were going to NK him, it makes no sense.

Guess I forgot to say, if you don't buy my claim you are more than welcome to try and vig me, it will confirm that I am who I say I am.


nice try godfather!

No really try and NK me, it'll prove my claim. If you don't believe me that's fine the truth'll come out sometime.


if you are godfather and someone tries to vig you you will be bulletproof.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Sat Mar 09, 2013 12:14 pm

edocsil wrote:
betiko wrote:
pancakemix wrote:Vote Count

IB is 1 vote away from the lynch, so all mafia are on IB right now, just waiting to convince 1 town to win the game. Mafia are mets, rishaed and gustaf, I'm now convinced.


Or IB is scum and they aren't throwing him under the bus? Bad to assume that there is only one course of action for the scum.


I think that one is way too twisted. they just need to lynch 1 town and NK another one, assuming they manage to perform their action and none gets viged in their faction or no one gets revived in the town faction. but of course, everything is always possible in mafia.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Mar 09, 2013 12:17 pm

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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby rishaed on Sat Mar 09, 2013 12:29 pm

betiko wrote:
rishaed wrote:
betiko wrote:
rishaed wrote:
rishaed wrote:I would like a vote count.
I don't want this thread dying so I'm going to do a small recap.
A. Speed lynching: I feel that even if we decide on a person we should definitely compile our info for the day. Overall we need to use the day to its fullest.
B. Betiko/Mets: this debate has gone on for a few days, and I feel like between the two of the there is a scum.
C. My Take: I'm leaning slightly more Mets than Betiko here. The scum didn't seem to do anything last night, if Mets is scum it's a perfect way to "confirm" his claim. I am betting scum did something to skew Gustafs results last night, they seemed to have blocked him every other night and y wouldn't they block the doc if they were going to NK him, it makes no sense.

Guess I forgot to say, if you don't buy my claim you are more than welcome to try and vig me, it will confirm that I am who I say I am.


nice try godfather!

No really try and NK me, it'll prove my claim. If you don't believe me that's fine the truth'll come out sometime.


if you are godfather and someone tries to vig you you will be bulletproof.

The GF is usually Bulletproof/Investigative Immune in my experience, and if you think I'm bulletproof have Gustaf cop me, oh wait, he may be scum now b/c of recruitment.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby anamainiacks on Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:26 pm

The possibility that the scum turned another player into scum is rather strong a possibility, that it's only wise that we should be extra careful in our lynch for today, since that might put us in a lylo position for today.

I think we can be sure that N4 proceeded with only 2 mafia, though. The actions we've known them to carry out so far is to NK, roleblock, and steal gifts; and on N4 there's the added possibility of Christmas magic. Definitely between the first 3 known actions, only a maximum of 2 actions could've been carried out. We also do not know if Christmas magic must be used as someone's single action, or as an add-on to his actions. As far as we know, there was no stealing of gifts; a possible NK targeted on Gustaf (or none at all); and a roleblock possibly on betiko/someone else who wouldn't be able to realise he was roleblocked, or no roleblocking action carried out.

1. If Gustaf was targeted for NK, then Mets is town, and Mafia wouldn't have used Christmas magic on Gustaf (since they'd have wanted him dead, NOT on their side). If this is the case, they would almost definitely have used their other action. But then why didn't they roleblock any of Mets, Gustaf, or Witt - since in this scenario, ALL actions got through. Targeting anyone other than these 3 would be a bad move on their part, especially so when there are only 2 of them remaining.

2. If Gustaf was NOT targeted for NK, then nobody was targeted, and Mets is scum. Roleblock, then, would have logical sense to go to betiko, in order to continue casting suspicion on him, especially with him being the greatest advocate for Mets' lynch. The other scum then could've exchanged his presents for Christmas magic, turning Gustaf from townie into scum.

In all honesty, I have to say scenario 2 makes more logical sense for a mafia move, as compared to a poorly executed one in scenario 1. Unless anyone has any information to provide that hasn't already been surfaced, vote metsfanmax.


MoB Deadly wrote:Im going to recap this AGAIN. even though I feel like I have reposted it like 3-4 times. I feel like it is getting skipped over and ignored.

TheChuck was Mafia.

At the end of Day 3............

It was 4 votes on Betiko, and 2 votes on soundman...... Betiko was HOURS from getting lynched.

Betiko was claimed - Town Gifter.
soundman was claimed - Third Party Lyncher.

TheChuck, MOVED his vote. Instead of voting for a gifter, he goes after 3rd party?!??!?
Betiko FOLLOWS TheChuck and MOVES his vote over to soundman, making it 4 votes betiko, 4 votes soundman.

WHY ON EARTH. Would chuck move his vote from a GIFTER. To a 3rd party lyncher which had nothing to do with him. That would not make sense unless betiko was mafia and he needed to make a move to defend him.

I've been thinking about this, MoB, and something struck me about how betiko can be town, and Chuck still acts logically as scum. (Naturally, I thus have to assume while presenting this case that betiko is town, and his roleclaim is true.)

betiko is a gifter. While gifts benefit town, they can benefit mafia too. That's some reason to keep him around, especially since betiko hadn't had his radar up on chuck yet. Plus, if they can predict who betiko gifts to, they can just steal gifts from that person.

Moreover, Chuck as scum would want to whittle down the numbers of any non-mafia as fast as possible. Lynching betiko removes a highly suspicious townie from the game, and only removes a single player. On the other hand, lynching a 3rd party lyncher removes BOTH the lyncher and lynchee from the game, thus removing 2 non-mafia from the game, while still leaving a townie (betiko) who is likely to be pushed for lynching again later in the game.

You have to admit, it would make great logical sense for a mafia to put off lynching a townie betiko to another day - just as much sense as a mafia attempting to save a fellow mafia in betiko.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:43 pm

thank god, someone making sense here! mafia had traced an easy route for town to follow, way too easy to be true without raising any suspicion. They are not stupid, and their whole setup is well orchestrated. They tried to speedlynch IB and FOSing anyone trying to do a little thinking or waiting for other townies to show up.

come on, look at that votecount on IB it's a real joke, THERE is the freakin conga line!!!! lol The 3 mafia and the 3rd party that wins either way.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:53 pm

anamainiacks wrote:The possibility that the scum turned another player into scum is rather strong a possibility, that it's only wise that we should be extra careful in our lynch for today, since that might put us in a lylo position for today.

I think we can be sure that N4 proceeded with only 2 mafia, though. The actions we've known them to carry out so far is to NK, roleblock, and steal gifts; and on N4 there's the added possibility of Christmas magic. Definitely between the first 3 known actions, only a maximum of 2 actions could've been carried out. We also do not know if Christmas magic must be used as someone's single action, or as an add-on to his actions. As far as we know, there was no stealing of gifts; a possible NK targeted on Gustaf (or none at all); and a roleblock possibly on betiko/someone else who wouldn't be able to realise he was roleblocked, or no roleblocking action carried out.

1. If Gustaf was targeted for NK, then Mets is town, and Mafia wouldn't have used Christmas magic on Gustaf (since they'd have wanted him dead, NOT on their side). If this is the case, they would almost definitely have used their other action. But then why didn't they roleblock any of Mets, Gustaf, or Witt - since in this scenario, ALL actions got through. Targeting anyone other than these 3 would be a bad move on their part, especially so when there are only 2 of them remaining.

2. If Gustaf was NOT targeted for NK, then nobody was targeted, and Mets is scum. Roleblock, then, would have logical sense to go to betiko, in order to continue casting suspicion on him, especially with him being the greatest advocate for Mets' lynch. The other scum then could've exchanged his presents for Christmas magic, turning Gustaf from townie into scum.

In all honesty, I have to say scenario 2 makes more logical sense for a mafia move, as compared to a poorly executed one in scenario 1. Unless anyone has any information to provide that hasn't already been surfaced, vote metsfanmax.


In what way does it follow that if scum recruited Gustaf last night, that I am also scum?
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:55 pm

betiko wrote:come on, look at that votecount on IB it's a real joke, THERE is the freakin conga line!!!! lol The 3 mafia and the 3rd party that wins either way.


I'll admit that I wouldn't have voted IB so quickly if the possibility of Gustaf being recruited had ever occurred to me. Hence my unvote.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby anamainiacks on Sat Mar 09, 2013 2:23 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:
anamainiacks wrote:2. If Gustaf was NOT targeted for NK, then nobody was targeted, and Mets is scum. Roleblock, then, would have logical sense to go to betiko, in order to continue casting suspicion on him, especially with him being the greatest advocate for Mets' lynch. The other scum then could've exchanged his presents for Christmas magic, turning Gustaf from townie into scum.

In what way does it follow that if scum recruited Gustaf last night, that I am also scum?

Whoops! Sorry this is my bad, I had initially written the scenarios as "Mets is town" vs. "Mets is scum", then realised this isn't quite the crux of it all, and changed it while writing my post. Forgot that the different scenarios didn't necessarily equate to what I was thinking initially; and in my mind's eye, they were the same (sorry, it's 3AM here).

You are right that Gustaf being recruited doesn't equate to you being scum, as you wouldn't know if your heal had had any impact (if you are indeed town). And as far as my mind can recall, I don't think there was any undeniable link between you and Gustaf. All I can think of is the 'scum conga line', but that's hardly enough to make me vote for you over Gustaf at the present moment. Thus, unvote, vote Gustaf Wasa.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Mar 09, 2013 2:38 pm

Well, I don't excuse myself, but it took several days for anyone to suggest the possibility that Gustaf had been recruited, so at least I'm not the only one.

Still, this is a hard situation. Now that this possibility is in play, things that Gustaf has done today take on a new significance. Let's start with the initial claim:

On to business! I wasn't roleblocked yesterday. Was it because the Mafia tried to kill me instead and were stopped by the Doc? Luckily we can ask one of them directly. My investigation revealed this: Iron Butterfly is Mafia.

vote Iron Butterfly


As IB pointed out, why would Gustaf decide to investigate IB when myself and betiko were the prime scum targets after D4? He gives us his answer:

Gustaf Wasa wrote:I didn't investigate Metsfanmax and Betiko because with theChuck exposed as Mafia, they are targets anyway. One of them is probably Mafia and he won't get away.


This makes no sense, and I should have called it as bad logic at the time. This is exactly the opposite of what mafia would do: if either one of us was indeed mafia, and the other wasn't, they would want to force a mislynch on the one who was town instead of wasting an NK on that same person. Yes, the one of us that was town would eventually have to be NK'ed, but it makes no sense for them to waste the great opportunity they have to keep the town confused as to who the real scum is. His justification for investigating IB?

Gustaf Wasa wrote:My investigation was a few days ago, and it is after midnight now, I can't remember exactly what it was that made me investigate you ... except for one of the things, namely that you claim to be a "gift doubler", doubling the number of gifts given you. Almost everyone else has a role that can be verified by others at some point: roleblocker, cop, gift giver, the guy with the crazy giveaway ghost voice. Yours was a convenient non-verifiable claim for scum, I thought. Turns out I was right.


This is also not particularly good logic, because despite the the fact that betiko and I have, in principle, verifiable roles as gifters, we haven't yet been successful in clearing ourselves that way, and it's not obvious that we'll get the chance to; there are very few nights remaining.



It is hard to get a good read on his later posts. He basically keeps pushing for the lynch and insisting that we don't get sidetracked; this is scum behavior, but since I was more or less guilty of the same thing, it's not that conclusive.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Mar 09, 2013 2:39 pm

Numerically speaking, we have to lynch Gustaf don't we? If we lynch him and he flips town, we can lynch IB the next day; but if we lynch IB and he flips town, we've basically lost.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby MoB Deadly on Sat Mar 09, 2013 2:46 pm

Im done, I give up. I have done what I can for town. I can't believe you guys let one person, Betiko, throw town through mental hoops with insane scenarios.

Unvote. I will periodically check the thread and I will vote with the biggest wagon here on out.

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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby rishaed on Sat Mar 09, 2013 2:57 pm

MoB Deadly wrote:Im done, I give up. I have done what I can for town. I can't believe you guys let one person, Betiko, throw town through mental hoops with insane scenarios.

Unvote. I will periodically check the thread and I will vote with the biggest wagon here on out.

"If you can't beat them, then join them"

I'm actually sorry to hear that. However I can understand where you are coming from right now. I hope it doesn't discourage you from playing in other games though. 8-[
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Mar 09, 2013 3:08 pm

MoB Deadly wrote:Im done, I give up. I have done what I can for town. I can't believe you guys let one person, Betiko, throw town through mental hoops with insane scenarios.


The "insane cop" theory was literally insane. The "Gustaf was recruited" scenario is clearly not insane. PCM indirectly confirmed that you can use christmas magic to change factions, and Gustaf would be the obvious recruitment choice. At this point, I think the recruitment scenario is at least as likely as my original theory. I'm not just tossing around hypotheticals.
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