[Official] D&D Mafia ~ Endgame

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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby edocsil on Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:19 am

Tuesday, 9 pm eastern is deadline. Its a little longer than the 2 weeks, but I'm not making a scene at midnight Monday again.
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby DoomYoshi on Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:46 am

Epitaph1 wrote:Well, 10:45 pm on a Friday night may be my best chance to post, so it will have to do.

I looked back on Aage's case on rishaed and I don't think it's very solid. It feels more like a "I don't know what else to do" kind of a case, which sadly may be what this game has come to. rishaed didn't do anything that made me think he was town-aligned (i.e. not evil) for certain, but nothing jumped out at me that suggested he was scummier than anyone else. However, I think Aage's line of thinking that we pressure the lesser contributors may be our best bet since we don't have any hard evidence to go on from night actions.

Here's where we stand on claims:

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We have 9 people who haven't claimed (including TFO and Mob, who we know only a bit about) and I would think that there are at least 3 scum in this game, possibly four. Due to everyone's simultaneous busy real lives, we may only get one claim today with the deadline approaching early next week. That's not a great scenario because we will either lynch the person if we don't believe him/her or have a no lynch if we believe the claim.

Aage suggested rishaed, who I'm not opposed to pressuring, but I think there is another candidate who is more deserving if our cases are going to be built on a person's activity/contribution: Skillful

Skillful's activity had been petering off even before everyone else went dormant and he's basically nowhere to be found today (aside from 1 post). Prior to today, he was hopping along the wagons (Aage then Stubbs. . .although Stubbs had it coming) and maintaining a level of participation that was pretty minimal. If I had to put his contributions in quotes since page 30, I don't think it would fill half a page. In sum, he's been flying under the radar at least since page 30, which is when I started my review.

Vote Skillful

fp'd at this hour. . .


At his rate of play he will be modkilled.
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby TheForgivenOne on Sat Oct 05, 2013 6:32 pm

anamainiacks wrote:
Rodion wrote:Did we lose much? The only relevant post I remember was Animaniack's.

You remember correctly. Most of the posts before mine that I saw were apologising for busyness.

For those that didn't see mine, the best replicate I can give is:
"Sorry, but really busy with work as well. My workplace is having an audit coming up, so we're busy preparing for that.

The general impression I get for now while reading through is that rishaed doesn't seem like scum. There were only 2 votes on him the entire time, and if he were scum, it'd have been easy for his scum buddy to divert the attention to another player by creating an alternate wagon, especially when not many of the others were convinced enough to put their vote on rishaed. It seems more like the scum were more than happy to let rishaed slide as an easy mislynch due to inactivity from everyone in general. And by 'scum' I mean those that are Evil-aligned; he may still be Chaotic of course."


I agree with Ana's post here. No bells or whistles are ringing in my head making me think Rishaed's one of the roles that have been killing.

Epi's post has some merit, but as DY mentioned, he'll probably be modkilled. I'm gonna reread a bit when I get a chance and see if I spot anything.
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby strike wolf on Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:02 pm

I still need to reread but again, I am fine with the potential Rishaed lynch. It makes a lot more sense than A. Epitaph for no apparent reason (Seriously, if you weren't pretty much guaranteed lawful/good, I would be completely in favor of lynching you Doom). B. Skillfu who will either remain inactive and be modkilled or come back at which point the case would die anyways pending future actions from Skill. So at this point, if things don't change and I don't get a chance to reread, I intend to vote Rishaed before deadline is reached.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby strike wolf on Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:03 pm

EBWOP: I forgot to mention that bandwagoning is a pretty strong tell of someone who is not town. There are some third party questions that come along certainly which is the hitch but I am not completely buying into Rishaed's claims as of yet and it's worth looking further into.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby Rodion on Sun Oct 06, 2013 12:07 am

I'm leaning towards a Rishaed vote mainly due to lack of better options (I don't like to use inactivity as a voting reason since it's always better to lobby for a replacement). I plan on rereading tomorrow (monday at the latest) to properly decide my vote.
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby MoB Deadly on Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:44 am

I am going to start with a vote on vote skillfull. Case on rishead not very good however its the only case that has gotten any effort and put on the table. I think the case on rishead is semi-random, and I think going after one of the inactives/submariners is a better pick to kill mafia. Right now the mafia has no incentive to keep posting. The town hasn't really pegged on any of them, I think they will stand back and let us kill ourselves.

I think someone else mentioned that if rishead was a mafia, someone could easily put in an effort to make a better case to divert the town.

Unless all the mafia is this busy/lazy/tired as we are. I think a limped bandwagon on a scummate would be an incentive for me to put in effort on another case.

I kinda rambled there.....
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby DoomYoshi on Sun Oct 06, 2013 1:18 pm

strike wolf wrote: (Seriously, if you weren't pretty much guaranteed lawful/good, I would be completely in favor of lynching you Doom)


I get that every game. Starting to get old.
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby TheForgivenOne on Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:31 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:
strike wolf wrote: (Seriously, if you weren't pretty much guaranteed lawful/good, I would be completely in favor of lynching you Doom)


I get that every game. Starting to get old.


It's because you're lovable. ♥
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby strike wolf on Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:56 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:
strike wolf wrote: (Seriously, if you weren't pretty much guaranteed lawful/good, I would be completely in favor of lynching you Doom)


I get that every game. Starting to get old.


Perhaps you should reexamine your play style.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby DoomYoshi on Sun Oct 06, 2013 5:11 pm

strike wolf wrote:
DoomYoshi wrote:
strike wolf wrote: (Seriously, if you weren't pretty much guaranteed lawful/good, I would be completely in favor of lynching you Doom)


I get that every game. Starting to get old.


Perhaps you should reexamine your play style.


I don`t have a style to examine. I post what I am thinking, whether I am mafia or not. Other people don`t follow. It`s like math class, when I would just right the answer and they would ask me to show my work and I would say `how the f*ck can I show my work when I saw the question and the answer popped into my head`. Eventually, I had to learn to work problems backwards so that I could understand how people wanted me to show the answer forward.

All brain scans show that people come up with an answer and then justify it afterwards, despite illusions of logic and free will. I am just lucky enough to see this in my own mind. I am eons ahead of the human race and one day, people may or may not realize that I was right all along.

In any case, as soon as I saw my role, I determined that the best way to play it was to kill the first person who claimed a faction which I can not win against. I then played exactly that way. Can you explain how this is incorrect?
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby DoomYoshi on Sun Oct 06, 2013 5:18 pm

See, I`ve done it again. I just realized I didn`t specify that the reason for the rant is by saying I should change my play style, strike wolf is actually saying I should change my personality or who I am. Which is a ridiculous proposition.
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D2 ~ 16/19

Postby Rodion on Sun Oct 06, 2013 6:58 pm

skillfusniper33 wrote:I agree that I wouldn't mind pressuring stubbs even though he plays the way he has. Now I thought it may have been early in his career with mafia since I was away for a while. But since everyone else says he has been around he should have picked up a better way to play the meta then his current strategy.

Unvote, Vote Stubbs
- I don't see the harm of getting one more claim out for the day.


Sniper was the one that originally defended Stubbs of having the style of posting mostly one-liners. Here, he voted Stubbs implying that he (Stubbs) had been around for some time and should have already evolved from posting one-liners to making more robust posts. The statement he used to back his vote is "since everyone else says he has been around". I've just now realized I did not remember anyone saying "Stubbs has been around", let alone "everyone else".

Did I miss anything or did he really fabricate a statement in order to justify voting someone who ended up flipping town?

At this point I'd rather pressure Sniper. However, if Edoc plans on modkilling him (which I dislike and would rather see a replacement instead), we might as well play with the idea of having multiple "lynches" (Sniper's modkill + an actual lynch), which increases the % of kills decided by town.

My suggestion is the following:

1 - take Sniper's modkill for granted and use the vote pressure on someone else (my reread has failed to find scummy stuff besides Sniper's quote and Yoshi's/Aage's general play, so I'd support a Rishaed vote).
2 - if there are signs of Sniper not getting modkilled (such as him bothering to make a post or Edoc getting a replacement), revert the current wagon (e.g. Rishaed's) back to Sniper (or his replacement) until we get a claim or a VERY good explanation.

The issue I see is that Edoc has established the exact time of the deadline, so Sniper could in theory scummarine until the last minutes and then make a post to simply dodge his modkill, in which case we'll have pressured my 2nd priority (Rishaed) instead of my 1st one (Sniper). If we are wrong and mislynch, then this mafia game might be over before we can correct our mistake with a D4 lynch (between mafia's NK, Yoshi/MoB possibly offing one another and there being neutrals that can share a win with mafia).

I'll take a break and hopefully come back with a less-risky plan.
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby Rodion on Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:02 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:See, I`ve done it again. I just realized I didn`t specify that the reason for the rant is by saying I should change my play style, strike wolf is actually saying I should change my personality or who I am. Which is a ridiculous proposition.


Strike's comment is mostly pragmatical. If your playstyle is making you less likely to win games (because you are often perceived as scummy and will be lynched more often than other players since there won't always be a scene that confirms you as town like the one in this game), then it's sound to consider changing it.
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Re: [Official] D&D Mafia ~ D3 ~ 11/19

Postby strike wolf on Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:34 pm

First of all, Mafia isn't math. Having the right answer isn't how you win. It doesn't even make you the best player. Mafia is more like a debate. You have to be able to convince the other players to side with you. Being arrogant, building up as being beyond human, making illogical cases that often go against known facts and general stubbornness do not lead to good debates. It's true most of us get arrogant sometimes. I know I am definitely guilty of this but you do have to take a step back some times and actually look at what's happening.

Secondly, we had a cult. Cult grows in power quicker than any other group and become huge threats the longer they are left alive. Therefore, cult=lynch priority #1. Furthermore, neither Chaos nor Lawful alone had the numbers to go against each other without guaranteed proof that the neutrals favored one side or the other. That is still true at this point. Lawful vs. Chaos will come I am sure but in the meantime, there's not enough momentum to wage that war in the open. Finally, you don't know how you're early day kill may have hurt your own side. No chaos aligned player in their right minds would openly claim such at this point. That's already going to make it much more difficult to lynch a group who should have had no real reason to hide (at least no more so than anyone good or neutral aligned or for that matter lawful aligned). You also don't know what other lawful players may have benefited from leaving chaos alone until they were out in greater numbers and more readily dealt with.

Either way, I don't want to spend all day arguing this when we should be looking for scum.

@Rodion: Hmm..I hadn't considered Skill's actions from that angle. That does make the case against him a bit more interesting.
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