red can deploy 1 on each of his base ships and has 3 chances of 51.2% of getting 3 bonuses of +1.

he can use the 2 other deployment troops he has to advance his camp armies towards the artillery but realistically speaking he won't be able to take any other bonuses.

on the other hand blue has the caravan which is a 5v1,2 and that's a 52.1% chance of winning for a +2 bonus.

he can also deploy 1 troop on quarter 4 to get a dock+ship. that's a 6v2,2 = 51.2% chance for a +1.

he still has 4 troops to deploy which if he puts on quarter 3 means he has a 51.4% chance of getting the ammo depot and 2 towers.

add to this the 5v2 attack from castle to bay tower and we see he has a total of 3 extra troops compared to red.

so i'm thinking this.

increase the market from neutral 1 to neutral 2 and the caravan from 2 to 3.

that means that in order to get the +2 for the caravan blue has to deploy at least 2 troop on the yard and attack 7v2,3 which has a chance of 53.5%

he'll also use a troop on quarter 4 to get a dock and his ship for 51.2% chance for a +1.

so he has just 2 more troops to deploy

the connection from quarter 3 to the ammo depot is a big advantage for blue so i'll take out that connection and make quarter 3 connect to the inn.

this way quarter 4, the yard and the castle become the starting points of the expansion (like the ships) while quarter 1 and 3 become support points (like the camps)

i've also increased the ammo depot from 2 to 5 and changed quarter 4 to quarter 3 and quarter 3 to quarter 2 and connected balloon to 1st infantry instead of 3rd.

alternatively blue can deloy 2 on yard to get the caravan, then take the bay tower, then use his 3 troops that he has to deploy to put on quarter 3 (former quarter4) and take the ammo depot and one wall tower. the chance of doing this 8v5,2 attack is 45.8%.but if he makes it (along with the 5v2 attack for the bay tower) he can get up to +4. but this is a double risk. not only the odds aren't in his favour but he also allows red to strengthen his bay area position.

V15:*renamed quarter 4 to quarter 3 and quarter 3 to quarter 2

*connected balloon to 1st infantry instead of 3rd

*connected quarter 2 to inn instead of ammo depot

*changed ammo depot from 2 neutral to 5

*changed market from 1 neutral to 2

*changed caravan from 2 neutral to 3.

- Click image to enlarge.