Gilgamesh; Coordinates on pg 20

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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby Merciless Wong on Sun May 03, 2009 6:58 pm

Any chance you could make one more city neutral.

With 5 free cities in 1v1 and 4 to get a bonus...there are 32 possibilities (each city can be with player 1 or 2)
Of those 12 scenarios give someone the starting +2.

If you get it down to 4 free cities and 4 to get a bonus, there are 16 scenarios and only 2 give someone the starting +2 . I t would be like "Starting With Australia" odds in Classic Risk.
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby Incandenza on Sun May 03, 2009 7:22 pm

Merciless Wong wrote:Any chance you could make one more city neutral.

With 5 free cities in 1v1 and 4 to get a bonus...there are 32 possibilities (each city can be with player 1 or 2)
Of those 12 scenarios give someone the starting +2.

If you get it down to 4 free cities and 4 to get a bonus, there are 16 scenarios and only 2 give someone the starting +2 . I t would be like "Starting With Australia" odds in Classic Risk.


You'd be way better off talking about percentages. And a 7.2% of a bonus drop with the cities is pretty damn good... lowering it too much more might so devalue the cities as terits as to make them extremely unattractive targets.
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby oaktown on Sun May 03, 2009 11:43 pm

Merciless Wong wrote:Any chance you could make one more city neutral.

Trouble is that with the current XML options, coding one more city neutral means one less starting territory for all games. I'm not willing to drop to 41 starting territories - it'd mean I'd have to add a territory somewhere else on the map, which just screws thing up even more.

As I've said before, changing one thing affects everything else.

Merciless Wong wrote:With 5 free cities in 1v1 and 4 to get a bonus...there are 32 possibilities (each city can be with player 1 or 2). Of those 12 scenarios give someone the starting +2.

Wow, 12 of 32... a 37% chance of somebody starting with the +2 would be really bad!! It's a good thing your numbers are wrong because you aren't correctly representing the way Conquer Club games assign territories. A 1v1 game has two players, but three starts (1 is neutral). And there are 42 territories on the board to be assigned - how are there only 32 possibilities?

I calculate the odds of one player getting four cities as 7.2%; logically the odds of player 1 having all four is half that. I can live with a 3.6% chance that somebody starts the game with an unfair advantage... that's the nature of 1v1.

In other news, anybody care which city starts neutral? I stuck in the middle, because I figure it can't be ignored and sit neutral all game. And that's probably the last region to fall, so it shouldn't ruin somebody's start.
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby Merciless Wong on Mon May 04, 2009 1:18 pm

Wow, 12 of 32... a 37% chance of somebody starting with the +2 would be really bad!! It's a good thing your numbers are wrong because you aren't correctly representing the way Conquer Club games assign territories. A 1v1 game has two players, but three starts (1 is neutral). And there are 42 territories on the board to be assigned - how are there only 32 possibilities?

I calculate the odds of one player getting four cities as 7.2%; logically the odds of player 1 having all four is half that. I can live with a 3.6% chance that somebody starts the game with an unfair advantage... that's the nature of 1v1.


Here's my working:

2^5 = 32. There are 5 provinces with cities, assuming conquer club will place them all with on player or the other there are
2x2x2x2x2 possibilities.
In 1 of them player 1 has it all
In 1 of them player 2 has it all
In 5 of them player 1 has 4 of the 5 cities
In 5 of them player 2 has 4 of the 5 cities
That's my 12 out of 32 = 37%

The reamaining 20 out of 32 are scenarios where player 1 has 3 cities (10 possibilities)
and player 2 has 3 cities (10 possibilities)

If you wish to model the number of neutals in 1v1 (I presume its 1 out of 40+ territories) it should make a slight difference.

If its 3 starts (1 neutral, meaning neutals will be 1/3 of the board):
3^5= 243 scenarios (focuing only on non hard coded neutral provinces that matter for city bonus)
2 of them they have it all
5 of them p 1 has 4, neutrals have 1
5 of them p 2 has 4, neutrals have 1
5 of them p 1 has 4, other has 1
5 of them p 2 has 4, other has 1

Makes it 22 out of 243 = 9.1%

Note in classic, the chance of starting with australia with
2 players (no neutrals) is 1/16 = 6.25%
3 players (no neutrals) is 1/ 81 = 1.23%
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby MrBenn on Mon May 04, 2009 6:25 pm

Wong, your numbers are wrong, and just add confusion :?

oaktown has answered your call to add more starting neutrals to the map with a much more measured response than my "1v1 = shit happens" in my thread where you raised the same concerns.

It might be time to drop the dead donkey :roll:
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby Incandenza on Mon May 04, 2009 6:29 pm

oaktown wrote:In other news, anybody care which city starts neutral? I stuck in the middle, because I figure it can't be ignored and sit neutral all game. And that's probably the last region to fall, so it shouldn't ruin somebody's start.


Assur works, like you say it's right in the middle of the map and won't be like one of those poor outlier AoR terits that only get attacked maybe once every couple hundred games... :D
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby Merciless Wong on Mon May 04, 2009 8:00 pm

Wong, your numbers are wrong, and just add confusion :?


I gave you my working with and without the third start of neutrals.. I'll take a look (eventually) if you post something with content I can respond to.

Trying to settle map questions by "you are wrong" is unproductive and looks more like friends weighing in to push a map forward instead of responding to the content.
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby Incandenza on Mon May 04, 2009 9:53 pm

Merciless Wong wrote:Trying to settle map questions by "you are wrong" is unproductive and looks more like friends weighing in to push a map forward instead of responding to the content.


This is a math question, not a map question. And when someone is wrong in a math question, as you are here I'm sorry to say, then the appropriate response is "you're wrong."
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby Merciless Wong on Mon May 04, 2009 10:47 pm

I'd love to see the working for the 7.2% number.
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby oaktown on Tue May 05, 2009 12:44 am

Merciless Wong wrote:There are 5 provinces with cities, assuming conquer club will place them all with on player or the other there are 2x2x2x2x2 possibilities.

As I have already said, this is where your first set of numbers were wrong. CC can place the players on specific territories if you tell it to, which I'm not. So 1/3 of all territories will start neutral.

You're close about the odds of a player dropping four cities being about 9.1%. My ability to do math ain't what it used to be, but I think that your way of working the numbers is a bit simplistic. Yes, in a three-start scenario there are 22 possible combinations for the four cities, but those combinations are replicated many times over in the millions (I'm being conservative) of possible starting scenarios. The 4-0 and 3-1 starts aren't replicated as often as are the other starts.

I got the 7.2% from the spreadsheet that MrBenn developed... he's come out with two versions, one for strict bonuses and one for "make your own" bonuses like this one. His formula may be off and this number may be low, but if it is I would bet that the actually number falls somewhere between his and yours, since his formula considers the total number of starting territories and how that impacts the start %s - yours do not.

Anyway, all that really matters is that player 1 not drop a bonus, since player 1 gets a chance to break it. Even your calculation of a 4.525% chance of this happening is something I - and I'd imagine most CC users - can live with. 1 in 20 games will be lopsided... so what else is new in 1v1? I'd say 100% of 1v1s are lopsided because somebody gets to go first. :lol:

I'm comfortable with the odds, as is the gameplay crew. Let's please move on. If you'd like to continue the discussion about how to calculate start odds I'd be happy to do so (because I'd like to better understand it) but let's not do it in the map thread.
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby Merciless Wong on Tue May 05, 2009 10:30 am

I think if you look at the thread that you got Mr Benn's spreadsheet from - there are considerable qualifications from those who tested it and Mr Benn himself.

I'll stand by the number I put up for 1v1 with neutral starts which is 9% not 4.5%.

I mean everyone can weigh in and just support their friends without any actual knowledge of the method being used to calculate start odds but its certainly inconsistent with the "quality map approach" and the "open to feedback or else" that is used by moderators and stampholders to justify their actions.

I'm not sure what the exact threshold on starting bonuses tolerated by gameplay is - I have no view on that issue. Just doing the foundry a favor and putting a number and some working out there.
I'll note in the England map, there's been some hardcoding of start positions so it still seems to be an issue.

I'm comfortable with the odds, as is the gameplay crew.


Oh, I'm sorry - I didn't know you spoke for them or had settled the issue through some alternative private process and avoided forum discussion. That seems fair. You should just move this to quenched without discussion then. Congratulations!!! =D>
Last edited by Merciless Wong on Tue May 05, 2009 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby AndyDufresne on Tue May 05, 2009 10:41 am

I'm horrible at math. If both of your numbers are low percentages, I could care less.

You can't eliminate random good luck drops, and I wouldn't anyone to really want to. It's part what I like about some of the older maps that don't take into account everyone trying to fix the randomness.

So both of you, place nice, or I'll thump your skulls for you. :)


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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby Merciless Wong on Tue May 05, 2009 10:44 am

What's a low percentage? Curious to know because there must be other maps out there that could benefit from clarity on this issue and arguably reached this impasse first.
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby oaktown on Tue May 05, 2009 7:58 pm

Merciless Wong wrote:I'll stand by the number I put up for 1v1 with neutral starts which is 9% not 4.5%.

As I've said, Wong, the 4.5% came from your figure. Using your figure of there being a 9% that somebody will drop the bonus it means that the first player to go only has a 4.5% chance of getting the bonus on the start. Two players, one is half of two, half of 9 is 4.5. If the second player gets the bonus, so be it - the first player has a free turn and 4 extra armies to do something about it.

I consider 4.5% to be a low enough percentage that I can live with it. If you don't, then we'll just have to disagree with each other on this one and leave it to the gameplay stamper. 8-)
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Re: Gilgamesh; cities simplified pg 7

Postby Merciless Wong on Wed May 06, 2009 11:40 am

I'm just wondering if other maps got held up on the starting issue. I think the England map had 4 hard-coded starts over a similar issue. So the threshold seems pretty high.
That is if we are being consistent here.
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