Doc_Brown wrote:I knew we'd lost a lot of points in Random League lately, and I guess this highlights exactly how much.
I see there are already many excuses how TOFU are F400 point victims by just participating in the Random League while it is for not true that they lost a lot of points there and it is for sure not the main reason why discrepancy in ranking between F400 and F41 is so huge. I will explain the real reason here, from mathematical point of view (roughly approximated):
1. When KORT (ranked 1393) lost vs TOFU (ranked 1357) by only 2 games 29-31 then KORT have lost 44 points.
Conclusion: losing by so small margin of only 2 games from clan who is 36 points lower ranked costed 44 points.
2. Let's consider TOFU's results in CL4 Phase 1. Majority of CL4 Phase 1 results were included into ranking around July 2012 so for this consideration I used July 1st 2012 ranking. TOFU had 1332 points, and average rank of all 7 opponents in CL4 was 1255. TOFU achieved total score of 39-45.
Conclusion: if from example (1) losing clan was ranked 36 points over winning clan, and lost by margin of 2 games in set whose weight was 61 was penalized by 44 points, then in example (2) clan who was ranked 78 points above average opponents' rank and lost by average margin of 6 games in challenge whose weight was 84, would for sure lose around 100 points from that challenge.
All 3 factors are unfavorable conditions in example (2) compared to example (1) (78v36 point difference, 6v2 losing margin and 84v61 total challenge weight) so that multiplies total points lost from the challenge. The only favorable condition for example (2) compared to example (1) is decay which happened in timeframe of 1 year, in comparing with no decay in example (1).
3. For Random League consideration, I will use TOFU's rank as 1375, which is median between their rank before and after KORT challenge, so half of RL results were included with old rank and half with new rank. For average rank of their opponents I will use May 1st F400 because it is median timeframe. Average rank of the 12 opponent clans that they completed their sets by using May 1st F400 ranking is 1006. From the 12 completed sets (144 games), TOFU's score is 93-51.
For comparison and concluding how many points this can cost TOFU or get to TOFU, I was searching for another match of similar ranking opponents and similar final result. I found IA (1263) vs LEG (922) [341 point difference] which ended 28-13[68,3%] from July 2013 ranking as a fair comparison to TOFU (1375) vs average RL opponents (1006) [369 point difference] which ended 93-51[64,6%]. Point difference between IA and LEG was little lower, but total score was little higher so ranking points awarded should be more or less equal. IA neither won neither lost points for winning that challenge because they had 1263 points both in July 15th and August 1st 2013, and the result was included in ranking at July 29th.
Conclusion: If IA which is very similar case did not lost nor get any points in war of 41 games, then also TOFU for similar winning and ranking difference conditions should stay more on less on the same number of points like they would have if they did not play RL. Weight of the challenge in this consideration can be neglected because IA had 1263 from their 380 games in last 2 years, and to that was added win of 28v13 which obviously had point value of around 1263 and weight of 44 games, so if weight was higher it would still be the same in averaging with their previous score.
Final conclusion and proof that Doc_Brown's accusing participation in RL for point lost is false:
From this brief mathematical analysis and comparison of similar results and rankings and points awarded for wins/losses, it is obvious that bad results in CL4 vs similar ranked opponents costed TOFU around 100 points while their results from RL3 approximately neither give neither took out points from them, so my initial opinion that the quoted post is lie is proven.
That was final conclusion about TOFU's results only, and here is consideration about KORT's results from small sets which had significant weight:
In CL4 Phase 2, KORT achieved score of 46-38 vs clans which were ranked in average around 100 points below. In CL4 Phase 3, KORT achieved score of 32-22 vs clans ranked around 100 points below. Those 2 sets are 2 sets with the highest weight from small challenges in last 2 years of KORT's activity, and those 2 sets combined for sure were awarded KORT by around 50 points. I did not combined CL4 phase 1 and CL5 phase 1 because on those competitions both clans achieved more or less similar results vs more or less similar ranked clans.
Final explanation for discrepancy between KORT's and TOFU's ranks in F400 and F41:
By comparing 2 major sets which were played by TOFU (CL4 P2 and RL3) and KORT (CL4 P2 and CL4 P3) and which are lower than 41 game sets, it is approximated that TOFU lost around 100 points in CL4 P2 and zero points in RL3, while KORT gained around 50 points in CL4 P2 and P3. That difference of around 150 points is approximately similar like difference between their F400 and F41 ranking which is 128 points. But source of where points were lost by TOFU is completely different than the source which has been been pointed by Doc_Brown, it is CL4 where KORT gained a lot of points while TOFU lost a lot of points, and not RL3 where TOFU neither lost neither won points.
My calculation is brief and approximately, for exact numbers IcePack can provide the real analysis from the Algorithm if he wish and has time, but I guarantee that real points gain/loss is not far away from my estimation made here.