Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Dako on Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:36 am

Wow, great job. I will look at it again to reread it cause there are a lot of info here.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby danryan on Wed Mar 30, 2011 8:38 am

I have to say, this is a very credible model from what I'm seeing so far. For one, it clearly shows what effect your input data has. Secondly, it removes all incentive for "farming" a clan. Lastly, it penalizes a clan (but not too severely) for inactivity, due to the decay factor. I'd like to hear jpcloet's take on it since he has put a lot of work into a lot of different models over the years to try and come up with a mathematical model.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby jpcloet on Wed Mar 30, 2011 9:33 am

I have a few question on the final rankings to help clarify.

1) TSM is due to lack of challenges correct?
2) MM seems to be the biggest outlier in my mind, considering the overall quality of opponents. Is S2 playing a part? This is the only real anomaly for me.
3) Is the O&H loss by LOW keeping LOW from the top 3?
4) What does the top 10 look like with a KORT win over THOTA in CCup1?
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby josko.ri on Wed Mar 30, 2011 12:44 pm

I very like this system of calculation, results are very reliable I think. decay idea is great. only one complaint, you put 32-28 result in TOFU vs KORT challenge in database, which couldnt be valid. for achieving that result TOFU used forbidden bonus according to the official rules of the challenge, so it shouldnt be validated as regular result.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Gold Knight on Wed Mar 30, 2011 12:52 pm

Dako wrote:Wow, great job. I will look at it again to reread it cause there are a lot of info here.


Agreed, someone finally put some colorful pictures up so us peasants can understand... :lol: It does seem like a pretty close representation of what the clan landscape is IMO. Where the hell have you been in the CLA the past year while we've been bickering over 40 different ranking systems?
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Leehar on Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:19 pm

josko.ri wrote:I very like this system of calculation, results are very reliable I think. decay idea is great. only one complaint, you put 32-28 result in TOFU vs KORT challenge in database, which couldnt be valid. for achieving that result TOFU used forbidden bonus according to the official rules of the challenge, so it shouldnt be validated as regular result.

It's already been validated under clan results so I doubt this is really the place for that argument
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Leehar on Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:42 pm

jpcloet wrote:I have a few question on the final rankings to help clarify.

1) TSM is due to lack of challenges correct?
2) MM seems to be the biggest outlier in my mind, considering the overall quality of opponents. Is S2 playing a part? This is the only real anomaly for me.
3) Is the O&H loss by LOW keeping LOW from the top 3?
4) What does the top 10 look like with a KORT win over THOTA in CCup1?

I was wondering more along the lines of if cl3 results were taken into account or something for tsm to be so far down?
I'd think the O&H loss would be too far back to have that much waiting, and it's still a surprise that IA is in the top 3 after losing to Low in their most recent full-scale challenge?
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby FarangDemon on Thu Mar 31, 2011 12:22 am

Admittedly, I'm not the data guy and I don't want to be the data guy. If someone wants to maintain a data file(s) I can link to it from my site.

All you have to do to change/add data on your own:

1) Click the link to the data file from my site (http://www.killersapp.com/algorithmof400.htm)
2) Open it in Excel or notepad
3) Change existing war data / add new entries
4) Paste it into the input box of my site
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby FarangDemon on Thu Mar 31, 2011 2:57 pm

jpcloet wrote:I have a few question on the final rankings to help clarify.

1) TSM is due to lack of challenges correct?



You can see the basis of the rating for every clan by checking "Display Basis".

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Tieing Grim Reapers and losing to BSS and Gen 1 gives TSM an 800 weighted at 17%, so that's what is bringing them down the most. I'm guessing that was CL3, so it's recent. The weight that is applied to each challenge is the number of games in the challenge times the decay factor (a number between 0%-100% based on how long ago the challenge took place). They don't have as much total weight as other clans do, so these CL3 losses/ties affect their score more than a clan with more wars and hence more weight.

I did not include their recent win in CL3 Quarterfinals as the final score was undecided when I put the data file together. This should give them a boost.

jpcloet wrote:2) MM seems to be the biggest outlier in my mind, considering the overall quality of opponents. Is S2 playing a part? This is the only real anomaly for me.


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Looks like 39% of their rating weight (losses to BSS, AOD, EMPIRE, Devils Brigade) averages below 800. Three out of four of these losses were brutal, winning 28-33% of games. In this model (min delta = 200, max delta = 600), clans that lose by a larger margin are penalized more.

jpcloet wrote:3) Is the O&H loss by LOW keeping LOW from the top 3?


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That O&H loss is weighted at just 5%, but at 599, it is still quite damaging.
Losses to THOTA, KoRT and TOFU weighted at combined 27% are also lowering them a little from where they otherwise would be based on other, lower weighted results (perhaps from past).

jpcloet wrote:4) What does the top 10 look like with a KORT win over THOTA in CCup1?


What margin should I use? It would probably end up #1 KoRT, #2 TOFU.

leehar wrote:I'd think the O&H loss would be too far back to have that much waiting, and it's still a surprise that IA is in the top 3 after losing to Low in their most recent full-scale challenge?


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The IA loss to LOW accounts for 12% of IA's rating. It drags us down the most, but we are buoyed by our strong performance in CL3, which is very recent and accounts for a ton of games (90 games in regular season).
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby jpcloet on Thu Mar 31, 2011 3:34 pm

FarangDemon wrote:Tieing Grim Reapers and losing to BSS and Gen 1 gives TSM an 800 weighted at 17%, so that's what is bringing them down the most. I'm guessing that was CL3, so it's recent.


Yes that was CL3, that mean's this is now a fully inclusive measure. Some will argue the league should not be included. One of the things I did before was to have the final league score against a generic team so that it got some weight as the divisions. More so for CL2.

Eg.

TSM 55 CL3A 45
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby FarangDemon on Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:45 am

jpcloet wrote:Yes that was CL3, that mean's this is now a fully inclusive measure. Some will argue the league should not be included.


I don't want to take your job, I'm just providing you a tool you or others can use to generate rankings based on your data. It's up to you to decide what data to use for your official ranking.

1) Regular Clan Wars (no CL)
2) All Data (Regular Clan Wars and CL)

Just put it into the right format and paste it into my script. http://killersapp.com/AllData.txt

In my example of how the script works, I included all data for two reasons:

Most Data
    The more data used, the more accurate the results of this algorithm.
Most Fair
    Choosing to discount certain results would, in my opinion, be a can of worms, as each clan would be motivated to lobby to exclude the wars where they performed the worst.

Note: Individual clan league war results are automatically weighted less than regular wars, because they consist of fewer games.

So you could maintain two clan war data sets and provide graphs for both, in order to please all of the people. But I'd recommend using all data for the above reasons.

jpcloet wrote:One of the things I did before was to have the final league score against a generic team so that it got some weight as the divisions. More so for CL2.

Eg.

TSM 55 CL3A 45


Ok so that would count as TSM beating a team with rating 1000? You can definitely implement this and see what it looks like. Some drawbacks I see with this:

1) Dilutes the data
2) Assumes competitiveness of each division is equal
3) Obscures the data - Clans on the bottom end up losing to a clan of rating 1000 at a high-to-moderate loss margin instead of to high ranked clans at high margins and medium ranked clans at moderate margins.

Due to item 3) I have no idea what the end effect will be, but it is confusing. I have a vague idea of what your intent is, but I'm not sure it will be accomplished due to this obscuring effect.

So I personally think it's a lot more straightforward and cleaner if we just keep data in original format, Clan 1 vs Clan 2 for each CL War.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby josko.ri on Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:16 am

jpcloet wrote:
FarangDemon wrote:Tieing Grim Reapers and losing to BSS and Gen 1 gives TSM an 800 weighted at 17%, so that's what is bringing them down the most. I'm guessing that was CL3, so it's recent.


Yes that was CL3, that mean's this is now a fully inclusive measure. Some will argue the league should not be included. One of the things I did before was to have the final league score against a generic team so that it got some weight as the divisions. More so for CL2.

Eg.

TSM 55 CL3A 45

I think that small number of games in CLA3 is actually validated by smaller weight factor in FG's calculations, and I agree with that totally. Weight factor may be dependent on number of games played and time passed from the war, not only by time passed.

I dont like your idea JP about TSM55 CL3A45 because it in any way does not include strength of opponents in Division. the fact that both teams from Divisions C&D and zero teams from Division A&B advanced to semis proves that some Divisions were stronger, and in ranking like this one it should be included strength of opponents in CL3 Divisions, which I think is implemented in FG's graphs.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Dako on Fri Apr 01, 2011 5:18 am

I disagree that Div C&D were stronger than Div A&B. You can only tell that one clan was stronger than the other at the moment with given settings, but you cannot propagate it on the whole division strength.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby josko.ri on Fri Apr 01, 2011 5:28 am

Dako wrote:I disagree that Div C&D were stronger than Div A&B. You can only tell that one clan was stronger than the other at the moment with given settings, but you cannot propagate it on the whole division strength.

so you then think that Divisions C&D were not the strongest? if so, again my point has sense, that it is not fair to validate score of 55 compared with average score of 45 in Division because not all Divisions were with the same strength (it is questioned and subjective opinion which one were stronger and which one easier, but I think everyone agrees that Divisions were not equal, some were stronger and some were easier). because of that I very like to validate Division results according to opponents faced in Division.

and I think that FD very good implemented factor of only 18 games challenge because Weight factor from Empire-Kort war is 10%, and weight factor from TSM-Kort Division challenge is 6% no matter that Empire war was from May and TSM challenge was from December. so obviously, number of games per challenge is included in weight factor next to time passed, and I totally support it. it is true that small challenges can sometimes be decided due to some bad luck/drops but then it is validated with small weight factor, so it makes good point to me.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Dako on Fri Apr 01, 2011 6:16 am

I didn't say you were wrong in your opinion on "each clan against score of the division" method. I haven't said your point didn't have sense ether. Please read my post more careful next time as it will save breath for both of us :).
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Leehar on Fri Apr 01, 2011 7:36 am

Dako wrote:I didn't say you were wrong in your opinion on "each clan against score of the division" method. I haven't said your point didn't have sense ether. Please read my post more careful next time as it will save breath for both of us :).

Then I'll say it.
I vehemently disagree Josko, specially with the Div A/B weaker than C/D. It's almost like saying in the Cricket World Cup Group A was overall better than Group B because they had 3 semifinalists. After all, over there the 2nd in group B made the Final, while the 1st lost in the quarters. It all just depends on who performed better on the day with the conditions, and I think that analogy holds some truth over here as well.

Again, I'm not sure why I still have an issue with the rankings, but something still feels a bit off
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby josko.ri on Fri Apr 01, 2011 8:40 am

@ Leehar

do you think that all Divisions were equally stronger/weaker or some Divisions were stronger and other ones were weaker?
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby danryan on Fri Apr 01, 2011 8:55 am

Division C was clearly the strongest because as awesome as FOED are we didn't even make the playoffs. Quod erat demonstratum.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Dako on Fri Apr 01, 2011 9:29 am

josko.ri wrote:@ Leehar

do you think that all Divisions were equally stronger/weaker or some Divisions were stronger and other ones were weaker?

What does equally stronger mean? I reread your sentence like 3 times and couldn't grasp what you were trying to say.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby josko.ri on Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:13 am

Dako wrote:
josko.ri wrote:@ Leehar

do you think that all Divisions were equally stronger/weaker or some Divisions were stronger and other ones were weaker?

What does equally stronger mean? I reread your sentence like 3 times and couldn't grasp what you were trying to say.


equally strong (or) weak. means that noone Division were stronger than any onther Division. true or false?
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Rodion on Fri Apr 01, 2011 12:06 pm

Imagine division's strenghts could be measured from 0 (weakest possible division) and 10.000 (strongest possible division).

Think of division A: what number would you give it?
Think of division B: what number would you give it?
Think of division C: what number would you give it?
Think of division D: what number would you give it?

If you didn't give everyone the same exact number, then divisions were not all equally strong in your opinion.
In my opinion, they were not all equal, but I'm not going to say which ones I considered stronger.

If you want to rank clans against divisions, you need to create several "Frankensteins" for it to work.

TSM vs. rest of Div D - rest of Div D is KORT + L4D + G1 + GR + TLW
G1 vs. rest of DiV D - rest of Div D is KORT + L4D + TSM + GR + TLW

As you can see, both of them faced "rest of div. D", but they were differents "rests", thus each should have its own division rating. In the end, we'd be comparing 24 clans vs. 24 different "rest of divisions" and giving it a weight factor of 90. I'm not sure if that would be different from comparing each clan vs. the other 5 clans with weight factors of 18 each, however.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby josko.ri on Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:15 pm

I wanted to say, that no matter in which Division someone played, it is important which clans they played with. as this system of calculation validate all historical data of all clans, then CL3 results should be validated according to clans faced and their ranking in moment when match was done, and it would be very unfair to just give 55 (wins achieved) vs 45 (average wins in Division) because some Divisions are weaker and some are stronger. numbers and rankings(from previous wars) of clans from particular Division will show which clans were weaker/stronger and therefore validate performance of a clan according to strenght of opponent's clan, not according to average number of wins in a Division.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby jpcloet on Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:19 pm

Rodion wrote:If you want to rank clans against divisions, you need to create several "Frankensteins" for it to work.


Nice term, but yes that is what I had to do before.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Dako on Fri Apr 01, 2011 2:12 pm

josko.ri wrote:equally strong (or) weak. means that noone Division were stronger than any onther Division. true or false?

Equally strong == equal (to me at least). I was just confused of you adding "stronger" and "weaker" because those adjectives presume you are comparing them to something else. Just my misunderstanding.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Leehar on Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:45 pm

josko.ri wrote:I wanted to say, that no matter in which Division someone played, it is important which clans they played with. as this system of calculation validate all historical data of all clans, then CL3 results should be validated according to clans faced and their ranking in moment when match was done, and it would be very unfair to just give 55 (wins achieved) vs 45 (average wins in Division) because some Divisions are weaker and some are stronger. numbers and rankings(from previous wars) of clans from particular Division will show which clans were weaker/stronger and therefore validate performance of a clan according to strenght of opponent's clan, not according to average number of wins in a Division.

But that was pretty much what was roughly done when Jpc drafted the divisions. I don't remember his process exactly but he did seed all the clans and divide them equally along the divisions. You're pretty much commenting on strengths after the fact, but that does wring somewhat hollow. Again there also all the other incremental factors like how much 18 game sets can truly count etc
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