Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Leehar on Fri Apr 01, 2011 7:36 am

Dako wrote:I didn't say you were wrong in your opinion on "each clan against score of the division" method. I haven't said your point didn't have sense ether. Please read my post more careful next time as it will save breath for both of us :).

Then I'll say it.
I vehemently disagree Josko, specially with the Div A/B weaker than C/D. It's almost like saying in the Cricket World Cup Group A was overall better than Group B because they had 3 semifinalists. After all, over there the 2nd in group B made the Final, while the 1st lost in the quarters. It all just depends on who performed better on the day with the conditions, and I think that analogy holds some truth over here as well.

Again, I'm not sure why I still have an issue with the rankings, but something still feels a bit off
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby josko.ri on Fri Apr 01, 2011 8:40 am

@ Leehar

do you think that all Divisions were equally stronger/weaker or some Divisions were stronger and other ones were weaker?
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby danryan on Fri Apr 01, 2011 8:55 am

Division C was clearly the strongest because as awesome as FOED are we didn't even make the playoffs. Quod erat demonstratum.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Dako on Fri Apr 01, 2011 9:29 am

josko.ri wrote:@ Leehar

do you think that all Divisions were equally stronger/weaker or some Divisions were stronger and other ones were weaker?

What does equally stronger mean? I reread your sentence like 3 times and couldn't grasp what you were trying to say.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby josko.ri on Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:13 am

Dako wrote:
josko.ri wrote:@ Leehar

do you think that all Divisions were equally stronger/weaker or some Divisions were stronger and other ones were weaker?

What does equally stronger mean? I reread your sentence like 3 times and couldn't grasp what you were trying to say.


equally strong (or) weak. means that noone Division were stronger than any onther Division. true or false?
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Rodion on Fri Apr 01, 2011 12:06 pm

Imagine division's strenghts could be measured from 0 (weakest possible division) and 10.000 (strongest possible division).

Think of division A: what number would you give it?
Think of division B: what number would you give it?
Think of division C: what number would you give it?
Think of division D: what number would you give it?

If you didn't give everyone the same exact number, then divisions were not all equally strong in your opinion.
In my opinion, they were not all equal, but I'm not going to say which ones I considered stronger.

If you want to rank clans against divisions, you need to create several "Frankensteins" for it to work.

TSM vs. rest of Div D - rest of Div D is KORT + L4D + G1 + GR + TLW
G1 vs. rest of DiV D - rest of Div D is KORT + L4D + TSM + GR + TLW

As you can see, both of them faced "rest of div. D", but they were differents "rests", thus each should have its own division rating. In the end, we'd be comparing 24 clans vs. 24 different "rest of divisions" and giving it a weight factor of 90. I'm not sure if that would be different from comparing each clan vs. the other 5 clans with weight factors of 18 each, however.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby josko.ri on Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:15 pm

I wanted to say, that no matter in which Division someone played, it is important which clans they played with. as this system of calculation validate all historical data of all clans, then CL3 results should be validated according to clans faced and their ranking in moment when match was done, and it would be very unfair to just give 55 (wins achieved) vs 45 (average wins in Division) because some Divisions are weaker and some are stronger. numbers and rankings(from previous wars) of clans from particular Division will show which clans were weaker/stronger and therefore validate performance of a clan according to strenght of opponent's clan, not according to average number of wins in a Division.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby jpcloet on Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:19 pm

Rodion wrote:If you want to rank clans against divisions, you need to create several "Frankensteins" for it to work.


Nice term, but yes that is what I had to do before.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Dako on Fri Apr 01, 2011 2:12 pm

josko.ri wrote:equally strong (or) weak. means that noone Division were stronger than any onther Division. true or false?

Equally strong == equal (to me at least). I was just confused of you adding "stronger" and "weaker" because those adjectives presume you are comparing them to something else. Just my misunderstanding.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby Leehar on Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:45 pm

josko.ri wrote:I wanted to say, that no matter in which Division someone played, it is important which clans they played with. as this system of calculation validate all historical data of all clans, then CL3 results should be validated according to clans faced and their ranking in moment when match was done, and it would be very unfair to just give 55 (wins achieved) vs 45 (average wins in Division) because some Divisions are weaker and some are stronger. numbers and rankings(from previous wars) of clans from particular Division will show which clans were weaker/stronger and therefore validate performance of a clan according to strenght of opponent's clan, not according to average number of wins in a Division.

But that was pretty much what was roughly done when Jpc drafted the divisions. I don't remember his process exactly but he did seed all the clans and divide them equally along the divisions. You're pretty much commenting on strengths after the fact, but that does wring somewhat hollow. Again there also all the other incremental factors like how much 18 game sets can truly count etc
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby josko.ri on Fri Apr 01, 2011 5:25 pm

Leehar wrote:
josko.ri wrote:I wanted to say, that no matter in which Division someone played, it is important which clans they played with. as this system of calculation validate all historical data of all clans, then CL3 results should be validated according to clans faced and their ranking in moment when match was done, and it would be very unfair to just give 55 (wins achieved) vs 45 (average wins in Division) because some Divisions are weaker and some are stronger. numbers and rankings(from previous wars) of clans from particular Division will show which clans were weaker/stronger and therefore validate performance of a clan according to strenght of opponent's clan, not according to average number of wins in a Division.

But that was pretty much what was roughly done when Jpc drafted the divisions. I don't remember his process exactly but he did seed all the clans and divide them equally along the divisions. You're pretty much commenting on strengths after the fact, but that does wring somewhat hollow. Again there also all the other incremental factors like how much 18 game sets can truly count etc

it has decay factor, what is (if I realized good) parameter of2 variables (time passed and strength of opponent), and I totally support that system.

for small number of games, it has Weight factor, so # of games played, be it 18 or 60, is inluded in calculation like it should be.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking for All Wars (NEW Graphs!)

Postby FarangDemon on Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:43 pm

I'd prefer to discuss the algorithm itself in this thread and have a second thread devoted to maintaining an up-to-date ranking using this system.

The algorithm itself

I'm happy to discuss the method, and maintain and improve my script but I don't want to maintain the Clan War data that it runs on. And I don't want people complaining to me that I did or did not use such and such data. CC isn't comping me in any way for this, so I will only do what I think is fun. I've changed the name of this thread to "Algorithm" to reflect this.

An official ranking based on the algorithm

This would be the thread that discusses data and contains updated ranking lists / graphs.

You'll need someone to maintain the clan war data file and I can link to it from my script page. Then whoever wants to generate an up-to-date ranking can just click on the link, copy and paste the data into my script and churn it out whenever. Or if I improve my script, I can eliminate the need to open the file and manually copy and paste.

This is the format for each line (Clan1, Clan2, Clan1 Wins, Clan2 Wins, Date) separated by tabs.

http://www.killersapp.com/AllData.txt

The file below has the same war results, but each war has a description of whether it was Clan League 1,2,3 or a regular clan war. This should help to refine dates. If you want accurate results, somebody is going to have to look up when each clan war from Season 1 and 2 actually ended (I'd choose 3 weeks after the 2nd and final Home/Away set between the two clans). Dates from Season 3 are pretty good already.

http://www.killersapp.com/AllDataMerged.xls
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby FarangDemon on Mon Apr 11, 2011 11:48 pm

Ok looks like there is no interest at the moment to use the algorithm to create an official ranking.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby Qwert on Tue Apr 12, 2011 1:56 pm

lol, so all these job,its that someone else work ranking instead you.
Look on mine elo ranking, i doing all job, and these is how you also need to do.
Jpcloet all ready have official ranking.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby FarangDemon on Sat Apr 16, 2011 4:41 am

qwert wrote:lol, so all these job,its that someone else work ranking instead you.
Look on mine elo ranking, i doing all job, and these is how you also need to do.
Jpcloet all ready have official ranking.


All I want is somebody else to maintain a data set at a fixed URL that we ALL can use (in the format I can directly use, or in a different format that I could write a script to parse). If there are 10 people with different ranking systems, it's dumb for each person to have to maintain the data from the exact same games separately. Very inefficient.

I'm happy to use the algorithm to post updated rankings now and then, though I've published the website, making it possible for anybody to do this whenever they want. All you need is your own data to paste in. All calculations are automated using user-defined parameters.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby MichelSableheart on Sun Apr 17, 2011 1:51 am

I thought an official list of clanwar results was already maintained by the CD's? It can be found here.

Or is there information missing from that thread that you need for your rankings, FarangDemon?
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby FarangDemon on Sun Apr 17, 2011 7:09 am

http://www.killersapp.com/AllData.txt

This is the format I'd like. Just one line for every clan war. I'd also like to include results from Clan League.

If someone could maintain that data, then I or anybody else who wants to develop a ranking script could simply link to that URL so they always have the most up to date clan war results.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby Leehar on Mon Apr 18, 2011 11:47 am

FarangDemon wrote:http://www.killersapp.com/AllData.txt

This is the format I'd like. Just one line for every clan war. I'd also like to include results from Clan League.

If someone could maintain that data, then I or anybody else who wants to develop a ranking script could simply link to that URL so they always have the most up to date clan war results.

I'm sure Jp or one of the CD's have a Data Set that they use for their own purposes?
Pm one of them and ask, I'm not certain if it'll be exactly in the format you want, but you could piggy-back on it if need be.

I like how you've done all this leg-work in getting the script up and running, but I really doubt you'll get any takers on using this to develop a ranking of their own, it really would be best if you developed one yourself for visibility purposes.
I know you have played around with it, and I saw all the graphs etc that you showed, but if instead of the cl3 one you have in your OP, you could develop a complete tabular picture there so that we have a better idea of the end result we'll be looking at, I think that would best help this continue further. I think some of us have already mentioned some aspects of the results that seem a bit 'off' to us, so if we can work on that aspect it would be conducive to a better framework I feel.

This is as opposed to each one of us doing our own number-crunching, which is what I think you're suggesting?
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby jpcloet on Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:50 pm

We have a spreadsheet of all wars (no leagues)

Columns are :

War Number
Date
Wining Clan
Losing Clan
Winner Score
Loser Score
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby FarangDemon on Mon Apr 25, 2011 2:14 am

Jpcloet, can you please provide me a URL for that clan war results file you mentioned? Can you / do you regularly update the file it is linked to?

I will update my website with a link to that URL so I can always automatically get the most up to date data. I know you provided me one a few months ago, but it's been flushed from my inbox, and anyway I wasn't sure if you were maintaining it.

Also, can you maintain a file that includes all wars + clan leagues wars? I and some others are interested in analyzing the complete data set.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby FarangDemon on Mon Apr 25, 2011 2:29 am

Leehar wrote:I like how you've done all this leg-work in getting the script up and running,


Thanks, Leehar. I enjoyed programming it, especially the graphing part. :D

Leehar wrote:
but I really doubt you'll get any takers on using this to develop a ranking of their own, it really would be best if you developed one yourself for visibility purposes. I know you have played around with it, and I saw all the graphs etc that you showed, but if instead of the cl3 one you have in your OP, you could develop a complete tabular picture there so that we have a better idea of the end result we'll be looking at, I think that would best help this continue further.


viewtopic.php?f=438&t=140929&start=15#p3088157

On page 2 I have graphs based on all clan wars from jpcloet plus clan league 1-3. The picture doesn't get more complete than that. I just reread it now and realized I had not stated that it was based on all data. I have now amended this in the top of the post.

Leehar wrote:I think some of us have already mentioned some aspects of the results that seem a bit 'off' to us, so if we can work on that aspect it would be conducive to a better framework I feel.


If you look at the formula and believe that the formula is straightforward and fair, you trust the results because you know they come from a sound formula.

It could be that some of our perceptions are based on popular opinions that do not truly reflect performance.

Anyway, to help us understand and gain confidence in the model, I've added two things to the script:

1) Automatic Accuracy Measurement of the model (in terms of how often higher ranked clans actually win)
2) Breakdown of how each clan war affected the clan's rating

I am still motivated enough to help explain how this works (if it's still necessary) and provide rankings as clan wars conclude, but I am not motivated enough to update the clan war data itself every time a war concludes. That's why I've asked jpcloet for a URL containing clan wars to link to.

Leehar wrote:This is as opposed to each one of us doing our own number-crunching, which is what I think you're suggesting?


No number crunching necessary. Provide me a URL with complete clan war results and I will use it myself. Other people can then either use my script with varying parameters or develop their own script which could be completely different, but still based on the same data set provided by jpcloet's URL.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby Qwert on Mon Apr 25, 2011 4:48 am

in mine ranking you have all results from 2011, if this can help you in some way
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby FarangDemon on Sat Apr 30, 2011 12:16 am

I've written this great script that automatically calculates rankings using an objective method (customizable with many different parameters), creates graphs, measures its own accuracy, has transparency (shows how individual war results contributed to each clan's performance)....

Now if I could only find a single file containing up to date clan war results (with dates of completion) in chronological order that can be automatically parsed by my script (i.e. it is tabulated in excel)...

Jpcloet, can you please provide me an up to date excel file containing results like you did last month? I don't want to sift through the forums creating my own tabulation of results if you have already done so.

Please please please could someone tabulate the results in excel, post it to a URL somewhere and periodically update it, using the same URL?

Thanks for offer qwert, but you don't have dates of completion, plus I think jpcloet already has this tabulated in excel and I wouldn't want to duplicate the work of entering into excel for no reason.

If nobody from the CC community wants to meet me halfway here to provide a tabulated results file (actually less than halfway considering the time it took me to write the script), then you will have to remain satisfied with the popular opinion-based ranking systems and qwert's score-based system.

However, I think the clan community deserves a more accurate, objective, results-based representation of clan performance. I've done my part (develop a script that automatically provides all this based on clan results data) and all I'm asking is that somebody from the CC Clan leadership provide and regularly maintain a clan war results file that can be used by me or anybody else who wants to develop a script to automatically calculate rankings.

Before someone responds that this data already exists, please understand the difference between what I want: a single excel file that contains all the clan war results; and what is currently available to me: I would need to spend hours reading the clan forums tabulating it myself every week. Since I believe this is already done, I don't want to replicate this. I'm just asking that the results from this be regularly posted in an excel file to a URL so that I or other developers can always reference the latest data in our scripts.
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby Gold Knight on Sun May 01, 2011 6:35 pm

I wish I could be of assistance, but my computer skills are very limited and I depend on JP for all my clan info... Im thinking he would be your best bet, but right now he's really busy between his CC activities and attempts to maintain some sort of life outside of CC :o

Im sure he'll chime in soon to give an answer though. ;)
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Re: Algorithm of 400 Clan Ranking Algorithm

Postby FarangDemon on Wed May 04, 2011 9:00 am

jpcloet, if you are willing to maintain this clan war results excel file online, I can help by writing a ranking script for you that would automate your leap ladder clan ranking system, if you have not already done so. Then all you would need to do to generate successive clan rankings according to your system would be to update the excel file and then click a button.

No rush, I'm travelling now so I wouldn't have time to work on this until next month.
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