THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby Chariot of Fire on Mon Apr 01, 2013 10:41 pm

Yeah, coz it's well-known that we can consistently roll better dice than our opponents 9 times out of 10 :roll:
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby josko.ri on Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:19 am

Chariot of Fire wrote:Yeah, coz it's well-known that we can consistently roll better dice than our opponents 9 times out of 10 :roll:

Nope, with that high skill difference, in average 5 of 10 times you will roll better dice, and 4 of 10 times you will outplay them even with worse dice.
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby eddie2 on Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:42 am

Doc_Brown wrote:It's an interesting proposal. Let me offer a variation on it: How about a super-cup tournament that will host the winners of CCup, CL, ACC, and NCC? Granted, now we're talking 2 additional wars, but a competition between those winners is likely to be a pretty good event. That way we're not talking about a potential #1 vs #25. You could see a #1 win CCup, a #4 win CL, a #7 win ACC, and a new #15 or so win NCC.

I realize this is starting to get off topic again. Since Eddie had brought up a top v. bottom type event, I thought this could take a form like that. If CCup retains a strict ranking-based bracket structure and starts to cater more to top clans while the ACC is more oriented to the lower ranked clans. Anyway. Not trying to push either way, I just wanted to throw out an idea that could incorporate Eddie's suggestion.


i like what you are trying to say doc brown but i do not think it would work like that... top ranked clans are already trying to delay this event due to still taking part in last years event.. i brought this idea in mainly to reduce the timeline and fairness into this event which will give all clans some form of chance to progress...

and josko you are saying about top clans bringing there main game against lower ranked clans so as to win 90 percent.. So if a lower ranked clan produced there home set as luxumberg quads doodle quads which could result if they get first go and average dice in first shot (eliminating you first to go player) they could actually win 2 games without you even getting a shot...

and josko this is not the same as option 3... option 3 was still a event that would last longer than a year...
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby Chariot of Fire on Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:52 am

josko.ri wrote:
Chariot of Fire wrote:Yeah, coz it's well-known that we can consistently roll better dice than our opponents 9 times out of 10 :roll:

Nope, with that high skill difference, in average 5 of 10 times you will roll better dice, and 4 of 10 times you will outplay them even with worse dice.


Have to just correct you there mate. If we get better dice 50% of the time (fair average, right) it means we get worse dice in 5 of 10 games That means we'd have to beat them tactically in 4 out of 5 games, not 4 out of 10.

Whichever way the numbers are computed, the simple fact is a win rate of 90% is unfeasible. Not when the oppo choose half the maps.
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby josko.ri on Tue Apr 02, 2013 4:22 am

Chariot of Fire wrote:
josko.ri wrote:
Chariot of Fire wrote:Yeah, coz it's well-known that we can consistently roll better dice than our opponents 9 times out of 10 :roll:

Nope, with that high skill difference, in average 5 of 10 times you will roll better dice, and 4 of 10 times you will outplay them even with worse dice.


Have to just correct you there mate. If we get better dice 50% of the time (fair average, right) it means we get worse dice in 5 of 10 games That means we'd have to beat them tactically in 4 out of 5 games, not 4 out of 10.

Whichever way the numbers are computed, the simple fact is a win rate of 90% is unfeasible. Not when the oppo choose half the maps.

You are again wrong, because the same like you expect to win 4 of 5 with bad dice, you can also lose some of the 5 with "better" dice. Did it never happen to you to lose when you rolled better dice? So still, You need in average win 4 of 10 where you have lower dice, and 5 of 10 when you have better dice but you still need to play well to make it win because it is also possible to lose with better dice.

However it is, the same is to everyone. We have just achieved 100% win rate in away field vs #37 clan when they chose ALL the maps, so if we are able to do so, then you for sure should be able to win over 90% on half home half away field vs #43 clan if you wish to jump over us in scoreboard. If not, well second place in scoreboard is still a good rank. ;)

eddie2 wrote:and josko this is not the same as option 3... option 3 was still a event that would last longer than a year...

Aaand again you are wrong. 25 clans in each tournament (which you proposed) would need 5 rounds to be finished, plus additional round where winners of each tournament play for ultimate winner = 6 total rounds. Option 3 also had 6 total rounds, so how it makes my proposal longer than your proposal? In fact, my proposal would made tournament shorter than 1 year because new edition would be possible to start before the old edition ends, because semifinalists and finalists of previous edition would not play 2 opening rounds of new edition. With your proposal it is impossible, we would need to wait to finish all 5+1 rounds before starting new edition, so my proposal would actually last way LESS than you proposal. As I said, not everyone is able to read between lines and therefore it is not weird that they make wrong conclusions.
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby Chariot of Fire on Tue Apr 02, 2013 4:34 am

*****
Last edited by Chariot of Fire on Tue Apr 02, 2013 4:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby jetsetwilly on Tue Apr 02, 2013 4:35 am

An interesting discussion gents but take it elsewhere please.
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby Chariot of Fire on Tue Apr 02, 2013 4:57 am

josko.ri wrote:
Chariot of Fire wrote:
josko.ri wrote:
Chariot of Fire wrote:Yeah, coz it's well-known that we can consistently roll better dice than our opponents 9 times out of 10 :roll:

Nope, with that high skill difference, in average 5 of 10 times you will roll better dice, and 4 of 10 times you will outplay them even with worse dice.


Have to just correct you there mate. If we get better dice 50% of the time (fair average, right) it means we get worse dice in 5 of 10 games That means we'd have to beat them tactically in 4 out of 5 games, not 4 out of 10.

Whichever way the numbers are computed, the simple fact is a win rate of 90% is unfeasible. Not when the oppo choose half the maps.

You are again wrong, because the same like you expect to win 4 of 5 with bad dice, you can also lose some of the 5 with "better" dice. Did it never happen to you to lose when you rolled better dice? So still, You need in average win 4 of 10 where you have lower dice, and 5 of 10 when you have better dice but you still need to play well to make it win because it is also possible to lose with better dice.

However it is, the same is to everyone. We have just achieved 100% win rate in away field vs #37 clan when they chose ALL the maps, so if we are able to do so, then you for sure should be able to win over 90% on half home half away field vs #43 clan if you wish to jump over us in scoreboard. If not, well second place in scoreboard is still a good rank. ;)

eddie2 wrote:and josko this is not the same as option 3... option 3 was still a event that would last longer than a year...

Aaand again you are wrong. 25 clans in each tournament (which you proposed) would need 5 rounds to be finished, plus additional round where winners of each tournament play for ultimate winner = 6 total rounds. Option 3 also had 6 total rounds, so how it makes my proposal longer than your proposal? In fact, my proposal would made tournament shorter than 1 year because new edition would be possible to start before the old edition ends, because semifinalists and finalists of previous edition would not play 2 opening rounds of new edition. With your proposal it is impossible, we would need to wait to finish all 5+1 rounds before starting new edition, so my proposal would actually last way LESS than you proposal. As I said, not everyone is able to read between lines and therefore it is not weird that they make wrong conclusions.


You are again wrong, because the same like you expect to win 4 of 5 with bad dice, you can also lose some of the 5 with "better" dice.


This is my whole point, so I am not 'wrong', you are. We have to assume that we will win the 5 games in which we get better dice (so your statement "you can lose some of the games in which you get better dice" makes no sense, otherwise you are implying our task then becomes even harder!). The fact we would have to start by winning our 50% of 'better dice' games is a given. That leaves 5 games in which the opposition get better dice, therefore we would have to win 4 of those 5 games against the run of the dice to achieve the 90% win rate. We have to win 100% of games in which the dice favour us, and 80% of the games in which they do not. Simple.

We have just achieved 100% win rate in away field vs #37 clan when they chose ALL the maps, so if we are able to do so, then you for sure should be able to win over 90% on half home half away field vs #43 clan if you wish to jump over us in scoreboard


Does your head fit through the door or are you desk-bound? So you won what, 8 out of 8 games? Hardly a large sample size is it. Freak results occur from time-to-time. I'm talking about the practice of purposefully pitting a high-ranked clan against a low-ranked clan - something you have vociferously spoken out about too. I fail to see the logic of your argument, or are you insinuating it's possible for a clan to maintain a win rate of 80+%? If so I shall happily stick some stats in your face.
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby jetsetwilly on Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:02 am

Ahem
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby silversun6 on Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:21 am

common . just measure your dicks sizes already
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby niMic on Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:45 am

Josko is from the Balkans. I don't think we need to measure to know who would win.
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby silversun6 on Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:55 am

niMic wrote:Josko is from the Balkans. I don't think we need to measure to know who would win.


now lets start a 19 pages "discussion" about geography, anatomy, religion, mathematics, aliens and Nazis...
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby crispybits on Tue Apr 02, 2013 6:08 am

Divine nazi alien time travelling zombie scientists? Sounds good to me :-P
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby Chariot of Fire on Tue Apr 02, 2013 6:17 am

crispybits wrote:Divine nazi alien time travelling zombie scientists? Sounds good to me :-P


Reminds me of the English professor who claimed that most best-sellers contained elements of religion, royalty, sex and mystery. He then gave an assignment to his class to write something containing those four key elements. After just one minute a student handed in his work. It read "Good God!" said the duchess, "I'm pregnant. I wonder whodunnit?"
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Re: THE OFFICIAL CC CONQUEROR’S CUP 4

Postby josko.ri on Tue Apr 02, 2013 6:32 am

Chariot of Fire wrote:I fail to see the logic of your argument, or are you insinuating it's possible for a clan to maintain a win rate of 80+%? If so I shall happily stick some stats in your face.


Correct, I am insinuating that if you are player (in small sample) or clan (in big sample) who wants to be on top ranking place, then you need to be able to maintain a win rate of 80+% against average or lower than average opponents.

To prove my statements, I now made research about winning % in my team games from recent competitions (CL4 Phases 2,3,4, CL4-Divisional Cup, CC3 semis, CC2 semis and finals) where are included only matches played vs current top 8 clans. Result is 89-29 (75,4%). The lowest in CC3 vs TOFU 13-7 (65%) and the highest in CL4 Phase 3 vs EMP, AOC, PACK 15-2 (88,2%).

So, If it is possible to achieve over 75% win rate vs opponents who are top 8 and who have never lost a single 40+ war challenge vs any clan ranked lower than 9, how is then impossible to have more than 80% win rate vs mid ranked clans or 90% win rate vs low ranked clans? It is more than possible, and the given example has sample size of 118 games, so it is for sure not selective chosen good streak of results.

Actually, for me it is not weird that you think it is impossible for a clan to maintain so high win rate. If your are not able to achieve more than 6-12 (33%) and 7-11 (39%) scores in the most recent 2 wars vs PACK and KORT, it is really not surprising that in your opinion maintaining win rate of more than 80% sounds like science fiction.
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