NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby barterer2002 on Tue Apr 20, 2010 11:56 am

chipv wrote:
barterer2002 wrote:No, I've got my desktop and my laptop. I generally take my games first thing in the morning on the laptop which doesn't have all the add ons installed and through the day take them on the desktop. As I think the numbers are reversed from what I said, 1/2 to 2/3 of them are on this one with the rest on the laptop not being recorded.


The dice are recorded in a file on your PC. So your desktop will have a separate file than your laptop.
The dice recorded are from the turns you have taken on that PC.

So if you are running 2 scripts on 2 computers, you will have different data on both as you are taking different turns on both.


Right, I understood that, that's why I was telling you it wasn't every turn and why I have more attacks that defense (not running the script on laptop)
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby chipv on Tue Apr 20, 2010 12:34 pm

barterer2002 wrote:Right, I understood that, that's why I was telling you it wasn't every turn and why I have more attacks that defense (not running the script on laptop)


Totally my bad - too used to everyone only posting when complaining so managed to read your first line as a complaint when it was only info.

Sorry!
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby RADAGA on Wed Apr 21, 2010 10:46 am

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a 5 in a row 3x1 loss, folowed shortly by a 3 in a row 3x1 ...

As usual, trying to break paying members bonuses...
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby barterer2002 on Thu Apr 22, 2010 6:50 pm

chipv wrote:
barterer2002 wrote:Right, I understood that, that's why I was telling you it wasn't every turn and why I have more attacks that defense (not running the script on laptop)


Totally my bad - too used to everyone only posting when complaining so managed to read your first line as a complaint when it was only info.

Sorry!


No worries chip. Trust me, I appreciate all that you do far to much to complain, anything I do will be for information only :D
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby RADAGA on Thu Apr 29, 2010 9:16 am

Image

Okay, you say I complain too much, but lets see... where should I begin?

To get four dice get the same number in a row (any of them) is a one-in-215 four-dice-throw chance

The sample have 231 dice (lets say about 57 groups of four dice).

Line 1, four twos in a row
LInes 5 and 6, four fours in a row
Line 8, FIVE sixes in a row
Line 8 and 9 FIVE fives in a row

So, something that should occour once every 215 four-dice-throws happened FOUR times in a 57 four-dice-throws - thats about 6% occourence of an event that have a mere ZERO POINT FIVE percent chance of happening.

While this does not prove the dice "are not random" they surely are something to be investigated.

note that I am not complaining about battle results, I am simply checking out a serie of data and realizing things that were not expected to have occoured once evry five of such samples occoured FOUR times on a single one.

FOUR arrangements of 4-of-a-kind are to be expected to be seen on samples of 1.155 4-dice throws, and yet here we see it on 57 of such

Not to mention two of them were a FIVE in a row - chance for any five of a kind - once in 1295 throws

So, anyone care about it?
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby Catarah on Mon May 03, 2010 6:41 am

awesome tool.

but before anyone goes complaining the dices are streaky when one of their games has streakiness, i´d like to add that reviewing game data is only usefull if you add the data of all other games too.

if 1 in 3 appears streaky thats a whole different thing then if 1 in 50 appears streaky, yet if you only post games in which you had weird streaks, it´ll appear to be wrong.

that said, great idea, awesome!
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby RADAGA on Tue May 04, 2010 5:10 am

Catarah wrote:awesome tool.

but before anyone goes complaining the dices are streaky when one of their games has streakiness, i´d like to add that reviewing game data is only usefull if you add the data of all other games too.

if 1 in 3 appears streaky thats a whole different thing then if 1 in 50 appears streaky, yet if you only post games in which you had weird streaks, it´ll appear to be wrong.

that said, great idea, awesome!



Even if that 1 in 50 shows things that should only occour once in 1.000 times?

This excuse that "all data must be gathered, no matter the individual anomalies" to me almost sound like no one care to really look at those anomalies because they know about them and dont care.
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby Chuuuuck on Tue May 04, 2010 7:36 am

RADAGA wrote:Image

Okay, you say I complain too much, but lets see... where should I begin?

To get four dice get the same number in a row (any of them) is a one-in-215 four-dice-throw chance

The sample have 231 dice (lets say about 57 groups of four dice).

Line 1, four twos in a row
LInes 5 and 6, four fours in a row
Line 8, FIVE sixes in a row
Line 8 and 9 FIVE fives in a row

So, something that should occour once every 215 four-dice-throws happened FOUR times in a 57 four-dice-throws - thats about 6% occourence of an event that have a mere ZERO POINT FIVE percent chance of happening.

While this does not prove the dice "are not random" they surely are something to be investigated.

note that I am not complaining about battle results, I am simply checking out a serie of data and realizing things that were not expected to have occoured once evry five of such samples occoured FOUR times on a single one.

FOUR arrangements of 4-of-a-kind are to be expected to be seen on samples of 1.155 4-dice throws, and yet here we see it on 57 of such

Not to mention two of them were a FIVE in a row - chance for any five of a kind - once in 1295 throws

So, anyone care about it?


Quit complaining. If you know anything about statistics then you would know there is nothing to be shown from 57 dice throws. When you have a sample size of a million plus and your numbers are still around 6% when they should be 0.5%, then you might actually have a case, until then, go read a book about statistics.

Random dice with a 0.5% chance of something happening does not mean that it will happen 0.5% of the time in every sample. In fact, it has a greater than 90% chance of not even really being close to 0.5% in the sample size you are talking about.
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby Chuuuuck on Tue May 04, 2010 7:38 am

Hey chip, great script.

A quick question, I saw in the first post you say something about it recording defensive dice and then in later posts it said something about it only recording turns you take with that computer. Does it record defensive dice when I am not there during another players turn? Or does it only record my dice throws from my turns?
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby chipv on Tue May 04, 2010 11:11 am

Chuuuuck wrote:Hey chip, great script.

A quick question, I saw in the first post you say something about it recording defensive dice and then in later posts it said something about it only recording turns you take with that computer. Does it record defensive dice when I am not there during another players turn? Or does it only record my dice throws from my turns?


It is only able to record dice from your turns.
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby jimboston on Thu May 06, 2010 1:34 pm

RADAGA wrote:Even if that 1 in 50 shows things that should only occour once in 1.000 times?

This excuse that "all data must be gathered, no matter the individual anomalies" to me almost sound like no one care to really look at those anomalies because they know about them and dont care.


OMFG

Please go back to high school and learn a little mathematics and statistics.
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby RADAGA on Mon May 10, 2010 11:28 am

yeah, right. So it is a valid argument that you should expect to hit a jackpot everytime you enter a cassino, just because millions of bets are being made there every day?

To me, it would be much more likely to say: you might SEE a few jackpots with a few people if you stay on the cassino long enough. But if you play only once or twice, odds arer YOU wont get any jackpot yourself, no matter how much OTHER people roll.

Here, you say that because OTHER people roll a lot, YOU should get a lot of anomalies.

Who need to get back to school?
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby RADAGA on Sat May 15, 2010 8:12 am

Image

5 3x1 losses in a row.

Probability - less than one in 500

Not to mention the twelve (in twenty-five) 3x1 losses that round.

As I say - it is not the average that is the main problem, the main problem is those streaks - they happen on a daily basis...
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby the.killing.44 on Sat May 15, 2010 9:24 am

ignore the 9/12 wins, why dontcha
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby RADAGA on Fri May 21, 2010 1:29 pm

9 of 12 3x1, you say? yeah, 75% wins while it should be 66% not impressive
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby phantomzero on Fri May 21, 2010 1:39 pm

RADAGA wrote:yeah, right. So it is a valid argument that you should expect to hit a jackpot everytime you enter a cassino, just because millions of bets are being made there every day?

To me, it would be much more likely to say: you might SEE a few jackpots with a few people if you stay on the cassino long enough. But if you play only once or twice, odds arer YOU wont get any jackpot yourself, no matter how much OTHER people roll.

Here, you say that because OTHER people roll a lot, YOU should get a lot of anomalies.

Who need to get back to school?


Lol. It is possible to win 2 jackpots in a casino back to back. I've done it. That doesn't mean that the machines or the system is screwed up. I've seen people win on their first pull and I've seen people never win anything in days. IT"S RANDOM!!!
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby Mach1tosh on Mon May 31, 2010 8:11 am

I haven't used a streak analyzer but I can tell you that my attacking dice have been the sorriest collection of 1s, 2s and 3s in game play over the last couple of days. It really has me reconsidering continuing to play this site. :-k
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby RADAGA on Fri Jun 04, 2010 11:46 am

Image

Once more, 5 3x1 losses in a row!

I dont know why I dont play the lottery, since I get that much curve-tail results....
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby Falkomagno on Fri Jun 04, 2010 7:08 pm

your numbers seem normal to me. 18 rolls is not a decent sample thought. In the other hand, you seem to be right about the 3v1 lossing. It seems to be a curse for everyone.

Try to put the information with at least 100 rolls, and then we can analyze tendencies.
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby yeti_c on Sat Jun 05, 2010 2:43 pm

RADAGA - Please post any comments about the dice in this thread

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=114413

The current thread that you are pretty much in danger of spamming is about the tool that is helping you analyze your dice.

C.

PS - Chip - is there a way to verify that a user hasn't manually changed their Dice to "prove" a theory?
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby RADAGA on Sat Jun 05, 2010 3:01 pm

Okay, now when there IS a tool to show sometimes there are a streakness, and this tool begins to uncover it, you accuse someone of having the trouble to change a script to prove a theory?

Now, that´s either paranoy or denial, imo.

There is no need to tamper the script, one can photoshop the screenshot. But why have this trouble? To create a war where there should be none? I post the things i find not to cause hassle, but to try to show a perceived flaw, in hope it can be fixed, someday.

To spend hours editting each and every screenshot (not to mention making the calculations to tamper it "right" and make ends meet) just to make a point where there should be none woud be sick.

Not to mention I DO have better (and worse:work) things to do with my time.
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby yeti_c on Sat Jun 05, 2010 4:33 pm

Me [SIC] paranoy? - I was asking someone else a question.

Once again - please take your Dice Streaks comments to the indicated thread - this thread is about the script itself - and not the results.

C.
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby qwertylpc on Sun Jun 06, 2010 7:03 pm

very good script i do have 1 suggestion have the overall layout like the dize analyzer so you can combine two and have less to install and manage etc.
-qwertylpc :D 8-) :lol:

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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby sherkaner on Wed Jun 30, 2010 3:38 pm

One question: Does the script count 2-0 win, 2-0 win, 1-1 draw, 2-0 win as 7 consecutive troops defeated? I'd guess he should treat it as 2 streaks (though it's unclear how a script should do that exactly).
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Re: NEW Greasemonkey Script: Dice Streaks

Postby chipv on Wed Jun 30, 2010 3:53 pm

sherkaner wrote:One question: Does the script count 2-0 win, 2-0 win, 1-1 draw, 2-0 win as 7 consecutive troops defeated? I'd guess he should treat it as 2 streaks (though it's unclear how a script should do that exactly).


In your example 7 troops have been killed with consecutive dice rolls so yes it counts as 7 consecutive troops defeated.

It's easy to treat this as 2 streaks but I don't think that is intuitive. The objective is to see how consecutive dice rolls fare.
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