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Jippd wrote:I go by the general rule of thumb that every card is worth 3.33 troops on average for flat rate. I assume I will cash 10 sets which doesn't always happen. I am also not taking into account bonus troops for having a bold card which certainly does happen. On the average I say it balances out and for the most part a set cashed at 5 cards in flat rate would net you close to an average of 10 troops.
So if the card costs you more than 3.33 troops to get you have a net loss.
AyeTrain wrote:You get a maximum of 10 for a set, but a minimum of 4: so all that work to cash in, and you may only get 4 from it.
FamBonnet wrote:Ha ha DY. The math doesn't seem simple to me but I'll take your word for it as your result is about what I expected. As for the extra bonus troops, I figure - % of map I control x 2 for each card.
You have 21 possibilities for the types of cards you have. Beside each number is the likelihood of that occuring.
31/81*6 + 50/81*10 = 8.469
Each card is worth a third of that, or 2.823!!!
DoomYoshi wrote:FamBonnet wrote:Ha ha DY. The math doesn't seem simple to me but I'll take your word for it as your result is about what I expected. As for the extra bonus troops, I figure - % of map I control x 2 for each card.
That`s exactly approximately right!
DoomYoshi wrote:Let's say it's a 20 round limit no spoils game on Feudal Epic (I don't really like the other Feudal map). This is a really simple example, and helps me illustrate a concept.
First, assume the game will go to round limit. How many spaces do you want to attack?
So, calculate how many rounds of deploy you will get for a bonus. On round 1, its 19. Then calculate expected lost troops.
A bonus of 1 requires killing 4 troops spread over 2 territories. So, it takes 5 troops. It is only worth it in the first 15 rounds. There is no excuse to not take your entire 1-6 of the kingdom.
The map is symmetrical in that everyone has the same 10-1-1-1-5 to get through for the village bonus. That would lose an estimated 18.5 troops. It only takes 7 rounds of village bonus to win that back.
The real question is: if everyone goes for village bonus, how do you deal with it?
I would say that if the first person to arrive at the village takes it for 8-10 rounds and then pulls out to let the other guy get the bonus for a bit, that would be the optimal strategy. What does game theory say about the likelihood of this?
Do you use expected worth calculations in your day-to-day games?
In non-round limit games, its pretty simple except you can only calculate relative worth, not absolute.
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