How can I avoid the game being rigged?

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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby kennys777 on Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:25 am

I appreciate the discussion. Just random things that cross my mind at times, and lately I have noticed how poor my dice have been, but again, they are within the normal range overall since stats started...
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Ghost20021 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:00 pm

Balch wrote:I've played a little over a dozen games, and these are common, if not expected results:

-My 7 attacking 1, lose all 6 men.
-Their 10 attacking my 10, they lose 0 men and capture.
-Their 25 attacking my 15, they lose 1 man and capture.
-It takes 5 cards for me to get a set, every set, every game.
-I have a seen a lone defender roll a 6 5 times in a row.

This is the majority of the game, every game. What the f*ck kind of acid high were you on when you wrote this programming?



I know how frustrating it can seem when you are constantly losing units and doing very little damage in return. And I do agree that the coding isn't 100% random. I've run into players who can completely take out an evenly matched opponent without losing more then 10% of their force... I've also been that player. It happens.

Think of it like Black Jack. I once saw a guy get dealt Black Jack or dealt 20 for 17 consecutive hands. Dealt mind you, now draw. During that time no one left the table or came to the table. I didn't take Stats, but I'm guessing the odds of that happening are pretty damn slim. Probably even less then what was happening to you. Sometimes people have hot streaks. Sometimes people have cold streaks. The thing is, we naturally remember the negatives more then we remember the positives.

Right now, I feel like I am in a losing slump. I kill 3 for every 5 I lose. And it's easy to forget the time a few games ago when I killed 15 units and only lost 2. Or killed 10 and lost 1. Or killed 12 and lost 3.

Maybe you just need to be more conservative. If you lose 6 troops in an attack and your opponent only loses one, stop attacking.

You also have to remember that the defense always has the advantage. Always. That's why people attack 20 v 10 and not 10 v 10.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby SirSebstar on Fri Jan 11, 2013 2:24 pm

Ghost20021 wrote:....... And I do agree that the coding isn't 100% random. I've run into players who can completely take out an evenly matched opponent without losing more then 10% of their force... I've also been that player. It happens.

eh, thats the textbook of randomness.. like seriously... if everybody can get those dice, and there is no fixed pattern in them, then thats random... if you expect a 6 every dice you roll or all your 6-1 attacks to work, then thats no longer random


Ghost20021 wrote:You also have to remember that the defense always has the advantage. Always. That's why people attack 20 v 10 and not 10 v 10.

You also need to remember that the ATTACKER!!!!!!!!!!! has the ADVANTAGE!!. ALWAYS (when hitting 3 with 4)!!!!
thats why people attack 10-20. You dont expect to win that very often, but you can on average expect to do more damage then you get, as an attacker.....
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Larry46 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:05 pm

ok, edit by me................my dice stink, I suck, I drop in bad position on purpuse and yes I'm a bad player.................nothing random about it. Sorry Conquerclub you're the BEST!
Last edited by Larry46 on Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby SirSebstar on Fri Jan 11, 2013 5:18 pm

Larry46 wrote:this fucking site and it's so called "random" dice is rigged................F U C K Off Conquerclub!

eh Larry46, whats up with you man? Why do you say such a thing. How is it rigged, who would profit from it. Its not rigged, period.
If you lose, its because you are a bad player, or because you had bad luck on crucial moments. Tough dude, but it happens.
So why this then?
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Dukasaur on Fri Jan 11, 2013 6:01 pm

People have a misconception that "random" means "even distribution". It doesn't.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby jefjef on Sat Jan 12, 2013 12:13 am

SirSebstar wrote:
Larry46 wrote:this fucking site and it's so called "random" dice is rigged................F U C K Off Conquerclub!

blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. eh.


You go Larry!!!!!
This post was made by jefjef who should be on your ignore list.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby puppydog85 on Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:29 pm

Dukasaur wrote:People have a misconception that "random" means "even distribution". It doesn't.


+1

It's basic math people.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Just_essence on Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:35 pm

But then, what about the Law of Large Numbers? I thought it stated that any experimental probability, if truly random, has a growing sample size, the experimental probability will edge closer and closer to the theoretical probability, which, in this case, means at least a half-decent distribution...
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby chapcrap on Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:04 pm

Just_essence wrote:But then, what about the Law of Large Numbers? I thought it stated that any experimental probability, if truly random, has a growing sample size, the experimental probability will edge closer and closer to the theoretical probability, which, in this case, means at least a half-decent distribution...

Which is my assault average is 3.51 and my defense is 3.50 over my last 2,500,000 million rolls.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby jefjef on Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:14 pm

chapcrap wrote:
Just_essence wrote:But then, what about the Law of Large Numbers? I thought it stated that any experimental probability, if truly random, has a growing sample size, the experimental probability will edge closer and closer to the theoretical probability, which, in this case, means at least a half-decent distribution...

Which is my assault average is 3.51 and my defense is 3.50 over my last 2,500,000 million rolls.


Oh yeah?...

My avg assault is 3.51... Opponents avg defense is 3.52

My avg defense is 3.49... Opponents avg assault is 3.51

Do the MATH!!! Rigged ass site.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Just_essence on Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:29 pm

Well, the LLN said that the experimental probaility would approach the theoretical, but it never said it would equal the theoretical. As it stands, that's very normal.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Dukasaur on Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:34 pm

Just_essence wrote:Well, the LLN said that the experimental probaility would approach the theoretical, but it never said it would equal the theoretical. As it stands, that's very normal.

Yes.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby SirSebstar on Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:04 pm

jefjef wrote:Oh yeah?...

My avg assault is 3.51... Opponents avg defense is 3.52

My avg defense is 3.49... Opponents avg assault is 3.51

Do the MATH!!! .

done. you have a sample of 100k dice results. you have a deviation of less then 0.1 percent. thats 100 more 2's then 5's over 100k dice... looked at it per result thats a deviation of 1 dice per 1000 that you roll less then average... it does not give you an autoloss result, just that you attack only 3 times as often as you are attacked.
I have a slightly larger sample. 500k. and it still tells me lately i have been on a winning run, on average because it used to be a lot worse then yours...
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby jefjef on Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:54 pm

SirSebstar wrote:
jefjef wrote:Oh yeah?...

My avg assault is 3.51... Opponents avg defense is 3.52

My avg defense is 3.49... Opponents avg assault is 3.51

Do the MATH!!! .

done. you have a sample of 100k dice results. you have a deviation of less then 0.1 percent. thats 100 more 2's then 5's over 100k dice... looked at it per result thats a deviation of 1 dice per 1000 that you roll less then average... it does not give you an autoloss result, just that you attack only 3 times as often as you attack.
I have a slightly larger sample. 500k. and it still tells me lately i have been on a winning run, on average because it used to be a lot worse then yours...


I attack 3 times as often as I attack??..

I think your math is skewed. Nice try though.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby SirSebstar on Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:50 am

"are attacked" jefjef. if your style with words was as good as your math skills, you would have known. Or then again, maybe not. :lol:

bottom line, yours is only a very slight deviation from what can be expected. 1 dice per 1000 means the 999 times you can expect to roll as many 6's as 1's ect.. pretty much obvious, yes?!
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby jefjef on Sun Jan 13, 2013 1:39 pm

SirSebstar wrote:"are attacked" jefjef. if your style with words was as good as your math skills, you would have known. Or then again, maybe not. :lol:

bottom line, yours is only a very slight deviation from what can be expected. 1 dice per 1000 means the 999 times you can expect to roll as many 6's as 1's ect.. pretty much obvious, yes?!


Thank cook for your insight! You do realize that "slight" variances, like .1 %, are very large when dealing with thousands upon thousands upon thousands of rolls in a game of chance like this - don't you? Or then again, pretty much obvious you don't. :lol:
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby SirSebstar on Sun Jan 13, 2013 4:02 pm

with thousands upon thousands i would assume the experimental probability would approach the theoretical probability. Approach. not equal. this was already stated by another writer.
Also, i said that your dice differenciated LESS then 0.1 percent. Considering the worst case, thats about 100 per 100k. Oeps i noticed i said its 1 in 1000 where it should be 1 in 10.000
You have to know that 0.1 is the smallest degree it can give? so its likely to be an even smaller number...

again, your sample of 100k dicerolls is not that large, LESS then one in 10k dice deviation should be... within the norm
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Just_essence on Sun Jan 13, 2013 5:36 pm

I've also seen a defender roll five consecutive 6's. Destroyed all of my troops from spoils, but that's life. It's like trying to invade Switzerland.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby ebt1972 on Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:54 am

Just_essence wrote: It's like trying to invade Switzerland.


Ultimately disappointing when you discover your loot is just clocks and chocs? :mrgreen:
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Just_essence on Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:51 pm

No. Just almost impossible to do.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby SirSebstar on Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:15 pm

actually the swiss main defense is not that it is impossible to do, quite the reverse. they have a very smal standing army.
In fact they enourage local resistance, making it increasingly taxing and difficult to hold
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Just_essence on Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:30 pm

Guerilla warfare is the currently undefeated strategy that has yet to have a regularly effective counter.
And besides, no one in the world sees any point in conquering Switzerland. It's a nice place. You don't disturb it. It doesn't disturb you. Except maybe with patents and banking.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby shadistic on Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:06 am

jefjef wrote:
SirSebstar wrote:"are attacked" jefjef. if your style with words was as good as your math skills, you would have known. Or then again, maybe not. :lol:

bottom line, yours is only a very slight deviation from what can be expected. 1 dice per 1000 means the 999 times you can expect to roll as many 6's as 1's ect.. pretty much obvious, yes?!


Thank cook for your insight! You do realize that "slight" variances, like .1 %, are very large when dealing with thousands upon thousands upon thousands of rolls in a game of chance like this - don't you? Or then again, pretty much obvious you don't. :lol:


Oh man... IF those couple hundred rolls were all to happen consecutively, it'd be your worst couple games ever.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged?

Postby SirSebstar on Tue Jan 15, 2013 8:59 am

pfff go for city mogol and you have a chance to recover... maybe...
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