Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

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Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

Postby LIVExFREE on Wed May 15, 2013 12:07 pm

DISCLAIMER: This is not just another NOOB thread of a user complaining about dice. I actually want to hear your thoughts.

So i've browsed around this forum trying to increase my rank/chances of winning, and noticed many people suggest using the Gambit battle odds calculator found here: http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

Now, for the most part I have found this helpful. However, in my latest 1v1 game, I've found it either completely destructive, or I am just SOL!

For instance, according to the calculator, I had a battle take place like so:

5 v 1 (Less 1 from attacking territory) with a .9 % Chance of me losing
4 v 1 with a 2.85% chance of losing
3 v 1 with a 8.36% chance of me losing
2 v 1 with a 24.58% chance of me losing

Now, I understand the 2 v 1 being a fairly tough call (on the board its actually 3 v 1).
Something just doesn't seem right to me. But, weirder things have happened.

EX 2:

Me attacking because I knew I had lost (1 territory left)

5 v 11 8% chance of winning
5 v 9 16% chance
5 v 7 29% chance
5 v 4 63% chance
3 v 4 36% chance

ends at 1 v 2.

:roll:

I was just wondering the thoughts of you guys, especially you higher ranked players.
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Re: Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

Postby SirSebstar on Wed May 15, 2013 1:44 pm

i dont understand the question.
but first off,
you downplayed the odds to lose.
e.g. 5-1 you lose 1% instead of 0,9 if you are rounding the numbers.

next
yes 5-11 has a 8.something % to win. so you were lucky and then your3-4 ended with you killing 2 and losing 2... overall a very good turn
But i think you mean 2-4 (on the board 3-4) and then you have 9.something % to win.
if its 3-4 (4-4 on the board) then its 31.somethings odds. Again it looks like you sometimes round the numbers.. odly
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Re: Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

Postby LIVExFREE on Wed May 15, 2013 4:33 pm

I'm sorry, I wasn't asking you to correct my percentages.
I don't really see .1 percentage point off as downplaying the odds to lose.
But yes I do realize I rounded the last, I kinda got tired of putting all the numbers in, but I definitely see your correlation and where you're coming from

Honestly, I'm just trying to improve my game anyway that I can :)
I was merely asking what you guys thought of this calculator and if I should continue to use it as a tool.
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Re: Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

Postby D4 Damager on Wed May 15, 2013 5:48 pm

I think Gambit Battle Odds is accurate. My interpretation of your 6v1 is that you happened to be very unlucky on this occasion. Or SOL as you said :-)

One think to check though: you know those percentages refer to the probability of winning or losing the whole battle, right? It's not just the probability for the next roll of the dice.
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Re: Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

Postby ljex on Wed May 15, 2013 7:09 pm

LIVExFREE wrote:DISCLAIMER: This is not just another NOOB thread of a user complaining about dice. I actually want to hear your thoughts.

So i've browsed around this forum trying to increase my rank/chances of winning, and noticed many people suggest using the Gambit battle odds calculator found here: http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

Now, for the most part I have found this helpful. However, in my latest 1v1 game, I've found it either completely destructive, or I am just SOL!

For instance, according to the calculator, I had a battle take place like so:

5 v 1 (Less 1 from attacking territory) with a .9 % Chance of me losing
4 v 1 with a 2.85% chance of losing
3 v 1 with a 8.36% chance of me losing
2 v 1 with a 24.58% chance of me losing

Now, I understand the 2 v 1 being a fairly tough call (on the board its actually 3 v 1).
Something just doesn't seem right to me. But, weirder things have happened.

EX 2:

Me attacking because I knew I had lost (1 territory left)

5 v 11 8% chance of winning
5 v 9 16% chance
5 v 7 29% chance
5 v 4 63% chance
3 v 4 36% chance

ends at 1 v 2.

:roll:

I was just wondering the thoughts of you guys, especially you higher ranked players.


It is of note that each time you roll the dice your odds change. So when you started with your 5 vs 11 you had an 8% chance of winning. The fact that it ended at 1 vs 2 means you were probably in the 10th-20th percentile of odds. Doesnt seem that bad to me if it happens one in 5-10 times, you should see that in your average game. For the 5 vs 1 it is 1%, it happens in your average week of rolling dice on cc.

Gambit battle odds is mathematically sound, I am not sure what your question is...but you can do the proofs through some simple calculations and a little knowledge of statistics.
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Re: Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

Postby SirSebstar on Thu May 16, 2013 1:55 am

LIVExFREE wrote:........
I was merely asking what you guys thought of this calculator and if I should continue to use it as a tool.

I got it now.
Yes use the tool, it does help you get aware of the odds better, and make you an overall better player.
Do be aware its the odds of winning the entire battle, overall VS a single battle and realize that the dice are random, but not evenly. So you wont guaranteed win a 99% battle, and sometimes you will get that 1% result, but overall you will get your 50% mark ;-)
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Re: Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

Postby betiko on Thu May 16, 2013 10:42 am

Yes, use the odds and don't ever take any outcome (good or bad) for granted. What should normally happen isn't always what will happen. Your drops and attacks should be done based on your best chances the odds can give you. You re doing it right for the long term.
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Re: Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

Postby LIVExFREE on Thu May 16, 2013 4:03 pm

Thanks for the thoughts.

Kinda explains it better to me.

Just tryin' to improve my game any way that I can.
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Re: Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

Postby Jippd on Thu May 16, 2013 11:09 pm

You should not have attacked the 3 at the end. It is not worthwhile to attack a 3 or a 2 in most cases against anything bigger than a 2.

Exceptions are if you really need to break a bonus that would make or break the game.

Otherwise attacking a 2 or a 3 vs anything is almost pretty much guaranteed to lose.
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Re: Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

Postby SirSebstar on Fri May 17, 2013 1:47 am

Jippd, i think he as trying to end th game with one last attack, so if it would have worked, he would have won. Overall, you are quite correct, but sometimes you need to roll the dice regardless of the potential outcome
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Re: Thoughts on Gambit Battle Odds

Postby LIVExFREE on Fri May 17, 2013 10:37 am

Lol, yes I was trying to win the game.
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