To roll or Not to roll?

[Geger]

A question for Risk-Taker

The situation :
You have an opportunity to eliminate a player from a game (no spoils) and can be eliminated by him/her in next turn, but as we know the dices play a big role here in CC

• If you don't roll (ending turn), your chance being eliminate in next turn is 33% (safety, but we know, the dices can be crazy)
• If you roll
  
  • and lose then stop, your chance being eliminate in next turn is 50%. One more roll just make the situation worse, because the chance to eliminate him/her would be only 29% (if you failed, you would be dead - the chance would be more than 70%)
  • and split, the chance to eliminate him/her is 61% (good enough)
  • and win, the chance to eliminate him/her is 82% (very good)

What do you choose : to roll or not to roll?

Note : that is in multiplayer game. By eliminating him/her you will have a big advantage towards other opponents. And the possibility of other players to use this circumstance can be ignored, because they are either too far away or have no idea (because of fog)

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[Extreme Ways]

Lol, I know it's all about the scenario, but in a no spoils game, why would it be a big advantage to eliminate a player if he/she has a 33% chance of eliminating you? Make it a 3-player game and I'll understand it a bit more. I would roll in this scenario though, eventhough CC could give me a horrible dice streak

[Geger]

Lol, I know it's all about the scenario, but in a no spoils game, why would it be a big advantage to eliminate a player if he/she has a 33% chance of eliminating you? Make it a 3-player game and I'll understand it a bit more. I would roll in this scenario though, eventhough CC could give me a horrible dice streak

Ty for your answer

To answer your question : why would it be a big advantage to eliminate a player if he/she has a 33% chance of eliminating you?

Hm... I have to tell the secret
Because you will have 2 Home-Lands in the end of first turn in (5-8)-players foggy game on map New World, if you drop in Comanche or Aztec and play first

This is the prologue :
For example you started in Aztec, and luckily could take Aztec-2 without any loses (or you started Comanche and took Comanche-9). Next roll you attacked Comanche-9 and hoped you would win. But this time you could kill only 1. It was better to lose in the last roll, so you could stop. But now, he/she is aware that someone tried to kill him/her. And now you have a dilemma like I posted in 1st post.

Ha ha.. I was never in that situation. I was bored last night, and created the scenario, maybe I'll try next time

[Extreme Ways]

Aha, I know someone told that about New World, maybe Plurple, but now I should definitly roll it. In a multiplayer game, winning (statistically) about 70% of the games, is a very decent score. 70% is because you are in a good position with the autodeploys. But I haven't played the map so I don't know.