Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

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Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Breal on Sat Jul 21, 2012 6:05 am

In escalating, is there a rule of thumb/minimum for going for kill that would most likely lead to sweep/win? Would that be 50%+ or 40%+? Does that number vary based on 8 player, 7 player, 6 player? Thanks for input
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Kaskavel on Sat Jul 21, 2012 5:08 pm

In a game of n players of equal strengh and positions (if that would be possible but of course it is not), I would theoriticaly be happy to have more than 1/n possibility of winning. But the big bet is to be the one playing after the guy with that chance...
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Viceroy63 on Sat Jul 21, 2012 10:36 pm

Breal wrote:In escalating, is there a rule of thumb/minimum for going for kill that would most likely lead to sweep/win? Would that be 50%+ or 40%+? Does that number vary based on 8 player, 7 player, 6 player? Thanks for input


If I understand your question right then first of all the ideal number of players is 6 players total for the simple reason that you are less likely to have stacks scattered through out the board with 8 players or even 7 players.

As to the first part of the question there is this site below that can help you figure out the odds of a successful sweep.

http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

As to a rule of thumbs, I always try to have five more troops in total at least than the number I am about to assault. But the dice gods call the final shots.
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Jippd on Sun Jul 22, 2012 12:58 am

The battle odds calculator is what I usually rely heavily on to help make decisions
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Kaskavel on Sun Jul 22, 2012 1:19 pm

He didnt ask that. He asked "if the odds are 34% for me to win, should I go for it?"
And of course, there is no simple answer....
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Viceroy63 on Sun Jul 22, 2012 5:36 pm

It just seemed to me that he was asking for a certain percentage of troops, I think? Like if 40%+ or 50%+ would guarantee a win/sweep in any situation.

Like if player "A" with 50 troops is attacking player "B" with 50 troops and so should player "A" add 50%+ more, which is 25 more troops to make it 75 troops in total to attack player "B" 50 troops.

But you are absolutely right. The Calculator could say 80% percent of a win with 30 troops surviving and you end up losing all of your troops anyway because you fell in that 20 percent lost ratio??? It could happen. So that there is no easy answer to that question.

But as a rule of thumb I don't go by percentages. if I have 50 troops and I am going to assault 50 troops I add at least 5 more troops to my 50 troops. At least 5 troops perhaps more depending how badly I want it.

Perhaps I may be off on the number of players part but the question itself is not all that specific in the first place.
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Breal on Sun Jul 22, 2012 6:22 pm

Sorry for lacking clarity in my question, but I was asking if(using the assault odds calculator) it is determined that I can kill player x w/ a probability of success between 40-50%, should I go for it above a certain percentage and is that percentage variable depending on it being a 6, 7, or 8 player game? I know there are numerous other factors that play into this like if I miss is this player an easy kill for subsequent players' turns, how the board looks at that time i.e. do I have a good drop(troops all over board or protected in area like Oz...), is another player set to make a run that can't or probably won't be blocked... I have used up to this point 50% as threshold for automatically going for kill, all other factors being equal, and while waiting for replies to this question went for a kill w/ 41% chance of success in an 8 player game which worked out well for me though I got lucky on one front. I hope this clears up any ambiguity on my part and I look forward to replies. BTW, I don't think having equivalent or 5 more troops than player I'm going after is necessarily the best strategy, I like to use statistical info more precise than that before launching an all out assault. And yes I certainly don't auto assault and I do stop a kill attempt if dice failure looks imminent.
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Dukasaur on Sun Jul 22, 2012 7:53 pm

Myself I don't pull the trigger unless I have a 67% chance of success. Of course, that has to be modified by many factors (which you've already listed) but the most important modifier is whether there will just be enough cards for one re-cash, or if there is a chance of getting a double re-cash.
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Jippd on Sun Jul 22, 2012 10:59 pm

I would say at least 50%....I consider 75+% as a pretty much guaranteed win.

However there will be times when you may have to go with only a 25% chance. If you were going to lose anyways then you would lose nothing by trying to win.

For example say you are in a 3 player esc game. If you don't cash and try to kill an opponent for their cards (with a 25% chance of success) then the player after you will be able to kill the 3rd player for their cards and thus win the game. If this were the case and you could not successfully block to save the 3rd player then you would have nothing to lose by going for the 25% chance.

If you win more than half the time would you be happy as a risk player? If so, then I guess going for anything with a 50+% chance of the time should result in you being satisfied as a risk player.
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby AyeTrain on Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:01 am

My rule-of-thumb for a guaranteed win is double. Circumstances may require an assault with less than that, of course, and even with a 2 to 1 advantage you might get a bad set of rolls. Assaulting with double the defenders tends to give you enough remaining troops to occupy and hold the new conquest, too.

One curious thing I find is that the 2 to 1 rule is much less true or necessary at very high troop numbers. I often have good results when attacking with 150 against 100, for instance. Or even 75 against 100. There are enough rolls that you have a good chance of getting a streak of winning dice. Your opponent might get a good streak too, however, so use with caution. But even a losing assault tends to leave the defenders greatly weakened, so it can be worth it, especially if you have reserves that you can use to reinforce.
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Rodion on Mon Jul 23, 2012 12:00 pm

Breal wrote:In escalating, is there a rule of thumb/minimum for going for kill that would most likely lead to sweep/win? Would that be 50%+ or 40%+? Does that number vary based on 8 player, 7 player, 6 player? Thanks for input


You need to compare "odds of winning if you do not attempt the sweep" against "odds of winning if you try it". If there are more players in the game, you're less likely to win by not attempting the sweep.

Theoretically speaking, in an 8-player game where all players are equally ranked (CC points) and equally strong (armies/territories/cards), a 13% chance of getting a win should already be enough for you to try it (100/8 = 12.5%). Do realize, however, that getting the first kill does not guarantee you'll be able to sweep the other players, so that has to be reckoned before you make your decision.
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby danryan on Mon Jul 23, 2012 12:28 pm

I generally wait until the email from CC comes in notifying me that my upgraded dice are ready.
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby AndyDufresne on Mon Jul 23, 2012 12:54 pm

Dukasaur wrote:Myself I don't pull the trigger unless I have a 67% chance of success. Of course, that has to be modified by many factors (which you've already listed) but the most important modifier is whether there will just be enough cards for one re-cash, or if there is a chance of getting a double re-cash.


In the larger games I've played, I think I employ some reasoning similar to this.


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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Viceroy63 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 1:32 pm

Also remember that attitude has a lot to do with the dice.

"The Attacker that thinks he will succeed and the attacker who thinks that he won't succeed, are both 100% percent correct."
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Gillipig on Tue Jul 31, 2012 6:50 am

It's all about the situation. Important to make calculations before trying to take someoe out. How will it effect the coming rounds? Are you giving someone the game by taking this guy out? Maybe you're refering to how many troops you need to have available to assault with before trying to take someone out!? In that case it's also depending on the situation. Will taking this player out result in a huge advantage boding the way to a sweep and winning the game? Or will you just be in a good position afterwards? If it's the latter, you have less to win and I would therefore be much more conservative. If it's the first alternative however, I'll be more optimistic.
Number of troops is also not the only thing that matters. You need to take into consideration how many region he holds. Compare 1 troop on 100 regions to 1 region with 100 troops. For the first situation I want to have about 150 troops to feel safe, in the second I'd be satisfied with about 100. If taking this guy out is all that matters of course.
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby macbone on Tue Jul 31, 2012 10:47 am

51%, man.

I'll go if the odds are somewhere around 40ish if the game's about over. I'll do a few test battles to see if my troops are feeling their oats, and if they are, I let 'em loose. =)
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Dauntless07 on Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:25 pm

While statistics speak for themselves, there is no accounting for bad luck; however improbable. The fewer troops involved in the battle, the more likely you are to have streaks of incredible good or bad luck. Because of the luck factor, I don't make a kill sweep unless I know I can finish it. Failing in a kill sweep can leave you a sitting duck. Because of this, I usually make sure I have twice as many troops as the defender with lower numbers of troops, and gradually lessen the ratio as greater numbers are on the board. When stacks start going into the hundreds I cut down to roughly equal numbers. I would attack a stack of 10 with 20, and a stack of 100 with 100 minimum if going for the kill.
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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby Jippd on Thu Aug 02, 2012 4:09 am

You could kill a 10 stack with a lot less easily. A 15 stack provides 83% odds of success. Those are great odds.

When I first started on conquer club I used this twice as many rule for eliminations. After playing A LOT of games, I no longer use that rule.

Again use the battle odds calculator: http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

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Re: Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

Postby BeauJyles on Fri Aug 03, 2012 12:25 pm

I agree with the 1/n chance of going for the sweep providing you can pull the sweep off after the first kill. You almost have to be certain that you'll be successful based on the first kill odds because if you still have a 1/n chance of winning after your first kill, you're fighting a losing battle. Basing your decision on 1/n will lead you into trouble because that chance is only for one event when you really have to calculate for more than 1 event.

I guess what I'm getting at is if your chances increase (hopefully dramatically) after your first kill you're in a much better position to go for the sweep and 1/n chance of winning is viable. I believe this is why people tend to set themselves up with rules of 1.5-2x starting attacking troops which increases their chances of sweeping after the first.

I think a statistician could come up with a cost/benefit analysis in terms of points to gain and what you can lose if you miss your target. It's an interesting question and I'm sure there's a proper way of coming up with a percentage based on the number of players you're up against.

The number of troops you can deploy after your first kill is a massive factor. I think looking past the first kill is the most important facet of calculating the viability of a sweep. I've seen so many new players (in standard games) hand the game over to the next player because they didn't have the troops to continue their sweep after their first successful kill.

There's also the number of spoils you have when you turn in (be it 3, 4 or 5) and the number of spoils your first target has (5, 4 or 3). If you have 5 spoils of your own and you're going for someone with 5 themself, you have the best chance of turning in twice. This may be enough reason to go for a 1/n chance of going for the sweep...

Variables such as the number of troops/spoils of your next target, and set worth must be considered when doing your calculations. I don't think there is a clearcut answer to this question because every situation is different. I completely agree with Jippd about the battle odds calculator being your best friend. Having the odds allows you more leeway to actually go for the win instead of using rules such as 1.5-2x the number of troops (a little restrictive). I think having "rules" about going for the sweep can really impede your chances of taking more games. Waiting for the stars to allign (having requirements met) may be a good strategy against players who are using the same strategy because you're essentially in a Mexican stand-off but (I assume) when you're up against the higher ranked players, these requirements will arise less often as the better players will take their opportunity if the numbers stack up.

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