Assault odds minimum to go for kill/sweep

[Breal]

In escalating, is there a rule of thumb/minimum for going for kill that would most likely lead to sweep/win? Would that be 50%+ or 40%+? Does that number vary based on 8 player, 7 player, 6 player? Thanks for input

[Kaskavel]

In a game of n players of equal strengh and positions (if that would be possible but of course it is not), I would theoriticaly be happy to have more than 1/n possibility of winning. But the big bet is to be the one playing after the guy with that chance...

[Viceroy63]

In escalating, is there a rule of thumb/minimum for going for kill that would most likely lead to sweep/win? Would that be 50%+ or 40%+? Does that number vary based on 8 player, 7 player, 6 player? Thanks for input

If I understand your question right then first of all the ideal number of players is 6 players total for the simple reason that you are less likely to have stacks scattered through out the board with 8 players or even 7 players.

As to the first part of the question there is this site below that can help you figure out the odds of a successful sweep.

http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

As to a rule of thumbs, I always try to have five more troops in total at least than the number I am about to assault. But the dice gods call the final shots.

[Jippd]

The battle odds calculator is what I usually rely heavily on to help make decisions

[Kaskavel]

He didnt ask that. He asked "if the odds are 34% for me to win, should I go for it?"
And of course, there is no simple answer....

[Viceroy63]

It just seemed to me that he was asking for a certain percentage of troops, I think? Like if 40%+ or 50%+ would guarantee a win/sweep in any situation.

Like if player "A" with 50 troops is attacking player "B" with 50 troops and so should player "A" add 50%+ more, which is 25 more troops to make it 75 troops in total to attack player "B" 50 troops.

But you are absolutely right. The Calculator could say 80% percent of a win with 30 troops surviving and you end up losing all of your troops anyway because you fell in that 20 percent lost ratio??? It could happen. So that there is no easy answer to that question.

But as a rule of thumb I don't go by percentages. if I have 50 troops and I am going to assault 50 troops I add at least 5 more troops to my 50 troops. At least 5 troops perhaps more depending how badly I want it.

Perhaps I may be off on the number of players part but the question itself is not all that specific in the first place.

[Breal]

Sorry for lacking clarity in my question, but I was asking if(using the assault odds calculator) it is determined that I can kill player x w/ a probability of success between 40-50%, should I go for it above a certain percentage and is that percentage variable depending on it being a 6, 7, or 8 player game? I know there are numerous other factors that play into this like if I miss is this player an easy kill for subsequent players' turns, how the board looks at that time i.e. do I have a good drop(troops all over board or protected in area like Oz...), is another player set to make a run that can't or probably won't be blocked... I have used up to this point 50% as threshold for automatically going for kill, all other factors being equal, and while waiting for replies to this question went for a kill w/ 41% chance of success in an 8 player game which worked out well for me though I got lucky on one front. I hope this clears up any ambiguity on my part and I look forward to replies. BTW, I don't think having equivalent or 5 more troops than player I'm going after is necessarily the best strategy, I like to use statistical info more precise than that before launching an all out assault. And yes I certainly don't auto assault and I do stop a kill attempt if dice failure looks imminent.

[Dukasaur]

Myself I don't pull the trigger unless I have a 67% chance of success. Of course, that has to be modified by many factors (which you've already listed) but the most important modifier is whether there will just be enough cards for one re-cash, or if there is a chance of getting a double re-cash.

[Jippd]

I would say at least 50%....I consider 75+% as a pretty much guaranteed win.

However there will be times when you may have to go with only a 25% chance. If you were going to lose anyways then you would lose nothing by trying to win.

For example say you are in a 3 player esc game. If you don't cash and try to kill an opponent for their cards (with a 25% chance of success) then the player after you will be able to kill the 3rd player for their cards and thus win the game. If this were the case and you could not successfully block to save the 3rd player then you would have nothing to lose by going for the 25% chance.

If you win more than half the time would you be happy as a risk player? If so, then I guess going for anything with a 50+% chance of the time should result in you being satisfied as a risk player.

[AyeTrain]

My rule-of-thumb for a guaranteed win is double. Circumstances may require an assault with less than that, of course, and even with a 2 to 1 advantage you might get a bad set of rolls. Assaulting with double the defenders tends to give you enough remaining troops to occupy and hold the new conquest, too.

One curious thing I find is that the 2 to 1 rule is much less true or necessary at very high troop numbers. I often have good results when attacking with 150 against 100, for instance. Or even 75 against 100. There are enough rolls that you have a good chance of getting a streak of winning dice. Your opponent might get a good streak too, however, so use with caution. But even a losing assault tends to leave the defenders greatly weakened, so it can be worth it, especially if you have reserves that you can use to reinforce.

[Rodion]

In escalating, is there a rule of thumb/minimum for going for kill that would most likely lead to sweep/win? Would that be 50%+ or 40%+? Does that number vary based on 8 player, 7 player, 6 player? Thanks for input

You need to compare "odds of winning if you do not attempt the sweep" against "odds of winning if you try it". If there are more players in the game, you're less likely to win by not attempting the sweep.

Theoretically speaking, in an 8-player game where all players are equally ranked (CC points) and equally strong (armies/territories/cards), a 13% chance of getting a win should already be enough for you to try it (100/8 = 12.5%). Do realize, however, that getting the first kill does not guarantee you'll be able to sweep the other players, so that has to be reckoned before you make your decision.

[danryan]

I generally wait until the email from CC comes in notifying me that my upgraded dice are ready.

[AndyDufresne]

Myself I don't pull the trigger unless I have a 67% chance of success. Of course, that has to be modified by many factors (which you've already listed) but the most important modifier is whether there will just be enough cards for one re-cash, or if there is a chance of getting a double re-cash.

In the larger games I've played, I think I employ some reasoning similar to this.


--Andy

[Viceroy63]

Also remember that attitude has a lot to do with the dice.

"The Attacker that thinks he will succeed and the attacker who thinks that he won't succeed, are both 100% percent correct."

[Gillipig]

It's all about the situation. Important to make calculations before trying to take someoe out. How will it effect the coming rounds? Are you giving someone the game by taking this guy out? Maybe you're refering to how many troops you need to have available to assault with before trying to take someone out!? In that case it's also depending on the situation. Will taking this player out result in a huge advantage boding the way to a sweep and winning the game? Or will you just be in a good position afterwards? If it's the latter, you have less to win and I would therefore be much more conservative. If it's the first alternative however, I'll be more optimistic.
Number of troops is also not the only thing that matters. You need to take into consideration how many region he holds. Compare 1 troop on 100 regions to 1 region with 100 troops. For the first situation I want to have about 150 troops to feel safe, in the second I'd be satisfied with about 100. If taking this guy out is all that matters of course.