Dice Psychology

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Dice Psychology

Postby Anatolia on Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:38 pm

Here's my brief attempt to explain why it seems like the dice are stacked against us:

There's a 1.1% chance of losing 12v3, but it seems to happen about once a week, right? This makes sense because we're all making hundreds of similar attacks per week. We're bound to have a big loss like that every once in a while.

Meanwhile, the odds of winning 5v13 are similarly 1.1%, yet a miracle like that never seems to happen. It's simply because we never attempt attacks like this. If we tried as many underdog attacks as we try big vs small attacks, we'd win against big odds as often as we lose against them.

So, even though the theoretical odds are always fair, the practical odds (actual occurrences/turns taken) of losing big are much higher than for winning big, because of how we play the game.

The conclusion? Even though its annoying when people say the dice odds are against us, there's a weird truth behind what they're saying.

A
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby Fewnix on Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:44 pm

BANG ON!!!!!

=D> =D> =D> =D>

Anatolia wrote:Here's my brief attempt to explain why it seems like the dice are stacked against us:

There's a 1.1% chance of losing 12v3, but it seems to happen about once a week, right? This makes sense because we're all making hundreds of similar attacks per week. We're bound to have a big loss like that every once in a while.

Meanwhile, the odds of winning 5v13 are similarly 1.1%, yet a miracle like that never seems to happen. It's simply because we never attempt attacks like this. If we tried as many underdog attacks as we try big vs small attacks, we'd win against big odds as often as we lose against them.

So, even though the theoretical odds are always fair, the practical odds (actual occurrences/turns taken) of losing big are much higher than for winning big, because of how we play the game.

The conclusion? Even though its annoying when people say the dice odds are against us, there's a weird truth behind what they're saying.

A
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby skychaser on Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:58 pm

Yep. It's like a poker table, if you win by bad beats so often that does mean you're playing it bad.
But it's still frustrating however if you play good then the luck does not favor you that often.
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby ManBungalow on Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:53 pm

And the human mind hasn't evolved to understand numbers.

Which kinda goes without saying really.
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby Nola_Lifer on Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:54 pm

It is an irrational universe. Stop trying to rationalize it.
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby ZeekLTK on Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:52 am

It just sucks because, as you mentioned, it's so rare - so it has such a big influence on the game because it's generally a 1-time deal (as far as individual games go).

When it happens, it happens to you, and only you, and you can't expect that it will "even out" and happen to someone else during the same game, because that's just not likely.
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby Viceroy63 on Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:15 pm

Anatolia wrote:Meanwhile, the odds of winning 5v13 are similarly 1.1%, yet a miracle like that never seems to happen. It's simply because we never attempt attacks like this. If we tried as many underdog attacks as we try big vs small attacks, we'd win against big odds as often as we lose against them.


This is a good post. And I actually do attacks like this all the time and have had more than my fair share of success. It is not so rare a thing for me when I take out 9, 11 or even more with just 4 or 5 troops. Considering of course that one should not be able to win in the first place. The thing is that I only do this with 4 or 5 troops using the auto-assault or "Right Click" so that should I lose I only lose 2 troops and still keep at least a couple of troops on that region for defense.

But you are right! Miracles like that do happen more often then they should. Just like when you lose an assault having 13 troops against 4 or 5 defending troops, also happen more often then they should. That is why one's attacks should also have a plan "B" of stopping the assaults in time and preparing for the next round.
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby Arama86n on Fri Jan 11, 2013 6:13 pm

Your on the right track mate. Maybe what you say is part of, or IS the issue.
Personally I believe it's a slightly different issue. People seem to have a tendency to remember the bad dice more, especially when it's an important turn. They'll forget the fantastic dice they got in a cleanup stage of a game because they got horrible dice in two turns in two games where they desperately needed it. This is the only upside to having a larger game-count in my opinion. with a very low game count you can easily get horrid dice in 2-5 turns in a row and be left with a foul taste in your mouth. Those with a large game count SHOULD see the dice evening out on a daily basis.
Then again there are always those that complain, and as I've always said, there is an age old invention called Chess, if you can't handle dice/drop go try it, But it might not suit everyone, as there is no scapegoat when one loses O:) and that is an ego crusher isn't it, so much more comfortable with dice to blame ;)

In general I think your on the right track though, "bad dice" is due to psychology.
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby Gamefreakguy on Fri Jan 18, 2013 12:41 pm

Very interesting point, I never considered the hesitancy to attack low vs high numbers affecting how we evaluated our luck, but it's a good point. Of course, as mentioned, remembering the negatives is another contributing factor.

I think another aspect of that is that we feel we "should" win battles that are weighted on our side, and it hurts when we don't get what we feel we deserve. But on the flip side, we take for granted the undeserved victories because we are always future-oriented to see what we deserve next instead of appreciating what we achieved when we shouldn't have.
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby Viceroy63 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 8:16 pm

This is my current Luck statistic just now.

Can anyone explain this to me? Please. Thanks.

I get the gist of it but not really the whole point.

One question that I have is that, do 37% of "All Opponents" are luckier than me?

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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby Just_essence on Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:40 pm

No, it's just the percentage above (luckier) or below (unluckier) the average roll, a 3.50.
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby macbone on Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:36 am

I just attacked a 3v9 and killed 8 straight. The dice are bizarre sometimes.
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby HardAttack on Sat Jan 19, 2013 8:39 am

macbone wrote:I just attacked a 3v9 and killed 8 straight. The dice are bizarre sometimes.


when did you do that ? :lol:
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby Viceroy63 on Sat Jan 19, 2013 9:21 am

macbone wrote:I just attacked a 3v9 and killed 8 straight. The dice are bizarre sometimes.


And perhaps if you had 4v9 then you would have been completely successful. ;)
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Re: Dice Psychology

Postby HardAttack on Sat Jan 19, 2013 10:24 am

Viceroy63 wrote:
macbone wrote:I just attacked a 3v9 and killed 8 straight. The dice are bizarre sometimes.


And perhaps if you had 4v9 then you would have been completely successful. ;)


this/your signature/ only shows 8 evolution steps from the first to now...
i wonder what it looked like before 8 steps :lol:
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