11 on 11 is the last number where defender has advantage

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11 on 11 is the last number where defender has advantage

Postby Cronus on Mon Jun 18, 2007 3:50 am

11 on 11 is the last number at which defender has the advantage (when the 2 territories in question have an equal number) where the attacker wins only 49.4% of the time. At 12 on 12, odds favor the attacker at 50.7%. Attacker has advantage at all numbers greater than this.

Just a random pointless fact.
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Postby jiminski on Mon Jun 18, 2007 4:12 am

cheers, that is quite interesting.
and i like the nappin lapin.
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Postby alex_white101 on Mon Jun 18, 2007 7:28 am

well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!
''Many a true word is spoken in jest''
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Postby chessplaya on Mon Jun 18, 2007 7:30 am

alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!



:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

he said a 50.4% chance to succeed
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Postby alex_white101 on Mon Jun 18, 2007 7:37 am

im still pretty sure the odds of a 35 vs 35 going down to a 3 against 25 are small........... :cry:
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Postby Cronus on Mon Jun 18, 2007 8:13 am

alex_white101 wrote:im still pretty sure the odds of a 35 vs 35 going down to a 3 against 25 are small........... :cry:


it's approximately 0.02% or a 1 in 5000 chance
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Postby BeakerWMA on Thu Jun 21, 2007 6:49 pm

Better buy a lotto ticket, your luck has to change!
I am serious...and don't call me Shirley.
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Postby TipTop on Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:02 am

11 on 11 is the last number at which defender has the advantage (when the 2 territories in question have an equal number) where the attacker wins only 49.4% of the time. At 12 on 12, odds favor the attacker at 50.7%. Attacker has advantage at all numbers greater than this.

Just a random pointless fact.


This makes no sense to me. The advantage is always with the attacker as long as he can throw one dice more than the defender.

He can do this at 4v4 but after the first 3v2 roll the attacker will mostly not be able to do it a 2nd time hence he is still an underdog to take the territory.

5v5 that changes. After the first 3v2 roll the attacker will mostly have the extra dice advantage to the end giving him the edge.

GAMBIT BATTLE ODDS CALCULATOR

2v2 territory defeated by attacker 36.26543%
3v3 territory defeated by attacker 47.02511%
4v4 territory defeated by attacker 47.65309%
5v5 territory defeated by attacker 50.62028%

the odds just get better the higher you go as the extra dice advantage has more time to work

11v11 territory defeated by attacker 57.62945%
35v35 territory defeated by attacker 69.33711%
99v99 territory defeated by attacker 82.30450%

so this shows once you get to 5v5 attack is the best form of defence :)
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Postby cpexp on Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:36 am

TipTop wrote:
11 on 11 is the last number at which defender has the advantage (when the 2 territories in question have an equal number) where the attacker wins only 49.4% of the time. At 12 on 12, odds favor the attacker at 50.7%. Attacker has advantage at all numbers greater than this.

Just a random pointless fact.


This makes no sense to me. The advantage is always with the attacker as long as he can throw one dice more than the defender.

He can do this at 4v4 but after the first 3v2 roll the attacker will mostly not be able to do it a 2nd time hence he is still an underdog to take the territory.

5v5 that changes. After the first 3v2 roll the attacker will mostly have the extra dice advantage to the end giving him the edge.

GAMBIT BATTLE ODDS CALCULATOR

2v2 territory defeated by attacker 36.26543%
3v3 territory defeated by attacker 47.02511%
4v4 territory defeated by attacker 47.65309%
5v5 territory defeated by attacker 50.62028%

the odds just get better the higher you go as the extra dice advantage has more time to work

11v11 territory defeated by attacker 57.62945%
35v35 territory defeated by attacker 69.33711%
99v99 territory defeated by attacker 82.30450%

so this shows once you get to 5v5 attack is the best form of defence :)


You misunderstood either what Cromus said, or what GAMBIT computes:
11 v 11 has to be converted to 10 v. 11 in GAMBIT, because in GAMBIT you enter only the number of armies you attack with, which is 1 less than the number of armies on the attacking territory.

So your 4 v 4 situation actually occurs when you attack 5 v. 4, not when the number of armies on both countries are 4.
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Postby TipTop on Sun Jun 24, 2007 10:42 am

thanks cpexp that is where I went wrong.
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Postby Robinette on Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:27 pm

chessplaya wrote:
alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

he said a 50.4% chance to succeed


Which is also a 49.6% chance of failure...

So is the glass half FULL, or half EMPTY ???

For me it all depends on what's IN the glass...
If it's an Ice cold margarita, the glass is half FULL :)
If it's a tepid beer, the glass is definitely half EMPTY :(

Go now, and apply this lesson to your Risk strategy!
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Postby Blackadder on Sun Jun 24, 2007 8:44 pm

BeakerWMA wrote:Better buy a lotto ticket, your luck has to change!


Nah, they would probably lose that :wink:
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Postby eyeofdeath on Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:01 am

Robinette wrote:
chessplaya wrote:
alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

he said a 50.4% chance to succeed


Which is also a 49.6% chance of failure...

So is the glass half FULL, or half EMPTY ???

For me it all depends on what's IN the glass...
If it's an Ice cold margarita, the glass is half FULL :)
If it's a tepid beer, the glass is definitely half EMPTY :(

Go now, and apply this lesson to your Risk strategy!


Your tiny writing frustrates me sometimes.

But that doesn't make sense to me because....

If the liquid was tepid beer, i would want to get rid of it, making it seem like there was too much....there for, half FULL

but that's just me...
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Postby Bob Janova on Mon Jun 25, 2007 6:50 am

I think you get 3 dice fighting 3vx (even though you can only move 2 armies forward) so 5v5 would be the breakeven point.
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Postby Robinette on Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:27 am

eyeofdeath wrote:
Robinette wrote:
chessplaya wrote:
alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

he said a 50.4% chance to succeed


Which is also a 49.6% chance of failure...

So is the glass half FULL, or half EMPTY ???

For me it all depends on what's IN the glass...
If it's an Ice cold margarita, the glass is half FULL :)
If it's a tepid beer, the glass is definitely half EMPTY :(

Go now, and apply this lesson to your Risk strategy!


Your tiny writing frustrates me sometimes.

But that doesn't make sense to me because....

If the liquid was tepid beer, i would want to get rid of it, making it seem like there was too much....there for, half FULL

but that's just me...


mnnnn... never thought of it that way....
I am pretty quick to dump a tepid beer, so to me it is on it's way to being empty...
While I will slowly sip and savor the perfect half full glass...

Can I get your thoughts on adjusting an air conditioner...
Do you turn it UP to mean RAISE the temperature????
Or do you go UP to go DOWN.... :-k

where is that ice cold margarita when I really need it?
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Postby Cronus on Mon Jun 25, 2007 5:53 pm

Bob Janova wrote:I think you get 3 dice fighting 3vx (even though you can only move 2 armies forward) so 5v5 would be the breakeven point.


what?

1. defender get max of 2 dice
2. it's not a thought, it is a fact that 11 on 11 is the break point. This isn't a debate.
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Postby Petrelli4Prez on Mon Jun 25, 2007 5:54 pm

Robinette wrote:
Can I get your thoughts on adjusting an air conditioner...
Do you turn it UP to mean RAISE the temperature????
Or do you go UP to go DOWN.... :-k

where is that ice cold margarita when I really need it?


I turn UP the AC for the temperature to go down. :mrgreen:
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Postby Atarihero on Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:51 pm

Robinette wrote:So is the glass half FULL, or half EMPTY ???

If half the container has water, I have water. :wink:
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Postby rsuttles58 on Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:08 am

I've got a question along these lines. It's about dice odds.

So I was playing a game with friends last night who aren't the best of players.

I lost THREE battles where I was attacked by someone that had less troops than I had defending the territory.

1. The first one was just asinine. The guy attacked me in a 3v7 situation and WON without losing a single troop. He took that territory and then attacked with his 2 troops and broke my bonus on a territory behind it.

2. The other notable one was in a situation where I had 25 troops defending a territory and a guy attacked me with 18 troops. He won with 6 troops left over.

Did I just have the luck of the Jews here or are the odds really THAT much in favor of the attacker? My friends tried telling me that their attacking armies had the favorable odds when attacking in these situations. I actually called my girlfriend to make sure I wasn't losing my mind.
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Postby AAFitz on Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:25 am

rsuttles58 wrote:I've got a question along these lines. It's about dice odds.

So I was playing a game with friends last night who aren't the best of players.

I lost THREE battles where I was attacked by someone that had less troops than I had defending the territory.

1. The first one was just asinine. The guy attacked me in a 3v7 situation and WON without losing a single troop. He took that territory and then attacked with his 2 troops and broke my bonus on a territory behind it.

2. The other notable one was in a situation where I had 25 troops defending a territory and a guy attacked me with 18 troops. He won with 6 troops left over.

Did I just have the luck of the Jews here or are the odds really THAT much in favor of the attacker? My friends tried telling me that their attacking armies had the favorable odds when attacking in these situations. I actually called my girlfriend to make sure I wasn't losing my mind.


the 3 to 7 attack is very rare, but it does occasionally happen, the 18 to 24 is a very wise attack to make if you have nothing to lose....id much rather make the attack than let the 24 butcher my 18...
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Postby Grisle on Sat Jul 14, 2007 3:02 pm

alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!


You should have never let your armies get that low.
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Postby rondosocal on Fri Jul 20, 2007 12:30 am

Thank you. Excellent bit of data.
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cronus....

Postby calkid on Tue Jul 24, 2007 5:19 pm

if you are good at figuring out odds, i would like a breakdown of the odds when there is the same amount of armie on each territory. include the extra dice for the attatcker and the tie(WIN) for the defender. i would like to see a breakdown from 1vs 1 TO 15 vs 15 instead of just stating the odds. i want to know how you come up with that.
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Re: cronus....

Postby TipTop on Sun Jul 29, 2007 12:25 pm

calkid wrote:if you are good at figuring out odds, i would like a breakdown of the odds when there is the same amount of armie on each territory. include the extra dice for the attatcker and the tie(WIN) for the defender. i would like to see a breakdown from 1vs 1 TO 15 vs 15 instead of just stating the odds. i want to know how you come up with that.



Just use this http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds
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Re: 11 on 11 is the last number where defender has advantage

Postby Cynther on Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:10 pm

Robinette wrote:
chessplaya wrote:
alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

he said a 50.4% chance to succeed




Which is also a 49.6% chance of failure...



So is the glass half FULL, or half EMPTY ???

For me it all depends on what's IN the glass...
If it's an Ice cold margarita, the glass is half FULL :)
If it's a tepid beer, the glass is definitely half EMPTY :(

Go now, and apply this lesson to your Risk strategy!


Well if he says the situation ended with 3 vs. 25, technically he didn't fail. He still has a possibility of winning the territory. It's all about believing =)
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