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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Wed Jan 06, 2010 1:19 pm

EXTRA EXTRA, explain that> Game 5875491, round 66, I just attacked 4 lands with one on each.

every one of the attacks was preceeded by TWO losses.

So, attack-loose, attack-loose, attack-win , NEXT attack-loose, attack-loose, attack-win , NEXT attack-loose, attack-loose, attack-win , NEXT attack-loose, attack-loose, attack-win , NEXT! just like that....

WEIRD pattern, indeed. Wonder why....
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby SuicidalSnowman on Wed Jan 06, 2010 1:30 pm

Yesterday, I took 5 men through one 9 stack, then two more single territories :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/

But then I had a 9v2, clicked twice and lost 4 men. I might have kept losing, or I might have started winning, but I looked ahead to the big picture, the overall game, and stopped clicking.

Actually Radaga, to be serious for a moment, what are the odds of me getting that first set of rolls.
9v5= I win 3 v 2
7v5= I win 3 v 2
5v5= I win 3 v 2
3v5= I win 3 v 2
1v5= I win 3 v 1
Then it was
1v4= I win 3 v 1
Then it was
1v3= I win 2 v 1
Then it was
1v2= I lost 1 v 1

If you figure 6 6's in a row is 1/50,000 (is that even true?) then my dice have to be astronomically good! Like, RNG orgasm good!
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:24 am

Well, six sixes is "roughtly" 1 / 6^6 = 1/46.656

Chance of a double kill on a 3x2 is +/-32%, again, roughtly to win 5 in a row would be 1/3^5 = one in 243 times

As for me, again, same game, round 67, getting back the same 4 lands, I had 1loss/1 win on each. 50%-50% - again a ridiculous probability....
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Thu Jan 21, 2010 4:45 am

best of the month: Advice from a member about dice>

2010-01-19 23:08:15 - RRSGenl: dice are really random.
2010-01-19 23:08:38 - RRSGenl: U need to play conservatively till you know dice are on your side
2010-01-19 23:08:53 - RRSGenl: Then go crazy till the trend shifts back
2010-01-19 23:09:13 - RRSGenl: Then go easy again till next shift


Random now have "trends" And random alows one to "know" something about them...
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby slymstar on Sat Jan 23, 2010 9:20 pm

yes, everyone has "bad luck" rolling sometimes, but lets be serious. It determines the outcome of too many games, when it should be strategy and gameplay determining 90+%. What is really so difficult about randomly generating dice rolls, without the 1-6 random aggressiveness thrown in serving no good purpose, with realistic odds for each die being rolled? It gets frustrating and has driven me away from this game a few times now. I keep coming back and hoping there's been an improvement, but it doesn't change. It's really too bad, because it could be a great game series otherwise.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Mon Feb 01, 2010 7:16 am

Classic:

Combat

Italy:

* 2
* 5
* 3

- vs -

Sardinia:

* 6
* 3

Combat

Italy:

* 5
* 5
* 4

- vs -

Sardinia:

* 5
* 6

Combat

Italy:

* 3
* 4
* 2

- vs -

Sardinia:

* 4
* 3
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Mon Feb 01, 2010 10:38 am

LOL! Miss 3 get 1, miss another 2, get 1 = average 2 to 7 to win a 3x1

Combat
Cairo:
* 4
* 3
* 3
- vs -
Nairobi:
* 4
Combat
Cairo:
* 4
* 2
* 5
- vs -
Nairobi:
* 5
Combat
Cairo:
* 2
* 1
* 4
- vs -
Nairobi:
* 4
Combat
Cairo:
* 5
* 5
* 6
- vs -
Nairobi:
* 5

NEXT

Combat
Nairobi:
* 2
* 3
* 3
- vs -
Cape Town:
* 6

Combat
Nairobi:
* 4
* 2
* 2
- vs -
Cape Town:
* 4

Combat
Nairobi:
* 3
* 6
* 1
- vs -
Cape Town:
* 2
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby Timminz on Mon Feb 01, 2010 12:49 pm

Please stop cherry-picking results. If you're going to post your rolls, post them all, not just the turns you didn't like.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:05 am

Timminz wrote:Please stop cherry-picking results. If you're going to post your rolls, post them all, not just the turns you didn't like.


So if one day I get a streak of 20 failed 3x1 I cannot post about it?
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby The Neon Peon on Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:54 am

RADAGA wrote:
Timminz wrote:Please stop cherry-picking results. If you're going to post your rolls, post them all, not just the turns you didn't like.


So if one day I get a streak of 20 failed 3x1 I cannot post about it?


Basically, no. You don't post here every day, but you play once a day. And it just so happens that you only care to notify us of every bad roll you get.

Newsflash: everyone gets bad rolls. But all the rolls you are getting in between these posts balance those out and end up at average.

Download the dice analyzer plugin and post that.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Thu Feb 04, 2010 9:48 am

I did, for several weeks, showing a clear unbalance at the results, yet no one cares.

whatever, today 20x11 end 2x5 lost 18, killed 6 - usual results.

OH, and I am not complaining or blaming the defeats on bad dice. I catually won the previous two games I posted about. It is merely a quest for the truth.

I think a streak of 20 3x1 losses is something worth posting, This thing is expected to be so rare no one would actually see one.

0,000000028679720 % thats one in five billion.

Just as a matter of comparison:

1 : 280,000 thats the chance of being hit by lightning

you should be hit 18.000 times by lightning before getting a 20 streak of losses on a 3x1

I am 35. I have never been hit by lightning - I play on CC for about 1,5 years, I have had several dice that should happen fewer times than 1:280.000

The average out argument also is a fallacy. you can have a week of bad results and a week of good results, it averages out but it is not, by any chance, random.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby Timminz on Thu Feb 04, 2010 10:10 am

RADAGA wrote:The average out argument also is a fallacy. you can have a week of bad results and a week of good results, it averages out but it is not, by any chance, random.


So, you can determine a pattern, can you? Predict some rolls maybe?

Random =/= Fair
Random =/= Even

The problem is not with the dice. The problem is in your head.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:12 pm

Timminz wrote:
RADAGA wrote:The average out argument also is a fallacy. you can have a week of bad results and a week of good results, it averages out but it is not, by any chance, random.


So, you can determine a pattern, can you? Predict some rolls maybe?

Random =/= Fair
Random =/= Even

The problem is not with the dice. The problem is in your head.


Unpredictable =/= Random

Think about God - he is all knowing, meaning every thing is already fixed in a path to happen (or not)

Can you predict the future? Given someone (God) knows what it will happen, it is not random, yet you cannot predict it.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby Timminz on Thu Feb 04, 2010 2:22 pm

RADAGA wrote:
Timminz wrote:
RADAGA wrote:The average out argument also is a fallacy. you can have a week of bad results and a week of good results, it averages out but it is not, by any chance, random.


So, you can determine a pattern, can you? Predict some rolls maybe?

Random =/= Fair
Random =/= Even

The problem is not with the dice. The problem is in your head.


Unpredictable =/= Random

Think about God - he is all knowing, meaning every thing is already fixed in a path to happen (or not)

Can you predict the future? Given someone (God) knows what it will happen, it is not random, yet you cannot predict it.


KMFDM!!!

You've just proved that nothing can ever be random, because god knows....

Oh wait. There is no god. I guess the dice are still random, and you still just can't quite come to terms with how random numbers don't always work the way you expect them to.

The dice don't need to be changed. Your expectations do.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Mon Feb 08, 2010 8:17 am

Yeah, for instance, I should expect things likewhat just happened> 6x1 - lost five armies then 9x3 - lost six, killed none, then 6x1 - lost 3, finally killed 1.

so lost three 3x2 then seven 3x1 in a row

so, I threw 30 dice against 13 dice and managed to lose all of them.

Or that, that was expected

ROUND 1 - 2010-02-08 13:10:34 - RADAGA: LOL!!! 9x3 - lost all, killed none, 6x1, lost 3 before getting the land - very very "nice"

ROUND 3 - 2010-02-09 12:28:25 - RADAGA: yep. I just got on a 12x6 just to see it end in 3x3. It is amazing how the dice here are sometimes f*cked up

ROUND 5 - 2010-02-09 14:16:10 - RADAGA: 9x3 ... lost another six.
ROUND 5 - 2010-02-09 14:16:22 - RADAGA: whatever.... best of luck for you -

game over for me.....

Simple like that, thats something to be expected here.

One day I will have a flawless game to "average" this out, I am sure. I´ve learned random comes in streaks.... here.

Game 6425034 - I am dead on round three.... why? because not a single dice went right. I lost ALL and EVERY single attack I made. 3x1 3x2 2x2 you name it, I killed NONE
Last edited by RADAGA on Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:50 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby Timminz on Mon Feb 08, 2010 9:16 am

RADAGA wrote:Yeah, for instance, I should expect things likewhat just happened>


No. You should stop expecting the dice to behave in any predictable fashion.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:12 pm

And you say it is nothing wrong with dice>>that was an autoassault on an already lost game

Game 6382466

the results? TEN double losses / FIVE ties and meager THREE double wins - thats more double losses (expected to be 29%) than the sum of the other results (which should be a little more than 79%) - not to mention it starts with a streak of five double losses in a row...

I lost 25 armies and killed 11

Combat - Double lossx1

Roma: * 3 * 4 * 3
- vs -
Sardegna: * 4 * 5

Combat - double lossx2 (1 six - 10 dice)

Roma: * 3 * 5 * 3
- vs -
Sardegna: * 3 * 6

Combat - double lossx3 (2 sixes - 15 dice)

Roma: * 3 * 3 * 4
- vs -
Sardegna: * 6 * 4

Combat - double lossx4 (4 sixes - 20 dice)

Roma: * 3 * 4 * 5
- vs -
Sardegna: * 6 * 6

Combat - double lossx5 (6 sixes - 25 dice, second 66 in a row)

Roma: * 4 * 1 * 3
- vs -
Sardegna: * 6 * 6

Combat - double lossx5 / double winx1

Roma: * 5 * 2 * 3
- vs -
Sardegna: * 1 * 1

Combat - double lossx5 / double winx1 / tie x1

Roma: * 1 * 3 * 1
- vs -
Sardegna: * 2 * 2

Combat - double lossx5 / double winx2 / tie x1

Roma: * 2 * 5 * 4
- vs -
Sardegna: * 1 * 3

Combat - double lossx6 / double winx1 / tie x1 (ANOTHER 66 for defence)

Roma: * 4 * 5 * 2
- vs -
Sardegna: * 6 * 6

Combat - double lossx6 / double winx2 / tie x1

Roma: * 6 * 2 * 6
- vs -
Sardegna: * 1 * 4

Combat - double lossx6 / double winx2 / tie x2

Roma: * 4 * 2 * 3
- vs -
Sardegna: * 5 * 2

Combat - double lossx7 / double winx2 / tie x2

Roma: * 3 * 6 * 3
- vs -
Sardegna: * 5 * 6

Combat - - double lossx8 / double winx2 / tie x2

Roma: * 2 * 3 * 2
- vs -
Sardegna: * 4 * 5

Combat - double lossx8 / double winx2 / tie x3

Roma: * 3 * 2 * 6
- vs -
Sardegna: * 4 * 5

Combat - double lossx8 / double winx2 / tie x4

Roma: * 3 * 1 * 4
- vs -
Sardegna: * 3 * 1

Combat - double lossx9 / double winx2 / tie x4

Roma: * 2 * 3 * 2
- vs -
Sardegna: * 4 * 6

Combat - double lossx9 / double winx2 / tie x5

Roma: * 6 * 1 * 1
- vs -
Sardegna: * 2 * 1

Combat - double lossx10 / double winx2 / tie x5

Roma: * 3 * 2 * 3
- vs -
Sardegna: * 5 * 5

Combat - double lossx10 / double winx3 / tie x5

Roma: * 2 * 6 * 5
- vs -
Sardegna: * 1 * 5
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby Chuuuuck on Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:40 pm

Rolling 5 doubles losses in a row should statistically happen 1 time in every 487 sets of rolls.

Now think about how many rolls probably happen in a given day or even in a given hour on this site? I have rolled 1,000 armies vs 1,000 armies multiple times in 1 autoattack. It happens, the statistics don't lie. Quit complaining.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby Streaker on Mon Feb 15, 2010 10:28 am

The dice are just unfair today.

I lost my entire stack on taking someone's 1's all the way to his castle, and I had 22 against his 49. I won with 19 left and won easily.
That's just unfair :-$
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Mon Feb 15, 2010 3:48 pm

Streaker wrote:The dice are just unfair today.

I lost my entire stack on taking someone's 1's all the way to his castle, and I had 22 against his 49. I won with 19 left and won easily.
That's just unfair :-$


It is. kill 49 and lose 2 is just as surreal as the other way around. You just think it is normal because your perceptions are weird.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby Timminz on Mon Feb 15, 2010 5:23 pm

RADAGA wrote:You just think it is normal because your perceptions are weird.


Hey now! You're not allowed to use that argument! :lol:
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Fri Feb 19, 2010 9:06 am

Timminz wrote:
RADAGA wrote:You just think it is normal because your perceptions are weird.


Hey now! You're not allowed to use that argument! :lol:


I know, it is just evil because it cannot be contested ;)
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Sun Feb 21, 2010 1:28 pm

Lame, as usual.

21x12 - end 2x7

14x10 - end 2x9

16x7 - end 1x1

10x10 - end 2x4

All in a single round, all against the same (higher ranking, paying) opponent.

Is he Random.org owner? Or he bought a premium set of dice for his defence rolls?

After those failed attacks, another one came and stole my kill. Once again....
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby The Neon Peon on Sun Feb 21, 2010 9:01 pm

I'm going to make a radical assumption here, it's in several parts, so please bare with me:
1. When you attack with a 4, you roll 3 dice
2. When you attack with a 3, you roll 2 dice
3. When you attack with a 2, you roll 1 die
4. When a defender has 1 troop, he/she rolls 1 die
5. When a defender has more than 1 troop, he/she rolls 2 dice

Assuming all that to be correct, this:
RADAGA wrote:14x10 - end 2x9

Is impossible.

Other than that, if you want anyone to care, you should post a dice analyzer of hundreds of thousands of rolls. On my old laptop, I had it get up to somewhere around 700,000-800,000 rolls with me winning 0.2% more than probable. As far as I'm concerned, you're getting average dice in your other games, seeing as you come here to complain about every bad roll, yet only do so once a week. I can only assume that all the other rolls you had that week were good.
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Re: 'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)

Postby RADAGA on Mon Feb 22, 2010 12:28 pm

The Neon Peon wrote:Other than that, if you want anyone to care, you should post a dice analyzer of hundreds of thousands of rolls. On my old laptop, I had it get up to somewhere around 700,000-800,000 rolls with me winning 0.2% more than probable. As far as I'm concerned, you're getting average dice in your other games, seeing as you come here to complain about every bad roll, yet only do so once a week. I can only assume that all the other rolls you had that week were good.


Yes, bu tthe bad rolls come is sequence, ALWAYS.

I simply cannot accept it is perfectly normal to lose 11x3 up to 2x3 (yesterday) and today, attacking 3x1 I got a 6,5,1 x 6, another 6,6,2 x 6 another 4,2,1 x 6 and another 1,1,6 x 6 defending, and then moving toward another attack, manage to get a 3x2 rolling 6,5,2 and the defender get a 6,6 - just too many sixes to be believable.

21 dice - should wield 3 or 4 of each number, in the average. - and it got twice as expected sixes. not one more or one less, but TWICE

last week I posted an autoattack where defence got TWICE the expected wins as well, pooling over 70% of the results.

Autoattack and observe - it ALWAYS come like that - a row of 3-7 double wins, or a roll of 3 - 7 double losses, with negligible exceptions.

In large numbers, you get a lot of sixes in a row but a lot of others in a row as well, and get a good average, compatible with the statisticals expectancies.

Again, if the numbers tend to come in streaks and ties always favor defence, it gets complicated.
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