Mr Changsha wrote:But you should take into account my 'key moment' theory.
I have come to the conclusion that dice-complainers are actually experiencing extremely bad dice (as we all of course do), but their's more often come just at the moment they really don't want them.
This curse is really most heinous. His actual dice stats show +1, but this is really irrelevent as it is the timing of when luck strikes that is key.
Absolutely this is true, and too often overlooked. Across one game or a few games it is the dice at the critical moment(s), the moment(s) of decision that matter. I would rather have negative dice stats across the game and positive dice stats at the critical moments (eg breaking a bonus, when the first stacks meet in a conquest game, holding my 12th terr and that critical +1 drop against a 7-3 attack) than I would have postive dice stats across the whole game. I'm sure many of you have played escalating games where one lucky territory survives against enormous odds, you cash and sweep the board... A game can be won or lost on just 4 or 8 or 12 good dice throws, and the other 40 or 800 or 12000 throws in the game, as long as they are not wildly uneven, are just fillers to give the statisticians their comfort blanket.
Even so, I don't have sympathy for the dice-complainers over the long-term. One of the skills of playing is to ensure that you are not dependent on the fate of a few key throws. Make sure you have enough going on to insure against the bad luck when it comes and that good luck when you get it will put you out of reach of your opponents.
You can see how the really good players do it. If the drop is uneven they niggle away at their opponent's strengths before they launch their own assault. In escalating singles, if they get bad dice when they make their victory run, somehow they will seem to stop just in time and leave a block in just the right place to frustrate the players who come after them. On conquest maps the good players will make sure they have a preponderance of troops before they meet the enemy's mass. In no spoils quads they will be posing multiple threats so that if the dice undo one strategy they will have another to fall back on....
Very often I think losing is a self-fulfilling prophecy for those with a fatalistic attitude to dice. They lose one big hit against the odds and give up on the game. Call down calumnies on their opponents, stop paying attention to the game or choose glorious suicide. Tenacious point-grubbers like myself will hang in there, and sometimes in just a turn or two you are gifted a turn of positive dice results against the odds, quite enough to overturn the horrendous dice you just experienced on the losing side... and suddenly you are back in the game.
I get a kick when my opponents complain about my dice after I've played well... so sweet that they did not even see the strategy that pulverised them.