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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby 2-Pair_Nelson on Sun Oct 21, 2012 11:18 am

Dice stats mean absolutely nothing to me. They calculate based on your average roll but they don't show the outcomes. If I roll 6's more than likely I notice my opponent rolls a 6 too. I did a random sample from that dice service last night. I rolled 120 random dice and it worked out that the "defender" would have actually faired better than the attacker, even though the attacker rolls 3. Of course I only took into account 3v2 dice stats. And yes, I get the worst dice at the most inopportune times. I would suggest a service that actually takes into account probably. Maybe one that adds a certain percent(0.1) for rolling better dice for every 5 troops you have on your opponent.
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby 2-Pair_Nelson on Sun Oct 21, 2012 11:24 am

Also with regards to the drops I am referring to, opponents will end up with whole continents and the first turn in a game while I end up with a random spread where 3-4 regions are locked by neutrals. I can't count how many times this has happened to me. Whenever I start a game I make it manual with no cards. That is the fairest option offered in this website.
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby chang50 on Sun Oct 21, 2012 11:54 am

ANelson11 wrote:Also with regards to the drops I am referring to, opponents will end up with whole continents and the first turn in a game while I end up with a random spread where 3-4 regions are locked by neutrals. I can't count how many times this has happened to me. Whenever I start a game I make it manual with no cards. That is the fairest option offered in this website.


You really are convinced you are unluckier than other players aren't you?As long as you labour under this mistaken belief you will never do what you need to in order to improve because you think you already know why you aren't more successful.Just consider how few high rankers complain about their luck,its no coincidence,they generally have a very good understanding of probability and can look objectively at their games.
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby 2-Pair_Nelson on Sun Oct 21, 2012 1:29 pm

I never said I was unluckier than anyone. I made this a topic of discussion to see if everyone is having the same problem that I am. I have landed a good drop 3 or 4 times but I have been on the receiving end of bad drops more often. I lost over 500 points in 8 days because of horrible situations. I do not play bad at all. For example, just last night, I played a set that was sure to take my opponent out on a classic map. I get all the way down to his last troop and the dice fail and I don't take him out. The next turn he plays a set of 50 and evens it out. I play a couple troops to bust his bonus and the next turn he gets another set and ends the game. That is stupid that I can have a guy down to 1 troop vs 4 and lose to 3 straight 6s and ultimately lose the game because the cards are in his favor now.
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby 2-Pair_Nelson on Sun Oct 21, 2012 6:04 pm

Funny how I mention this and here are three game examples in the last 20 minutes where this has occurred.

2 bad drop games that I played back to back!:
Read the log and you will see the drop results. Not only were they given a sweet drop, they were given the first turn.
11830570
11830576

1 with terrible dice. (lost 13-1 attacking a neutral to bust in Terres Rouges)
11830471

I am not making this stuff up guys. Something needs to be done. We are paying money for this and we are getting screwed over.
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby MrBenn on Sun Oct 21, 2012 6:18 pm

ANelson11 wrote:Funny how I mention this and here are three game examples in the last 20 minutes where this has occurred.

2 bad drop games that I played back to back!:
Read the log and you will see the drop results. Not only were they given a sweet drop, they were given the first turn.
11830570
11830576

1 with terrible dice. (lost 13-1 attacking a neutral to bust in Terres Rouges)
11830471

I am not making this stuff up guys. Something needs to be done. We are paying money for this and we are getting screwed over.

Map Rank shows that you have won 356 from 727 (49%) of your 1v1 games. Perhaps you need to start depending a little less on luck and trying to learn some strategy?

(edit: I say this with a 1v1 win percentage of merely 47% - when I played, I preferred games with more players which were less luck-dependent)
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby Funkyterrance on Sun Oct 21, 2012 6:59 pm

ANelson11 wrote:It would be complaining if I only did it ever so often, but if its a reoccurring thing everyday that is another thing. Honestly the dice system is bogus. Anyone who plays me knows that I say the dice and the drops are horrible. The drops on this site seem to be horribly one sided most of the time I play a 1v1 game and it is almost impossible to overcome the drop if the dice are bad, which I have almost undoubtedly come to assume they will be bad. I can see a chance of losing when you attack 7v4 but when you attack 28v8 and lose that is just retarded. Good strategies should win the games but the dice win or lose games.


If you are truly not just remembering the bad drops/dice runs, did you ever consider that maybe you are just having bad luck? This is more probable than a less-than-random system. Trust me, anyone who has played risk all that much has had 28v8 stacks lose. I've also been on the other side and it's an awesome and thrilling experience, especially if it wins you the game. :D
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby AndyDufresne on Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:36 pm



Here is a pretty great ~2min video about Randomness, produced by the awesome SciShow. Check it out, fun and informative!


--Andy
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby maxfaraday on Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:07 pm

lol a couple weeks ago i lost a 19vs1 can anyone beat that?
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:58 am

Funkyterrance wrote:
nietzsche wrote:When will people stop complaining about the dice?

Dice is just random.


When will people stop complaining about people complaining about dice?


When will people stop complaining about people who ask for people to stop complaining about the dice complaining?
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby Funkyterrance on Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:15 am

BigBallinStalin wrote:
Funkyterrance wrote:
nietzsche wrote:When will people stop complaining about the dice?

Dice is just random.


When will people stop complaining about people complaining about dice?


When will people stop complaining about people who ask for people to stop complaining about the dice complaining?


That's easy. When the people who complain about people complaining about dice stop complaining.
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby chang50 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:34 am

Funkyterrance wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:
Funkyterrance wrote:
nietzsche wrote:When will people stop complaining about the dice?

Dice is just random.


When will people stop complaining about people complaining about dice?


When will people stop complaining about people who ask for people to stop complaining about the dice complaining?


That's easy. When the people who complain about people complaining about dice stop complaining.


Ad infinitum..ad nauseam.
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby king achilles on Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:45 am

What about the opponents who have beaten you in these games where you say you had the worst dice ever? Will they also say they too, are having bad dice rolls in their games? So does it mean they are also losing? Then if we ask the opponents who have beaten them, will they also say the same thing? The players who beat you, will also have their own dice stories to tell where they will also say they should have won easily. The game where he beat you? he probably have already forgotten about it or can't remember what kind of rolls he had in that game as he wins because of his strategy and only loses because of the dice.
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby laughingcavalier on Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:31 pm

Mr Changsha wrote:But you should take into account my 'key moment' theory.

I have come to the conclusion that dice-complainers are actually experiencing extremely bad dice (as we all of course do), but their's more often come just at the moment they really don't want them.

....

This curse is really most heinous. His actual dice stats show +1, but this is really irrelevent as it is the timing of when luck strikes that is key.


Absolutely this is true, and too often overlooked. Across one game or a few games it is the dice at the critical moment(s), the moment(s) of decision that matter. I would rather have negative dice stats across the game and positive dice stats at the critical moments (eg breaking a bonus, when the first stacks meet in a conquest game, holding my 12th terr and that critical +1 drop against a 7-3 attack) than I would have postive dice stats across the whole game. I'm sure many of you have played escalating games where one lucky territory survives against enormous odds, you cash and sweep the board... A game can be won or lost on just 4 or 8 or 12 good dice throws, and the other 40 or 800 or 12000 throws in the game, as long as they are not wildly uneven, are just fillers to give the statisticians their comfort blanket.

Even so, I don't have sympathy for the dice-complainers over the long-term. One of the skills of playing is to ensure that you are not dependent on the fate of a few key throws. Make sure you have enough going on to insure against the bad luck when it comes and that good luck when you get it will put you out of reach of your opponents.

You can see how the really good players do it. If the drop is uneven they niggle away at their opponent's strengths before they launch their own assault. In escalating singles, if they get bad dice when they make their victory run, somehow they will seem to stop just in time and leave a block in just the right place to frustrate the players who come after them. On conquest maps the good players will make sure they have a preponderance of troops before they meet the enemy's mass. In no spoils quads they will be posing multiple threats so that if the dice undo one strategy they will have another to fall back on....

Very often I think losing is a self-fulfilling prophecy for those with a fatalistic attitude to dice. They lose one big hit against the odds and give up on the game. Call down calumnies on their opponents, stop paying attention to the game or choose glorious suicide. Tenacious point-grubbers like myself will hang in there, and sometimes in just a turn or two you are gifted a turn of positive dice results against the odds, quite enough to overturn the horrendous dice you just experienced on the losing side... and suddenly you are back in the game.

I get a kick when my opponents complain about my dice after I've played well... so sweet that they did not even see the strategy that pulverised them.
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Re: Probably a common discussion

Postby chapcrap on Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:11 pm

laughingcavalier wrote:
Mr Changsha wrote:But you should take into account my 'key moment' theory.

I have come to the conclusion that dice-complainers are actually experiencing extremely bad dice (as we all of course do), but their's more often come just at the moment they really don't want them.

....

This curse is really most heinous. His actual dice stats show +1, but this is really irrelevent as it is the timing of when luck strikes that is key.


Absolutely this is true, and too often overlooked. Across one game or a few games it is the dice at the critical moment(s), the moment(s) of decision that matter. I would rather have negative dice stats across the game and positive dice stats at the critical moments (eg breaking a bonus, when the first stacks meet in a conquest game, holding my 12th terr and that critical +1 drop against a 7-3 attack) than I would have postive dice stats across the whole game. I'm sure many of you have played escalating games where one lucky territory survives against enormous odds, you cash and sweep the board... A game can be won or lost on just 4 or 8 or 12 good dice throws, and the other 40 or 800 or 12000 throws in the game, as long as they are not wildly uneven, are just fillers to give the statisticians their comfort blanket.

Even so, I don't have sympathy for the dice-complainers over the long-term. One of the skills of playing is to ensure that you are not dependent on the fate of a few key throws. Make sure you have enough going on to insure against the bad luck when it comes and that good luck when you get it will put you out of reach of your opponents.

You can see how the really good players do it. If the drop is uneven they niggle away at their opponent's strengths before they launch their own assault. In escalating singles, if they get bad dice when they make their victory run, somehow they will seem to stop just in time and leave a block in just the right place to frustrate the players who come after them. On conquest maps the good players will make sure they have a preponderance of troops before they meet the enemy's mass. In no spoils quads they will be posing multiple threats so that if the dice undo one strategy they will have another to fall back on....

Very often I think losing is a self-fulfilling prophecy for those with a fatalistic attitude to dice. They lose one big hit against the odds and give up on the game. Call down calumnies on their opponents, stop paying attention to the game or choose glorious suicide. Tenacious point-grubbers like myself will hang in there, and sometimes in just a turn or two you are gifted a turn of positive dice results against the odds, quite enough to overturn the horrendous dice you just experienced on the losing side... and suddenly you are back in the game.

I get a kick when my opponents complain about my dice after I've played well... so sweet that they did not even see the strategy that pulverised them.

Well said.
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