Conquer Club

sempaispellcheck wrote:Thanks for that, agentcom! Now I know why my score has fallen so far recently.

np

MoB Deadly wrote:Agent, how long did it take to make that graph?

I just made a spreadsheet that allows me to paste in the data from the whole row and it spits out the percentages. So, then it was just a matter of telling excel to make a chart out of the right columns and with the right labels. I could actually tell you pretty much exactly how long that project took because of the time stamps on the original posts (that I quoted above) ... brb ... Looks like it took me about 45 minutes to format the spreadsheet, make the chart and type all of that second post. But with the spreadsheet that I have now, I could add other players to it in maybe 30 seconds per player.

Balch wrote:You look at making desperate rolls as a cause, but it's the effect. I get steamrolled by rolls so hard I consistently get put into 'I need a miracle or I'm done' scenarios.

If I had to guess, I would say that you're going into desperation mode too soon rather than just playing it out. There's a time for desperation, sure, but it's not every time you get hit with a bit of bad luck.

DoomYoshi wrote:Why is 3v1 a disadvantageous roll? It has greater than 50% chance of success.

I thought this might come up ... I kind of lumped it in there. It's really halfway between. It's not the best situation (that would be a 4v1), but it's not bad. All other things being equal, you would prefer to wait on making that attack until you can drop a troop there, but sometimes you have to (say to bring the other player below 12). If I had to make a rule (based on this very limited sample), it would be that those rolls of 3v1 (2 dice v 1 die) should probably be around 3% and all the rest of the short rolls should add up to another 2 or 3%.

And your numbers look right to me, and I was thinking the same thing ... that it looks like Goranz.

With atmospheric noise anything is possible!

Well, that'd be an inaccurate guess. I outplay most of my opponents until at some point, sometimes early, sometimes a little later, they just steamroll me, usually killing 10-20 troops while keeping their casualties under 2.

Attendance:
88% of turns taken <---- likely has something to do with your win / loss ratio.

Balch wrote:Well, that'd be an inaccurate guess. I outplay most of my opponents until at some point, sometimes early, sometimes a little later, they just steamroll me, usually killing 10-20 troops while keeping their casualties under 2.

Since you started playing you have a net point gain , this suggests that you are ignoring the fact that the dice have also favoured you on many occasions. It would seem that the problem with you is arrogance rather than bad dice , get off your high horse and stop whining.

People, may i please remind all that this is Q&A and not some recurrance of flamewars. Please be more patient and a little nicer to new players.

Beltch, there is a lot of info posted in these 2 pages that should help you with your game. Everybody gets the same chance on dice though, so sometimes you have a luck streak or an unlucky streak. Enevitably, you too wil the a lucky streak. How you can make the most of it, is up to you

Great chart! That's an idea that I have never thought of before.

It should be useful for me. But mine are a bit off, in that when its a big map and i have clearly lost I attack until I have only 1s one the board.

SirSebstar wrote:People, may i please remind all that this is Q&A and not some recurrance of flamewars. Please be more patient and a little nicer to new players.

Beltch, there is a lot of info posted in these 2 pages that should help you with your game. Everybody gets the same chance on dice though, so sometimes you have a luck streak or an unlucky streak. Enevitably, you too wil the a lucky streak. How you can make the most of it, is up to you

LMAO!!! Subversive comedy, I love it.

i've always suspected my poor rank was a reflection of my skill, not the dice.

heres hoping agentcom doesn't bitchslap me down to cook with some graphs.

greenoaks wrote:i've always suspected my poor rank was a reflection of my skill, not the dice.
heres hoping agentcom doesn't bitchslap me down to cook with some graphs.

....................................

generalhead wrote:Wouldn't it be the easiest to say that every ones dice draws come from the same place so how could it be unfair. Maybe if you could explain how the dice draws are unfair for one player and not for another when they pull from the same place. every one gets bad dice and every one gets good dice. To become a better player you have to play the dice. If you roll and lose two troops and they lose non if might be smart to wait for another round to attack again. Some players will roll lose two, roll lose two, roll lose two. I recommend if you roll and lose two the first roll stop and wait for another round.

I was thinking about this, now isn't the dice generator counted by player? Does the player A rolling right now draw from the same generator sequence as player B rolling right after them? I was curious to know if the generator is counting overall for CC? Where are those stats? Since I look at my dice stats, and they are within normal range, I am curious if my player name is associated with a sequence, or is it CC as a whole that runs off the random generating sequence?

I don't know that there is a sequence. I could be wrong, but I always thought the numbers were determined when you rolled - 3, 4, or 5 at a time, depending on how many dice were rolled.

I remember reading somewhere before where I think Andy posted that CC pulls a list of 50,000 or so numbers (1-6, obviously) at a time, and it cycles through that list over and over until they get another list, I guess every hour or something like that. Keep in mind I remember reading this quite a while ago, so I could be completely wrong, but I think that's how he explained it.

tkr4lf wrote:I remember reading somewhere before where I think Andy posted that CC pulls a list of 50,000 or so numbers (1-6, obviously) at a time, and it cycles through that list over and over until they get another list, I guess every hour or something like that. Keep in mind I remember reading this quite a while ago, so I could be completely wrong, but I think that's how he explained it.

Yeah, I have looked into the dice subject off and on over the years, so I remember seeing a sequence, or as you said pulling a lot of numbers, running them through, etc. etc.

It just seems that this is also flawed though, since you are only pulling a specific number. It is like counting cards at blackjack, where as you could watch stats and determine when is the best time to roll. yes? I know it is impossible to see the numbers but you could check dice stats on people, or make a program to do it, thus showing you how the dice are rolling in the past 25 attacks/battles, if you were able to load all the players into a program like that, you would be able to determine when it is best to take your turns??? No?

This theory is just based on this quote above, not saying it is what is happening.

For the record, I don't write code so I am not sure if this type of program is even possible...I can barely remember to put in the slash to make a strike in my threads...just kidding I remember!

About the dice

22. How does the dice work?

We have a series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org. Each time the game engine processes an assault or auto-assault, it select a random spot in the series to read from using a pseudo-random computer function. Each time the game engine rolls the dice, the next number is read in sequence from the series (e.g. in a 3v1 attack 4 numbers are read sequentially). The series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org is replaced every hour. As of June 2010 we process 1,000,000 assaults per day.
23. Seriously, how could I possibly lose X troops while assaulting a region that only had Y? Are the dice broken?

The dice on this site are randomized by Random.org and by being an active member of Conquer Club you experience a very large number of dice rolls so it is natural to occasionally get your ass kicked. It is human nature to remember the losses more than the wins.
24. Why is the amount of data on my dice stats more/less than I expect?

First of all, we only started recording dice stats as of May 2011 so battles before that date are not included in the data. We only store the last 100 battles per player over all opponents as "recent" stats, so if you filter recent stats by opponent over 25 battles there there might not be 25 "recent" battles with that specific opponent and less data will appear than expected. Also, auto-assaults are considered a single battle so recent stats may contain more data than expected if there were auto-assaults.
25. How is luck calculated on my dice stats?

For dice distribution, luck is the actual average roll over the expected average roll (i.e. 3.5). Luck can range from -100% for an average roll of 1.00 to +100% for an average roll of 6.00.

For battle outcomes, luck is based on the ratio of kills over losses. For each type of battle (e.g. 3 vs 2, 1 vs 1, etc.) we know the expected ratio of kills over losses for both assault and defend based on the table below.
3 vs 2 3 vs 1 2 vs 2 2 vs 1 1 vs 2 1 vs 1
Assault 54.0% 66.0% 39.0% 57.9% 25.5% 41.7%
Defend 46.0% 34.0% 61.0% 42.1% 74.5% 58.3%

Luck is how many percentage points the actual ratio is above or below the expected ratio. To calculate total luck (i.e. assault + defend) we take a weighted average of ratios based on the amounts of assult battles and defend battles.

Red and green are used to emphasize negative and positive luck, respectively.

SirSebstar wrote:About the dice

22. How does the dice work?

We have a series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org. Each time the game engine processes an assault or auto-assault, it select a random spot in the series to read from using a pseudo-random computer function. Each time the game engine rolls the dice, the next number is read in sequence from the series (e.g. in a 3v1 attack 4 numbers are read sequentially). The series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org is replaced every hour. As of June 2010 we process 1,000,000 assaults per day.

So then it is possible that when a player rolls his sequence could be drawn from the exact same spot in the sequence as he drew from the previous roll? I am sure the odds on that are very high, but it is still possible?

Also, I didn't quote it here, but you said auto-assaults are only counted as 1 battle? Does that change or configure the overall dice stats of a player? In other words, if a player only auto-assaults, is his numbers going to be more closely aligned to center versus a player who only single assaults every attack (in the short term)? Obviously in the long-term, it will average out regardless of the method.

kennys777 wrote:So then it is possible that when a player rolls his sequence could be drawn from the exact same spot in the sequence as he drew from the previous roll? I am sure the odds on that are very high, but it is still possible?

Yes, it is possible. I wouldn't bet on it, though. And even if that happens, that does not impugn the randomness of the process.

However, writing a code to take advantage of this fact would be nigh on impossible. Since each assault starts at a place on the list that is picked by the PRNG, you'd have to know how what PRNG it is and how to crack it, and also somehow know exactly how many die rolls are occurring on CC instantaneously. I'm not sure it would even be possible to collect the data in a fast enough manner to keep up with the die rolls that are actively happening.

kennys777 wrote:

SirSebstar wrote:About the dice

22. How does the dice work?

We have a series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org. Each time the game engine processes an assault or auto-assault, it select a random spot in the series to read from using a pseudo-random computer function. Each time the game engine rolls the dice, the next number is read in sequence from the series (e.g. in a 3v1 attack 4 numbers are read sequentially). The series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org is replaced every hour. As of June 2010 we process 1,000,000 assaults per day.

So then it is possible that when a player rolls his sequence could be drawn from the exact same spot in the sequence as he drew from the previous roll? I am sure the odds on that are very high, but it is still possible?

Also, I didn't quote it here, but you said auto-assaults are only counted as 1 battle? Does that change or configure the overall dice stats of a player? In other words, if a player only auto-assaults, is his numbers going to be more closely aligned to center versus a player who only single assaults every attack (in the short term)? Obviously in the long-term, it will average out regardless of the method.

even if this was true it would be true for both players so it would still be even play.

I don't think it would be possible to count the card (dice) either because the number draw would be random every time.

It's actually not possible. Simple math will prove this.

Every hour 50 000 numbers are drawn. This means 1.2 million numbers are drawn. CC processes only 1 million attacks a day. This means that not all the numbers are gone through. If not all the numbers go through, it will never come back around.

Now, we of course realize that there are peak times of usage that the numbers might go around. However, I highly doubt they will go around more than twice in any hour period. Therefore, you won't be able to take advantage of this unless you start attacking right at the beginning of the new 50 000 and it is also the busiest time of day.

Of course, cc could just start taking 100 000 numbers if anyone did this to get an advanatage on one die roll every 24 hours.

Edit: yea, I derped and forgot that every assault can use 4 different numbers. However, it still takes a while for the numbers to cycle around and you couldnt get more than a few guaranteed rolls every hour or so.

I appreciate the discussion. Just random things that cross my mind at times, and lately I have noticed how poor my dice have been, but again, they are within the normal range overall since stats started...

Balch wrote:I've played a little over a dozen games, and these are common, if not expected results:

-My 7 attacking 1, lose all 6 men.
-Their 10 attacking my 10, they lose 0 men and capture.
-Their 25 attacking my 15, they lose 1 man and capture.
-It takes 5 cards for me to get a set, every set, every game.
-I have a seen a lone defender roll a 6 5 times in a row.

This is the majority of the game, every game. What the f*ck kind of acid high were you on when you wrote this programming?

I know how frustrating it can seem when you are constantly losing units and doing very little damage in return. And I do agree that the coding isn't 100% random. I've run into players who can completely take out an evenly matched opponent without losing more then 10% of their force... I've also been that player. It happens.

Think of it like Black Jack. I once saw a guy get dealt Black Jack or dealt 20 for 17 consecutive hands. Dealt mind you, now draw. During that time no one left the table or came to the table. I didn't take Stats, but I'm guessing the odds of that happening are pretty damn slim. Probably even less then what was happening to you. Sometimes people have hot streaks. Sometimes people have cold streaks. The thing is, we naturally remember the negatives more then we remember the positives.

Right now, I feel like I am in a losing slump. I kill 3 for every 5 I lose. And it's easy to forget the time a few games ago when I killed 15 units and only lost 2. Or killed 10 and lost 1. Or killed 12 and lost 3.

Maybe you just need to be more conservative. If you lose 6 troops in an attack and your opponent only loses one, stop attacking.

You also have to remember that the defense always has the advantage. Always. That's why people attack 20 v 10 and not 10 v 10.

Ghost20021 wrote:....... And I do agree that the coding isn't 100% random. I've run into players who can completely take out an evenly matched opponent without losing more then 10% of their force... I've also been that player. It happens.

eh, thats the textbook of randomness.. like seriously... if everybody can get those dice, and there is no fixed pattern in them, then thats random... if you expect a 6 every dice you roll or all your 6-1 attacks to work, then thats no longer random

Ghost20021 wrote:You also have to remember that the defense always has the advantage. Always. That's why people attack 20 v 10 and not 10 v 10.

You also need to remember that the ATTACKER!!!!!!!!!!! has the ADVANTAGE!!. ALWAYS (when hitting 3 with 4)!!!!
thats why people attack 10-20. You dont expect to win that very often, but you can on average expect to do more damage then you get, as an attacker.....

ok, edit by me................my dice stink, I suck, I drop in bad position on purpuse and yes I'm a bad player.................nothing random about it. Sorry Conquerclub you're the BEST!

Larry46 wrote:this fucking site and it's so called "random" dice is rigged................F U C K Off Conquerclub!

eh Larry46, whats up with you man? Why do you say such a thing. How is it rigged, who would profit from it. Its not rigged, period.
If you lose, its because you are a bad player, or because you had bad luck on crucial moments. Tough dude, but it happens.
So why this then?