Chain odds

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Chain odds

Postby ViperOverLord on Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:20 pm

How do they work?

For instance, I've seen people post stuff like this:

9:2,2,2 (56%)

What formula and/or website do you use?
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Re: Chain odds

Postby Fewnix on Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:28 pm

I believe it's Assault Odds

viewtopic.php?f=527&t=139337&p=3404232#p3404232

Re: Conquer Club User Guides
Postby Calidrmr on Thu Oct 13, 2011 9:11 pm
Assault Odds User Guide

hide: Assault Odds User Guide
Assault Odds

Introduction

Need to know your odds of taking that territory? Now you can! Assault odds is a tool that quickly calculates precise odds for attacking a sequence of territories on any map.
It has been deliberately designed to be faster than other similar calculators and it will also handle larger numbers of armies.
It consists of a Quick calculator and a Pathfinder
You can show/hide these windows on your games page by using the options in the left menu.



Step 1: If you already have Firefox and Greasemonkey, and you are familiar with how to install Greasemonkey scripts, proceed directly to Step 2. Otherwise, you can get Firefox, Greasemonkey and instructions for installing scripts here:

Firefox Installation Guide

Greasemonkey Install and Uninstall Guide

General Greasemonkey Script Install and Uninstall Guide

Google Chrome users can now use this script - click on viewtopic.php?f=59&t=73696#p2137958 to see how to install.

Step 2: To load the Conquer Club Assault Odds script, CLICK HERE or type http://userscripts.org/scripts/source/45949.user.js into the Firefox Location Bar, then click the "Install" button in the Greasemonkey Installation window which appears.

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Re: Chain odds

Postby Funkyterrance on Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:37 pm

I can't believe people actually use stuff like this...
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Postby 2dimes on Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:45 pm

I can.
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Re:

Postby Funkyterrance on Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:56 pm

2dimes wrote:I can.

Do they crack out the statistics book and calculator when they play at home too? Fked up.
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Postby 2dimes on Sat Mar 30, 2013 3:05 pm

Probably, if they're not able to just do the math in their heads. You certainly underestimate the nerd level here.
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Re:

Postby Funkyterrance on Sat Mar 30, 2013 3:19 pm

2dimes wrote:Probably, if they're not able to just do the math in their heads. You certainly underestimate the nerd level here.

Yeah, evidently. I think that part of the fun of the game is guesstimating though and I would think this add-on would spoil it. I think I may overestimate the value of fun as well. I wonder how many player's only joy here is winning a game? Seems like a diminished return if it were the case.
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Postby 2dimes on Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:19 pm

Funkyterrance wrote: I wonder how many player's only joy here is winning a game?

I calculate 50% of our team in our doubles games. :P I admit you have a nice hat by your name though.
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Re: Re:

Postby Denise on Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:51 pm

Funkyterrance wrote:
2dimes wrote:Probably, if they're not able to just do the math in their heads. You certainly underestimate the nerd level here.

Yeah, evidently. I think that part of the fun of the game is guesstimating though and I would think this add-on would spoil it. I think I may overestimate the value of fun as well. I wonder how many player's only joy here is winning a game? Seems like a diminished return if it were the case.


Of course winning is fun and joyful! What else is there? I have this add on but I don't use it very often. It's helpful when there are 2 ways to break a bonus.

I calculate the odds are 0.8184100971621445 % Funky will disagree.
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Re: Re:

Postby Dukasaur on Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:10 pm

Funkyterrance wrote:
2dimes wrote:Probably, if they're not able to just do the math in their heads. You certainly underestimate the nerd level here.

Yeah, evidently. I think that part of the fun of the game is guesstimating though and I would think this add-on would spoil it. I think I may overestimate the value of fun as well. I wonder how many player's only joy here is winning a game? Seems like a diminished return if it were the case.

I definitely would not say that winning a game is the only joy, but it certainly is one of the joys. A far greater joy, however, is expressed in the immortal words of Hannibal Smith, "I love it when a plan comes together!" Creating a brilliant plan and having it succeed is a great joy, and if it ultimately results in winning that is wonderful, but even if there is eventually a loss that the pleasure of the brilliant plan remains.

In order to assemble a brilliant plan you use the most accurate data possible, and while certainly one has to estimate some things to save time, at critical junctions only calculation will do.
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Re: Chain odds

Postby greenoaks on Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:16 pm

i don't use Assault Odds, i use my gut.

sometimes my gut is full of wine.
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Re:

Postby Funkyterrance on Sat Mar 30, 2013 6:05 pm

2dimes wrote:
Funkyterrance wrote: I wonder how many player's only joy here is winning a game?

I calculate 50% of our team in our doubles games.

Wow man, I assumed the feeling was mutual that we would have had fun whether we won or lost. :(

I like winning of course but there are many other aspects, including guesswork and comradery, that make playing on CC fun for me. As I alluded earlier, if winning were my only joy here I would have left long ago.
As far as my rank, of course I'm always going to try to win.
Anyway, my point was not that I really care if someone only plays games solely for the end result but that it seems like a diminished return fun-wise. I also wrote "I wonder" not "Whoever does such and such is a loser". I'm amazed at the existence of these scripts on a "casual gaming site" more than anything. Tbh, the issue is really no sweat off my sack.
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Postby 2dimes on Sat Mar 30, 2013 9:12 pm

Oh oh, that joke went a little too far I guess.
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Re:

Postby Funkyterrance on Sat Mar 30, 2013 9:42 pm

2dimes wrote:Oh oh, that joke went a little too far I guess.

Tbh it's hard to tell these days.
You must understand that considering my reputation on these forums as an extremist I am obligated to explicitly state my level of concern/attitude else people will automatically assume the worst. In other words, I'm not overly involved in this topic, I'm just musing.
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Postby 2dimes on Sat Mar 30, 2013 9:53 pm

Ok, because I understand that though I'm typically playing, people seem to have this thing called feelings and on occasion I stomp them into pulp quite efficiently without intent of malice.
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Re:

Postby Funkyterrance on Sat Mar 30, 2013 10:17 pm

2dimes wrote:Ok, because I understand that though I'm typically playing, people seem to have this thing called feelings and on occasion I stomp them into pulp quite efficiently without intent of malice.

My reply was meant to be a joke as well 2dimes... Exibit A: Wow man, I assumed the feeling was mutual that we would have had fun whether we won or lost. :(
See how easy it is to get the wrong idea on here? However, you can rest assured that I am an "all's well that ends well" type of guy so no harm done.
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Postby 2dimes on Sat Mar 30, 2013 10:27 pm

Yes well text sucks and I'm the worst at it but basically.

Joke, reaction, yada yada. dimes like the Funk...
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Re: Chain odds

Postby ViperOverLord on Sun Mar 31, 2013 12:12 am

Fewnix wrote:I believe it's Assault Odds

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 2#p3404232

Re: Conquer Club User Guides
Postby Calidrmr on Thu Oct 13, 2011 9:11 pm
Assault Odds User Guide

hide: Assault Odds User Guide
Assault Odds

Introduction

Need to know your odds of taking that territory? Now you can! Assault odds is a tool that quickly calculates precise odds for attacking a sequence of territories on any map.
It has been deliberately designed to be faster than other similar calculators and it will also handle larger numbers of armies.
It consists of a Quick calculator and a Pathfinder
You can show/hide these windows on your games page by using the options in the left menu.



Step 1: If you already have Firefox and Greasemonkey, and you are familiar with how to install Greasemonkey scripts, proceed directly to Step 2. Otherwise, you can get Firefox, Greasemonkey and instructions for installing scripts here:

Firefox Installation Guide

Greasemonkey Install and Uninstall Guide

General Greasemonkey Script Install and Uninstall Guide

Google Chrome users can now use this script - click on viewtopic.php?f=59&t=73696#p2137958 to see how to install.

Step 2: To load the Conquer Club Assault Odds script, CLICK HERE or type http://userscripts.org/scripts/source/45949.user.js into the Firefox Location Bar, then click the "Install" button in the Greasemonkey Installation window which appears.



I have conquer stats. Forgot about that function though. I'd just been using it for single territory v single territory attacks since it doesn't let you prognosticate numbers for fog territories. I'd still be interested in actual math equations.
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