Dice, luck, wtf?

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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby DoomYoshi on Sat Jul 27, 2013 9:22 pm

nàme wrote:That's what I'm referring to when I say that it will balance out. It's not CC or random.org, it's a law of nature.


So mathematical reality and natural reality are one and the same?
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby csk on Sun Jul 28, 2013 6:03 am

nàme wrote:
csk wrote:
nàme wrote:Checking your outcomes overall, you seem to be positive across the board where it matters (excluding the 1v1/2). Compare it to mine where I'm only positive in one of them. Your sample size is simply too small and it should balance out eventually. Apparantly, it's choosing to do so quickly as opposed to over time, which would be more normal and natural.


Yes, I tend to play trench and manual settings. My strategy is also quite conservative. I think that accounts for my good stats. I tend to be attacking when there is a 3:1 ratio at least in my favour.

So, if my stats are quite good does that mean I should expect a run of disastrous dice in order to bring my stats back to the average? Is that how the game makes dice 'random' and everyone's stats level off to the average? If you play the odds eventually the game will just make you lose (even when it's .1% probability!) just to level off you stats?


I took statistics for a while so when I said that it should balance out eventually, that is just how it happens. It's not something that the site controls, but rather, it's called the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers. Basically, over time, your dice stats will approach approximately normal. That's what I'm referring to when I say that it will balance out. It's not CC or random.org, it's a law of nature.

I have 35K dice rolls under my belt, and I am pretty close to normal.
You have 20K, and have very few 1s. Over time, your dice will balance out to give you an average of ~3.50, like mine.
If you look at Gilligan (who rolled 10x more 1s than you have rolled), his is pretty much normal as well.

Strategy has nothing to do with dice rolls; only your outcome on the game and your winning percentage. The game doesn't make dice random on it's own, nature will only bring it back down to average. You are Irish, so you traditionally have pretty good luck, but it's totally random.


I know how probability works. I just don't know how the engine that generates the dice work. But it doesn't matter anyway I guess the dice can be just a little streaky which happened to be exacerbated by my game choice
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