Conquer Club

11 on 11 is the last number at which defender has the advantage (when the 2 territories in question have an equal number) where the attacker wins only 49.4% of the time. At 12 on 12, odds favor the attacker at 50.7%. Attacker has advantage at all numbers greater than this.

Just a random pointless fact.

cheers, that is quite interesting.
and i like the nappin lapin.

well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!

alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!

he said a 50.4% chance to succeed

im still pretty sure the odds of a 35 vs 35 going down to a 3 against 25 are small...........

alex_white101 wrote:im still pretty sure the odds of a 35 vs 35 going down to a 3 against 25 are small...........

it's approximately 0.02% or a 1 in 5000 chance

Better buy a lotto ticket, your luck has to change!

11 on 11 is the last number at which defender has the advantage (when the 2 territories in question have an equal number) where the attacker wins only 49.4% of the time. At 12 on 12, odds favor the attacker at 50.7%. Attacker has advantage at all numbers greater than this.

Just a random pointless fact.

This makes no sense to me. The advantage is always with the attacker as long as he can throw one dice more than the defender.

He can do this at 4v4 but after the first 3v2 roll the attacker will mostly not be able to do it a 2nd time hence he is still an underdog to take the territory.

5v5 that changes. After the first 3v2 roll the attacker will mostly have the extra dice advantage to the end giving him the edge.

GAMBIT BATTLE ODDS CALCULATOR

2v2 territory defeated by attacker 36.26543%
3v3 territory defeated by attacker 47.02511%
4v4 territory defeated by attacker 47.65309%
5v5 territory defeated by attacker 50.62028%

the odds just get better the higher you go as the extra dice advantage has more time to work

11v11 territory defeated by attacker 57.62945%
35v35 territory defeated by attacker 69.33711%
99v99 territory defeated by attacker 82.30450%

so this shows once you get to 5v5 attack is the best form of defence

TipTop wrote:

11 on 11 is the last number at which defender has the advantage (when the 2 territories in question have an equal number) where the attacker wins only 49.4% of the time. At 12 on 12, odds favor the attacker at 50.7%. Attacker has advantage at all numbers greater than this.

Just a random pointless fact.

This makes no sense to me. The advantage is always with the attacker as long as he can throw one dice more than the defender.

He can do this at 4v4 but after the first 3v2 roll the attacker will mostly not be able to do it a 2nd time hence he is still an underdog to take the territory.

5v5 that changes. After the first 3v2 roll the attacker will mostly have the extra dice advantage to the end giving him the edge.

GAMBIT BATTLE ODDS CALCULATOR

2v2 territory defeated by attacker 36.26543%
3v3 territory defeated by attacker 47.02511%
4v4 territory defeated by attacker 47.65309%
5v5 territory defeated by attacker 50.62028%

the odds just get better the higher you go as the extra dice advantage has more time to work

11v11 territory defeated by attacker 57.62945%
35v35 territory defeated by attacker 69.33711%
99v99 territory defeated by attacker 82.30450%

so this shows once you get to 5v5 attack is the best form of defence

You misunderstood either what Cromus said, or what GAMBIT computes:
11 v 11 has to be converted to 10 v. 11 in GAMBIT, because in GAMBIT you enter only the number of armies you attack with, which is 1 less than the number of armies on the attacking territory.

So your 4 v 4 situation actually occurs when you attack 5 v. 4, not when the number of armies on both countries are 4.

thanks cpexp that is where I went wrong.

chessplaya wrote:

alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!

he said a 50.4% chance to succeed

Which is also a 49.6% chance of failure...

So is the glass half FULL, or half EMPTY ???

For me it all depends on what's IN the glass...
If it's an Ice cold margarita, the glass is half FULL
If it's a tepid beer, the glass is definitely half EMPTY

Go now, and apply this lesson to your Risk strategy!

BeakerWMA wrote:Better buy a lotto ticket, your luck has to change!

Nah, they would probably lose that

Robinette wrote:

chessplaya wrote:

alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!

he said a 50.4% chance to succeed

Which is also a 49.6% chance of failure...

So is the glass half FULL, or half EMPTY ???

For me it all depends on what's IN the glass...
If it's an Ice cold margarita, the glass is half FULL
If it's a tepid beer, the glass is definitely half EMPTY

Go now, and apply this lesson to your Risk strategy!

Your tiny writing frustrates me sometimes.

But that doesn't make sense to me because....

If the liquid was tepid beer, i would want to get rid of it, making it seem like there was too much....there for, half FULL

but that's just me...

I think you get 3 dice fighting 3vx (even though you can only move 2 armies forward) so 5v5 would be the breakeven point.

eyeofdeath wrote:

Robinette wrote:

chessplaya wrote:

alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!

he said a 50.4% chance to succeed

Which is also a 49.6% chance of failure...

So is the glass half FULL, or half EMPTY ???

For me it all depends on what's IN the glass...
If it's an Ice cold margarita, the glass is half FULL
If it's a tepid beer, the glass is definitely half EMPTY

Go now, and apply this lesson to your Risk strategy!

Your tiny writing frustrates me sometimes.

But that doesn't make sense to me because....

If the liquid was tepid beer, i would want to get rid of it, making it seem like there was too much....there for, half FULL

but that's just me...

mnnnn... never thought of it that way....
I am pretty quick to dump a tepid beer, so to me it is on it's way to being empty...
While I will slowly sip and savor the perfect half full glass...

Can I get your thoughts on adjusting an air conditioner...
Do you turn it UP to mean RAISE the temperature????
Or do you go UP to go DOWN....

where is that ice cold margarita when I really need it?

Bob Janova wrote:I think you get 3 dice fighting 3vx (even though you can only move 2 armies forward) so 5v5 would be the breakeven point.

what?

1. defender get max of 2 dice
2. it's not a thought, it is a fact that 11 on 11 is the break point. This isn't a debate.

Robinette wrote:
Can I get your thoughts on adjusting an air conditioner...
Do you turn it UP to mean RAISE the temperature????
Or do you go UP to go DOWN....

where is that ice cold margarita when I really need it?

I turn UP the AC for the temperature to go down.

Robinette wrote:So is the glass half FULL, or half EMPTY ???

If half the container has water, I have water.

I've got a question along these lines. It's about dice odds.

So I was playing a game with friends last night who aren't the best of players.

I lost THREE battles where I was attacked by someone that had less troops than I had defending the territory.

1. The first one was just asinine. The guy attacked me in a 3v7 situation and WON without losing a single troop. He took that territory and then attacked with his 2 troops and broke my bonus on a territory behind it.

2. The other notable one was in a situation where I had 25 troops defending a territory and a guy attacked me with 18 troops. He won with 6 troops left over.

Did I just have the luck of the Jews here or are the odds really THAT much in favor of the attacker? My friends tried telling me that their attacking armies had the favorable odds when attacking in these situations. I actually called my girlfriend to make sure I wasn't losing my mind.

rsuttles58 wrote:I've got a question along these lines. It's about dice odds.

So I was playing a game with friends last night who aren't the best of players.

I lost THREE battles where I was attacked by someone that had less troops than I had defending the territory.

1. The first one was just asinine. The guy attacked me in a 3v7 situation and WON without losing a single troop. He took that territory and then attacked with his 2 troops and broke my bonus on a territory behind it.

2. The other notable one was in a situation where I had 25 troops defending a territory and a guy attacked me with 18 troops. He won with 6 troops left over.

Did I just have the luck of the Jews here or are the odds really THAT much in favor of the attacker? My friends tried telling me that their attacking armies had the favorable odds when attacking in these situations. I actually called my girlfriend to make sure I wasn't losing my mind.

the 3 to 7 attack is very rare, but it does occasionally happen, the 18 to 24 is a very wise attack to make if you have nothing to lose....id much rather make the attack than let the 24 butcher my 18...

alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!

You should have never let your armies get that low.

Thank you. Excellent bit of data.

if you are good at figuring out odds, i would like a breakdown of the odds when there is the same amount of armie on each territory. include the extra dice for the attatcker and the tie(WIN) for the defender. i would like to see a breakdown from 1vs 1 TO 15 vs 15 instead of just stating the odds. i want to know how you come up with that.

calkid wrote:if you are good at figuring out odds, i would like a breakdown of the odds when there is the same amount of armie on each territory. include the extra dice for the attatcker and the tie(WIN) for the defender. i would like to see a breakdown from 1vs 1 TO 15 vs 15 instead of just stating the odds. i want to know how you come up with that.

Just use this http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

Robinette wrote:

chessplaya wrote:

alex_white101 wrote:well then, how come i attacked a 35 on 35 and ended 3 vs 25?!?!?!

he said a 50.4% chance to succeed

Which is also a 49.6% chance of failure...



So is the glass half FULL, or half EMPTY ???

For me it all depends on what's IN the glass...
If it's an Ice cold margarita, the glass is half FULL
If it's a tepid beer, the glass is definitely half EMPTY

Go now, and apply this lesson to your Risk strategy!

Well if he says the situation ended with 3 vs. 25, technically he didn't fail. He still has a possibility of winning the territory. It's all about believing =)