Ok, I wish to analyse how the suspect pool changes depending on certain variables.
The original pool (4 out of 12):
gregwolf (12) ~ Saf, jonty, soundman, violet, aage, JG, Nag, DRoZ, jak, ??? (Jak or Victor), Strike, Vodean
Post-flips, we have nagerous/Lovo as town, JG as town, Jak as town and Vodean as mafia.
That leaves the new pool (3 out of
: Saf, Jonty, Soundman, Violet, Aage, Droz, ??? (Jak or Victor), Strike
Scenario 1 - Safari and Strike are to be trusted: Safari cleared Violet and the ??? vote that could have been Victor's. Since we are trusting both Saf and Strike for their actions, the remaining pool is Jonty, Aage, Droz and Soundman (3 out of 4).
Scenario 2 - Only Safari is to be trusted while Strike lied. This is tricky, but it would almost certainly lead us to believe Soundman is mafia while Strike may or may not be a busdriver. By doing what Strike did, he managed to protect a stronger mafia power role while also getting town cred for "correctly" redirecting us for Rishaed. In this scenario, Strike may or may not be a busdriver and he may or may not have tampered with previous Safari investigations.
I'm not going to assume we are in a scenario 2, but if Soundman ends up flipping mafia we need to reevaluate Strike's acquired town cred from directing us away from Sound and into Rishaed.
Scenario 3 - Strike can be trusted while Saf can't. Unlikely, since Saf has a strong claim (although not getting an action in time does raise suspicions). In this case, we need to send Violet and ??? back to the pool, which makes us lose al ot of accuracy.
Scenario 4 - Strike and Saf both lied. Also tricky and unlikely. I'm not going to waste time into that now.
I decided to write these scenarios in order to keep everyone's minds broad. I still believe in scenario 1 (lynch Droz, Aage, Jonty and Soundman until we catch 3 mafia), but if there are 2 town flips among those 4 players we should start being more skeptical (especially if Soundman is not one of the town flips).