Conquer Club

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Reading back on Doomyoshi's posts, I come to the following conclusion...Kanin Usagi and Pancakemix are most likely mafia. Why? Doom never once mentions either of them in his posts. I think he mentions everyone else, except for those two. I'm willing to start with one of them. Although, let's be honest, we have quite a few sandbaggers in this game, making it tough to be sure.

For review, here is the vote count...

DoomYoshi (6) - spieser; Nebuchadnezar; Doom Yoshi; rishaed; Kanin Usagi; Iron Butterfly;

So Kanin was on the wagon, pancake was off. So...who to vote...

Vote pancakemix I think his posts seem off. Also, he forced Rishaed's claim on D1 for crap reasons. Then when Edoc tore him up, he quickly backed off. Also, his statement that he would have hammered Doom seems like he's just trying to fit in. I'm all for Pancake on this one.

Alright this looks like the best thing we have right now. So let's hurry up and see where it takes us. Here is some stuff to back it up with.

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Given the time I can't really hold much against pancakemix from his first post as it is. However I have a bit of a problem with the second one. He kind of comes off like he is trying to retroactively insert of vote into his first post. In effect this gives off a bit of a vibe that he is trying to absolve himself of the responsibility of putting rishaed in a position where he has to claim . "Oh my vote was actually cast back there, it's Hank that pushed the count up to L-2 not me." Between that and him not really additions the changes in rishaed's defense that occured between his two posts leaves this vote with a bad taste in hindsight.

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At the end he subtly extends his own defense to cover DoomYoshi as well.

Another note, after the above post pancakemix never provides any input regarding what to do with the Day 1 lynch. He did make a post between then and the end of the Day, but it didn't provide any comment or direction relating to anything of value. He just sat back and watcher the Day coast into what ended up being a no lynch. (Now, if he wanted a no lynch result at that point it would be fine, but he would have needed to actually say so rather than do nothing.) That certainly smells like laying low to me.

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He started off Day 2 by making this slightly curious post. I am still waiting for him to respond why he drew the the conclusion that scum didn't try to kill the doctor based off of the info available at the time.

After that he didn't post for a couple of days, by the time he posted again the lynch had been reached. Now, that itself isn't scummy, as is it only took a few days to get to that point and pancakemix has chronically low activity in general, but it does leave us with very little to work with. When he did post after the lynch was reached he ended up not really saying anything of value, although this can be partially excused by the lynch having been reached leaving fewer things to discuss, it still leaves us in a situation where pancakemix didn't contribute anything useful at all Day 2.

Vote Pancakemix

Hes on my list of suspicious persons, and its better than an inactive case against gregwolf. unvote vote PCM

Yeah, inactive cases don't really hold much water at day 3 by me. Not sold yet on PCM. I'll sort out my thoughts on that by tomorrow night, two exams tomorrow and I can't devote the time to an analysis tonight.

If it helps make me seem less scummy to people, I will say that Nebuchadnezzar did not visit anyone last night. Also, just because Doom did not specifically mention myself does not in itself mean I am scum. He just didn't see me as a good target to focus attention on.

In fact:

Kanin Usagi wrote: I would like Jonty to tell us whether or not Battle of the Bulge should have been on the list and he forgot to put it on there. If it was not supposed to be on the list, then I would like a lynch of Doom for lying (as he shouldn't have that role then.)

I was in favor of lynching Doom for his mistake, and pretty vocal about it too.

Wait, what??? No one has voted, you and yet you are taking preliminary measures for a defense and partially claiming???
Suspicious. . . IF Neb didn't visit anyone last night, don't softclaim a PR. Its painting a bullseye on your back, unless you don't fear the mafia. And if what you say is true it proves nothing, neither that Neb is town/ or that Neb is scum. There are many other ways to seem less scummy without putting revealing information out there.
unvote vote Kanin for doing something that he knows better than to do. (its not his 1st game here by a long shot, and he can't play the I'm a noob card IMO). As much as it might help if what you are saying is true about yourself, but its not worth the risk of increasing your chances of being NK'd.

Kanin Usagi wrote:

Kanin Usagi wrote: I would like Jonty to tell us whether or not Battle of the Bulge should have been on the list and he forgot to put it on there. If it was not supposed to be on the list, then I would like a lynch of Doom for lying (as he shouldn't have that role then.)

I was in favor of lynching Doom for his mistake, and pretty vocal about it too.

This was AFTER Doom had screwed up so I don't think it earns you any town cred.

Besides, back in day 1 you were protecting Doom:

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This post makes it seem like you are A) happy that the scene wouldn't show a block and B) that you would like a PR to out itself:

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Was this you trying to bus yourself and Doom after his fate was sealed? Theres only one way you could be 100% sure of somebody;s alignment:

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vote kanin

Well, crap...if Kanin didn't just jump up the scum-meter...

Why would you post this? It's so confusing...are you trying to protect Pancakemix? Is he a mafia roleblocker, so Kanin wants to protect him? Well done, Kanin...you just confused the hell out of us!

Well, we now have two good cases here. I'm apt to stay on pancakemix, but either way, these two have to go...

As far as laying low goes, I've made a post in the vacation thread, and this has been an ongoing situation since at least mid-January. You can regard my other games as evidence as well. I will not further defend my absence here.

On my D1 vote: If you read my first post, it kind of makes no sense NOT to vote him based on my argument, hm? We call that hypocritical where I come from. Being so absent-minded as I was, I put myself in a bit of a Catch-22. It was either I voted him, put him at -2 and the worst that could happen was info, or I could not vote him and get called for hypocrisy later (supporting but not having enough gumption to put a vote down). I chose the one that I thought was most beneficial to town.

On yoshi: I thought he was town up until he was exposed, tbh. It's not unusual for him to play an odd gambit as a VT (see H.P. Lovecraft), so I thought I knew what he was doing.

As for the hank post, I mostly based that on him not dying and stuff. Y'know, being alive more often than not suggests mafia didn't go there.

Vote Count
pancakemix (2) - Nebuchadnezar; spieser;
Kanin Usagi (2) - rishaed; thechuck51

Deadline is Firday 22 February @ 1600 GMT. With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. If the vote count were to remain the same until deadline a 24 hour run-off period will be enforced.

okay we got two suspects here we need to decide who to press first, since it seems like kanin is trying to draw suspicion to himself from pancake, im going to vote pancakemix

I'll claim if asked, but that's terribly shoddy reasoning, greg.

pancakemix wrote:As far as laying low goes, I've made a post in the vacation thread, and this has been an ongoing situation since at least mid-January. You can regard my other games as evidence as well. I will not further defend my absence here.

My concern about you laying low isn't primarily directed at you post count. The problem is that, for example, when you posted in the later stage of Day 1 you avoiding making any mention of where you stand on anything and just let the Day coast by.

spiesr wrote:

pancakemix wrote:As far as laying low goes, I've made a post in the vacation thread, and this has been an ongoing situation since at least mid-January. You can regard my other games as evidence as well. I will not further defend my absence here.

My concern about you laying low isn't primarily directed at you post count. The problem is that, for example, when you posted in the later stage of Day 1 you avoiding making any mention of where you stand on anything and just let the Day coast by.

1. You've presupposed that I've avoided anything, which I find odd.

2. You've presupposed that I was lax in my contributions, when I've already stated that that isn't true. I dislike that. Just because I'm on here doesn't mean I have time to post a wall of text, let alone post anything at all.

3. You do me a disservice by giving a lack of real context. And since you won't, I will. The quote. So what is going on here? I'm calling Hank out for apparent inattentiveness. If he had just read the page instead of searching for his name in red, he'd have known that vote on him had come and passed. It's also says that I did read the page, because why else would I say anything If I hadn't?

As to why the post doesn't say more, A. See point 2 and B. What really would you want me to say? Redundancies tend to be against my policy, and all who were paying attention were resigned to a NL at that point. If I HAD voted NL, you'd still accuse me of coasting, just for trying to look like I'm a helper.

Have I played terribly this game? Yes. Does that mean I'm scum? No. But I have the feeling you've already hung me in your head.

Pancake has done nothing to dissuade me from voting for him. Funny how he can suddenly post quite a bit now that the pressure is on...

Kanin Usagi wrote:If it helps make me seem less scummy to people, I will say that Nebuchadnezzar did not visit anyone last night. Also, just because Doom did not specifically mention myself does not in itself mean I am scum. He just didn't see me as a good target to focus attention on.

In fact:

Kanin Usagi wrote: I would like Jonty to tell us whether or not Battle of the Bulge should have been on the list and he forgot to put it on there. If it was not supposed to be on the list, then I would like a lynch of Doom for lying (as he shouldn't have that role then.)

I was in favor of lynching Doom for his mistake, and pretty vocal about it too.

I want more info from Kanin on this part of his statement. Either A. he's softclaiming tracker (quite possible, but i don't think i'd trust him with the amount of VT's that have shown up so far) B. He's scum protecting someone. C. He slipped up.
Now I would be more than thankful if we could band together, and get a claim from someone who's already softclaimed.
In other news though, Neb's recent posts are really scummy.
You know the parts about digging for information (After I thought about it, it doesn't help by saying who i protected when im a Bodyguard because without a doc if I protect the person getting NK'd I'll die >.>), saying that PCM and Kanin have to go, and his recent posts. If anyone would reread what he wrote, and put their thoughts down on it it'd be greatly appreciated.

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Pancake has done nothing to dissuade me from voting for him. Funny how he can suddenly post quite a bit now that the pressure is on...

I do have a vested interest in not getting lynched, thank you kindly, and you probably would too if you knew what I was. Either way, I do read every day but that doesn't mean post. It's not my way, it never has been. I've already acknowledged my play has been sub-par, but I don't know what more you want. Again, you've hung me in your mind, and there's no persuading you otherwise.

You didn't say much about me before, but now that I look at, your vote's based pretty much on shoddy interpretation:

Reading back on Doomyoshi's posts, I come to the following conclusion...Kanin Usagi and Pancakemix are most likely mafia. Why? Doom never once mentions either of them in his posts. I think he mentions everyone else, except for those two.

Because if Doom mentions you it puts a voodoo curse on you. You don't want to get voodoo cursed!

I think his posts seem off.

This means exactly nothing

Also, he forced Rishaed's claim on D1 for crap reasons.

And stated as much. I'm more willing to do risky things on Day 1 to promote discussion

Then when Edoc tore him up, he quickly backed off.

False. I defended my position to edoc. I backed off because he claimed. Good of you to totally misconstrue it though.

Also, his statement that he would have hammered Doom seems like he's just trying to fit in.

So I want to be one of the cool kids? You're really reaching here...

So voodoo, edoc being a scary monster, and peer pressure are why I'm facing the gallows right now. Good stuff.

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Well, crap...if Kanin didn't just jump up the scum-meter...

Why would you post this? It's so confusing...are you trying to protect Pancakemix? Is he a mafia roleblocker, so Kanin wants to protect him? Well done, Kanin...you just confused the hell out of us!

Well, we now have two good cases here. I'm apt to stay on pancakemix, but either way, these two have to go...

I'm not trying to protect pancake, per say, but I just didnt find him scummy as I re-read his posts.

And the more he says the less scummy I find him >.>. Now who do we want to claim today???

thechuck51 wrote:

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Well, crap...if Kanin didn't just jump up the scum-meter...

Why would you post this? It's so confusing...are you trying to protect Pancakemix? Is he a mafia roleblocker, so Kanin wants to protect him? Well done, Kanin...you just confused the hell out of us!

Well, we now have two good cases here. I'm apt to stay on pancakemix, but either way, these two have to go...

I'm not trying to protect pancake, per say, but I just didnt find him scummy as I re-read his posts.

Why are you responding to a post directed at Kanin?

Because he voted PCM >.>
aww wth, unvote vote Neb
Between him and Kanin, I'm not sure which one hit the scummy radar more today, but none of you are helping me with Kanin, and I'm inclined to believe that PCM is town. I have found Neb to be extremely scummy today, let me go and get some quotes. . .

Nebuchadnezer wrote:

rishaed wrote:GG IB I'll leave my comments for afterwards.
Any of our cases from D1 are dried up. We need to look at yesterday to see what sticks out. Imma going to do a readthrough to see what sticks out.

Well, let's start with known facts...who did you protect last night?

This after reading it a second time sticks out like a sore thumb, I'm a bodyguard for pities sake! Whoever I protected is irrelevant without a doc in game. D2 it was relevant b/c of roleblock/doc/protection save when hank Doc'd me. Now, not so much, because you know if i guessed right i'd be dead right now.

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Vote pancakemix I think his posts seem off. Also, he forced Rishaed's claim on D1 for crap reasons. Then when Edoc tore him up, he quickly backed off. Also, his statement that he would have hammered Doom seems like he's just trying to fit in. I'm all for Pancake on this one.

I admit that he forced my hand on crap reasons, however his statement of being a hypocrite if he didn't makes sense, and he backed off after I claimed, with a jab a edoc while he was at it.

spiesr wrote:

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Well, crap...there is the randomness of it all...so do we really have a claimed doc and a body guard on day one? Were we that lucky that we happen to pressure two protective roles? I'm willing to test one of the claims. Given that Hank seemed to be the scummier of the two, I'm willing to go with him. If people really want to vote no lynch, let me know, and I'll take my vote off.[/b]

If the day were a bit longer we could have a better discussion...but...alas, we picked our noses for last few weeks putting off any decisions until deadline time. Fine. On the off chance Hank could be a doc...[color=#FF0000]unvote

Wait, your previous post sounded very certain on the matter.

Nebuchadnezer wrote: vote Hank, he's lying.

What exactly happened that you were confident enough to declare that he was lying and now you aren't sure? You can't have made that earlier post based solely on there being a claimed bodyguard and doctor, can you? Is there something else?

Here he's being wishy-washy, in a lets go with the crowd voting mentality. And something else caught my eye here, lucky? outing two protective roles right off the bat isn't fortunate, at most 1 is ok because the scum don't know if he'll be targeted by another protective,watcher/busdriver.

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Ya, I kinda painted a big target on myself, didn't I? I guess our doc protected me then? I know there's a myriad of other options, but I'll stick with the simplest one for now.

The real question is...did anyone get any information last night? Given that we have at least 2 protective roles, do we want them to come out with any information?

I could be miscontruing here, but why would this be the simplest option? Its a nice way to insert town cred without risk, and the people with the biggest targets on their backs would have been me and Hank.
IB had called him out for "flipping a coin" on whether or not to vote doom or someone else, and then IB gets NK'd. (My fault probably for painting a bullseye on his back). And his response makes him look like a PRish role, so its logical that scum would go after him.
The short story is that Nebs recent posts have been scummy for me this is just my case behind it

Seriously?

rishaed wrote:Because he voted PCM >.>
aww wth, unvote vote Neb
Between him and Kanin, I'm not sure which one hit the scummy radar more today, but none of you are helping me with Kanin, and I'm inclined to believe that PCM is town. I have found Neb to be extremely scummy today, let me go and get some quotes. . .

Nebuchadnezer wrote:

rishaed wrote:GG IB I'll leave my comments for afterwards.
Any of our cases from D1 are dried up. We need to look at yesterday to see what sticks out. Imma going to do a readthrough to see what sticks out.

Well, let's start with known facts...who did you protect last night?

This after reading it a second time sticks out like a sore thumb, I'm a bodyguard for pities sake! Whoever I protected is irrelevant without a doc in game. D2 it was relevant b/c of roleblock/doc/protection save when hank Doc'd me. Now, not so much, because you know if i guessed right i'd be dead right now.

Why does it matter? Because someone might have tracked you...and if you don't give the right answer...Boom! You're hung. Why wouldn't you give the information for pities sake?

rishaed wrote:

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Vote pancakemix I think his posts seem off. Also, he forced Rishaed's claim on D1 for crap reasons. Then when Edoc tore him up, he quickly backed off. Also, his statement that he would have hammered Doom seems like he's just trying to fit in. I'm all for Pancake on this one.

I admit that he forced my hand on crap reasons, however his statement of being a hypocrite if he didn't makes sense, and he backed off after I claimed, with a jab a edoc while he was at it.

spiesr wrote:

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Well, crap...there is the randomness of it all...so do we really have a claimed doc and a body guard on day one? Were we that lucky that we happen to pressure two protective roles? I'm willing to test one of the claims. Given that Hank seemed to be the scummier of the two, I'm willing to go with him. If people really want to vote no lynch, let me know, and I'll take my vote off.[/b]

If the day were a bit longer we could have a better discussion...but...alas, we picked our noses for last few weeks putting off any decisions until deadline time. Fine. On the off chance Hank could be a doc...[color=#FF0000]unvote

Wait, your previous post sounded very certain on the matter.

Nebuchadnezer wrote: vote Hank, he's lying.

What exactly happened that you were confident enough to declare that he was lying and now you aren't sure? You can't have made that earlier post based solely on there being a claimed bodyguard and doctor, can you? Is there something else?

Here he's being wishy-washy, in a lets go with the crowd voting mentality. And something else caught my eye here, lucky? outing two protective roles right off the bat isn't fortunate, at most 1 is ok because the scum don't know if he'll be targeted by another protective,watcher/busdriver.

You're right. Lucky was not the correct word...more like unlucky.

rishaed wrote:

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Ya, I kinda painted a big target on myself, didn't I? I guess our doc protected me then? I know there's a myriad of other options, but I'll stick with the simplest one for now.

The real question is...did anyone get any information last night? Given that we have at least 2 protective roles, do we want them to come out with any information?

I could be miscontruing here, but why would this be the simplest option? Its a nice way to insert town cred without risk, and the people with the biggest targets on their backs would have been me and Hank.
IB had called him out for "flipping a coin" on whether or not to vote doom or someone else, and then IB gets NK'd. (My fault probably for painting a bullseye on his back). And his response makes him look like a PRish role, so its logical that scum would go after him.
The short story is that Nebs recent posts have been scummy for me this is just my case behind it

Seriously...I get Doom hung (well, he did do it himself, actually) and somehow you're trying to blame Iron's death on me? I think you're taking my posts out of context. Go back and read them in the context I wrote them. It will make more sense.

No I'm not trying to blame IB's death on you. Look at the parentheses for pities sake. I give the information out willingly, but it lets Mafia know who I might try to protect on future nights. . . which IMHO can only be bad. I don't think we have a RB'er b/c he would have come out with his information and boom! we have a lynch. Because who would believe that we got lucky enough that the doc protected me on the night that I either protected the NK/ or was going to get NK'd myself? It'd be Occams Razor right, go with the simplest explanation. And I know you voted doom b4 he made his mistake, but depending on what was going on and the fact that he was our best lead, It doesn't make you town/scum, and after he made his mistake bussing him would be the logical thing to do right?
You still haven't explained why you've been so willing to BW on what the crowd is going for all the time.
Plus in terms of wanting answers can we get a prod on Kanin?

rishaed wrote:No I'm not trying to blame IB's death on you. Look at the parentheses for pities sake. I give the information out willingly, but it lets Mafia know who I might try to protect on future nights. . . which IMHO can only be bad. I don't think we have a RB'er b/c he would have come out with his information and boom! we have a lynch. Because who would believe that we got lucky enough that the doc protected me on the night that I either protected the NK/ or was going to get NK'd myself? It'd be Occams Razor right, go with the simplest explanation. And I know you voted doom b4 he made his mistake, but depending on what was going on and the fact that he was our best lead, It doesn't make you town/scum, and after he made his mistake bussing him would be the logical thing to do right?
You still haven't explained why you've been so willing to BW on what the crowd is going for all the time.
Plus in terms of wanting answers can we get a prod on Kanin?

First off...who you protect one night has no bearing on who you protect the next night. And even if it does, your job as bodyguard is to die protecting someone. That IS the whole point of your role! Poor WIFOM arguement, rishaed.

Secondly, about the roleblocker...is it not possible to have a mafia roleblocker? I'm pretty sure he's not coming out with his night actions.

Thirdly, I'm not sure I understand the term "bussing" in your sentence. Would you consider it "bussing" when I was voting him early? I guess I don't get your logic here. Wouldn't your logic apply to everyone who voted Doom then? Why would it make me any more suspicious that anyone else on the vote? Please explain.

Finally, who did I bandwagon on "all of the time"?

1. I went against the grain on voting for the doctor after he claimed. I did pull off of him on the chance that he was in fact a doctor...if that's bandwagoning...you have an odd definition.
2. I was on Doom early...not a bandwagoner.
3. I just made the first case on pancakemix today...how is that a bandwagon?

So, please don't use the generalization that I am "willing to BW on what the crowd is going for all the time", when that's not even close to the truth.

Shoddy, shoddy arguements...

Neb

Nebuchadnezer wrote:First off...who you protect one night has no bearing on who you protect the next night. And even if it does, your job as bodyguard is to die protecting someone. That IS the whole point of your role! Poor WIFOM arguement, rishaed.

It's ultimately a WIFOM situation, but it stands to reason that, unless something changes during a Day, rishaed would be more likely to protect the person he did last night again than he would any other individual. If the mafia think they know who rishaed will be protecting it seems like that would lead to target somebody else to increase their chances of killing an important role. So, it's not that rishaed is afraid the scum will try to kill him if they can guess where he is going, but that they won't.

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Secondly, about the roleblocker...is it not possible to have a mafia roleblocker? I'm pretty sure he's not coming out with his night actions.

I believe what rishaed was saying is that he thinks that there isn't a Town Roleblocker as if there was said person could have announced who they blocked back on Day 2 under the assumption that they had stopped the kill. Since nobody said anything about he concludes that the kill was prevented by the Doctor saving him. I am not sure what point he is trying to make with this tough.

Nebuchadnezer wrote:Thirdly, I'm not sure I understand the term "bussing" in your sentence. Would you consider it "bussing" when I was voting him early? I guess I don't get your logic here. Wouldn't your logic apply to everyone who voted Doom then? Why would it make me any more suspicious that anyone else on the vote? Please explain.

Essentially the point here is that your actions with respect to DoomYoshi don't necessarily make you any less likely to be scum as well. They don't really make you more likely, just not less.

Nebuchadnezer wrote:2. I was on Doom early...not a bandwagoner.

You were the third vote on DoomYoshi on Day 2. The second vote was a bandwagon vote, so I don't see why the third couldn't be considered one as well. It's like you were the one to revive that case or anything. At that point in time things were moving in that direction and nowhere else, to the extent that DoomYoshi ended up claiming before a fourth vote was cast.

Fair enough. Points taken.