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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby aage on Tue Apr 09, 2013 6:19 pm

thechuck51 wrote:
aage wrote:How could we interpret the scene wrong, other than Falko targeting himself?

Would he have targeted himself?


I don't know but if we don't have any real leads I think rish is our best option for a lynch.

I'm not sure. If you are going to lie about who you targeted, it seems odd to say you targeted the same person Falk killed. I don't think rishaed would try to mindfuck us like that. If anything, it may even slightly clear him (at least, in my opinion).
Besides, why are you so desperate for Town's approval? We have 72 hours. If you think we should lynch rishaed, I suggest you cast a vote.

Tails, you're afwully quiet.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby thechuck51 on Tue Apr 09, 2013 6:27 pm

My point was that if no better case can be made he is our best option. I agree that he is most likely town but if it comes down to a random lynch or lynching a player that targeted somebody that was killed I will choose the latter.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby safariguy5 on Tue Apr 09, 2013 7:01 pm

I targeted gregwolf.

The question here is whether we want to pursue a lynch today. With only two RL days left, I suppose we could target rishaed, but given we got one of the SKers, I worry that excessive lynching could give the remaining SKer an advantage. Especially since I don't believe rishaed is the other SKer and the evidence is very circumstantial at best.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby rishaed on Tue Apr 09, 2013 8:15 pm

jonty125 wrote:
aage wrote:
thechuck51 wrote:i targeted pancakemix

rishaed wrote:I targeted nendreel last night.


Is there any chance that we are interpreting the scene wrong and that rish could have killed nendreel?

How could we interpret the scene wrong, other than Falko targeting himself?

Would he have targeted himself?


I doubt it, a stupid risk to take, with no gain.

I agree that with not knowing if you are an SK or not, targeting yourself on N1 would be an incredibly stupid thing to do. :roll: That being said unless we have a vig role (which i severely doubt, considering that it would act similar to an SK seeing as we have to target someone every night) we can assume Falko targeted Nendreel. Which is why I was thus forthcoming with who I targeted. I will FOS Tails however I think that lynching randomly may work against us seeing as we have no guarantees that we have PR's who don't know themselves that they are a PR. We might have a hidden Doc/BP/bodyguard but I doubt that / would give something along the lines of a cop (which after N1 would know he was a cop).

That being said I will not vote atm unless a convincing argument for voting shows up...
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Tue Apr 09, 2013 9:24 pm

Yo, I'm here. I, too, aimed for gregwolf. So, are we working on 2 SKs? It seems that Falko likely aimed for Nendreel and similarly got the boot from the other SK. Makes the most sense.

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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby anamainiacks on Wed Apr 10, 2013 1:20 am

Alright, I compiled the list of people that each player claims to have targeted. IB has yet to mention his target (or if I missed it, I'm sorry).

show: Night 1


rishaed wrote:That being said unless we have a vig role (which i severely doubt, considering that it would act similar to an SK seeing as we have to target someone every night) we can assume Falko targeted Nendreel. Which is why I was thus forthcoming with who I targeted.

Or, you thought that through, and decided that faking a target on Nendreel would make for a great way to clear yourself early in the game (as compared to giving a random name which doesn't add any meaning), when you really targeted Falko. Then again, this is entirely WIFOM so I'm not going to vote just yet, but it is something to consider.

rishaed wrote:That being said I will not vote atm unless a convincing argument for voting shows up...

Well, with everybody except the SK himself not knowing anything at all, so the likelihood of there being a convincing argument at all is rather slim... :?
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby jonty125 on Wed Apr 10, 2013 2:23 am

I haven't got much to add, other than, we can't keep no lynching forever, as this will guarantee an SK win. I don't think, that we have any hidden power roles, so it is a question of when do we start taking a chance on a lynch, LYLO? We need a strategy, and I felt now would be a good time to bring my thoughts to the table.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby aage on Wed Apr 10, 2013 4:07 am

Why should we not lynch?

There are 11 players alive. If two people die every round, town has the advantage when it comes to numbers. Letting the serial killer do all the killing would only ever set us back since he has 0% chance to hit scum. Town has ~9% chance to lynch scum today, ~11% tomorrow, ~14% the day after that... any no-lynch now will decrease the total percentage.

FoS all the people who are afraid of lynching. Seriously, you're either scum or stupid.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby jonty125 on Wed Apr 10, 2013 5:52 am

aage wrote:Why should we not lynch?

There are 11 players alive. If two people die every round, town has the advantage when it comes to numbers. Letting the serial killer do all the killing would only ever set us back since he has 0% chance to hit scum. Town has ~9% chance to lynch scum today, ~11% tomorrow, ~14% the day after that... any no-lynch now will decrease the total percentage.

FoS all the people who are afraid of lynching. Seriously, you're either scum or stupid.


Well with 1 SK, I think only one will die every night. Or when you mean every round, do you mean day-night cycle. But other than that I totally agree.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby Iron Butterfly on Wed Apr 10, 2013 6:13 am

I targeted sheep night 1.

I agree we need to lynch someone as a no lynch would just buy the sk more time to kill.

At this point luck is better then not taking an action.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby pancakemix on Wed Apr 10, 2013 2:46 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:I targeted sheep night 1.

I agree we need to lynch someone as a no lynch would just buy the sk more time to kill.

At this point luck is better then not taking an action.


Lynch is forced unless we vote NL, so atm it'd be Tails. Since he was the only thing close to a lead but has since posted, I'm kind of at a loss. I'd agree that rolling the dice on anyone is a better than nothing.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby / on Wed Apr 10, 2013 4:32 pm

TA1LGUNN3R: 1 vote: aage

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch, however lynches are forced if there are votes on the table.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Wed Apr 10, 2013 4:59 pm

pancakemix wrote:
Iron Butterfly wrote:I targeted sheep night 1.

I agree we need to lynch someone as a no lynch would just buy the sk more time to kill.

At this point luck is better then not taking an action.


Lynch is forced unless we vote NL, so atm it'd be Tails. Since he was the only thing close to a lead but has since posted, I'm kind of at a loss. I'd agree that rolling the dice on anyone is a better than nothing.


Understandable. Everything from D1 is moot because there are no ulterior motives to try to discern. Everything must be read from D2 onward when people begin to suspect themselves of being SKs.

My top choices would be those who claimed they targeted Nendreel or sheep, i.e. gregwolf and rishaed, merely for wifom reasons, and IB because he hasn't been forthcoming with who he targeted.

-Tails
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby Iron Butterfly on Wed Apr 10, 2013 5:39 pm

TA1LGUNN3R wrote:
pancakemix wrote:
Iron Butterfly wrote:I targeted sheep night 1.

I agree we need to lynch someone as a no lynch would just buy the sk more time to kill.

At this point luck is better then not taking an action.


Lynch is forced unless we vote NL, so atm it'd be Tails. Since he was the only thing close to a lead but has since posted, I'm kind of at a loss. I'd agree that rolling the dice on anyone is a better than nothing.


Understandable. Everything from D1 is moot because there are no ulterior motives to try to discern. Everything must be read from D2 onward when people begin to suspect themselves of being SKs.

My top choices would be those who claimed they targeted Nendreel or sheep, i.e. gregwolf and rishaed, merely for wifom reasons, and IB because he hasn't been forthcoming with who he targeted.

-Tails


I already stated I targeted Sheep. Skim much? ;)
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby rishaed on Wed Apr 10, 2013 6:23 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:
TA1LGUNN3R wrote:
pancakemix wrote:
Iron Butterfly wrote:I targeted sheep night 1.

I agree we need to lynch someone as a no lynch would just buy the sk more time to kill.

At this point luck is better then not taking an action.


Lynch is forced unless we vote NL, so atm it'd be Tails. Since he was the only thing close to a lead but has since posted, I'm kind of at a loss. I'd agree that rolling the dice on anyone is a better than nothing.


Understandable. Everything from D1 is moot because there are no ulterior motives to try to discern. Everything must be read from D2 onward when people begin to suspect themselves of being SKs.

My top choices would be those who claimed they targeted Nendreel or sheep, i.e. gregwolf and rishaed, merely for wifom reasons, and IB because he hasn't been forthcoming with who he targeted.

-Tails


I already stated I targeted Sheep. Skim much? ;)

Apparently... Its in the first quote of his, kinda hard to miss when its staring you in the face of something you just quoted.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Wed Apr 10, 2013 8:43 pm

haha. nice. I was looking at the list compiled by anamaniacks.

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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby thechuck51 on Wed Apr 10, 2013 8:47 pm

vote rish

I don't see any better option. We have to weigh the odds that he is the last SK vs odds of us guessing right out of the other 10.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby anamainiacks on Wed Apr 10, 2013 9:51 pm

TA1LGUNN3R wrote:haha. nice. I was looking at the list compiled by anamaniacks.

-Tails

Haha yea, he posted his target after I posted the list.

I agree that out of those remaining, rishaed's case is marginally the strongest. If we want to look at people who weren't keen on lynching, safariguy does come up being questionable:
safariguy5 wrote:The question here is whether we want to pursue a lynch today. With only two RL days left, I suppose we could target rishaed, but given we got one of the SKers, I worry that excessive lynching could give the remaining SKer an advantage.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby rishaed on Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:40 pm

thechuck51 wrote:My point was that if no better case can be made he is our best option. I agree that he is most likely town but if it comes down to a random lynch or lynching a player that targeted somebody that was killed I will choose the latter.

I don't understand why you would think this.... could you please elaborate.

And as much as I don't mind taking one for town I will vote Tails for minor skimming, and the fact that I still want to play for a bit yet. :mrgreen:
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby gregwolf121 on Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:45 pm

well personally im inclined to to think that rishaed isn't the sk

what i find suspicious is chuck, all hes posted today is that we should lynch rishaed, while its a logical arguement he seems just a bit too fixated on it. so vote chuck.

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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby jonty125 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:32 am

TA1LGUNN3R wrote:My top choices would be those who claimed they targeted Nendreel or sheep, i.e. gregwolf and rishaed, merely for wifom reasons, and IB because he hasn't been forthcoming with who he targeted.

-Tails


Sheep died by modkill, with 2 other deaths, that confirms, he wasn't an SK target. So unvote, vote TA1LGUNN3R for faulty logic and for the skimming over who IB targeted.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby aage on Thu Apr 11, 2013 3:21 am

anamainiacks wrote:If we want to look at people who weren't keen on lynching, safariguy does come up being questionable:
safariguy5 wrote:The question here is whether we want to pursue a lynch today. With only two RL days left, I suppose we could target rishaed, but given we got one of the SKers, I worry that excessive lynching could give the remaining SKer an advantage.

I agree, but since we have a timetable you would have to swing momentum into that case within 24 hours. I'm not very keen on lynching Saf without giving him time to defend.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Thu Apr 11, 2013 4:04 am

jonty125 wrote:
TA1LGUNN3R wrote:My top choices would be those who claimed they targeted Nendreel or sheep, i.e. gregwolf and rishaed, merely for wifom reasons, and IB because he hasn't been forthcoming with who he targeted.

-Tails


Sheep died by modkill, with 2 other deaths, that confirms, he wasn't an SK target. So unvote, vote TA1LGUNN3R for faulty logic and for the skimming over who IB targeted.


How unimaginative of you. I think anamaniacks summed it up pretty nicely:

anamaniacks wrote:Or, you thought that through, and decided that faking a target on Nendreel would make for a great way to clear yourself early in the game (as compared to giving a random name which doesn't add any meaning), when you really targeted Falko. Then again, this is entirely WIFOM so I'm not going to vote just yet, but it is something to consider.


Applies just as readily to sheep.

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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Thu Apr 11, 2013 4:22 am

adbwop: In fact it works better for sheep as it implies exactly what you suggested.

-Tails
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby thechuck51 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:46 am

rishaed wrote:
thechuck51 wrote:My point was that if no better case can be made he is our best option. I agree that he is most likely town but if it comes down to a random lynch or lynching a player that targeted somebody that was killed I will choose the latter.

I don't understand why you would think this.... could you please elaborate.

certainly, as I see it we pretty much have two options: lynching somebody for being a sheep or whatever which is essentially a random lynch at this point or lynching somebody who admittedly targeted a player that was killed last night (you targeted nendreel and he is now dead). I prefer the second option.

I don't know what the odds are that falko targeted himself and that you killed nendreel but we only have a 10% chance of hitting the SK lynching somebody else so I think your lynch is the best bet.
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