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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Wed Apr 10, 2013 8:43 pm

haha. nice. I was looking at the list compiled by anamaniacks.

-Tails
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby thechuck51 on Wed Apr 10, 2013 8:47 pm

vote rish

I don't see any better option. We have to weigh the odds that he is the last SK vs odds of us guessing right out of the other 10.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby anamainiacks on Wed Apr 10, 2013 9:51 pm

TA1LGUNN3R wrote:haha. nice. I was looking at the list compiled by anamaniacks.

-Tails

Haha yea, he posted his target after I posted the list.

I agree that out of those remaining, rishaed's case is marginally the strongest. If we want to look at people who weren't keen on lynching, safariguy does come up being questionable:
safariguy5 wrote:The question here is whether we want to pursue a lynch today. With only two RL days left, I suppose we could target rishaed, but given we got one of the SKers, I worry that excessive lynching could give the remaining SKer an advantage.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby rishaed on Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:40 pm

thechuck51 wrote:My point was that if no better case can be made he is our best option. I agree that he is most likely town but if it comes down to a random lynch or lynching a player that targeted somebody that was killed I will choose the latter.

I don't understand why you would think this.... could you please elaborate.

And as much as I don't mind taking one for town I will vote Tails for minor skimming, and the fact that I still want to play for a bit yet. :mrgreen:
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby gregwolf121 on Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:45 pm

well personally im inclined to to think that rishaed isn't the sk

what i find suspicious is chuck, all hes posted today is that we should lynch rishaed, while its a logical arguement he seems just a bit too fixated on it. so vote chuck.

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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby jonty125 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:32 am

TA1LGUNN3R wrote:My top choices would be those who claimed they targeted Nendreel or sheep, i.e. gregwolf and rishaed, merely for wifom reasons, and IB because he hasn't been forthcoming with who he targeted.

-Tails


Sheep died by modkill, with 2 other deaths, that confirms, he wasn't an SK target. So unvote, vote TA1LGUNN3R for faulty logic and for the skimming over who IB targeted.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby aage on Thu Apr 11, 2013 3:21 am

anamainiacks wrote:If we want to look at people who weren't keen on lynching, safariguy does come up being questionable:
safariguy5 wrote:The question here is whether we want to pursue a lynch today. With only two RL days left, I suppose we could target rishaed, but given we got one of the SKers, I worry that excessive lynching could give the remaining SKer an advantage.

I agree, but since we have a timetable you would have to swing momentum into that case within 24 hours. I'm not very keen on lynching Saf without giving him time to defend.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Thu Apr 11, 2013 4:04 am

jonty125 wrote:
TA1LGUNN3R wrote:My top choices would be those who claimed they targeted Nendreel or sheep, i.e. gregwolf and rishaed, merely for wifom reasons, and IB because he hasn't been forthcoming with who he targeted.

-Tails


Sheep died by modkill, with 2 other deaths, that confirms, he wasn't an SK target. So unvote, vote TA1LGUNN3R for faulty logic and for the skimming over who IB targeted.


How unimaginative of you. I think anamaniacks summed it up pretty nicely:

anamaniacks wrote:Or, you thought that through, and decided that faking a target on Nendreel would make for a great way to clear yourself early in the game (as compared to giving a random name which doesn't add any meaning), when you really targeted Falko. Then again, this is entirely WIFOM so I'm not going to vote just yet, but it is something to consider.


Applies just as readily to sheep.

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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Thu Apr 11, 2013 4:22 am

adbwop: In fact it works better for sheep as it implies exactly what you suggested.

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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby thechuck51 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:46 am

rishaed wrote:
thechuck51 wrote:My point was that if no better case can be made he is our best option. I agree that he is most likely town but if it comes down to a random lynch or lynching a player that targeted somebody that was killed I will choose the latter.

I don't understand why you would think this.... could you please elaborate.

certainly, as I see it we pretty much have two options: lynching somebody for being a sheep or whatever which is essentially a random lynch at this point or lynching somebody who admittedly targeted a player that was killed last night (you targeted nendreel and he is now dead). I prefer the second option.

I don't know what the odds are that falko targeted himself and that you killed nendreel but we only have a 10% chance of hitting the SK lynching somebody else so I think your lynch is the best bet.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby pancakemix on Thu Apr 11, 2013 7:45 am

Chuck, that's not possible. Falko had to have been killed by the other SK unless there is a third killing role. Are you suggesting that there is a third killer or looking for an easy lynch? Vote Chuck

I know I said tails was a likely lynch, but I really don't want that to happen. He's saying some good stuff right now.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby thechuck51 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 7:59 am

pancakemix wrote:Chuck, that's not possible. Falko had to have been killed by the other SK unless there is a third killing role. Are you suggesting that there is a third killer or looking for an easy lynch? Vote Chuck

I know I said tails was a likely lynch, but I really don't want that to happen. He's saying some good stuff right now.

Its not possible for Falko to have targeted and killed himself and for Rish to have killed Nendreel?
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby jonty125 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:31 am

thechuck51 wrote:
pancakemix wrote:Chuck, that's not possible. Falko had to have been killed by the other SK unless there is a third killing role. Are you suggesting that there is a third killer or looking for an easy lynch? Vote Chuck

I know I said tails was a likely lynch, but I really don't want that to happen. He's saying some good stuff right now.

Its not possible for Falko to have targeted and killed himself and for Rish to have killed Nendreel?


Granted, it is. But extremely unlikely and stupid to say the least.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby anamainiacks on Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:44 am

pancakemix wrote:Chuck, that's not possible. Falko had to have been killed by the other SK unless there is a third killing role. Are you suggesting that there is a third killer or looking for an easy lynch? Vote Chuck

I know I said tails was a likely lynch, but I really don't want that to happen. He's saying some good stuff right now.

Like I mentioned, and Tails has reinforced, rishaed could have claimed to have targeted Nendreel while actually targeting Falko, so that people would have a reason to clear him of any further suspicion on future days. Why? Because the townies would definitely have a subconscious thought of "Wow, rishaed was so noble, honestly declaring that he had targeted Nendreel even though he would've fallen into suspicion with us!"

I would preferably like to lynch rishaed, but I don't want to see Tails lynched today. So I'm to stop that for now, I'll cause a tie of 3 votes apiece by voting thechuck51.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby aage on Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:12 pm

Very well, I'll switch my vote too.

thechuck wrote:Its not possible for Falko to have targeted and killed himself and for Rish to have killed Nendreel?
This has already been discussed, thank you for your input...

unvote, vote thechuck51
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby thechuck51 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:52 pm

aage wrote:Very well, I'll switch my vote too.

thechuck wrote:Its not possible for Falko to have targeted and killed himself and for Rish to have killed Nendreel?
This has already been discussed, thank you for your input...

unvote, vote thechuck51

i know its been discussed, i've been the one discussing it. thanks for your input... :roll:
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby aage on Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:22 pm

thechuck51 wrote:
aage wrote:Very well, I'll switch my vote too.

thechuck wrote:Its not possible for Falko to have targeted and killed himself and for Rish to have killed Nendreel?
This has already been discussed, thank you for your input...

unvote, vote thechuck51

i know its been discussed, i've been the one discussing it. thanks for your input... :roll:

Then why bring it up again? The points you make have already been made, yet you bring them up like they're significant. At least, I assume they're significant, because it's the only defence you give.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby safariguy5 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:28 pm

I'd like to hear why you think that course of action is likely chuck. What has changed since when we first discussed it to now to make you think self targeting is suddenly a viable option. With the uncertainty of who is SKer, it doesn't make any sense for either the town or the SKer to target themselves.

If you are the SKer and you target yourself, then autoloss.

If you are town and you target yourself, then your night actions automatically seem more suspicious than most everyone else's, probably putting you on the list of possible lynch candidates.

I really see no reason why you would target yourself since you don't know your role.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby / on Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:30 pm

Final vote count

TA1LGUNN3R: 2 votes: rishaed, jonty125
rishaed: 1 vote: thechuck51
thechuck51: 4 votes: gregwolf121, pancakemix, anamainiacks, aage


As the deadline has been reached, thechuck51 town overeager targeter has been lynched.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Night Two

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Thu Apr 11, 2013 9:17 pm

Well, it occurred to me too late for tonight's actions, and seeing as how / said he didn't mind the night talk, I thought I'd throw out what I believe to be a method which would catch the SK within at least 2 days.

Each player targets the player below them in the list, the final player rotates to the first. As this guarantees that each player should be targeted once, what will inevitably happen is that a target will be claimed twice. Lynch both players without question. If we're lucky, we get it first shot, if not, then we get it the second day.

I believe this will work because / specifically said there will only be two SKs for >10 players, and one is dead.

Wanted to throw that out there in case I don't survive the night.

-Tails
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Night Two

Postby rishaed on Thu Apr 11, 2013 9:27 pm

Well that took an unexpected turn... If i had to guess then I wasn't suspecting chuck to get lynched when I was gone, even though what he said was highly improbable.
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby thechuck51 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 9:32 pm

safariguy5 wrote:I'd like to hear why you think that course of action is likely chuck. What has changed since when we first discussed it to now to make you think self targeting is suddenly a viable option. With the uncertainty of who is SKer, it doesn't make any sense for either the town or the SKer to target themselves.

If you are the SKer and you target yourself, then autoloss.

If you are town and you target yourself, then your night actions automatically seem more suspicious than most everyone else's, probably putting you on the list of possible lynch candidates.

I really see no reason why you would target yourself since you don't know your role.

I am not saying its likely that falko targeted himself but we can't say for sure that he didn't. He did have this to say day 1 so it at least occured to him
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So, what about the idea of Thechuck51 in targeting ourselves? That would be a crack in the system....or we better play within the obvious patterns from the thread?

If he did then rish is the other SK. However unlikely that is it seems, to me its a better lead than anything else we have right now. But I can see that nobody agrees with my line of thinking.

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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Day Two

Postby rishaed on Thu Apr 11, 2013 9:35 pm

thechuck51 wrote:
safariguy5 wrote:I'd like to hear why you think that course of action is likely chuck. What has changed since when we first discussed it to now to make you think self targeting is suddenly a viable option. With the uncertainty of who is SKer, it doesn't make any sense for either the town or the SKer to target themselves.

If you are the SKer and you target yourself, then autoloss.

If you are town and you target yourself, then your night actions automatically seem more suspicious than most everyone else's, probably putting you on the list of possible lynch candidates.

I really see no reason why you would target yourself since you don't know your role.

I am not saying its likely that falko targeted himself but we can't say for sure that he didn't. He did have this to say day 1 so it at least occured to him
Falkomagno wrote:Vote aage for contributing only with noice.

So, what about the idea of Thechuck51 in targeting ourselves? That would be a crack in the system....or we better play within the obvious patterns from the thread?

If he did then rish is the other SK. However unlikely that is it seems, to me its a better lead than anything else we have right now. But I can see that nobody agrees with my line of thinking.

fastposted


I know it probably wasn't intentional, but you just got lynched chuck.... The dead unfortunately can't talk. #-o
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Night Two

Postby thechuck51 on Thu Apr 11, 2013 9:37 pm

:oops:
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Re: Mystery Killer Mafia Night Two

Postby anamainiacks on Thu Apr 11, 2013 10:48 pm

TA1LGUNN3R wrote:Well, it occurred to me too late for tonight's actions, and seeing as how / said he didn't mind the night talk, I thought I'd throw out what I believe to be a method which would catch the SK within at least 2 days.

Each player targets the player below them in the list, the final player rotates to the first. As this guarantees that each player should be targeted once, what will inevitably happen is that a target will be claimed twice. Lynch both players without question. If we're lucky, we get it first shot, if not, then we get it the second day.

I believe this will work because / specifically said there will only be two SKs for >10 players, and one is dead.

Wanted to throw that out there in case I don't survive the night.

-Tails

I'm fine with this.
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