New "Intensity Cubes"

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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby jleonnn on Thu Jun 24, 2010 9:18 pm

I thought you guys were just gonna change the art for the dice lol
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby Metsfanmax on Thu Jun 24, 2010 11:58 pm

I know a guy who kidnapped lack and forced him to give up the dice file at gunpoint. True story guys.
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby donovan THE DARK on Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:31 am

Yeah.... I am not liking these new dice. Can we pick which one to use? lol kidding. I guess I will just have to get used to them. :-(
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby Dako on Fri Jun 25, 2010 3:37 am

mibi wrote:I have just been informed of a member who shall remain nameless has created a ip packet sniffer script which detects one way IO packets from random.org to conquerclub.com and is able to piece together that dice batch string with decent accuracy. This member is able to correlate attacks with favorable results match against the batch database, although it only works about half of the time, and works about 80% of the time when there is less dice usage, between 1am-4am. Basically, this use can launch an attack when streaks on on their side. Sometimes it can take upto 1o minutes to sniff a streak long enough to have time to launch the attack and match it to the dice string.

Ahahahaha, that just made my day :D.
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby lackattack on Fri Jun 25, 2010 11:57 am

As fantastic as it sounds, I must take beersurfer's story seriously to protect the integrity of the game. I'm currently looking into ways to further prevent dice predicting.
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby jaimito101 on Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:42 pm

so if there is a streak of high numbers comming up, and there are about 12 rolls a second...

you would have a 1/12 second window to throw the dice so they will be in your favour... a 1/12 second too late or too early and the defender would have the streak on their side. (the selection of random dice nrs move to the to the right, wich can be 2,3,4,5 steps away)

taking these facts into account, to exploit the system you would then need an automated program clicking on the assault button for you (as humans cannot see a command and react to it within 1/12 of a second), wich to my knowledge is not yet available? also any kind of lag could also screw you horribly.

not buying this...
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby nietzsche on Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:49 pm

To me is still random. With random dice you can lose 30 in a row or win 30 in a row, the problem with the complaints is that we use selective memory.

To tell you the truth, I thought it was done like the new system, which to me is simpler. Simple = Elegant.

Either way is random.

I once lost 8 coin tosses in a row, I remember exactly because we were playing with coins of about 8dls, and at the end I only lost 2 coins.
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby owenshooter on Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:57 pm

lackattack wrote:As fantastic as it sounds, I must take beersurfer's story seriously to protect the integrity of the game. I'm currently looking into ways to further prevent dice predicting.

almost as good as the one about my being crucified, left in a tomb, and then rising again after 3 days...-the black jesus

p.s.-ever fix that game that me and jbrettlip are stuck in? let's get moving, turtle boy!!!
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby sherkaner on Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:07 pm

jaimito101 wrote:so if there is a streak of high numbers comming up, and there are about 12 rolls a second...

you would have a 1/12 second window to throw the dice so they will be in your favour... a 1/12 second too late or too early and the defender would have the streak on their side. (the selection of random dice nrs move to the to the right, wich can be 2,3,4,5 steps away)

taking these facts into account, to exploit the system you would then need an automated program clicking on the assault button for you (as humans cannot see a command and react to it within 1/12 of a second), wich to my knowledge is not yet available? also any kind of lag could also screw you horribly.

not buying this...

Not really, he talks about a 80% chance of being succesful. So it's probably averaged over multiple dice, there might be just a set of 30 dice where 24 get you a win or something like that (or the other way around). But you'd still have to throw 2 attacks to know where the dice are in the sequence before you know anything (2 should actually do the trick). Possible, but hard to pull off.
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby nietzsche on Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:17 pm

mibi wrote:I have just been informed of a member who shall remain nameless has created a ip packet sniffer script which detects one way IO packets from random.org to conquerclub.com and is able to piece together that dice batch string with decent accuracy. This member is able to correlate attacks with favorable results match against the batch database, although it only works about half of the time, and works about 80% of the time when there is less dice usage, between 1am-4am. Basically, this use can launch an attack when streaks on on their side. Sometimes it can take upto 1o minutes to sniff a streak long enough to have time to launch the attack and match it to the dice string.


LOL

1. how is he gonna sniff the packet? He'd had to be in the same NAT, and I don't think the webhosting cc uses is in a NAT. You have to be in the middle to sniff a packet. (If that were the case you could always modify the numbers once gotten from random.org by any simple formula, like adding 1, making a 6 a 1.)

2. predict? in case he got it it would be a 100% true.

3. the timing, even if you now the sequence, how fast is he to know which number was last used and then deduct whats next and make an attack, and so on. it's ridiculous.

4. 10 minutes to sniff a streak? lol, if he gets it it's instantly.

5. why would you post this without computer knowledge? didn't you think that there would be at least 100 readers of this thread who knew how full of shit you are?
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby AndyDufresne on Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:19 pm

nietzsche wrote:5. why would you post this without computer knowledge? didn't you think that there would be at least 100 readers of this thread who knew how full of shit you are?

I think that was his point.

In any case, that is more off topic. ;)


--Andy
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby jaimito101 on Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:40 pm

sherkaner wrote:
jaimito101 wrote:so if there is a streak of high numbers comming up, and there are about 12 rolls a second...

you would have a 1/12 second window to throw the dice so they will be in your favour... a 1/12 second too late or too early and the defender would have the streak on their side. (the selection of random dice nrs move to the to the right, wich can be 2,3,4,5 steps away)

taking these facts into account, to exploit the system you would then need an automated program clicking on the assault button for you (as humans cannot see a command and react to it within 1/12 of a second), wich to my knowledge is not yet available? also any kind of lag could also screw you horribly.

not buying this...

Not really, he talks about a 80% chance of being succesful. So it's probably averaged over multiple dice, there might be just a set of 30 dice where 24 get you a win or something like that (or the other way around). But you'd still have to throw 2 attacks to know where the dice are in the sequence before you know anything (2 should actually do the trick). Possible, but hard to pull off.


the flaw with this is: if there are 30 dice with 24 getting you a win ( this would mean high numbers for the first 3 (attackers)and low numbers for the second 2 (defenders) .

example: the "magic"sequence could be ..... 666116661166611....
1rst attack = 666 vs 11
2nd attack= 666 vs 11
etc etc
so by pressing the auto assault button within this 1/12 of a second it would result in a succes.

problem is that at the point this streak is coming up, there are 12 other people pressing the assault button (attacks per second taking place on cc) and thereby using up the "random numbers", these rolls can vary from 2,3,4,5 die being thrown so these would then throw off your magic sequence.

imagine if you are 1/12 second too early: depending on the amount of die thrown by the people before you, your auto attack sequence could then look like this:
1rst attack: 116 vs 66
2nd attakc: 116 vs 66
etc etc

1/12 second too late, the same happens and it seems highly unprobably that a human can react to a program telling you to assault, and clicking the button within 1/12 of a second.

other problems that arise could be the lag your machine has, making it extremely hard if not further impossible to precisely squezee that attack in that 1/12 of a second window of hope, and also how could your sequence predictor account for auto attacks, wich may gobble up much more die than those 5, moving the sequence even further?
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby jrh_cardinal on Fri Jun 25, 2010 8:31 pm

I agree with jaimito. Under the old system (unless I'm mistaken), there were two lists, one for attacking dice and one for defending. Once you got the list, you just had to wait for a good sequence in the attacking list and disregard defending.

Under the new system, there's no such thing as a "good sequence" because there's only one list, so like he said, you could very easily end up getting the bad dice if you are off just 1/10th of a second, or less
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby sherkaner on Sat Jun 26, 2010 4:28 am

Ah yes, I was still talking about the old system, in the new system it is way harder to get an advantage.
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Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby FarangDemon on Sat Jun 26, 2010 5:22 am

Q: Given a sequence of dice rolls where we know that certain die values were rolled more often than others, could a cheater still gain an advantage by auto-attacking within this interval, even if he could not be certain of starting at a particular favorable dice throw of his choosing within this interval?

(For this scenario we are not taking information of knowledge of exact dice file sequences into account for attack/wait to attack later decision, just knowledge of dice distribution in upcoming interval. Yes the cheater would need to know all the sequences in order to sync with the dice file but I just wanted to test what kind of analysis he could do with this limited subset of information.)

A: Yes. He could gain a slight advantage by refraining from auto-attacking during an interval that contains highly skewed distributions favoring one or two die rolls, especially if it is a 6. He should auto-attack during intervals that contain even distributions of dice values.

How do I know?

I wrote a program that:

  • Generates random sequences of 10,000 dice rolls according to an uneven dice distribution of my specification
  • Evaluates outcome of auto-attacking for each of the 5 different sequences that are possible, depending on his timing (he can't be sure which one it will be)

With normal dice distribution for attacker and defender (1/6 chance for each die value), the attacker wins 54% of dice pairings - you can check that out on Gambit Battle Odds.

With skewed dice distribution for attacker and defender it is possible to win only 41% given the following dice distribution (1-5 - 10% each, 6 - 50%)

Die Roll 1 2 3 4 5 6
Die Policy 10 10 10 10 10 50
Sequence Win 2 Win 1 Lose 1 Lose 2 Win %
0 390 868 742 0.41
1 414 852 733 0.42
2 442 809 748 0.42
3 407 827 765 0.41
4 404 822 773 0.41

Given 16% chance to get a 6 - attacker wins 54% of dice pairings

From my program for various skewed 6 distributions:

  • 33% chance to get a 6 - attacker wins 50%
  • 50% chance to get a 6 - attacker wins 41%
  • 67% chance to get a 6 - attacker wins 30%
  • 83% chance to get a 6 - attacker wins 17%
  • 100% chance to get a 6 - attacker wins 0% (all 6's means ties go to defender)

Given a large enough dice file, it is very likely that long sequences will emerge containing 30-50% 6's.
The more disproportionate distributions would exist in much shorter intervals.

The cheater would have information like:

Scenario A


Program Output

  • The next minute is an even distribution
  • ~3-4 minutes from now refrain from attacking because there is a 3 second pocket of 67% sixes
  • 8 minutes from now there will be a pocket of 50% sixes lasting a 10-20 seconds

Action:

Attack now and stop in 3 minutes - otherwise he risks hitting the 3-second pocket of 6's where he'll win only 30% of dice pairings instead of 54%.

Scenario B

Program Output

  • The next 2 minutes have 6 distribution of 33%
  • Then distribution will be normal
  • 18 minutes from now there will be a pocket of 50% sixes lasting 1 minute

Action:

Wait 3 minutes to attack. Stop attacking 15 minutes from now (to be safe).

Conclusion

Mere knowledge of upcoming distribution of die roll values is enough to give an attacker the advantage by avoiding intervals in time in which 6's or other die values are disproportionately represented.
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