Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

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Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:06 pm

GreecePwns wrote:
patches70 wrote:
Fruitcake wrote:Not lending the money would be a slap in the face that leads to Greece leaving the Euro, and the Italy and Spain following after. At that point there's no reason for any nation to hold onto a dying currency. Good job, Phatscotty. You've led all of Europe into unprecedented economic meltdown.
Actually that's simplifying matters a tad. Not lending money to Greece would be have to be tied to a withdrawal from the present mechanism. A new Drachma is created, allowed to float, immediately devalues by 50% which would actually hurt the bankers more than anyone...well actually the central bankers who are the lapdogs of their political masters so who really gives a shite anyway. The Euro rises in value.

Ramifications to Greece? They suffer a jump in imported inflation, turn to home made goods for a couple of years while they reconstruct, export like crazy because their goods are so cheap, rebalance their economy and ease back into the mainstream. This isn't rocket science.

Winners overall? Greece, and the Greek people. Losers overall? The Germans

Now ask yourself why this isn't happening.



Exactly. It'll be a bitter pill to swallow in the short run, but in the long run Greece can take control of their own affairs and start on a true path healing (economically speaking).

Right now, Greece is insolvent. No amount of lending to them is going to change that. They'll default eventually. For a long time the EU has been kicking the can down the road. Now instead of kicking the can they've been stomping on it.

The end result is going to be the same. Greece defaults (because they are insolvent), leave the Euro, the return of the Drachma which is immediately devalued and the Greek people pick themselves up and start working their way out of the mess. But at least that way they'll be out from under the thumb of the ECB and the other EU nations who are poised to pillage the hell out of the country.
And all those people who have been saying that Greek bonds are the slam dunk trade of the year get taken to the cleaners.
I agree with all of this.
Of course the question was what I would do as leader of the ECB. I couldn't kick Greece out of the Euro, because a country can only leave on its own. I couldn't take the ECB down, because my job would require me to keep my own position.

In a perfect world, the above would happen. The reality is that it wasn't ever going to, and my proposal and conditions attached to the loans reflected these realities of the situation. Delay the inevitable? I don't think so, in the case of Greece at least. The other countries have different problems than Greek government, whose problems are brought on by institutional causes instead of purely financial causes.
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

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Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby BigBallinStalin on Wed Jul 25, 2012 1:12 pm

Fruitcake wrote:I would have never have allowed this bloody awful set of politically driven circumstances to get going in the first place. The Euro was a complete fudge and should not have happened the way it did. So in answer to the question about 'perfect control', I would not have allowed it to happen, so the present problem would not now exist.


That's the problem with Austrian economics or similar approaches for these policy debates.

People have already set themselves into a trajectory from which they can't leave without incurring tremendous costs, and there's no incremental and easy way to wean people away from such serious mistakes. Therefore, no politicians and policymaker wishes to adopt an Austrian/similar approach to their economic policies.
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Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:18 am

In Greece the mainstream media has begun discussing what Fruitcake mentioned before.

There have been a whole host of new articles bandying about the idea that the troika and Germany's actions are not meant on helping the Greek economy out, but on forcing an exit.

The ECB is no longer accepting Greek bonds as collateral as of last week. It has done this before, but only in special situations such as PSI. Greek banks are now borrowing from the ECB at 3.50% instead of the usual 1.50%. I even read one that acknowledged the obvious: that austerity has only made things worse.

Other articles are wondering whether Greece can "pull an Argentina."

Instead of the irrational fear that surrounded a Greek exit as a result of certain politicians seeking votes out of fear, a rational discussion on the effects on the actors an on the outside actors' motives has become possible. And that is a very good thing.

Meanwhile, PASOK infighting has gotten worse due to a new bill introduced in parliament regarding the closing down of two-thirds of the country's universities. This party is arguing itself out of Parliament at this rate.
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

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Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Fri Oct 19, 2012 12:59 pm

An update on public opinion polling which occurred yesterday: These polls are within the context of increased Nazi violence toward immigrants and their attack of a theater showing a play parodying Christianity, as well as the preparation of another bailout coupled with 14 billion euros of austerity. Keep in mind, there is no election scheduled, but given the fragile state of government it could happen within a months notice.

151 seats are needed for a majority.

SYRIZA moves to 1st place at 30.5% or 129 seats
ND has 27% or 70 seats
Golden Dawn is now way up to 14% or 37 seats
Independent Greeks has 7% or 18 seats
The KKE has 6.5% or 18 seats
PASOK is way down to 5.5% or 14 seats
Democratic Left is unchanged at 5.5% or 14 seats

Outside of Golden Dawn doubling its support through violence toward immigrants (and providing financial aid for people who can prove Greek citizenship), the other major development is the impending death of PASOK. Not only is support for the party down, but its left wing members, a group called Left Initiative, are preparing to break away from the party soon for its unquestioning pro-bailout stance while in government. This won't threaten the government's majority of 178 seats, but now either PASOK or Democratic Left pulling out will cause a new election (unlikely, but possible given Democratic Left's history of opportunism).
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby Fruitcake on Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:38 am

European leaders managed to kick the can full of dynamite down the road again last night...a case of third time lucky?

Along with the IMF they managed to agree a framework to reduce the debt burden that currently hangs over Greece.The main headline is the reduction in interest rates on some loans moving forward, however the cuts now mean that countries such as Ireland, Portugal and Spain will be losing money on their loans as they initially borrowed the money at higher interest rates! (Behold, dear reader, the looking glass logic that burdens countries who have huge problems of their own with this insane move.)

As well as getting 'more moolah' by reducing the amount the Greeks will have to pay, Greece has also been given more time to pay. Maturities have been extended by 15 years on both loans with the interest on the money from the European Financial Stability Facility delayed by 10 years. By doing this the Europeans have moved the model closer to that demanded by the IMF, that of bringing the debt/GDP level closer to the 120% the IMF have been so vociferous about....Well that's the theory, and as long as this papers over the cracks for a few more months, then they can think up some other wheeze next year so that the problem isn't really surfacing until post autumn 2013 when the General Elections in Germany and Italy will be taking place...(they must think the populous are really naive, which unfortunately when it comes to these matters they do tend to be)

However, not everything has been resolved, there is a sting in the tail of all this. This centres around the fact that Greece will not be entitled to its latest round of bailout money until a debt buyback plan is agreed by December 13th. This Debt buyback allows Greece to buy its own debt and cancel it at a lot cheaper levels than holding until maturity; unfortunately given the increase in prospects for Greece in the past few months the price of Greek debt has increased from around 15c in an Euro to around 35c in a Euro, actually making the plan more expensive. Greece really does need this cash by then as it has a EUR5.4bn bond repayment due on the 14th.

Markets were marginally positive about this as a deal had been pretty much factored in anyway, so the Euro gains were not that great.

I hear on the grapevine that certain banks have been doing seriously well out of all this by trading the Euro currency, a very nifty way of assisting their task of getting their balance sheets back in order. One has to wonder (if one thinks in this way) as to whether the banks/Govts don't actually work this in concert, thereby ensuring the general working populations ultimately pay for all the bank losses since 2008. The upside to this being that the only losers are the general populations whilst the Banks and Political classes are in a win win situation....
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby Fruitcake on Tue Feb 19, 2013 3:35 pm

Wasn't sure whether to post this in the old banks thread or the busted Ireland thread or here, but seeing as this thread is more current decided it should go here. (I could be wrong, I am often so)

I have been quiet recently. Been doing some digging and thinking. So heads up people, here is the news.

This time next year the Euro will not exist as it does now.

This is what has been exercising my intellect for some months. The question has to be...What will be the trigger that fires the bullet?

Gossip and those who think about such matters say it will be Greece or Italy leaving, but I am not convinced any more about this. To me it is now clear that the euro will finally crash (in its present form) when a bank or two do a Lehman on us.

Reuters recent reports (well recent as in a couple of weeks back) point out that UniCredit is really struggling. Why? Because, like so many Euro banks, it is struggling to adhere to higher tier 1 capital ratios. This is taking place in a market that isn't interested in bank debt any more. Banks are being forced to asset strip themselves and the image of Lehman becomes clearer when one watches the deposits they are making at the ECB. Read back in my other thread about how Lehman were depositing overnight and withdrawing in the morning after the checks had been made. Yes, this is happening now amongst Banks in Europe. Just like them good ol' days, the distinction between reality and spin ever more blurred while spin slowly wins the war.

My bets on the banks nearest the exit? Obviously UniCredit is one. There are others for the short-list; RBS (definitely), Alpha bank (same) Credit Agricole (watch the French Govt keep bailing that out until there are riots in the streets). Even the purportedly safe Santander is ripe for falling, mark my words.

When Lehman went pop it was obvious to everyone from a single celled creature upwards, this was a bust bank and no mistake. But in the Euro game things are different. Banks and Sovereign states are now wholly reliant upon each other. Sovereign banks are buying sovereign debt. A merry go round old Bernie Madoff must be watching in awe.

Those in the know don't want this to happen....too many ex bankers buying up the countryside as it is, we don't want any more. The problem is many banks are effectively the walking dead, surviving on ever decreasing circles, some almost on a daily basis, to keep going. Facts are they should have been allowed to expire some time back but have been on life support ever since and the electricity is about to be switched off (a bit like it is in the UK anyway!)

Any others for the list? Well, SocGen (again if the French don't screw around and let it happen), Bank of Greece (obviously), bank of Ireland and even Commerzbank...all on the watch list.
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby BigBallinStalin on Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:10 pm

Can't their governments and/or the ECB simply create new credit and dump it into those banks--whenever they become insolvent?

Or maybe the EU can simply buy up securities of whatever seems to be causing the problem (e.g. the Fed buying $50bn/month of MBS)?

Of course, this can't last forever, and this will make the 'end game' much more difficult and costly--but such steps may delay your 1-year prediction, right?
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:40 pm

Surely they will delay his prediction, but then what?

Figured I'd bring another political update to this thread since it popped up (thank you, Fruitcake, for that interesting and certainly credible position).

There is a debate whether or not Cyprus should accept Greek-style austerity and troika bailouts/intervention. The two major non-economic issues were the still-unresolved Cyprus unification issue and Cyprus potentially joining NATO (an idea previously passed in Parliament but vetoed by the outgoing communist president Christofias). There were three major candidates for this election:

Nicos Anastasiadis: Supported by a New Democracy equivalent in Cyprus and an "old guard" establishment politician. Pro-auterity, pro-EU bailout, pro-NATO membership, and pro-Annan Plan*. Got 46 percent in the first round.

Stavros Malas: Supported by the incumbent communist party and a newcomer to politics (a career geneticist and former Health Minister). Anti-austerity, pro-EU bailout, anti-NATO, pro-Christofias plan**. Got 27 percent in the first round.

Giorgios Lillikas: An independent former member of the communists. Anti-austerity, anti-bailout, anti-NATO, anti-Annan plan and vehemently anti-Turkey and TRNC. Advocate of selling Cypriot oil reserves immediately to fix budget problems. Got 25 percent in the first round.

The first two will go to a runoff election which will take place this Sunday. Malas is aggressively courting Lillikas' endorsement, without which he will of course have no chance of winning.

*essentially, Cyprus and the TRNC joining in an American-style government with two states: one Greek and one Turkish. The President and VP would be 1 Greek and 1 Turk elected together to 5-year terms and swapping positions every 20 months.
**a highly-centralized federal government, ending geographic separation of Greek and Turkish populations, rapprochement.

Now to Greece, where the government continues to fall to pieces. The elected government of New Democracy, PASOK and Democratic Left initially had 179 seats. Rampant resignation and forced ejection from the three parties have brought it down to 163, meaning a party leaving the coalition will trigger an election. Because of this (and the fact that their coalition pledge lasts only until the 2014 EU elections), opinion polling has still been done by major firms. The latest ones give us this:

SYRIZA 126 (+55)
ND 72 (-55)
Golden Dawn 31 (+15)
PASOK 20 (-13)
KKE 18 (+6)
Independent Greeks 17 (-3)
Democratic Left 15 (-2)
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby Fruitcake on Wed Feb 20, 2013 3:54 am

BigBallinStalin wrote:Can't their governments and/or the ECB simply create new credit and dump it into those banks--whenever they become insolvent?

Or maybe the EU can simply buy up securities of whatever seems to be causing the problem (e.g. the Fed buying $50bn/month of MBS)?

Of course, this can't last forever, and this will make the 'end game' much more difficult and costly--but such steps may delay your 1-year prediction, right?


Yes of course they can! The problem is, they already are. This is why Bernie Madoff must be sitting there with his eyes bleeding. A Sovereign Govt props up a bank so that Bank can buy that Govt's sovereign debt, you couldn't make this stuff up! But they are doing it. Every sane person can see this will end in tears but they refuse to, or do they. In my honest opinion, see my last sentence below.

GreecePwns wrote:Surely they will delay his prediction, but then what?

Figured I'd bring another political update to this thread since it popped up (thank you, Fruitcake, for that interesting and certainly credible position).

There is a debate whether or not Cyprus should accept Greek-style austerity and troika bailouts/intervention. The two major non-economic issues were the still-unresolved Cyprus unification issue and Cyprus potentially joining NATO (an idea previously passed in Parliament but vetoed by the outgoing communist president Christofias). There were three major candidates for this election:

Nicos Anastasiadis: Supported by a New Democracy equivalent in Cyprus and an "old guard" establishment politician. Pro-auterity, pro-EU bailout, pro-NATO membership, and pro-Annan Plan*. Got 46 percent in the first round.

Stavros Malas: Supported by the incumbent communist party and a newcomer to politics (a career geneticist and former Health Minister). Anti-austerity, pro-EU bailout, anti-NATO, pro-Christofias plan**. Got 27 percent in the first round.

Giorgios Lillikas: An independent former member of the communists. Anti-austerity, anti-bailout, anti-NATO, anti-Annan plan and vehemently anti-Turkey and TRNC. Advocate of selling Cypriot oil reserves immediately to fix budget problems. Got 25 percent in the first round.

The first two will go to a runoff election which will take place this Sunday. Malas is aggressively courting Lillikas' endorsement, without which he will of course have no chance of winning.

*essentially, Cyprus and the TRNC joining in an American-style government with two states: one Greek and one Turkish. The President and VP would be 1 Greek and 1 Turk elected together to 5-year terms and swapping positions every 20 months.
**a highly-centralized federal government, ending geographic separation of Greek and Turkish populations, rapprochement.

Now to Greece, where the government continues to fall to pieces. The elected government of New Democracy, PASOK and Democratic Left initially had 179 seats. Rampant resignation and forced ejection from the three parties have brought it down to 163, meaning a party leaving the coalition will trigger an election. Because of this (and the fact that their coalition pledge lasts only until the 2014 EU elections), opinion polling has still been done by major firms. The latest ones give us this:

SYRIZA 126 (+55)
ND 72 (-55)
Golden Dawn 31 (+15)
PASOK 20 (-13)
KKE 18 (+6)
Independent Greeks 17 (-3)
Democratic Left 15 (-2)


Taking the Cyprus point for my answer: There is more to this than meets the eye. For instance, did you know that Cyprus is now in the top 3 investors in Russia? Interesting times huh. The reason for this is simple. Cyprus is full of Russian billionaires and their companies because Cyprus made it so advantageous to position there. Now, I tend to avoid doing too much business with Russians. They are a lovely people but I like to keep my thumbs or any other appendages if the deal goes tits up. They do give me the screaming abdabs.There are some real horror stories that do the rounds and can be verified with digging. Notwithstanding this, the Russians have propped up London for many years so I cannot hold too much against them. This is where Cyprus comes in. For many years now loads of moolah has been hitting the property/assets, spending in London...what not many people know is that the source of those funds in the first instance is.....Cyprus!

How this has happened is simple. Pre 2008 Iceland was the favoured home of Russian moolah. After 2008 Cyprus became home of choice. This incensed Turkey but it was not to matter. Cyprus became a vassal state of the Greater Russia empire. Cypriot companies are dirt cheap to set up, very few dollars are used as holding companies because the corporate tax rate is only 10% (although word is that you can negotiate this downwards if you are Russian). So now, little ol' Cyprus is officially the third largest investor in Russia. But the real kicker in this is the small inalienable fact that has the Russians creaming themselves. Cyprus is an EU country! This is not some banana republic with wars and coup d'états happening on a regular basis, nor is this Iceland with it's most odd set of financial rules (pre 2008). Once again, you couldn't make this stuff up.

What makes this situation ever more fascinating and something of an irony that has the Anglo Saxon rolling around on the floor clutching his/her sides as he/she gasps for breath through laughter is the small fact that the Germans may be having to bail out Cyprus very soon! The dear Germans are livid, furious, puce with rage over this. Cyprus, which is full of dirty laundry, which used to be in London being washed but has moved house, so London gets Euro cleaned sheets, the technocrats in the EU know better than to start questioning the Russians about their money, so we are all happy (apart from a few notable exceptions of course). Mind you the technocrats wont question anybody, their moolah is being freshly washed, starched and pressed through Luxembourg anyway, but that's another story completely.
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby BigBallinStalin on Wed Feb 20, 2013 12:29 pm

Fruitcake wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:Can't their governments and/or the ECB simply create new credit and dump it into those banks--whenever they become insolvent?

Or maybe the EU can simply buy up securities of whatever seems to be causing the problem (e.g. the Fed buying $50bn/month of MBS)?

Of course, this can't last forever, and this will make the 'end game' much more difficult and costly--but such steps may delay your 1-year prediction, right?


Yes of course they can! The problem is, they already are. This is why Bernie Madoff must be sitting there with his eyes bleeding. A Sovereign Govt props up a bank so that Bank can buy that Govt's sovereign debt, you couldn't make this stuff up! But they are doing it. Every sane person can see this will end in tears but they refuse to, or do they. In my honest opinion, see my last sentence below.

[I've read this part too]

Mind you the technocrats wont question anybody, their moolah is being freshly washed, starched and pressed through Luxembourg anyway, but that's another story completely.


Yeah, the EU government and its member governments are coordinating with their respective central banks and the investment banks as a roundabout method to monetize their debts.

I'd imagine that most of the big players--and not so much the individual cogs in the wheel--see this end coming, but unfortunately for many it seems most profitable to get out during the peak right before the collapse, as was seen in the US during 2007/2008. So, those sane people do see this end coming, but can they place the right bets at the right time during such a tumultuous time? (I doubt it).

And since these central banks (incl. the Fed) have been pushing down interest rates, they've forced many investors to chase yield; therefore, I'd expect the upcoming stage of the pending crisis to become significantly worse than it would have--had the the central banks not been so Keynesian and had the EU let Greece fully default and/or leave the EU. The rejected idea of reorganizing the Euro/EU in 2008-2009 is going to be a cakewalk compared to what lies ahead.


What annoys me the most is that the average Joe doesn't understand what their governments have been doing and the consequences of all these politicians and technocrats sticking to the most profitable path for themselves. Seeing these events unfold really add to my cynicism of government.
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby Fruitcake on Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:58 am

BigBallinStalin wrote:Yeah, the EU government and its member governments are coordinating with their respective central banks and the investment banks as a roundabout method to monetize their debts.

I'd imagine that most of the big players--and not so much the individual cogs in the wheel--see this end coming, but unfortunately for many it seems most profitable to get out during the peak right before the collapse, as was seen in the US during 2007/2008. So, those sane people do see this end coming, but can they place the right bets at the right time during such a tumultuous time? (I doubt it).

And since these central banks (incl. the Fed) have been pushing down interest rates, they've forced many investors to chase yield; therefore, I'd expect the upcoming stage of the pending crisis to become significantly worse than it would have--had the the central banks not been so Keynesian and had the EU let Greece fully default and/or leave the EU. The rejected idea of reorganizing the Euro/EU in 2008-2009 is going to be a cakewalk compared to what lies ahead.


What annoys me the most is that the average Joe doesn't understand what their governments have been doing and the consequences of all these politicians and technocrats sticking to the most profitable path for themselves. Seeing these events unfold really add to my cynicism of government.


I agree wholeheartedly. But you know BBS, sometimes principles have to be overcome in the pursuit of personal gain :) (just kidding)

Let's face it, Banks, more and more, are just Government sponsored greasers. Pretty much everyone who has access to Joe Public are, in turn, controlling the banks by providing easy access to 'free' money. However, looking at this and turning 180 degrees means a lot of Banks are actually becoming equity longs. They are changing their processes and systems and will come through a better bet than presently. Moreover, Banks, by nature, are cheats. They attract people who are susceptible to encouragement to cheat, but if the so called regulators (straight from those very Govts) are supervising (yes I'm avin a larf right?) the potential guilt over all this cheating can be neatly folded up and popped in the bottom drawer.

The rise and rise recently of equities can be traced back to these fundamentals which are going through such a sea change. Banks, as we know them, are going to change. Bonds are a mine field right now and inflation and rate increases are knocking on the door. One wonders when reality will hit Bernanke between those eyes of his and he admits the great devaluation magic he has tried to pull has failed. Yield curves are starting to get twitchy and this normally signals the arrival of a surge. I believe Equities are ripe for serious play.
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:59 pm

Fruitcake wrote:
I agree wholeheartedly. But you know BBS, sometimes principles have to be overcome in the pursuit of personal gain :) (just kidding)

Let's face it, Banks, more and more, are just Government sponsored greasers. Pretty much everyone who has access to Joe Public are, in turn, controlling the banks by providing easy access to 'free' money. However, looking at this and turning 180 degrees means a lot of Banks are actually becoming equity longs. They are changing their processes and systems and will come through a better bet than presently. Moreover, Banks, by nature, are cheats. They attract people who are susceptible to encouragement to cheat, but if the so called regulators (straight from those very Govts) are supervising (yes I'm avin a larf right?) the potential guilt over all this cheating can be neatly folded up and popped in the bottom drawer.


My 'favorite' politicians are Chris Dodd and Barney Frank. It's amusing to see the great amount that bank, lawyer, and realtor associations and their respective individuals have donated to them. Then, the Dodd-Frank Act is implemented, which will definitely ensure that the political contributors will be properly supervised. The public can now rest assured that financial markets will not misbehave because the selfless politicians have saved the day, thus preserving financial stability for future generations!

Meanwhile, Dodd is back into his career before politics: lobbying. I wonder what influence he can garner for the Motion Picture Association of America because he certainly performed well as a politician for his previous 'employers'.

The aftermath of the Libor scandal is also amusing. In a freer market, banks would be allowed to eschew corrupted benchmarks and establish/follow substitutes. The threat of leaving induces current suppliers (of Libor-esque rates) to maintain some credibility--otherwise, they lose their consumers. However, this is not the case.

Bank executives privately told the UK financial regulator, Financial Services Authority, that they'd "pull out of the panel that sets the Libor," yet the FSA warned them not to--with the implicitly understood meaning: 'otherwise, there will be consequences for you'. Good luck escaping from their hodge-podge regulations, being charged in court, and then having to settle since the benefits offset the risks and costs of a trial. A jury of one's 'peers' could certainly be informed and make the best decision during the trial. Ah, the smell of (in)justice is in the air.

    My 'favorite' event was the banks repacking those home loans, selling them to the FHA/Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac (I forget which), which in turn sells them to the Fed--of course, some banks sell directly to the Fed IIRC. How can one pass up the $45bn/month being dumped into MBS? Talk about subsidizing past, incompetent investments. This will surely induce the incompetent to now invest wisely, and also the quest for alpha continues as the interest rates on mortgages drops. It's insane that the Fed is pushing investors into seeking riskier assets; the long-term costs of future booms and busts are being ignored or improperly dismissed.

The greatest threat to the big players of business is competition, but since the competition's influence on politicians, thus legislative 'reforms', has been effectively marginalized, and that new avenues of supplying information have been curtailed--thanks to the Old Guard (Libor) being protected by the state, then it will be no surprise to see financial markets becoming more inefficient, unstable, and ultimately costly for others. Now, buyers and sellers must become more savvy--while playing a balancing act with chasing alpha.

Additionally, since the governments and central banks of the G-20 insist on avoiding budget cuts yet raising taxes, continuing deficit spending, implementing laughable laws, and engaging in competitive currency devaluation, then the future doesn't look bright. Real growth will be stymied, and the bulk of uninformed voters will be taken for a ride and then unceremoniously dumped in the river. What a wash.


Fruitcake wrote:The rise and rise recently of equities can be traced back to these fundamentals which are going through such a sea change. Banks, as we know them, are going to change. Bonds are a mine field right now and inflation and rate increases are knocking on the door. One wonders when reality will hit Bernanke between those eyes of his and he admits the great devaluation magic he has tried to pull has failed. Yield curves are starting to get twitchy and this normally signals the arrival of a surge. I believe Equities are ripe for serious play.


A significant sign of actual financial stability (thus an impending surge) would be investors retreating from reals like gold, but that has yet to greatly happen because many are concerned about the future costs of all those consequences mentioned above. But given that other higher yielding investments (ugh, like junk bonds) seem to be 'maxing out', then perhaps more investors would have little choice but to jump into equities, which is alarming...

With equities, maybe you'd be able to ride the wave shortly before the crest, but seeing that the DOW Jones is reaching an average price surpassing its 2007/2008 price, I'd be extremely cautious. But hey once the rules of the game become clarified by the regulators, then your expected surge in equities could likely occur. Then again, I'm not that knowledgeable nor do I have much experience on financial trading, so take my opinion for its perceived value.

If I had money, I'd wait for the stock markets to crash and then invest in companies (and note which executives) that regularly contribute significantly to politicians. Perhaps even following which companies politicians invest into would also be a good route. I'm not sure of this strategy's net gain since I haven't taken the time to assess the opportunity cost of either sitting on x-amount of cash for the next... year or three or five(?) or continually investing in short-term bonds (which by now I've seemed to miss the greatest opportunities)... Perhaps even eating the real (negative) interest rates of ST US treasurys may be worth the wait. In the meantime, I'll just read and write.
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Postby 2dimes on Fri Feb 22, 2013 1:23 pm

Barney Frank? Isn't that a cop from the Andy Griffith show?
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby Fruitcake on Fri Feb 22, 2013 2:31 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:
A significant sign of actual financial stability (thus an impending surge) would be investors retreating from reals like gold, but that has yet to greatly happen because many are concerned about the future costs of all those consequences mentioned above. But given that other higher yielding investments (ugh, like junk bonds) seem to be 'maxing out', then perhaps more investors would have little choice but to jump into equities, which is alarming...

With equities, maybe you'd be able to ride the wave shortly before the crest, but seeing that the DOW Jones is reaching an average price surpassing its 2007/2008 price, I'd be extremely cautious. But hey once the rules of the game become clarified by the regulators, then your expected surge in equities could likely occur. Then again, I'm not that knowledgeable nor do I have much experience on financial trading, so take my opinion for its perceived value.

If I had money, I'd wait for the stock markets to crash and then invest in companies (and note which executives) that regularly contribute significantly to politicians. Perhaps even following which companies politicians invest into would also be a good route. I'm not sure of this strategy's net gain since I haven't taken the time to assess the opportunity cost of either sitting on x-amount of cash for the next... year or three or five(?) or continually investing in short-term bonds (which by now I've seemed to miss the greatest opportunities)... Perhaps even eating the real (negative) interest rates of ST US treasurys may be worth the wait. In the meantime, I'll just read and write.


I hear you on the concerns regarding peaking in the markets. I have had my eye on a small select few stocks here in London and NY (can't be bothered with Frankfurt or Paris Bourse because I don't do small potatoes, they are only of use to those with small appetites). I believe there is going to be a spike a la 2000 and 2007 (or even 1986) except this time the spike will be higher. After all, we are only at the same levels now to where those 2000 and 2007 surges ran out of steam and we are some years on from the first. I reckon there's plenty of movement in there yet. the question is where?

Fundamentals are going to be the choicest to be around. I see quite a few of the fashionable stocks hitting the skids as realisation dawns that they are bubbles and little else. Mind you it is a worry when Goldman tells us to get into equities, this is normally a harbinger of them jumping ship and leaving the poor saps who took their advice holding the ugly baby. They are so cool about it, they just wait another 10 years until there's fresh meat around, spot the next surge then dump all over that generation, but I digress.

I still think the USD will rule for the foreseeable future. people harp on about China but I don't get this at all. China is walking headlong into some serious trade wars and thinks it is powerful enough to ride them out, I disagree. trade Unions and red tape over there are surging. I reckon they will find themselves with empty cities and minimum wage peasants again before, having finally learnt their lessons, resurging some time after I have shuffled off my mortal coil.

In short, I have a 2 year horizon on equities and will be in and out of a few while the herd stampedes in the pursuit of glory and moolah. Most of these equities hail from the west side of the pond where shale gas (ahem, note) , debt consumed by growth and that never say die attitude so prevalent even today means the mighty $ still has the muscle. As for the Euro (and finally turning this back round to my post the other day) yeah, well once those banks start hitting the walls and there's blood all over the place, let's see how much backbone they have over here, and from my experience, it ain't much!
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Feb 22, 2013 4:04 pm

On shale gas in the US, I had an interesting conversation with a commodities broker (futures contracts). He maintained that the current production is grossly inflated, in that the industry's reported numbers are overestimated--current and future figures. Regardless of changes in US export policies, he's expecting prices to be much lower than they currently are.

RE: Goldman. That kind of behavior could explain why a few of its former employees leave the company--on good terms, mind you, but something nagged them about working there. They were reluctant to be 100% clear with me, but your paragraph might fill in the unspoken gaps.

RE: China. They're bound for a bust. In addition to what you've mentioned, their entire shadow banking system--specifically where the provincial governments make roundabout, unreported loans--is dark territory. It's estimated that up to $1 trillion or more in debt outstanding. Their government is known to present very rosy economic 'facts'. Relative to the USD, the RMB has been allowed to slowly appreciate for the past 5 or so years. There's plenty of other variables which are unknown or which I'm unaware of, but all of this should temper people's enthusiasm about China. Perhaps some of them know something we don't or have the right friends there.

On the rest, good luck and happy hunting!
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Postby 2dimes on Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:14 pm

No man, that's "Fife."

Oh sorry.
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby BigBallinStalin on Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:08 am

Interview with Bernard Connolly, who in 1995 predicted the current problems of the EU.
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby saxitoxin on Fri Mar 08, 2013 8:14 pm

I had to put this Danish-talk through Google Translate so I don't know how accurate this is but, according to the newspaper of the Danish Communist Party, the Greek government has drawn-up contingency plans to bring in Blackwater troops to guard the government until their army can be mobilized, in the event of a police mutiny-

http://arbejderen.dk/udland/privat-leje ... opr%C3%B8r
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Mar 08, 2013 9:12 pm

This ideological article somewhat confirms your summary:
http://21stcenturywire.com/2013/02/26/f ... ng-police/

I'm seeing similar claims (and wild claims) from other obscure sources, but it seems that no major MS outlet has covered the story...

Blackwater (a.k.a. Academi) offers personal protection services to politicians and journalists, so...

1. What proportion of Greek politicians are being protected by Academi/other mercenaries?
2. How many Academi (and other mercenaries) are actually in Greece?

If the answers to (1) and (2) are "not many" or "a few," then this may undermine the concerns of all those articles.
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby GreecePwns on Fri Apr 05, 2013 12:57 pm

Yet another (imminent, to say the least) party split officially announced yesterday: Ex-SYRIZA leader Alavanos launches party advocating Greek euro exit

Former SYRIZA leader Alekos Alavanos officially launched his new “Plan B” party on Thursday, advocating Greece leave the euro and return to the drachma. Alavanos led SYRIZA between 2004 and 2008 but has been mostly on the political sidelines over the last few years. Over recent months, he has criticized the party he used to lead, arguing that its goal of rejecting the terms of the EU-IMF bailout but remaining in the single currency was not credible.

...

However, the leftist stressed that a return to the drachma would not in itself be a solution to Greece’s problems. “Leaving the euro is a precondition for salvation and recovery but is not enough on its own,” he said. “It is a link in the chain of transformations that have to happen, which includes economic planning, stopping payments to foreign lenders and nationalizing banks.”

Alavanos, who led SYRIZA to a 5.04 percent share of the vote in 2007, said that his new party would eschew the usual bureaucracy associated with political movements and instead harness the power of the Internet and direct democracy by operating through a “national network of assemblies, which will have decision-making powers.”


First it was Democratic Left breaking off from SYRIZA's right wing, now its Alvanos' Plan B Party breaking off from it's left wing. Eurozone membership was a cause for conflict for the SYRIZA coalition, and this new party will likely not only bring anti-Euro SYRIZA factions along (I'd estimate this being half of SYRIZA's membership), but the smaller parties outside of Parliament like ANTARSYA which could easily account for 1.5-2 percent of the electorate. It probably won't bring the KKE into the fold, but there is always that possibility considering their main sticking point with SYRIZA is the Euro membership issue, adding at least 4 percent of the electorate to its vote. I think SYRIZA is going to be a party dead in the water and replaced by Plan B by the next election as a result of this. Alavanos is no small-time politician, he's one of the most influential leaders in SYRIZA's short history.
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Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Apr 05, 2013 3:19 pm

Golden Dawn, here we come!
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