Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

[Baron Von PWN]

So what will your gov look like? SYRZIA-DL- ????

How will Syria get to 120 seats?

[GreecePwns]

They will not. They have given up the formation mandate to PASOK, who will probably do nothing with it.

99.9% chance that there is a second election next month.

[GreecePwns]

9.26pm Here are the results of a Marc poll, conducted two days after the elections and aired by Alpha TV. Syriza are still growing in power it seems, while all other parties are losing voters. the breakdown is as follows:

Syriza - 27.7 (128 seats)
New Democracy - 20.3 (57 seats)
Pasok - 12.6 (36 seats)
Independent Greeks - 10.2 (29 seats)
KKE 7 (20 seats)
Golden Dawn 5.7 (16 seats)
Democratic Left 4.9 (14 seats)

My take: This election has always been about the establishment parties vs. some sort of alternative, and because of the emergence of several breakaway parties, finding an alternative to stand up to the establishment parties was difficult. Because SYRIZA performed so well in the first election, those who were in search of any alternative to the status quo have rallied around them. It also seems that this poll did not include parties like the Greens and others outside of Parliament, so I might be wrong.

[GreecePwns]

In a last ditch effort to avoid another election, President Papoulias has called all party leaders into his office for the weekend to forge a deal for a unity government himself. ND and PASOK are actively courting Democratic Left to join in coalition with them for a government to last 2 years at the most, according to PASOK chief Venizelos.

Meanwhile, the ECB and Merkel cabinet are backing off their stringent "complete austerity or no aid" position. Merkel's Finance Minister, after near-daily comments stating that Greece must accept the terms in the Memorandum to the letter, said he was open to including measures to incentivize growth (because as we know, growing the Greek economy was not priority #1 for the troika). Both major parties have changed their stances as well, saying they would want to renegotiate the Memorandum to include growth measures as well (because as we know, growing the Greek economy was no priority #1 for them either).

[GreecePwns]

Today President Papoulias continued his role as mediator today. He invited the leaders of ND, PASOK, DL and SYRIZA to meet in his office today, but SYRIZA refused to meet. Democratic Left refused to enter government with SYRIZA joining, and ND and PASOK agreed that it is necessary for SYRIZA to join in a government committed to the Euro if is to be a legitimate one. The goal is to create a unity government to last two years, the time where European elections will be held and all the Memorandum measures will have been implemented. Tsipras responded harshly, saying he "would not like to legitimize a Memorandum the Greek people have de-legitimized." Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis said that because of this, he refuses to cooperate SYRIZA should another election occur, and that a government of the left that Tsipras wishes for is an arrogant idea.

My take on this: As you guys can see, Kouvelis has flip-flopped between supporting SYRIZA and the other two. Depending on who he's talking to he says different things. The other two parties are indeed arrogant if they believe that Tsipras will join government without even considering any of his positions. I predict that should another election take place and SYRIZA get the 50 seat bonus he will seriously consider entering a government of the left.

Papoulias then suggested to the three parties that met with him that a government of "personalities" be formed - one of technocrats and politicians with wide appeal, as Kathimerini newspaper described it.

He also met with the heads of Independent Greeks and the KKE, but no progress was made with them as expected.

Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

If nothing is resolved tomorrow we are guaranteed a second election. The most recent opinion polls averaged project the following Parliament:

SYRIZA 125
ND 59
PASOK 38
Independent Greeks 29
KKE 19
Golden Dawn 15
Democratic Left 15

SYRIZA is guaranteed at least a minority government if it can get a vote of confidence.

[saxitoxin]

Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.

[GreecePwns]

Meet Nikolaos Mihaloliakos, the head of Golden Dawn

[Fruitcake]

Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.

Betting on a Euro slide already has been a bargain hunters dream, Not only that, betting on the break up has been the same. Sold some sizeable market bets today to Paddy Power that I took out last year at at mind numbingly huge odds on the Euro breaking up ...the price then was quite breathtaking, I truly thought all my Christmases had come at once. Phoned my account Manager yesterday evening late and offered them to him at a tenth of the risk price (so ten times the cost price), he was on it first thing this morning and I see they are now offering severe odds on the Euro break up by 2015! Played the hedge by taking a position on Intrade but it's small potatoes now. The best the markets have to offer is even money a country will announce exit from the Euro by December 31 this year. They wont even take bets on Greece leaving the system any more, it has become what the betting population like to call a 'dead cert'.

To listen to the Eurocrats promising that this would never happen is amusing to any one with a smidgen of intelligence. Once again we are seeing the pygmy Political classes being well and truly crushed by the market forces and long may it last. Hopefully the momentum building in Europe will send this present bunch of smug, self opinionated, self satisfied wankers into oblivion once and for all. Greece should take the pain, get the hell out of Dodge and leave the Bondholders to pick up the pieces...the German/French axis can't abide that thought as most of those toxic bonds are held by their institutions now anyway with those nasty verminous Anglo Saxon bunch having dumped their exposures to the Euro zone banking groups some time ago. With a bit of luck Spain will stop creaking soon and start splitting wide open...then watch every one run for the hills.

Last year I started posting rates of sovereign bonds somewhere in this forum, can't be bothered to find them now, but if you go back there and see what was on offer back then compared to now it will shock you how bad things have become. Greece now has to pay an eye watering 24%+ on its ten year bonds...this ain't never going to happen so collapse is well and truly factored in.

[saxitoxin]

Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.

Betting on a Euro slide already has been a bargain hunters dream, Not only that, betting on the break up has been the same. Sold some sizeable market bets today to Paddy Power that I took out last year at at mind numbingly huge odds on the Euro breaking up ...the price then was quite breathtaking, I truly thought all my Christmases had come at once. Phoned my account Manager yesterday evening late and offered them to him at a tenth of the risk price (so ten times the cost price), he was on it first thing this morning and I see they are now offering severe odds on the Euro break up by 2015! Played the hedge by taking a position on Intrade but it's small potatoes now. The best the markets have to offer is even money a country will announce exit from the Euro by December 31 this year. They wont even take bets on Greece leaving the system any more, it has become what the betting population like to call a 'dead cert'.

To listen to the Eurocrats promising that this would never happen is amusing to any one with a smidgen of intelligence. Once again we are seeing the pygmy Political classes being well and truly crushed by the market forces and long may it last. Hopefully the momentum building in Europe will send this present bunch of smug, self opinionated, self satisfied wankers into oblivion once and for all. Greece should take the pain, get the hell out of Dodge and leave the Bondholders to pick up the pieces...the German/French axis can't abide that thought as most of those toxic bonds are held by their institutions now anyway with those nasty verminous Anglo Saxon bunch having dumped their exposures to the Euro zone banking groups some time ago. With a bit of luck Spain will stop creaking soon and start splitting wide open...then watch every one run for the hills.

Last year I started posting rates of sovereign bonds somewhere in this forum, can't be bothered to find them now, but if you go back there and see what was on offer back then compared to now it will shock you how bad things have become. Greece now has to pay an eye watering 24%+ on its ten year bonds...this ain't never going to happen so collapse is well and truly factored in.

Well, Mr. Doom & Gloom, "a senior executive at a large Greek bank told Reuters: 'There is no bank run, no queues or panic. The situation is better than I expected.'"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/ ... me=topNews

[saxitoxin]

[GreecePwns]

600m Euros were withdrawn yesterday, compared to 8 billion the few days after Greece received its first bailout

[thegreekdog]

Meet Nikolaos Mihaloliakos, the head of Golden Dawn

I don't understand how a Greek person can not condemn Hitler, who not only invaded Greece but was instrumental in the killing of Greeks in concentration camps.

Also, the interviewer was awesome. I wish we had people like that here.

[Phatscotty]

Time to start printing money! "but but, we have to! It's an emergency!!!!!"

RUN ON THE BANKS IN GREECE!


Greece, we beg you! Embrace similar principles to the Tea Party in America and you can save your country. It's not going to be easy, but you know more than anyone else just how great the times were while the money was being spent and the debt was being racked up. Please do the responsible thing. The world is watching! Don't take any more bailouts! I wish yall didn't take the first one, and definitely not the second one! It's never to late too do the right thing.

The only thing we seem to be able to learn from history, is that we don't learn anything from our history.

This is just more evidence that America should be more like "the rest of the civilized world" especially concerning Universal Health Care.

[GreecePwns]

Actually there is no run on the banks in Greece, but thanks for your input. I'll keep it on file for the next 6 months in case any openings are available.

An opinion poll released this morning shows that a SYRIZA-Democratic Left anti-bailout coalition is almost possible, and that if that does not work, SYRIZA can rule as a minority government. The poll predicts the following parliament:

SYRIZA 124
ND 65
PASOK 47
Independent Greeks 25
KKE 19
Democratic Left 19
Golden Dawn 19

[saxitoxin]

Meet Nikolaos Mihaloliakos, the head of Golden Dawn

If I put my hand over the bottom of the screen so I can't see the sub-titles it sounds and looks like the men behind the counter at any Greek deli in NY yelling at each other as they are wont to do. I've always wondered what they were arguing so emphatically about. Now I know ... HITLER!