Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

\\OFF-TOPIC// conversations about everything that has nothing to do with Conquer Club.

Moderators: Community Team, Global Moderators

Forum rules
Please read the Community Guidelines before posting.

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby patches70 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 12:39 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:
patches70 wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:
Let's go back to the beginning, when this crisis with Greece hit mainstream news. If you were a central banker with perfect control over the EU's monetary policy, what would you have done?


What an odd question. Tell me, BBS, if you were a central banker with perfect control over the EU's monetary policy, what would you have done when the Greek crisis hit the mainstream news?


I've no idea because I don't know what all my possible choices would be.


Don't know the choices? You have "perfect control". I take that to mean if you wanted you could print money and just give it to each and every Greek citizen. You can do anything that you could possibly imagine.

Now start imagining and tell me what you'd do.

Hint: Don't be unnerved by your inability to come up with a way to solve a problem that has no solution in regards to CB monetary policy. There is only one real solution, nations just have to stop borrowing and spend less than they take in with the excess going to paying down their debts. In fact, any possible solution you could come up with from the CB's point of view will only make matters worse. Unless, of course, the unthinkable were done. Debt forgiveness. Of course, that in itself has certain pitfalls which I'm sure you are aware of.
Corporal patches70
 
Posts: 634
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:44 pm
Medals: 2
Standard Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (1)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jul 24, 2012 12:48 pm

I would have probably given out the same loans, but instead of attaching conditions that answered problems that weren't there, I would have attached two condition: end tax evasion and balance your budget (but, as I've said before, no tax evasion would've led to a surplus anyway).

The rest was an unnecessary power grab.
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
User avatar
Corporal GreecePwns
 
Posts: 2654
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Lawn Guy Lint
Medals: 10
Standard Achievement (2) Terminator Achievement (1) Assassin Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (3)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby patches70 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 2:10 pm

Applies equally well to government officials, EU bankers and keynesian economists who all delay and pray....

Image
Corporal patches70
 
Posts: 634
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:44 pm
Medals: 2
Standard Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (1)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby BigBallinStalin on Tue Jul 24, 2012 4:58 pm

patches70 wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:
patches70 wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:
Let's go back to the beginning, when this crisis with Greece hit mainstream news. If you were a central banker with perfect control over the EU's monetary policy, what would you have done?


What an odd question. Tell me, BBS, if you were a central banker with perfect control over the EU's monetary policy, what would you have done when the Greek crisis hit the mainstream news?


I've no idea because I don't know what all my possible choices would be.


Don't know the choices? You have "perfect control". I take that to mean if you wanted you could print money and just give it to each and every Greek citizen. You can do anything that you could possibly imagine.

Now start imagining and tell me what you'd do.

Hint: Don't be unnerved by your inability to come up with a way to solve a problem that has no solution in regards to CB monetary policy. There is only one real solution, nations just have to stop borrowing and spend less than they take in with the excess going to paying down their debts. In fact, any possible solution you could come up with from the CB's point of view will only make matters worse. Unless, of course, the unthinkable were done. Debt forgiveness. Of course, that in itself has certain pitfalls which I'm sure you are aware of.


"Perfect control" meaning I can implement any policy I want, and my policy would somehow be extremely effective. "I don't know what all my possible choices would be" because I don't know enough about monetary policy to make a wise decision, so I can't really answer the question with much credibility.

The problem is that I agree with the Austrian economics viewpoint, which is long-term. However, it's difficult to implement these policies in the short-term and in this scenario because everything is so tightly knit. For example,

(1) Greece receives no bailouts, no adjustments on its interests rates, nothing. And the banks which invested in Greece will eat their own costs (as they should; otherwise, they'll never be capable of learning to be more cautious).

What would happen?

Greece:
Most likely, the economy in Greece would suffer even more so (and like Fruitcake, I believe this to be true because Greece has yet to hit rock-bottom). If the collapse is beyond the management of their government, then it would reduce the costs for anyone attempting a coup d'etat. It's a possibility of unknown certainty, but is the risk worth it? I'm not sure.

EU:
From what I've heard, if Greece goes, then so does the Euro--unless I could somehow kick off Greece from the EU monetary list (i.e. the Greek economy would no longer be based on the Euro--officially).


(2) Greece gets bailed out, and the risks and costs are reduced (significantly? it can't be known with good enough certainty). Then, the principal-agent problem of investors dropping money into bad investments (e.g. Greece) will continue, thus increasing the costs of future potential problems in the long-run. It also gives the monetary policymakers and politicians more time to "fix" the problem.


The Austrian viewpoint is that the state can't have a monopoly on the legal tender within a country--only the individuals in the market can decide on which currencies to use within any given area. So, the legitimacy of money would be based on voluntary exchanges (as oppose to the use of US dollars in the US, Euros in the EU, etc.). This would likely return to the use of gold and other hard currencies as a medium of exchange. Paper money would be allowed, but then the issue revolves around 100% reserves or allowing fractional reserve banking, which is partially responsible for the magnitude of business cycles. The party which is most responsible for causing business cycles is a central bank and its legal power to adjust the base/real interest rate within its jurisdiction. For an Austrian economy, the real rate of interest would be determined by interactions within the market, and would be based on the knowledge and incentives of non-government agents.

So, if I wanted to implement an Austrian approach to the crisis, I'd do nothing for Greece, yet allow private agents to do whatever they wanted in Greece. Then I'd abolish the ECB in incremental steps to allow people to adopt any legal tender of their choosing.
User avatar
Colonel BigBallinStalin
 
Posts: 4514
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2008 10:23 pm
Location: crying into the dregs of an empty bottle of own-brand scotch on the toilet having a dump in Dagenham
Medals: 48
Standard Achievement (3) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (3) Terminator Achievement (1)
Manual Troops Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Nuclear Spoils Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (4) Trench Warfare Achievement (1)
Teammate Achievement (2) Random Map Achievement (1) Cross-Map Achievement (3) Beta Map Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (4)
Tournament Achievement (5) General Achievement (1) Clan Achievement (10)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby BigBallinStalin on Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:03 pm

GreecePwns wrote:I would have probably given out the same loans, but instead of attaching conditions that answered problems that weren't there, I would have attached two condition: end tax evasion and balance your budget (but, as I've said before, no tax evasion would've led to a surplus anyway).

The rest was an unnecessary power grab.


Those are great conditions, but the problem of the effectiveness in enforcing these conditions remain. And, there's also the problem of vested interests of the policymakers, implementers, and politicians, whose self-interest will determine the real intentions of such conditions. For example, I could say, "yeah, end tax evasion, and balance your budget," but I might not really mean it. Or, I could mean it, but I could set a time-limit which would reduce the need to abide by the conditions (say, "indefinitely, or 5 years, then push it back to 10 years). (This is similar to the scenario of the US "pulling" out of Afghanistan and Iraq).

In other words, if you're the one making the rules, you have very little incentive to enforce yourself to abide by the rules. You'll enforce them to suit your own convenience, and in such complex scenarios, you can easily shift blame to others.
User avatar
Colonel BigBallinStalin
 
Posts: 4514
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2008 10:23 pm
Location: crying into the dregs of an empty bottle of own-brand scotch on the toilet having a dump in Dagenham
Medals: 48
Standard Achievement (3) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (3) Terminator Achievement (1)
Manual Troops Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Nuclear Spoils Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (4) Trench Warfare Achievement (1)
Teammate Achievement (2) Random Map Achievement (1) Cross-Map Achievement (3) Beta Map Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (4)
Tournament Achievement (5) General Achievement (1) Clan Achievement (10)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby Phatscotty on Tue Jul 24, 2012 6:54 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:
patches70 wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:
Let's go back to the beginning, when this crisis with Greece hit mainstream news. If you were a central banker with perfect control over the EU's monetary policy, what would you have done?


What an odd question. Tell me, BBS, if you were a central banker with perfect control over the EU's monetary policy, what would you have done when the Greek crisis hit the mainstream news?


I've no idea because I don't know what all my possible choices would be.


I can answer!

I would not have bailed them out! I would have said "Greece spent the money, Greece promised to pay it back, and we will wait for that payment. There will be no bailouts, which would only lead to more bailouts. All Greece needs to do is cut spending. If they continue to be greedy and selfish, then they will suffer the consequences of their greed and selfishness. If they do the right thing, then we will know they are ready for our help and we can pitch in a little, but NO BAILOUTS PERIOD!"
"I want you to remember that, to remind you to stay out of my way. In all the years to come, in all your most private moments, I want you to remember my hand at your throat. I want you to remember the one man who beat you."
User avatar
Colonel Phatscotty
SoC Training Adviser
 
Posts: 2291
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2007 5:50 pm
Medals: 91
Standard Achievement (4) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (4) Terminator Achievement (2)
Assassin Achievement (1) Manual Troops Achievement (4) Freestyle Achievement (2) Polymorphic Achievement (1) Nuclear Spoils Achievement (3)
Fog of War Achievement (4) Trench Warfare Achievement (3) Speed Achievement (3) Teammate Achievement (3) Random Map Achievement (2)
Cross-Map Achievement (3) Beta Map Achievement (2) Battle Royale Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (4) Tournament Achievement (5)
General Achievement (2) Clan Achievement (10) Training Achievement (6) Challenge Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (13)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:05 pm

[Insert BBS post about unintended consequences]
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
User avatar
Corporal GreecePwns
 
Posts: 2654
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Lawn Guy Lint
Medals: 10
Standard Achievement (2) Terminator Achievement (1) Assassin Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (3)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby Phatscotty on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:10 pm

GreecePwns wrote:[Insert BBS post about unintended consequences]


If that is aimed at my post, then I will just remind you that not being able to spend money you don't have is not an unintended consequence. Paying for what they spent in the past is always an intended consequence, otherwise the people probably would have never borrowed them the money! :lol:
"I want you to remember that, to remind you to stay out of my way. In all the years to come, in all your most private moments, I want you to remember my hand at your throat. I want you to remember the one man who beat you."
User avatar
Colonel Phatscotty
SoC Training Adviser
 
Posts: 2291
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2007 5:50 pm
Medals: 91
Standard Achievement (4) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (4) Terminator Achievement (2)
Assassin Achievement (1) Manual Troops Achievement (4) Freestyle Achievement (2) Polymorphic Achievement (1) Nuclear Spoils Achievement (3)
Fog of War Achievement (4) Trench Warfare Achievement (3) Speed Achievement (3) Teammate Achievement (3) Random Map Achievement (2)
Cross-Map Achievement (3) Beta Map Achievement (2) Battle Royale Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (4) Tournament Achievement (5)
General Achievement (2) Clan Achievement (10) Training Achievement (6) Challenge Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (13)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:14 pm

Alright, if you're head of the ECB and you purposefully lead the Euro to collapse in the most nuclear way possible, odds are you are going to end up in jail.

Not lending the money would be a slap in the face that leads to Greece leaving the Euro, and the Italy and Spain following after. At that point there's no reason for any nation to hold onto a dying currency. Good job, Phatscotty. You've led all of Europe into unprecedented economic meltdown.

Game over, insert $.25 for 1 credit.
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
User avatar
Corporal GreecePwns
 
Posts: 2654
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Lawn Guy Lint
Medals: 10
Standard Achievement (2) Terminator Achievement (1) Assassin Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (3)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby Fruitcake on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:17 pm

I would have never have allowed this bloody awful set of politically driven circumstances to get going in the first place. The Euro was a complete fudge and should not have happened the way it did. So in answer to the question about 'perfect control', I would not have allowed it to happen, so the present problem would not now exist.
Image

Due to current economic conditions the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off
User avatar
Colonel Fruitcake
 
Posts: 2180
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:38 am
Medals: 20
Standard Achievement (2) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Teammate Achievement (2) Cross-Map Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (3) General Achievement (1)
Clan Achievement (2)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby Phatscotty on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:23 pm

GreecePwns wrote:Alright, if you're head of the ECB and you purposefully lead the Euro to collapse in the most nuclear way possible, odds are you are going to end up in jail.

Not lending the money would be a slap in the face that leads to Greece leaving the Euro, and the Italy and Spain following after. At that point there's no reason for any nation to hold onto a dying currency. Good job, Phatscotty. You've led all of Europe into unprecedented economic meltdown.

Game over, insert $.25 for 1 credit.


I disagree, but only about the going to jail part. Any person who purposefully collapses the Euro will find they have earned themselves a spot in Soros Heaven.

Also, your bit about blackmailing or Greece threatening to leave the Euro if they don't get other peoples money.....I would say "GOOD FUCKING RIDDANCE!!!!!!!!!!!" Gee, I wonder what will happen the next time Greece spends more that they are supposed to? Just thug it up again!

JB, I hate to break it to you, but EUROPE ISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS IN AN UNPRECEDENTED MELTDOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

what a fucking joke man! :lol: :lol: :lol: Serious! My jaw hasn't hurt like this for at least 3 days!
"I want you to remember that, to remind you to stay out of my way. In all the years to come, in all your most private moments, I want you to remember my hand at your throat. I want you to remember the one man who beat you."
User avatar
Colonel Phatscotty
SoC Training Adviser
 
Posts: 2291
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2007 5:50 pm
Medals: 91
Standard Achievement (4) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (4) Terminator Achievement (2)
Assassin Achievement (1) Manual Troops Achievement (4) Freestyle Achievement (2) Polymorphic Achievement (1) Nuclear Spoils Achievement (3)
Fog of War Achievement (4) Trench Warfare Achievement (3) Speed Achievement (3) Teammate Achievement (3) Random Map Achievement (2)
Cross-Map Achievement (3) Beta Map Achievement (2) Battle Royale Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (4) Tournament Achievement (5)
General Achievement (2) Clan Achievement (10) Training Achievement (6) Challenge Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (13)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:31 pm

Honestly, this is the third time in this thread you're trying to turn this into a spending thing and only a spending thing.

I'm done talking to you about this. I slapped you around on this subject twice before. Just read the fucking thread man. You honestly have no clue what you're talking about. At all.
Last edited by GreecePwns on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
User avatar
Corporal GreecePwns
 
Posts: 2654
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Lawn Guy Lint
Medals: 10
Standard Achievement (2) Terminator Achievement (1) Assassin Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (3)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby Fruitcake on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:34 pm

GreecePwns wrote:Alright, if you're head of the ECB and you purposefully lead the Euro to collapse in the most nuclear way possible, odds are you are going to end up in jail.

Not lending the money would be a slap in the face that leads to Greece leaving the Euro, and the Italy and Spain following after. At that point there's no reason for any nation to hold onto a dying currency. Good job, Phatscotty. You've led all of Europe into unprecedented economic meltdown.

Game over, insert $.25 for 1 credit.


Taking each point in turn:

if you're head of the ECB and you purposefully lead the Euro to collapse in the most nuclear way possible, odds are you are going to end up in jail.
Yer avin a larf aintcha...this is what the markets are doing to the Euro (in its present form) anyway. The head of the ECB is in no position to take on the markets, it has been tried numerous times over the last century and every time the market wins.

Not lending the money would be a slap in the face that leads to Greece leaving the Euro, and the Italy and Spain following after. At that point there's no reason for any nation to hold onto a dying currency. Good job, Phatscotty. You've led all of Europe into unprecedented economic meltdown.
Actually that's simplifying matters a tad. Not lending money to Greece would be have to be tied to a withdrawal from the present mechanism. A new Drachma is created, allowed to float, immediately devalues by 50% which would actually hurt the bankers more than anyone...well actually the central bankers who are the lapdogs of their political masters so who really gives a shite anyway. The Euro rises in value.

Ramifications to Greece? They suffer a jump in imported inflation, turn to home made goods for a couple of years while they reconstruct, export like crazy because their goods are so cheap, rebalance their economy and ease back into the mainstream. This isn't rocket science.

Winners overall? Greece, and the Greek people. Losers overall? The Germans

Now ask yourself why this isn't happening.
Image

Due to current economic conditions the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off
User avatar
Colonel Fruitcake
 
Posts: 2180
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:38 am
Medals: 20
Standard Achievement (2) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Teammate Achievement (2) Cross-Map Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (3) General Achievement (1)
Clan Achievement (2)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:40 pm

End up in jail was a bit far. But if you're head of the ECB odds are that ending the ECB isn't really a choice. Then again they did say "perfect control."

What you're describing isn't happening because mainstream Greek politicians have a history of bowing to their overlords at NATO and the Bundestag (just look at the Libyan invasion). Anyway, a Greek exit would most certainly move speculation onto Italy and Spain, which are much larger economies and whose exits would most certainly kill the Euro once and for all, don't you think?
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
User avatar
Corporal GreecePwns
 
Posts: 2654
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Lawn Guy Lint
Medals: 10
Standard Achievement (2) Terminator Achievement (1) Assassin Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (3)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby Fruitcake on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:49 pm

GreecePwns wrote:End up in jail was a bit far. But if you're head of the ECB odds are that ending the ECB isn't really a choice. Then again they did say "perfect control."

What you're describing isn't happening because mainstream Greek politicians have a history of bowing to their overlords at NATO and the Bundestag (just look at the Libyan invasion). Anyway, a Greek exit would most certainly move speculation onto Italy and Spain, which are much larger economies and whose exits would most certainly kill the Euro once and for all, don't you think?


Actually I think the Euro would be stronger if the Med countries had an orderly exit. They arrived in the club at crazy conversion rates so it would come as no surprise to see them exit the same way.

We must never forget that most financial experts (who weren't afraid of voicing an opinion) said this would end up as a dog's breakfast from the get go. Spain could cause a problem in terms of size of economy, but it can be done. The problems now are that this Euro tripe has been forced down the throats of the populace to the point they also believe it would be an insult. So where does that leave us? Simply that this needs to be managed in such a way that the lid is kept on emotions...which is pretty much what is happening. Surely you can read between the lines? This process has been so inexorable and yet at a pace slower than crippled snail. the alternative does not bear thinking about...fault lines fracturing the EU itself.

As for Greek politicians and their attitudes. Sadly this kind of venal behaviour is pretty much standard across the political class in the west...but don't get me started on that chestnut!
Image

Due to current economic conditions the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off
User avatar
Colonel Fruitcake
 
Posts: 2180
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:38 am
Medals: 20
Standard Achievement (2) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Teammate Achievement (2) Cross-Map Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (3) General Achievement (1)
Clan Achievement (2)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby patches70 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:51 pm

Fruitcake wrote:Not lending the money would be a slap in the face that leads to Greece leaving the Euro, and the Italy and Spain following after. At that point there's no reason for any nation to hold onto a dying currency. Good job, Phatscotty. You've led all of Europe into unprecedented economic meltdown.
Actually that's simplifying matters a tad. Not lending money to Greece would be have to be tied to a withdrawal from the present mechanism. A new Drachma is created, allowed to float, immediately devalues by 50% which would actually hurt the bankers more than anyone...well actually the central bankers who are the lapdogs of their political masters so who really gives a shite anyway. The Euro rises in value.

Ramifications to Greece? They suffer a jump in imported inflation, turn to home made goods for a couple of years while they reconstruct, export like crazy because their goods are so cheap, rebalance their economy and ease back into the mainstream. This isn't rocket science.

Winners overall? Greece, and the Greek people. Losers overall? The Germans

Now ask yourself why this isn't happening.



Exactly. It'll be a bitter pill to swallow in the short run, but in the long run Greece can take control of their own affairs and start on a true path healing (economically speaking).

Right now, Greece is insolvent. No amount of lending to them is going to change that. They'll default eventually. For a long time the EU has been kicking the can down the road. Now instead of kicking the can they've been stomping on it.

The end result is going to be the same. Greece defaults (because they are insolvent), leave the Euro, the return of the Drachma which is immediately devalued and the Greek people pick themselves up and start working their way out of the mess. But at least that way they'll be out from under the thumb of the ECB and the other EU nations who are poised to pillage the hell out of the country.
And all those people who have been saying that Greek bonds are the slam dunk trade of the year get taken to the cleaners.
Corporal patches70
 
Posts: 634
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:44 pm
Medals: 2
Standard Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (1)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby Phatscotty on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:56 pm

patches70 wrote:
Fruitcake wrote:Not lending the money would be a slap in the face that leads to Greece leaving the Euro, and the Italy and Spain following after. At that point there's no reason for any nation to hold onto a dying currency. Good job, Phatscotty. You've led all of Europe into unprecedented economic meltdown.
Actually that's simplifying matters a tad. Not lending money to Greece would be have to be tied to a withdrawal from the present mechanism. A new Drachma is created, allowed to float, immediately devalues by 50% which would actually hurt the bankers more than anyone...well actually the central bankers who are the lapdogs of their political masters so who really gives a shite anyway. The Euro rises in value.

Ramifications to Greece? They suffer a jump in imported inflation, turn to home made goods for a couple of years while they reconstruct, export like crazy because their goods are so cheap, rebalance their economy and ease back into the mainstream. This isn't rocket science.

Winners overall? Greece, and the Greek people. Losers overall? The Germans

Now ask yourself why this isn't happening.



Exactly. It'll be a bitter pill to swallow in the short run, but in the long run Greece can take control of their own affairs and start on a true path healing (economically speaking).

Right now, Greece is insolvent. No amount of lending to them is going to change that. They'll default eventually. For a long time the EU has been kicking the can down the road. Now instead of kicking the can they've been stomping on it.

The end result is going to be the same. Greece defaults (because they are insolvent), leave the Euro, the return of the Drachma which is immediately devalued and the Greek people pick themselves up and start working their way out of the mess. But at least that way they'll be out from under the thumb of the ECB and the other EU nations who are poised to pillage the hell out of the country.
And all those people who have been saying that Greek bonds are the slam dunk trade of the year get taken to the cleaners.


Please fix your post patches. I could not live with myself if I had Fruitcake talking to me that way! GP congratulated me
"I want you to remember that, to remind you to stay out of my way. In all the years to come, in all your most private moments, I want you to remember my hand at your throat. I want you to remember the one man who beat you."
User avatar
Colonel Phatscotty
SoC Training Adviser
 
Posts: 2291
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2007 5:50 pm
Medals: 91
Standard Achievement (4) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (4) Terminator Achievement (2)
Assassin Achievement (1) Manual Troops Achievement (4) Freestyle Achievement (2) Polymorphic Achievement (1) Nuclear Spoils Achievement (3)
Fog of War Achievement (4) Trench Warfare Achievement (3) Speed Achievement (3) Teammate Achievement (3) Random Map Achievement (2)
Cross-Map Achievement (3) Beta Map Achievement (2) Battle Royale Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (4) Tournament Achievement (5)
General Achievement (2) Clan Achievement (10) Training Achievement (6) Challenge Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (13)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby Phatscotty on Tue Jul 24, 2012 7:59 pm

GreecePwns wrote:Honestly, this is the third time in this thread you're trying to turn this into a spending thing and only a spending thing.

I'm done talking to you about this. I slapped you around on this subject twice before. Just read the fucking thread man. You honestly have no clue what you're talking about. At all.


Denial til the very end. I have never expected anything else. I only hope other people reading are getting a good whiff of what happens when the government grows too large, spends too much, and carries too much debt, as well as making highly incorrect bets about their future. Much in the same way Obamacare is supposed to be affordable...but what happens when the economy tanks?

:-k :-k :-k :-k :-k :-k :-k :-k
"I want you to remember that, to remind you to stay out of my way. In all the years to come, in all your most private moments, I want you to remember my hand at your throat. I want you to remember the one man who beat you."
User avatar
Colonel Phatscotty
SoC Training Adviser
 
Posts: 2291
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2007 5:50 pm
Medals: 91
Standard Achievement (4) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (4) Terminator Achievement (2)
Assassin Achievement (1) Manual Troops Achievement (4) Freestyle Achievement (2) Polymorphic Achievement (1) Nuclear Spoils Achievement (3)
Fog of War Achievement (4) Trench Warfare Achievement (3) Speed Achievement (3) Teammate Achievement (3) Random Map Achievement (2)
Cross-Map Achievement (3) Beta Map Achievement (2) Battle Royale Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (4) Tournament Achievement (5)
General Achievement (2) Clan Achievement (10) Training Achievement (6) Challenge Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (13)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:00 pm

patches70 wrote:
Fruitcake wrote:Not lending the money would be a slap in the face that leads to Greece leaving the Euro, and the Italy and Spain following after. At that point there's no reason for any nation to hold onto a dying currency. Good job, Phatscotty. You've led all of Europe into unprecedented economic meltdown.
Actually that's simplifying matters a tad. Not lending money to Greece would be have to be tied to a withdrawal from the present mechanism. A new Drachma is created, allowed to float, immediately devalues by 50% which would actually hurt the bankers more than anyone...well actually the central bankers who are the lapdogs of their political masters so who really gives a shite anyway. The Euro rises in value.

Ramifications to Greece? They suffer a jump in imported inflation, turn to home made goods for a couple of years while they reconstruct, export like crazy because their goods are so cheap, rebalance their economy and ease back into the mainstream. This isn't rocket science.

Winners overall? Greece, and the Greek people. Losers overall? The Germans

Now ask yourself why this isn't happening.



Exactly. It'll be a bitter pill to swallow in the short run, but in the long run Greece can take control of their own affairs and start on a true path healing (economically speaking).

Right now, Greece is insolvent. No amount of lending to them is going to change that. They'll default eventually. For a long time the EU has been kicking the can down the road. Now instead of kicking the can they've been stomping on it.

The end result is going to be the same. Greece defaults (because they are insolvent), leave the Euro, the return of the Drachma which is immediately devalued and the Greek people pick themselves up and start working their way out of the mess. But at least that way they'll be out from under the thumb of the ECB and the other EU nations who are poised to pillage the hell out of the country.
And all those people who have been saying that Greek bonds are the slam dunk trade of the year get taken to the cleaners.
I agree with all of this.
Last edited by GreecePwns on Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
User avatar
Corporal GreecePwns
 
Posts: 2654
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Lawn Guy Lint
Medals: 10
Standard Achievement (2) Terminator Achievement (1) Assassin Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (3)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby Phatscotty on Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:01 pm

GreecePwns wrote:
patches70 wrote:
Fruitcake wrote:Not lending the money would be a slap in the face that leads to Greece leaving the Euro, and the Italy and Spain following after. At that point there's no reason for any nation to hold onto a dying currency. Good job, Phatscotty. You've led all of Europe into unprecedented economic meltdown.
Actually that's simplifying matters a tad. Not lending money to Greece would be have to be tied to a withdrawal from the present mechanism. A new Drachma is created, allowed to float, immediately devalues by 50% which would actually hurt the bankers more than anyone...well actually the central bankers who are the lapdogs of their political masters so who really gives a shite anyway. The Euro rises in value.

Ramifications to Greece? They suffer a jump in imported inflation, turn to home made goods for a couple of years while they reconstruct, export like crazy because their goods are so cheap, rebalance their economy and ease back into the mainstream. This isn't rocket science.

Winners overall? Greece, and the Greek people. Losers overall? The Germans

Now ask yourself why this isn't happening.



Exactly. It'll be a bitter pill to swallow in the short run, but in the long run Greece can take control of their own affairs and start on a true path healing (economically speaking).

Right now, Greece is insolvent. No amount of lending to them is going to change that. They'll default eventually. For a long time the EU has been kicking the can down the road. Now instead of kicking the can they've been stomping on it.

The end result is going to be the same. Greece defaults (because they are insolvent), leave the Euro, the return of the Drachma which is immediately devalued and the Greek people pick themselves up and start working their way out of the mess. But at least that way they'll be out from under the thumb of the ECB and the other EU nations who are poised to pillage the hell out of the country.
And all those people who have been saying that Greek bonds are the slam dunk trade of the year get taken to the cleaners.
I agree with all of this.


So do I
"I want you to remember that, to remind you to stay out of my way. In all the years to come, in all your most private moments, I want you to remember my hand at your throat. I want you to remember the one man who beat you."
User avatar
Colonel Phatscotty
SoC Training Adviser
 
Posts: 2291
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2007 5:50 pm
Medals: 91
Standard Achievement (4) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (4) Terminator Achievement (2)
Assassin Achievement (1) Manual Troops Achievement (4) Freestyle Achievement (2) Polymorphic Achievement (1) Nuclear Spoils Achievement (3)
Fog of War Achievement (4) Trench Warfare Achievement (3) Speed Achievement (3) Teammate Achievement (3) Random Map Achievement (2)
Cross-Map Achievement (3) Beta Map Achievement (2) Battle Royale Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (4) Tournament Achievement (5)
General Achievement (2) Clan Achievement (10) Training Achievement (6) Challenge Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (13)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:06 pm

GreecePwns wrote:
patches70 wrote:
Fruitcake wrote:Not lending the money would be a slap in the face that leads to Greece leaving the Euro, and the Italy and Spain following after. At that point there's no reason for any nation to hold onto a dying currency. Good job, Phatscotty. You've led all of Europe into unprecedented economic meltdown.
Actually that's simplifying matters a tad. Not lending money to Greece would be have to be tied to a withdrawal from the present mechanism. A new Drachma is created, allowed to float, immediately devalues by 50% which would actually hurt the bankers more than anyone...well actually the central bankers who are the lapdogs of their political masters so who really gives a shite anyway. The Euro rises in value.

Ramifications to Greece? They suffer a jump in imported inflation, turn to home made goods for a couple of years while they reconstruct, export like crazy because their goods are so cheap, rebalance their economy and ease back into the mainstream. This isn't rocket science.

Winners overall? Greece, and the Greek people. Losers overall? The Germans

Now ask yourself why this isn't happening.



Exactly. It'll be a bitter pill to swallow in the short run, but in the long run Greece can take control of their own affairs and start on a true path healing (economically speaking).

Right now, Greece is insolvent. No amount of lending to them is going to change that. They'll default eventually. For a long time the EU has been kicking the can down the road. Now instead of kicking the can they've been stomping on it.

The end result is going to be the same. Greece defaults (because they are insolvent), leave the Euro, the return of the Drachma which is immediately devalued and the Greek people pick themselves up and start working their way out of the mess. But at least that way they'll be out from under the thumb of the ECB and the other EU nations who are poised to pillage the hell out of the country.
And all those people who have been saying that Greek bonds are the slam dunk trade of the year get taken to the cleaners.
I agree with all of this.
Of course the question was what I would do as leader of the ECB. I couldn't kick Greece out of the Euro, because a country can only leave on its own. I couldn't take the ECB down, because my job would require me to keep my own position.

In a perfect world, the above would happen. The reality is that it wasn't ever going to, and my proposal and conditions attached to the loans reflected these realities of the situation. Delay the inevitable? I don't think so, in the case of Greece at least. The other countries have different problems than Greek government, whose problems are brought on by institutional causes instead of purely financial causes.
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
User avatar
Corporal GreecePwns
 
Posts: 2654
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Lawn Guy Lint
Medals: 10
Standard Achievement (2) Terminator Achievement (1) Assassin Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (3)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby BigBallinStalin on Wed Jul 25, 2012 1:12 pm

Fruitcake wrote:I would have never have allowed this bloody awful set of politically driven circumstances to get going in the first place. The Euro was a complete fudge and should not have happened the way it did. So in answer to the question about 'perfect control', I would not have allowed it to happen, so the present problem would not now exist.


That's the problem with Austrian economics or similar approaches for these policy debates.

People have already set themselves into a trajectory from which they can't leave without incurring tremendous costs, and there's no incremental and easy way to wean people away from such serious mistakes. Therefore, no politicians and policymaker wishes to adopt an Austrian/similar approach to their economic policies.
User avatar
Colonel BigBallinStalin
 
Posts: 4514
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2008 10:23 pm
Location: crying into the dregs of an empty bottle of own-brand scotch on the toilet having a dump in Dagenham
Medals: 48
Standard Achievement (3) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (3) Terminator Achievement (1)
Manual Troops Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Nuclear Spoils Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (4) Trench Warfare Achievement (1)
Teammate Achievement (2) Random Map Achievement (1) Cross-Map Achievement (3) Beta Map Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (4)
Tournament Achievement (5) General Achievement (1) Clan Achievement (10)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:18 am

In Greece the mainstream media has begun discussing what Fruitcake mentioned before.

There have been a whole host of new articles bandying about the idea that the troika and Germany's actions are not meant on helping the Greek economy out, but on forcing an exit.

The ECB is no longer accepting Greek bonds as collateral as of last week. It has done this before, but only in special situations such as PSI. Greek banks are now borrowing from the ECB at 3.50% instead of the usual 1.50%. I even read one that acknowledged the obvious: that austerity has only made things worse.

Other articles are wondering whether Greece can "pull an Argentina."

Instead of the irrational fear that surrounded a Greek exit as a result of certain politicians seeking votes out of fear, a rational discussion on the effects on the actors an on the outside actors' motives has become possible. And that is a very good thing.

Meanwhile, PASOK infighting has gotten worse due to a new bill introduced in parliament regarding the closing down of two-thirds of the country's universities. This party is arguing itself out of Parliament at this rate.
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
User avatar
Corporal GreecePwns
 
Posts: 2654
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Lawn Guy Lint
Medals: 10
Standard Achievement (2) Terminator Achievement (1) Assassin Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (3)

Re: The Greek Economic Crisis Thread

Postby GreecePwns on Fri Oct 19, 2012 12:59 pm

An update on public opinion polling which occurred yesterday: These polls are within the context of increased Nazi violence toward immigrants and their attack of a theater showing a play parodying Christianity, as well as the preparation of another bailout coupled with 14 billion euros of austerity. Keep in mind, there is no election scheduled, but given the fragile state of government it could happen within a months notice.

151 seats are needed for a majority.

SYRIZA moves to 1st place at 30.5% or 129 seats
ND has 27% or 70 seats
Golden Dawn is now way up to 14% or 37 seats
Independent Greeks has 7% or 18 seats
The KKE has 6.5% or 18 seats
PASOK is way down to 5.5% or 14 seats
Democratic Left is unchanged at 5.5% or 14 seats

Outside of Golden Dawn doubling its support through violence toward immigrants (and providing financial aid for people who can prove Greek citizenship), the other major development is the impending death of PASOK. Not only is support for the party down, but its left wing members, a group called Left Initiative, are preparing to break away from the party soon for its unquestioning pro-bailout stance while in government. This won't threaten the government's majority of 178 seats, but now either PASOK or Democratic Left pulling out will cause a new election (unlikely, but possible given Democratic Left's history of opportunism).
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
User avatar
Corporal GreecePwns
 
Posts: 2654
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Lawn Guy Lint
Medals: 10
Standard Achievement (2) Terminator Achievement (1) Assassin Achievement (1) Freestyle Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Tournament Contribution (3)

Re: Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

Postby Fruitcake on Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:38 am

European leaders managed to kick the can full of dynamite down the road again last night...a case of third time lucky?

Along with the IMF they managed to agree a framework to reduce the debt burden that currently hangs over Greece.The main headline is the reduction in interest rates on some loans moving forward, however the cuts now mean that countries such as Ireland, Portugal and Spain will be losing money on their loans as they initially borrowed the money at higher interest rates! (Behold, dear reader, the looking glass logic that burdens countries who have huge problems of their own with this insane move.)

As well as getting 'more moolah' by reducing the amount the Greeks will have to pay, Greece has also been given more time to pay. Maturities have been extended by 15 years on both loans with the interest on the money from the European Financial Stability Facility delayed by 10 years. By doing this the Europeans have moved the model closer to that demanded by the IMF, that of bringing the debt/GDP level closer to the 120% the IMF have been so vociferous about....Well that's the theory, and as long as this papers over the cracks for a few more months, then they can think up some other wheeze next year so that the problem isn't really surfacing until post autumn 2013 when the General Elections in Germany and Italy will be taking place...(they must think the populous are really naive, which unfortunately when it comes to these matters they do tend to be)

However, not everything has been resolved, there is a sting in the tail of all this. This centres around the fact that Greece will not be entitled to its latest round of bailout money until a debt buyback plan is agreed by December 13th. This Debt buyback allows Greece to buy its own debt and cancel it at a lot cheaper levels than holding until maturity; unfortunately given the increase in prospects for Greece in the past few months the price of Greek debt has increased from around 15c in an Euro to around 35c in a Euro, actually making the plan more expensive. Greece really does need this cash by then as it has a EUR5.4bn bond repayment due on the 14th.

Markets were marginally positive about this as a deal had been pretty much factored in anyway, so the Euro gains were not that great.

I hear on the grapevine that certain banks have been doing seriously well out of all this by trading the Euro currency, a very nifty way of assisting their task of getting their balance sheets back in order. One has to wonder (if one thinks in this way) as to whether the banks/Govts don't actually work this in concert, thereby ensuring the general working populations ultimately pay for all the bank losses since 2008. The upside to this being that the only losers are the general populations whilst the Banks and Political classes are in a win win situation....
Image

Due to current economic conditions the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off
User avatar
Colonel Fruitcake
 
Posts: 2180
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:38 am
Medals: 20
Standard Achievement (2) Doubles Achievement (3) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (1) Fog of War Achievement (1)
Speed Achievement (1) Teammate Achievement (2) Cross-Map Achievement (1) Ratings Achievement (3) General Achievement (1)
Clan Achievement (2)

PreviousNext

Return to Babble-On Five

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users

Login