Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

[GreecePwns]

The newest opinion poll by VPRC has support for the two major parties down to a new-record 35 percent. LAOS may be going from part of government to out of parliament altogether. Panos Kammenos' Independent Greeks is surging, taking away votes from the rightmost wing of New Democracy and LAOS with its stringent defense of national sovereignty, even bringing up the "Germany owes us war reparations" position, and calling for the removal of immunity for parliament (which should be a position of all parties, honestly). The change in leadership for PASOK proved to be of little help, with their improvement in the polls falling within the margin of error. The Greens are also looking at a place outside of parliament for the first time in months. More about the party here.

The new poll gives us this Parliament:

New Democracy 114
PASOK 35
KKE 35
SYRIZA 34
Democratic Left 33
Independent Greeks 31
Golden Dawn 10
LAOS 8

The ND-PASOK coalition government possibility is now dead, as well as any other 2-party coalition government. There are no realistic scenarios for a 3-party coalition government either. And the problem gets even more difficult when you factor in the Greens in parliament:

New Democracy 111
PASOK 34
KKE 34
SYRIZA 33
Democratic Left 31
Independent Greeks 31
Golden Dawn 10
LAOS 8
Greens 8

We must also consider the fact that this poll was conducted before the official formation of Social Contract, a prominent PASOK splinter group. This group has a considerable chance to enter Parliament as well.

[Fruitcake]

We see this happen in the real world. You have too much discretion in the hands of central bankers, the politicians, and, of course, their friends in high places.

The bailout was for "stabilizing" the Euro, but I'd think at least you and me knew that this wasn't going to end well (and we're right). Is it mostly from corrupt central planners, or are they just that incompetent?

Do you think most people are just oblivious to this? When people hear the words "market failure", they feel justified that their governments are "doing something" to (haha) "correct" it.

What a sad, ignorant, incompetent aspect of humanity.

The planners are both corrupt and incompetent. However, those two failings often walk arm in arm as they step over the precipice.

As for the people? I have always thought the cleverest myth ever visited upon the masses was to get them thinking they actually knew what was happening. Well the chickens of this age of mediocrity are well and truly coming home to roost. I have been hoping the scales would fall from the eyes of the people for a few years now (you need only look for some of my old posts when the banking disaster struck 3 years ago) and each time these strokes are pulled by the so called leaders they edge the whole situation closer to all out anarchy. The people are starting to wake up. The cloud cuckoo land the Politicians have dragged the rest into over the last 15 - 20 years is coming to an end...good! Time to wake up and smell the caffeine rich scent of reality.

I have no idea what's going to happen next in terms of social impact but I damned well know what I would like to see, and how ironic should this actually start in Greece.

[GreecePwns]

*In an effort to save face, LAOS has removed itself from the coalition government of ECB plant PM Lucas Papademos. Only PASOK and ND remain in support of the prime minister, who was only put in power in order to pass the austerity memorandum.

*Center-right ND has ramped up its rhetoric regarding illegal immigration, with party leader Antonis Samaras declaring that our cities "have been taken by illegal migrants...we will take our cities back" ND is only joined by Golden Dawn in this fight against illegal immigrants.

*SYRIZA is poised to make another surge in the polls, as two former PASOK MPs, the Unitary Movement party, prominent leftist Young Militants group, and two other "green left" groups have joined the coalition, which is now renamed SYRIZA-Unified Social Front. In a nationally-televised speech, leader Alex Tsipras outlined the groups platform:

The main points in this, as presented by Tsipras, were the reversal of the memorandum and the loan agreements, a suspension of payments for as long as was necessary for the recovery of the economy and then a selective default and the payment of a portion of Greece's debt with conditions and terms to promote growth.

Other key points were a redistribution of wealth accompanied by social and economic justice, real growth with respect for the environment that was beneficial for society and the economic and productive restructuring of the country.

In addition mention was made of a social protection 'shield', the defence of public goods, a multidimensional, independent foreign policy with active policies for peace, friendship and cooperation as well as a departure from NATO and the removal of NATO bases from Greece.

Tsipras underlined that the crisis now being experienced by Greece was the result of the political choices of the forces ruling the country for decades, that were now "forming partnerships in order to finish the job off" and had signed an agreement to "sell off and socially dismantle" Greece.

He accused foreign and especially European Union officials of attacking Syriza and interfering with the election process in Greece, fearing that the two-party system was under threat, and he dismissed a recent focus on unregistered migration issues as an attempt by the mainstream parties to create a diversion in the run-up to elections.

Asked about the possibility of cooperation after the elections with the Fotis Kouvelis' Democratic Left or former Pasok minister Louka Katseli's Social Pact parties, Tsipras said that Syriza "proposed policy convergences" but that did not look at things from the same angle as the Democratic Left or Social Pact.

With the possible death of PASOK and ND coalition government, the issues are increasingly becoming a fight between the big two vs. everyone else. Experts are predicting their combined votes for coalition government must exceed 38%.

[GreecePwns]

A new opinion poll released 3/31 gave PASOK a bump up due to their recent leadership change, mostly at the expense of the closest party ideologically, Democratic Left. Also, the right-wing LAOS is hemorrhaging votes to neo-Nazis Golden Dawn, who saw their highest results with 5% of the vote. Whether or not these are both lasting bump is to be known. LAOS is not in parliament in this poll, replaced by the Greens. The newest poll produces this parliament:

New Democracy 112
PASOK 43 (Big 2 combined: 155)
SYRIZA 34
KKE 33
Democratic Left 33
Independent Greeks 23
Golden Dawn 14
Greens 8

Even more interesting is a new feature, in which Public Issue gives % odds to possible resulting governments:

Leftist coalition government: 21%
PASOK-ND coalition 12%
ND government: 9%
Other party with majority: 4%
Rainbow coalition government including both PASOK-ND: 3%
PASOK government: 3%
Right coalition government: 3%
Rainbow coalition without PASOK and ND: 2%
KKE government: 1%
SYRIZA government: 1%

[BigBallinStalin]

The newest opinion poll by VPRC has support for the two major parties down to a new-record 35 percent. LAOS may be going from part of government to out of parliament altogether. Panos Kammenos' Independent Greeks is surging, taking away votes from the rightmost wing of New Democracy and LAOS with its stringent defense of national sovereignty, even bringing up the "Germany owes us war reparations" position, and calling for the removal of immunity for parliament (which should be a position of all parties, honestly). The change in leadership for PASOK proved to be of little help, with their improvement in the polls falling within the margin of error. The Greens are also looking at a place outside of parliament for the first time in months. More about the party here.

Wait, what exactly are the politicians immune from ?

[GreecePwns]

To quote wiki:

Members of Parliament are immune from criminal prosecution, arrest or detention while in office. They are also immune from having to provide any information to any authority regarding their legislative functions and deliberations. They are not immune from civil suits. Alleged crimes committed in the member's official capacity (e.g. embezzlement of public monies) may be adjudicated only after Parliament impeaches the member. Government ministers who are not members of Parliament are subject to the same procedure. The impeachment trial is held by an ad hoc Special Court. Alleged crimes committed in the member's personal capacity (e.g. homicide) may be adjudicated only after Parliament votes to have the member's immunity suspended, at the request of a prosecuting attorney and only in relation to the particular alleged crime. In such cases, the case is adjudicated by a regular court. The Parliament's permission is not necessary if a member is "caught in the act" of committing a crime (e.g. murder).

[BigBallinStalin]

Sounds like a sweet gig. Where do I sign up to become a Greek politician?

[GreecePwns]

This morning, a 77-year old man committed suicide in Syntagma Square in central Athens, and his suicide note can be a catalyst for further political turmoil.

State media has reported that Dimitris Christoulas, the man who took his own life using a pistol on Syntagma Square, in central Athens, on Wednesday morning, left a suicide note.
"The Tsolakoglou government has annihilated all traces for my survival, which was based on a very dignified pension that I alone paid for 35 years with no help from the state. And since my advanced age does not allow me a way of dynamically reacting (although if a fellow Greek were to grab a Kalashnikov, I would be right behind him), I see no other solution than this dignified end to my life, so I don’t find myself fishing through garbage cans for my sustenance. I believe that young people with no future, will one day take up arms and hang the traitors of this country at Syntagma square, just like the Italians did to Mussolini in 1945" the note said.
Georgios Tsolakoglou was the first collaborationist prime minister during Germany's occupation of Greece during the Second World War. The reference has been widely interpreted as a comparison between the wartime collaborationist government and the current government of Lucas Papademos.

[GreecePwns]

Metron Analysis released a poll today, the first of April and the last before election season officially starts. The election date will be announced Wednesday, and most think it will be May 6th. Here are some changes in this poll and the news surrounding them:

- New Democracy continues to decline, now down to a new low of 20.8%. After ND party chief Antonis Samaras gave a prominent speech attacking PASOK and PASOK fighting back, many voters say they see this as more of the same. On top of that Samaras is ruling out a grand coalition with PASOK. Whether or not this is just politics remains to be seen.
- PASOK's rebounding is mostly at the expense of DIMAR, who have failed to differentiate themselves enough from PASOK. They are down to 9 percent, whereas for the past month they were somewhere in the 12-14 range.
- Golden Dawn continues to rise, now to 5.5%, on the back of the illegal immigrant detention centre issue
- In this poll, both LAOS and the Greens are in parliament, with the Greens hitting a year to date high of 4.6%
- ND defectors Independent Greeks continue to take away votes from their former party, at 10.6%
- The ND+PASOK coalition possibility is DOA in this poll, even falling outside 95% certainty range.

The poll produces the following Parliament:
New Democracy 107
PASOK 41
SYRIZA-Unitary Social Front 32
KKE 29
Independent Greeks 29
Democratic Left 25
Golden Dawn 15
Greens 13
LAOS 9

Looks like another election in winter, guys.

[Baron Von PWN]

What happens if no party forms a Majority? Or if no coalition is possible? Do you then get a minority parliament that governs issue by issue?

[GreecePwns]

I would assume so. It's amazing that a system set up to prevent exactly this is still being broken down. Without the 50 free seats going to the first party, there would be another Belgium situation.

[Baron Von PWN]

I would assume so. It's amazing that a system set up to prevent exactly this is still being broken down. Without the 50 free seats going to the first party, there would be another Belgium situation.

First place gets 50 free seats? That's weird. Especialy when in terms of public opinion 1st 2nd and 3rd are pretty close.

[GreecePwns]

Well in all the elections prior to this, two parties would end up getting 75+% of the votes, so all it did was give the winner an absolute majority. This election the two parties are getting less than 40%, and instead of 3 smaller parties joining them there can be as many as 6 or 7. The free seats normally help prevent a situation where government formation is impossible, and yet due to the proliferation of breakaway parties and collapse of PASOK + ND, not even this is enough help.

[GreecePwns]

On the heels of Antonis Samaras announcing he will not seek coalition with any other party in pursuit of an absolute majority, a new opinion poll has New Democracy at its lowest point, with 19% of the vote.

The poll produces the following Parliament:
New Democracy 102
PASOK 40
SYRIZA-Unitary Social Front 35
Democratic Left 33
KKE 30
Independent Greeks 30
Golden Dawn 14
Greens 8
LAOS 8

Expect some changes now that election season has officially begun. Greek media laws require equal time to be given to what are called "parliamentary groups" - groups that contested the last election (ND, PASOK,SYRIZA, KKE, LAOS) or otherwise have 10+ MPs (Democratic Left, Independent Greeks). No media time is required for other groups.

Another Greek law forbids opinion polls from being released after two weeks before the election, so the next time I post opinion polls will be the last time.

Full disclosure: I will be voting for SYRIZA.

[Phatscotty]

Hey Pwns, can you please tell me what is wrong with this picture? I'm asking you before I post it out on all my other sources.