Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby GreecePwns on Sat Apr 21, 2012 5:49 pm

I would tell you, but I have before several times, even in this thread. I can even spend another several thousands of words telling you what's wrong with that picture, your worldview, your method of debate and several other things, but I will not, because you're just gonna come into another thread next week and say the same things and act the same way.

I mean come on man, liberals running out of other people's money to waste? Did you even read what I wrote the last time we talked about this? And where are the liberals? Who else's money? Forget it, I've got more important things to do right now.

Greece is Burning! This is what happens when a government does not enforce its own tax laws because its tax collectors take bribes!
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby Phatscotty on Sat Apr 21, 2012 6:04 pm

GreecePwns wrote:I would tell you, but I have before several times, even in this thread. I can even spend another several thousands of words telling you what's wrong with that picture, your worldview, your method of debate and several other things, but I will not, because you're just gonna come into another thread next week and say the same things and act the same way.

I mean come on man, liberals running out of other people's money to waste? Did you even read what I wrote the last time we talked about this? And where are the liberals? Who else's money? Forget it, I've got more important things to do right now.


well, of course that's all YOUR FAULT for not having changed my mind! ;)

I think we can both agree Greece ran out of money. I think we can both agree that Greece only survives because of other people money. I think we can both agree that still that is not enough money. I understand you are sensitive because of the famous saying "Socialism only works until you run out of other people's money", and how this looks.

I have heard you in your previous posts, I know what you are going to say. That doesn't not change that Greece has run out of other poeple's money. Sure you can inform us all about the reasons why Greece went bust, and who's fault it is, and why it didn't work this time, and it would have worked if only xyz happened.

The people of Greece are striking and rioting and burning and suiciding because they ran out of money. That's just the bottom line. We are going to have to disagree, which is sad, because that just means that many people will not learn anything from Greece's failure.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby GreecePwns on Sat Apr 21, 2012 6:06 pm

Okay.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby Phatscotty on Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:20 pm

Well, I understand Greece was lent a bunch of money by Germany etc. But that isn't really the debt I was talking about. I was talking about the bond debt. Once Greece's revenues began to dry up from taxation etc, Greece started selling more and more bonds so they could continue their way of life (comments withheld). Greece knew it would have trouble paying the interest back, not to mention the principle, but of course they figured the crisis would end and the economy would rebound and they would get back on their feet and their way of life could continue. Obama thinks the same thing for the USA.

Sure, JP Morgan Goldman Sachs and co. punked out Greece, but I will say what I have always said about my own country. Greece could have reformed. It's not to single out Greece, as I know how hard it is for people to change their ways from what they are comfortable with, and usually do not take action until it's too late. The key is to fix the problems before the system crashes. I really am sorry things happened the way they did over there, and it drives me even harder to try to fix our problems and inculcate solutions here before the system crashes. That is part of the reason I posted that picture.

People deny the problems, and then when it comes to a head, they are all to eager to give the government more power and give up their own freedom and sovereignty in the name of not having to change their lifestyles. Of course, if the people never fix the problem, they are going to be forced to change their lifestyles. The longer the people wait, the worse they will be in the end

Debt can be helpful, but all too often people and countries go way too far and screw it up for everyone else, including the people who were responsible and had little/no debt. It's just my opinion, but whether the people of Greece knew it or not, they sold out their sovereignty in the few years before the Austerity measures were imposed (much like I think American's are selling their freedom right now, by continuing to demand more spending, more government programs, adamantly refusing to cut even a penny of spending, all the while our credit is being downgraded). They got some smaller bailouts, but did not change their ways. That was the time for Greece to deal with their problems, they did not. I don't even really think they tried to hard either. Rather than look for solutions, they played blame games about who's fault it was, which made it pretty easy for average Greeks not to have to look at themselves or make any changes. sure, the politicians take the blame too for lying and selling people out, but the bottom line, IMO, is that this is where redistribution of wealth always ends up. It's hard to understand because it never happens the same way and can be hard to identify, even after it gets painfully clear.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby GreecePwns on Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:44 am

The last two opinion polls have been released, and they show pretty much the same picture (that the two big parties will struggle to get enough seats to form a coalition; and that there probably will be another election. Another poll on what government was preferred showed this:

Leftist anti-bailout party coalition: 21 percent
ND-PASOK pro-bailout coalition: 14.9 percent
Technocratic pro-bailout government: 11.3 percent
None, I want another election: 22 percent
All other options got <1 percent
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby BigBallinStalin on Sun Apr 22, 2012 12:27 pm

Do you think the Greek economy could get any worse? Or has it bottomed out?
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby GreecePwns on Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:08 pm

If we are to believe the experts, the worst is behind us. And that's a leap of faith.

Yes, GDP is growing. But government deficits are too.
Yes, the government reigned in expenses by privatizing the financially worst-looking of its assets. But it still leaves money on the table due to rampant tax evasion and now a new tax system, which shifts the burden toward the lower income brackets.

EDIT: The tax evasion problem made the old tax system effectively regressive. The changes being implemented without solving the real problem only make it more so.

Also, the government deficit is still just as bad as it was before. And there are still only 6 reported millionaires living in Greece.

This is something that can't be answered in a response of this length, what with all the uncertainty and the massive implications of this election.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby Fruitcake on Tue Apr 24, 2012 7:32 am

Riots on the streets of Prague now. The Dutch Govt have pretty much left the arena after mass resignations (also looks like their AAA rating will be downgraded). European equities (continental Europe that is) hit the skids big time yesterday (€122 billion+ wiped).Negative GDP projections by the Bank of Spain and now the Netherlands and the Czech Republic all hit the circuits yesterday.

This whole situation is still looking like a slow motion pile up.

The Euro is gasping for air. Time for the Greeks to get the hell out of this crazy currency.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby BigBallinStalin on Tue Apr 24, 2012 9:11 am

WOOOOO, BABY! LET IT RIDE!!!!
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Apr 24, 2012 11:59 am

Fruitcake wrote:Riots on the streets of Prague now. The Dutch Govt have pretty much left the arena after mass resignations (also looks like their AAA rating will be downgraded). European equities (continental Europe that is) hit the skids big time yesterday (€122 billion+ wiped).Negative GDP projections by the Bank of Spain and now the Netherlands and the Czech Republic all hit the circuits yesterday.

This whole situation is still looking like a slow motion pile up.

The Euro is gasping for air. Time for the Greeks to get the hell out of this crazy currency.


The only Greek political parties that support an exit from the Euro are the neo-Nazis and the communists. :lol:
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby BigBallinStalin on Tue Apr 24, 2012 2:20 pm

They're trying to find the niche voter markets.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby Fruitcake on Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:32 pm

GreecePwns wrote:
Fruitcake wrote:Riots on the streets of Prague now. The Dutch Govt have pretty much left the arena after mass resignations (also looks like their AAA rating will be downgraded). European equities (continental Europe that is) hit the skids big time yesterday (€122 billion+ wiped).Negative GDP projections by the Bank of Spain and now the Netherlands and the Czech Republic all hit the circuits yesterday.

This whole situation is still looking like a slow motion pile up.

The Euro is gasping for air. Time for the Greeks to get the hell out of this crazy currency.


The only Greek political parties that support an exit from the Euro are the neo-Nazis and the communists. :lol:


You bet! Why would the main politicians not support staying in the Euro? After all, their paymasters in Brussels (sic) now dictate what they say...and the Greek central banker, George Provopoulos also sits on the governing council of the European Central Bank.

With the greatest respect to you and the rest of the long suffering Greek people, the ultimate paymasters of the Greek political class and in fact, presently Europe's ultimate paymaster overall is the German government. So one should look closely at what this particular band of people are busying themselves with at the moment....The Germans are doing very well in China as they make things the Chinese want to buy. Two weeks ago, BMW and Audi announced record increase in sales but this did not happen in the EU but in the BRICs especially China.

Meanwhile, I read currently that the Greek central bank has revised it's forecasts downwards once again, smashing the 4.5% contraction given at the last bail out and now forecasting 5% minimum contraction in the coming year.

I follow a lot of Greek journalists who work for the financial press. They have some very astute insights into this whole situation.

I would bet the farm there is no overall majority in the election. Most likely (IMHO) it will be a case of uneasy bedfellows with New Democracy sharing power with the Pasok party.

Good luck to every one in Greece. I shall be down in Athens soon to attend some functions I have been invited to there and on a couple of islands . I always love these visits and my Greek friends tell me they are determined to press on regardless.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby Phatscotty on Tue May 01, 2012 12:35 am

Greecepwns, I was reading about Greece and came across this...

....to stop illegal crossing into a country that became the entry point for 90 percent of the European Union's illegal migrants. Authorities estimate there are about 1 million migrants living in this country of 11 million.



Is that true? If so, why? Is it only geography?
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby Baron Von PWN on Tue May 01, 2012 10:12 am

Phatscotty wrote:Greecepwns, I was reading about Greece and came across this...

....to stop illegal crossing into a country that became the entry point for 90 percent of the European Union's illegal migrants. Authorities estimate there are about 1 million migrants living in this country of 11 million.



Is that true? If so, why? Is it only geography?


Probably geography. They border Albania and Macedonia. Though I suspect the bigger issue is all the islands. It would be difficult to patrol properly. All someone would have to do is land somewhere undetected and they'd then have access to internal EU transportation.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby patches70 on Tue May 01, 2012 10:54 am

Phatscotty wrote:Greecepwns, I was reading about Greece and came across this...

....to stop illegal crossing into a country that became the entry point for 90 percent of the European Union's illegal migrants. Authorities estimate there are about 1 million migrants living in this country of 11 million.



Is that true? If so, why? Is it only geography?


Greece is the drop off point for immigrants traveling further into Europe to find jobs and opportunity. They all go through Greece.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby GreecePwns on Thu May 03, 2012 12:35 pm

Pretty much what patches said. The ones that stay are mostly Albanian and Macedonians, for geographic reasons mostly.


A clarification on government formation:
If no party wins outright, as is expected, the president gives the biggest group - expected to be New Democracy - three days to form a government. If it fails, the second biggest party would be given a chance, and then the next one, until all parties have had a go.

If they all fail, new elections would be called in about 20-25 days.


This means that if government is not formed after this election, the next one would take place somewhere between June 23-38.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu May 03, 2012 1:24 pm

GreecePwns wrote:Pretty much what patches said. The ones that stay are mostly Albanian and Macedonians, for geographic reasons mostly.


A clarification on government formation:
If no party wins outright, as is expected, the president gives the biggest group - expected to be New Democracy - three days to form a government. If it fails, the second biggest party would be given a chance, and then the next one, until all parties have had a go.

If they all fail, new elections would be called in about 20-25 days.


This means that if government is not formed after this election, the next one would take place somewhere between June 23-38.


In other words, if the biggest group did not gain enough votes to legitimately rule the country, then the president decrees that the biggest group must become the government. Autocracy much?

What's the criteria for "forming a government"? Does the president just look around and say, "oh, we have a government now! Good job, New Democracy! Now enjoy your illegally gained power."

Or, does he give the first group (New Democracy) first dibs on forming a coalition government, while the other groups are prohibited from doing so?
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby GreecePwns on Thu May 03, 2012 1:39 pm

They do not become the government. They get permission for 3 days to negotiate with other parties to form a government together (one that gets a majority of seats by adding the seats of all parties involved together).

In Greece the President is mostly a figurehead (he dissolves Parliament and is Commander in Chief and that's pretty much it).

EDIT: Basically, the last thing you said.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu May 03, 2012 1:52 pm

How much of a figurehead is this president if he has command over the Greek Military, can dissolve Parliament, and can arbitrarily determine how the new government will be formed?

Anyway,
Why not just have the coalition-forming be simultaneous? Instead of giving the clear advantage to the New Democracy, why not let all political parties haggle over coalition agreements at the same time?

Essentially, this is "competitive" bidding but only one political party of these exchanges can "supply" government to the buyers, i.e. other political parties. Clearly, the New Democracy would become a monopoly overseeing all the bids. How is this just? How is this remotely democratic?


One possible answer is that the New Democracy party has somehow persuaded the president to enact an policy which is most advantageous for them (a.k.a. rent-seeking). (This would be wrong if there was a previously established rule for this kind of situation).
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby GreecePwns on Thu May 03, 2012 4:26 pm

This rule has existed for a long time and probably exists in most parliaments (don't quote me on that, my one example that I know of is Belgium).

Technically, everyone is negotiating with everyone at the same time in the background, but for the first 3 days, New Democracy gets the right to declare a government if they can strike a deal with other parties. The idea is that the "winner" deserve to be in government. If they don't, whoever comes in second will get this power for 3 days (while the ones below them continue to negotiate.

I agree with you, just playing devil's advocate.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu May 03, 2012 5:13 pm

I got'cha, and thanks for playing devil's advocate.
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Re: Polls are Open in Greece: Massive Election Today

Postby GreecePwns on Sat May 05, 2012 11:21 pm

Polls are now open in Greece (from 7AM to 7PM local time). I'll try to update this by tomorrow morning EST with some exit polls. I leave you with a reposting of the final opinion poll published before the election (April 20th) and what might come next.

New Democracy 21.5%
PASOK 14.0%
SYRIZA 13%
KKE 11%
Independent Greeks 11%
Democratic Left 9.5%
Golden Dawn 5.5%
Greens 3.5%
LAOS 3%
----------------------------------------------
Democratic Alliance 2%
Anticapitalist Left Cooperation for the Overthrow 1.0
All others >1%

This yields the following Parliament:
New Democracy 108
PASOK 39 (Big 2 combined: 147)
SYRIZA 35
KKE 30
Independent Greeks 30
Democratic Left 26
Golden Dawn 15
Greens 9
LAOS 8

How I predict government formation talks will go:
Days 1-3 (ND): Aggressive courting of PASOK first and if talks succeed (assuming they don't have 151) Democratic Left next
Days 3-6 (PASOK): If they haven't agreed with ND yet, continued negotiations with them exclusively for the rest of the time.
Days 7-9 (SYRIZA): Talks with Democratic Left, KKE and Greens to form a leftist coalition government (they've been running on this idea since the beginning)
Days 10-12 (KKE): Nothing. They refuse to partner with any other party (at least openly).
Days 13-15 (Independent Greeks): They're on an island ideologically, really. Can't see them doing much with their time.
Days 16-18 (Golden Dawn): Nothing for obvious reasons.
Days 19-21 (Greens): New kids on the block who will probably jump at any chance to be in government (except one with ND+PASOK). Still, their limited power means nothing.
Days 21-24 (LAOS): Only 8 seats, probably nothing coming from them.

So its either ND+PASOK or another election next month.
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Re: Polls are Open in Greece: Massive Election Today

Postby GreecePwns on Sun May 06, 2012 10:43 am

First exit polls by TV networks will be released in around half an hour, with no official results coming until around 9PM local time (15 minutes from now).

From news website Kathimerini's live blog of the election: The leaders of the two main parties, socialist PASOK and conservative New Democracy, have been holding emergency meetings with party officials, according to Skai radio which reported "few smiling faces."
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Re: Polls are Open in Greece: Massive Election Today

Postby GreecePwns on Sun May 06, 2012 11:19 am

Early exit polls are showing SYRIZA in a shocking dead heat with ND for first place! ND has likely secured less than 20 percent of the vote (17-20%) with SYRIZA at 15.5-18.5% and PASOK at 14-17%. Golden Dawn have also outperformed their opinion polling at 6-8%. None of the 5 indicate there will be a coalition government.

But if SYRIZA wins, the story is entirely different.

On the other hand, Democratic Left will be disappointed, with only 4.5-6.5%. The middle of each party's range of possibilities is below:

ND 18.5% (103 seats)
SYRIZA 17 (48)
PASOK 15.5 (43)
Independent Greeks 11 (31)
KKE 8 (23)
Golden Dawn 7 (20)
Democratic Left 5.5 (16)
Greens 3 (8)
LAOS 3 (8)

The only situation in which there is a ND+PASOK government is if both the Greens and LAOS do not make it in.
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Re: First Greek Exit Polls Indicate 1st Place Still Undecide

Postby saxitoxin on Sun May 06, 2012 12:38 pm

GP - are you allowed to vote in Greek elections? Who did you vote for or, if not, for whom would you have voted?
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