Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby GreecePwns on Thu May 03, 2012 12:35 pm

Pretty much what patches said. The ones that stay are mostly Albanian and Macedonians, for geographic reasons mostly.


A clarification on government formation:
If no party wins outright, as is expected, the president gives the biggest group - expected to be New Democracy - three days to form a government. If it fails, the second biggest party would be given a chance, and then the next one, until all parties have had a go.

If they all fail, new elections would be called in about 20-25 days.


This means that if government is not formed after this election, the next one would take place somewhere between June 23-38.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu May 03, 2012 1:24 pm

GreecePwns wrote:Pretty much what patches said. The ones that stay are mostly Albanian and Macedonians, for geographic reasons mostly.


A clarification on government formation:
If no party wins outright, as is expected, the president gives the biggest group - expected to be New Democracy - three days to form a government. If it fails, the second biggest party would be given a chance, and then the next one, until all parties have had a go.

If they all fail, new elections would be called in about 20-25 days.


This means that if government is not formed after this election, the next one would take place somewhere between June 23-38.


In other words, if the biggest group did not gain enough votes to legitimately rule the country, then the president decrees that the biggest group must become the government. Autocracy much?

What's the criteria for "forming a government"? Does the president just look around and say, "oh, we have a government now! Good job, New Democracy! Now enjoy your illegally gained power."

Or, does he give the first group (New Democracy) first dibs on forming a coalition government, while the other groups are prohibited from doing so?
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby GreecePwns on Thu May 03, 2012 1:39 pm

They do not become the government. They get permission for 3 days to negotiate with other parties to form a government together (one that gets a majority of seats by adding the seats of all parties involved together).

In Greece the President is mostly a figurehead (he dissolves Parliament and is Commander in Chief and that's pretty much it).

EDIT: Basically, the last thing you said.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu May 03, 2012 1:52 pm

How much of a figurehead is this president if he has command over the Greek Military, can dissolve Parliament, and can arbitrarily determine how the new government will be formed?

Anyway,
Why not just have the coalition-forming be simultaneous? Instead of giving the clear advantage to the New Democracy, why not let all political parties haggle over coalition agreements at the same time?

Essentially, this is "competitive" bidding but only one political party of these exchanges can "supply" government to the buyers, i.e. other political parties. Clearly, the New Democracy would become a monopoly overseeing all the bids. How is this just? How is this remotely democratic?


One possible answer is that the New Democracy party has somehow persuaded the president to enact an policy which is most advantageous for them (a.k.a. rent-seeking). (This would be wrong if there was a previously established rule for this kind of situation).
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby GreecePwns on Thu May 03, 2012 4:26 pm

This rule has existed for a long time and probably exists in most parliaments (don't quote me on that, my one example that I know of is Belgium).

Technically, everyone is negotiating with everyone at the same time in the background, but for the first 3 days, New Democracy gets the right to declare a government if they can strike a deal with other parties. The idea is that the "winner" deserve to be in government. If they don't, whoever comes in second will get this power for 3 days (while the ones below them continue to negotiate.

I agree with you, just playing devil's advocate.
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu May 03, 2012 5:13 pm

I got'cha, and thanks for playing devil's advocate.
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Re: Polls are Open in Greece: Massive Election Today

Postby GreecePwns on Sat May 05, 2012 11:21 pm

Polls are now open in Greece (from 7AM to 7PM local time). I'll try to update this by tomorrow morning EST with some exit polls. I leave you with a reposting of the final opinion poll published before the election (April 20th) and what might come next.

New Democracy 21.5%
PASOK 14.0%
SYRIZA 13%
KKE 11%
Independent Greeks 11%
Democratic Left 9.5%
Golden Dawn 5.5%
Greens 3.5%
LAOS 3%
----------------------------------------------
Democratic Alliance 2%
Anticapitalist Left Cooperation for the Overthrow 1.0
All others >1%

This yields the following Parliament:
New Democracy 108
PASOK 39 (Big 2 combined: 147)
SYRIZA 35
KKE 30
Independent Greeks 30
Democratic Left 26
Golden Dawn 15
Greens 9
LAOS 8

How I predict government formation talks will go:
Days 1-3 (ND): Aggressive courting of PASOK first and if talks succeed (assuming they don't have 151) Democratic Left next
Days 3-6 (PASOK): If they haven't agreed with ND yet, continued negotiations with them exclusively for the rest of the time.
Days 7-9 (SYRIZA): Talks with Democratic Left, KKE and Greens to form a leftist coalition government (they've been running on this idea since the beginning)
Days 10-12 (KKE): Nothing. They refuse to partner with any other party (at least openly).
Days 13-15 (Independent Greeks): They're on an island ideologically, really. Can't see them doing much with their time.
Days 16-18 (Golden Dawn): Nothing for obvious reasons.
Days 19-21 (Greens): New kids on the block who will probably jump at any chance to be in government (except one with ND+PASOK). Still, their limited power means nothing.
Days 21-24 (LAOS): Only 8 seats, probably nothing coming from them.

So its either ND+PASOK or another election next month.
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Re: Polls are Open in Greece: Massive Election Today

Postby GreecePwns on Sun May 06, 2012 10:43 am

First exit polls by TV networks will be released in around half an hour, with no official results coming until around 9PM local time (15 minutes from now).

From news website Kathimerini's live blog of the election: The leaders of the two main parties, socialist PASOK and conservative New Democracy, have been holding emergency meetings with party officials, according to Skai radio which reported "few smiling faces."
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Re: Polls are Open in Greece: Massive Election Today

Postby GreecePwns on Sun May 06, 2012 11:19 am

Early exit polls are showing SYRIZA in a shocking dead heat with ND for first place! ND has likely secured less than 20 percent of the vote (17-20%) with SYRIZA at 15.5-18.5% and PASOK at 14-17%. Golden Dawn have also outperformed their opinion polling at 6-8%. None of the 5 indicate there will be a coalition government.

But if SYRIZA wins, the story is entirely different.

On the other hand, Democratic Left will be disappointed, with only 4.5-6.5%. The middle of each party's range of possibilities is below:

ND 18.5% (103 seats)
SYRIZA 17 (48)
PASOK 15.5 (43)
Independent Greeks 11 (31)
KKE 8 (23)
Golden Dawn 7 (20)
Democratic Left 5.5 (16)
Greens 3 (8)
LAOS 3 (8)

The only situation in which there is a ND+PASOK government is if both the Greens and LAOS do not make it in.
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Re: First Greek Exit Polls Indicate 1st Place Still Undecide

Postby saxitoxin on Sun May 06, 2012 12:38 pm

GP - are you allowed to vote in Greek elections? Who did you vote for or, if not, for whom would you have voted?
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Re: First Greek Exit Polls Indicate 1st Place Still Undecide

Postby GreecePwns on Sun May 06, 2012 2:14 pm

Unfortunately, the diaspora cannot vote in elections. I would have voted for SYRIZA.

The following site is the official election results (updated as more voting sites report results; currently ~25% of sites have reported)
http://ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012a/public/index.html?lang=en
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Re: First Greek Exit Polls Indicate 1st Place Still Undecide

Postby GreecePwns on Sun May 06, 2012 4:15 pm

Reporting 50,34 %
New Democracy 112 seats and 20,02 %
SYRIZA 49 seats and 16,06 %
PASOK 42 seats and 13,79 %
Independent Greeks 32 seats and 10,44 %
KKE 26 seats and 8,38 %
Golden Dawn 21 seats and 6,86 %
Democratic Left 18 seats and 6,00 %
LAOS 2,88 %
Greens 2,82 %
Democratic Alliance 2,55 %

The ND+PASOK coalition has 153 right now. LAOS and Greens have been moving up as more report. They both could make it in.
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Re: First Greek Exit Polls Indicate 1st Place Still Undecide

Postby GreecePwns on Sun May 06, 2012 6:24 pm

Reporting 76,72 %

ND 110 seats 19,58 %
SYRIZA 50 seats 16,39 %
PASOK 42 seats 13,51 %
Independent Greeks 32 seats 10,50 %
KKE 26 seats 8,38 %
Golden Dawn 21 seats 6,90 %
Democratic Left 19 seats 6,05 %
Greens 2,88 %
LAOS 2,87 %
Democratic Alliance 2,58 %

It looks more like the Greens and LAOS won't make it in. ND and PASOK numbers are both down, with PASOK only .03% from losing another seat, putting the two parties' total at exactly 151, which would be exactly enough. If they go down to 150, they would not be able to form a coalition government alone.
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Re: First Greek Exit Polls Indicate 1st Place Still Undecide

Postby saxitoxin on Sun May 06, 2012 7:27 pm

GreecePwns wrote:Golden Dawn 21 seats 6,90 %


:o

translate, GP (also, what is the significance of the two gay bathhouse attendants?):

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Re: First Greek Exit Polls Indicate 1st Place Still Undecide

Postby Phatscotty on Sun May 06, 2012 7:39 pm

What's gonna happen to your debt? Is the debt continuing to grow?
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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby maxfaraday on Sun May 06, 2012 8:07 pm

GreecePwns wrote:This rule has existed for a long time and probably exists in most parliaments (don't quote me on that, my one example that I know of is Belgium).


You're in deep shit then...
Belgium stayed withouth a Governement for like a year (it didn't seem to bother them though)...
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Re: First Greek Exit Polls Indicate 1st Place Still Undecide

Postby GreecePwns on Sun May 06, 2012 8:19 pm

Saxi, heres a quick outline:

Thanking the voters.
Samaras took our anti-immigration position and we're happy he cannot form a government and he is a hypocrite for changing his mind and trying to form coalition ("the Austerity Junta")
"A Greece free from immigrants (at one other point he used 'the stench') and from the memorandum"
"Veni, vidi, vici!" Yes, he actually said this. "You (the media) attacked us, you isolated us, you shut us out, but I beat you!...and the struggle will continue inside and outside of Parliament."

The big bodyguard looking guy on the left is soooo them. They've got a gang of thugs who harass immigrants and they don't deny it (they excuse it because they do occasional community service for ethnic Greeks.

An earlier quote: ‘I am not a fascist, I am a nationalist. Hitler was a great personality, but as a Greek I would fight him. We should send the illegal immigrants to the UN seat in New York’
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby GreecePwns on Mon May 07, 2012 12:38 am

Reporting 98,63 % (essentially the final results)

New Democracy 108 seats 18,89 %
SYRIZA 52 seats 16,76 %
PASOK 41 seats 13,20 %
Independent Greeks 33 seats 10,59 %
KKE 26 seats 8,48 %
Golden Dawn 21 seats 6,97 %
Democratic Left 19 seats 6,10 %
Greens 2,93 %
LAOS 2,90 %
Democratic Alliance 2,56 %

The coalition is dead now, at 149 seats. The Greens are officially out, despite making late gains. I expect these results will yield another election in one month's time.

The big winners were SYRIZA and Golden Dawn, who vastly outperformed their opinion polls.
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby Phatscotty on Mon May 07, 2012 12:42 am

no comments about Greece's debt? Is the debt still growing? has the growth slowed? Is the debt actually being addressed, or is it being ignored more than ever?

Came across some comments from an enlightened person with an excellent track record concerning Greece and the Golden Dawn party. Thought you might enjoy it, and also if you any comments about these comments please voice them. Cool to have a voice who is in the middle of it all. Thanks for this thread

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9b01KZ82GO8&t=7m05s
"I want you to remember that, to remind you to stay out of my way. In all the years to come, in all your most private moments, I want you to remember my hand at your throat. I want you to remember the one man who beat you."
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby GreecePwns on Mon May 07, 2012 1:00 am

Image

And seriously, Geert Wilders? Scotty did you even bother to look this guy up?
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby saxitoxin on Mon May 07, 2012 1:08 am

....
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby Phatscotty on Mon May 07, 2012 1:10 am

GreecePwns wrote:Image

And seriously, Geert Wilders? Scotty did you even bother to look this guy up?


No. I just asked you :)

And it looks like your debt is still rising....how have yall not addressed that yet?
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby comic boy on Mon May 07, 2012 9:06 am

Greek
I understand the appeal of the anti austerity groups but what is their actual manifesto , pulling out of the Euro and devaluation of the Drachma or are they banking on more bailouts/ debt write offs ?
Im a TOFU miSfit
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby GreecePwns on Mon May 07, 2012 9:56 am

Here's a nice summary of all the top parties. (PDF)

KKE: Greece should exit the eurozone and the EU, introduce a 45 percent tax rate for major capital, end armament deals that serve Nato needs and implement central planning for production

SYRIZA: Suspend the servicing of the debt, negotiate to erase a large portion of the public debt, add a pro-growth clause to the repayment of the rest of the debt; tax the wealthy, reduce armaments, combat corruption

Democratic Left: Reduce state expenditures for armaments and medicine, combat tax evasion effectively, reduce the public deficit more progressively, widen the tax base and impose heavier taxes on the wealthy and on capital

Greens: Redesign and improve tax system, reduce military expenditures, end economic privileges of the church, prioritise green economy, reduce tax for small & medium-sized enterprises

Independent Greeks: Create a new government-owned Greek investment bank, and transfer into it the property of the state, pension funds, state-owned public utilities, gold and money from all dormant accounts in banks

LAOS: Introduce a second currency for two years: use the eurodrachma for domestic transactions and keep the euro for transactions abroad; impose duties on imports

Golden Dawn: Denounce the memorandum, refuse to pay the odious public debt, nationalise the banks, exploit the hydrocarbons in the Greek seas, abolish party funding by the state
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby GreecePwns on Mon May 07, 2012 10:09 am

First ND leader Antonis Samaras called the Independent Greeks first, who declined to even sit at a table with them.
Then he called the Democratic Left, and they will meet shortly, but the Democratic Left refuses to join coalition.
Then he called the KKE, and Aleka Papariga just stopped short of telling him to f*ck off.
Then he called SYRIZA, and Alexis Tsipras just stopped short of telling him to f*ck off.
Then he met with PASOK, and the meeting with Democratic Left is next.
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.
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Posts: 2654
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