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by **GreecePwns** on Thu May 03, 2012 12:35 pm

Pretty much what patches said. The ones that stay are mostly Albanian and Macedonians, for geographic reasons mostly.

A clarification on government formation:

If no party wins outright, as is expected, the president gives the biggest group - expected to be New Democracy - three days to form a government. If it fails, the second biggest party would be given a chance, and then the next one, until all parties have had a go.

If they all fail, new elections would be called in about 20-25 days.

This means that if government is not formed after this election, the next one would take place somewhere between June 23-38.

by **BigBallinStalin** on Thu May 03, 2012 1:24 pm

GreecePwns wrote:Pretty much what patches said. The ones that stay are mostly Albanian and Macedonians, for geographic reasons mostly.

A clarification on government formation:
If no party wins outright, as is expected, the president gives the biggest group - expected to be New Democracy - three days to form a government. If it fails, the second biggest party would be given a chance, and then the next one, until all parties have had a go.

If they all fail, new elections would be called in about 20-25 days.

This means that if government is not formed after this election, the next one would take place somewhere between June 23-38.

In other words, if the biggest group did not gain enough votes to legitimately rule the country, then the president decrees that the biggest group must become the government. Autocracy much?

What's the criteria for "forming a government"? Does the president just look around and say, "oh, we have a government now! Good job, New Democracy! Now enjoy your illegally gained power."

Or, does he give the first group (New Democracy) first dibs on forming a coalition government, while the other groups are prohibited from doing so?

by **GreecePwns** on Thu May 03, 2012 1:39 pm

They do not become the government. They get permission for 3 days to negotiate with other parties to form a government together (one that gets a majority of seats by adding the seats of all parties involved together).

In Greece the President is mostly a figurehead (he dissolves Parliament and is Commander in Chief and that's pretty much it).

EDIT: Basically, the last thing you said.

by **BigBallinStalin** on Thu May 03, 2012 1:52 pm

How much of a figurehead is this president if he has command over the Greek Military, can dissolve Parliament, and can arbitrarily determine how the new government will be formed?

Anyway,
Why not just have the coalition-forming be simultaneous? Instead of giving the clear advantage to the New Democracy, why not let all political parties haggle over coalition agreements at the same time?

Essentially, this is "competitive" bidding but only one political party of these exchanges can "supply" government to the buyers, i.e. other political parties. Clearly, the New Democracy would become a monopoly overseeing all the bids. How is this just? How is this remotely democratic?

One possible answer is that the New Democracy party has somehow persuaded the president to enact an policy which is most advantageous for them (a.k.a. rent-seeking). (This would be wrong if there was a previously established rule for this kind of situation).

by **GreecePwns** on Thu May 03, 2012 4:26 pm

This rule has existed for a long time and probably exists in most parliaments (don't quote me on that, my one example that I know of is Belgium).

Technically, everyone is negotiating with everyone at the same time in the background, but for the first 3 days, New Democracy gets the right to declare a government if they can strike a deal with other parties. The idea is that the "winner" deserve to be in government. If they don't, whoever comes in second will get this power for 3 days (while the ones below them continue to negotiate.

I agree with you, just playing devil's advocate.

by **BigBallinStalin** on Thu May 03, 2012 5:13 pm

I got'cha, and thanks for playing devil's advocate.

by **GreecePwns** on Sat May 05, 2012 11:21 pm

Polls are now open in Greece (from 7AM to 7PM local time). I'll try to update this by tomorrow morning EST with some exit polls. I leave you with a reposting of the final opinion poll published before the election (April 20th) and what might come next.

New Democracy 21.5%
PASOK 14.0%
SYRIZA 13%
KKE 11%
Independent Greeks 11%
Democratic Left 9.5%
Golden Dawn 5.5%
Greens 3.5%
LAOS 3%
----------------------------------------------
Democratic Alliance 2%
Anticapitalist Left Cooperation for the Overthrow 1.0
All others >1%

This yields the following Parliament:
New Democracy 108
PASOK 39 (Big 2 combined: 147)
SYRIZA 35
KKE 30
Independent Greeks 30
Democratic Left 26
Golden Dawn 15
Greens 9
LAOS 8

How I predict government formation talks will go:
Days 1-3 (ND): Aggressive courting of PASOK first and if talks succeed (assuming they don't have 151) Democratic Left next
Days 3-6 (PASOK): If they haven't agreed with ND yet, continued negotiations with them exclusively for the rest of the time.
Days 7-9 (SYRIZA): Talks with Democratic Left, KKE and Greens to form a leftist coalition government (they've been running on this idea since the beginning)
Days 10-12 (KKE): Nothing. They refuse to partner with any other party (at least openly).
Days 13-15 (Independent Greeks): They're on an island ideologically, really. Can't see them doing much with their time.
Days 16-18 (Golden Dawn): Nothing for obvious reasons.
Days 19-21 (Greens): New kids on the block who will probably jump at any chance to be in government (except one with ND+PASOK). Still, their limited power means nothing.
Days 21-24 (LAOS): Only 8 seats, probably nothing coming from them.

So its either ND+PASOK or another election next month.

by **GreecePwns** on Sun May 06, 2012 10:43 am

First exit polls by TV networks will be released in around half an hour, with no official results coming until around 9PM local time (15 minutes from now).

From news website Kathimerini's live blog of the election: The leaders of the two main parties, socialist PASOK and conservative New Democracy, have been holding emergency meetings with party officials, according to Skai radio which reported "few smiling faces."

by **GreecePwns** on Sun May 06, 2012 11:19 am

Early exit polls are showing SYRIZA in a shocking dead heat with ND for first place! ND has likely secured less than 20 percent of the vote (17-20%) with SYRIZA at 15.5-18.5% and PASOK at 14-17%. Golden Dawn have also outperformed their opinion polling at 6-8%. None of the 5 indicate there will be a coalition government.

But if SYRIZA wins, the story is entirely different.

On the other hand, Democratic Left will be disappointed, with only 4.5-6.5%. The middle of each party's range of possibilities is below:

ND 18.5% (103 seats)
SYRIZA 17 (48)
PASOK 15.5 (43)
Independent Greeks 11 (31)
KKE 8 (23)
Golden Dawn 7 (20)
Democratic Left 5.5 (16)
Greens 3 (8)
LAOS 3 (8)

The only situation in which there is a ND+PASOK government is if both the Greens and LAOS do not make it in.

by **saxitoxin** on Sun May 06, 2012 12:38 pm

GP - are you allowed to vote in Greek elections? Who did you vote for or, if not, for whom would you have voted?

by **GreecePwns** on Sun May 06, 2012 2:14 pm

Unfortunately, the diaspora cannot vote in elections. I would have voted for SYRIZA.

The following site is the official election results (updated as more voting sites report results; currently ~25% of sites have reported)
http://ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012a/public/index.html?lang=en

by **GreecePwns** on Sun May 06, 2012 4:15 pm

Reporting 50,34 %
New Democracy 112 seats and 20,02 %
SYRIZA 49 seats and 16,06 %
PASOK 42 seats and 13,79 %
Independent Greeks 32 seats and 10,44 %
KKE 26 seats and 8,38 %
Golden Dawn 21 seats and 6,86 %
Democratic Left 18 seats and 6,00 %
LAOS 2,88 %
Greens 2,82 %
Democratic Alliance 2,55 %

The ND+PASOK coalition has 153 right now. LAOS and Greens have been moving up as more report. They both could make it in.

by **GreecePwns** on Sun May 06, 2012 6:24 pm

Reporting 76,72 %

ND 110 seats 19,58 %
SYRIZA 50 seats 16,39 %
PASOK 42 seats 13,51 %
Independent Greeks 32 seats 10,50 %
KKE 26 seats 8,38 %
Golden Dawn 21 seats 6,90 %
Democratic Left 19 seats 6,05 %
Greens 2,88 %
LAOS 2,87 %
Democratic Alliance 2,58 %

It looks more like the Greens and LAOS won't make it in. ND and PASOK numbers are both down, with PASOK only .03% from losing another seat, putting the two parties' total at exactly 151, which would be exactly enough. If they go down to 150, they would not be able to form a coalition government alone.