Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

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Re: Greek Election Campaigns Season Begins; Election May 6th

Postby maxfaraday on Sun May 06, 2012 8:07 pm

GreecePwns wrote:This rule has existed for a long time and probably exists in most parliaments (don't quote me on that, my one example that I know of is Belgium).


You're in deep shit then...
Belgium stayed withouth a Governement for like a year (it didn't seem to bother them though)...
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Re: First Greek Exit Polls Indicate 1st Place Still Undecide

Postby GreecePwns on Sun May 06, 2012 8:19 pm

Saxi, heres a quick outline:

Thanking the voters.
Samaras took our anti-immigration position and we're happy he cannot form a government and he is a hypocrite for changing his mind and trying to form coalition ("the Austerity Junta")
"A Greece free from immigrants (at one other point he used 'the stench') and from the memorandum"
"Veni, vidi, vici!" Yes, he actually said this. "You (the media) attacked us, you isolated us, you shut us out, but I beat you!...and the struggle will continue inside and outside of Parliament."

The big bodyguard looking guy on the left is soooo them. They've got a gang of thugs who harass immigrants and they don't deny it (they excuse it because they do occasional community service for ethnic Greeks.

An earlier quote: ‘I am not a fascist, I am a nationalist. Hitler was a great personality, but as a Greek I would fight him. We should send the illegal immigrants to the UN seat in New York’
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby GreecePwns on Mon May 07, 2012 12:38 am

Reporting 98,63 % (essentially the final results)

New Democracy 108 seats 18,89 %
SYRIZA 52 seats 16,76 %
PASOK 41 seats 13,20 %
Independent Greeks 33 seats 10,59 %
KKE 26 seats 8,48 %
Golden Dawn 21 seats 6,97 %
Democratic Left 19 seats 6,10 %
Greens 2,93 %
LAOS 2,90 %
Democratic Alliance 2,56 %

The coalition is dead now, at 149 seats. The Greens are officially out, despite making late gains. I expect these results will yield another election in one month's time.

The big winners were SYRIZA and Golden Dawn, who vastly outperformed their opinion polls.
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby Phatscotty on Mon May 07, 2012 12:42 am

no comments about Greece's debt? Is the debt still growing? has the growth slowed? Is the debt actually being addressed, or is it being ignored more than ever?

Came across some comments from an enlightened person with an excellent track record concerning Greece and the Golden Dawn party. Thought you might enjoy it, and also if you any comments about these comments please voice them. Cool to have a voice who is in the middle of it all. Thanks for this thread

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9b01KZ82GO8&t=7m05s
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby GreecePwns on Mon May 07, 2012 1:00 am

Image

And seriously, Geert Wilders? Scotty did you even bother to look this guy up?
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby saxitoxin on Mon May 07, 2012 1:08 am

....
Last edited by saxitoxin on Mon May 07, 2012 6:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby Phatscotty on Mon May 07, 2012 1:10 am

GreecePwns wrote:Image

And seriously, Geert Wilders? Scotty did you even bother to look this guy up?


No. I just asked you :)

And it looks like your debt is still rising....how have yall not addressed that yet?
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby comic boy on Mon May 07, 2012 9:06 am

Greek
I understand the appeal of the anti austerity groups but what is their actual manifesto , pulling out of the Euro and devaluation of the Drachma or are they banking on more bailouts/ debt write offs ?
Im a TOFU miSfit
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby GreecePwns on Mon May 07, 2012 9:56 am

Here's a nice summary of all the top parties. (PDF)

KKE: Greece should exit the eurozone and the EU, introduce a 45 percent tax rate for major capital, end armament deals that serve Nato needs and implement central planning for production

SYRIZA: Suspend the servicing of the debt, negotiate to erase a large portion of the public debt, add a pro-growth clause to the repayment of the rest of the debt; tax the wealthy, reduce armaments, combat corruption

Democratic Left: Reduce state expenditures for armaments and medicine, combat tax evasion effectively, reduce the public deficit more progressively, widen the tax base and impose heavier taxes on the wealthy and on capital

Greens: Redesign and improve tax system, reduce military expenditures, end economic privileges of the church, prioritise green economy, reduce tax for small & medium-sized enterprises

Independent Greeks: Create a new government-owned Greek investment bank, and transfer into it the property of the state, pension funds, state-owned public utilities, gold and money from all dormant accounts in banks

LAOS: Introduce a second currency for two years: use the eurodrachma for domestic transactions and keep the euro for transactions abroad; impose duties on imports

Golden Dawn: Denounce the memorandum, refuse to pay the odious public debt, nationalise the banks, exploit the hydrocarbons in the Greek seas, abolish party funding by the state
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby GreecePwns on Mon May 07, 2012 10:09 am

First ND leader Antonis Samaras called the Independent Greeks first, who declined to even sit at a table with them.
Then he called the Democratic Left, and they will meet shortly, but the Democratic Left refuses to join coalition.
Then he called the KKE, and Aleka Papariga just stopped short of telling him to f*ck off.
Then he called SYRIZA, and Alexis Tsipras just stopped short of telling him to f*ck off.
Then he met with PASOK, and the meeting with Democratic Left is next.
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby MeDeFe on Mon May 07, 2012 11:33 am

I came across a nifty diagram that shows the percentage of votes that went to which party, and how many seats each party has.

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012a/public/index.html#

And the system is fucked. ND has twice the seats of SYRIZA despite being only 2 percentage points ahead, I also read that even if SYRIZA had won they wouldn't have gotten the seats because they're a coalition of parties and not a single party. Is that correct? And 20% of the voters won't be represented at all because they parties they voted for received less than 3% each, 2 of them missed the mark by only a few hundred votes, those 20% are pretty much the bonus seats ND gets.

Elections are far from perfect here, too, but damn, that system is nearly as bad as the British way of winner taking it all.
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby GreecePwns on Mon May 07, 2012 1:07 pm

The system gives 50 seats to the winner so we don't ever end up in a Belgium-like situation without a government. The rest are proportionally given. Without it, ND would have 58 to SYRIZA's 52. It's not perfect, but it really didn't matter before this election. Ironically, it still isn't enough to help form any government. SYRIZA would have gotten the seats if they won, since they ran the election under one banner as they always do.

And 20%? How much would it be in a winner-take-all system? As many as 49% can be unrepresented and it usually is more than 20%. Throughout the opinion polling period, the number unrepresented was projected to be around 9-10%, so that was unexpected.

The Greens missed Parliament by ~4500 votes.
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby GreecePwns on Tue May 08, 2012 12:28 pm

ND leader Antonis Samaras has given up; he has passed the government formation mandate onto SYRIZA's Alexis Tsipras. Tsipras has outlined his foundation for coalition government.

* The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that will impoverish Greeks further, such as cuts to pensions and salaries.
* The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that undermine fundamental workers' rights, such as the abolition of collective labor agreements.
* The immediate abolition of a law granting MPs immunity from prosecution, reform of the electoral law and a general overhaul of the political system.
* An investigation into Greek banks, and the immediate publication of the audit performed on the Greek banking sector by BlackRock.
* The setting up of an international auditing committee to investigate the causes of Greece's public deficit, with a moratorium on all debt servicing until the findings of the audit are published.

Democratic Left has accepted and said they will join any coalition government SYRIZA proposes (me reading between the lines: possibly the parties will run as one in the new election next month as they had in every one before 2012, giving them the 50-seat bonus easily). KKE has refused to talk to SYRIZA.
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Re: Greek Vote Produces No Clear Gov't, Possible June Electi

Postby MeDeFe on Wed May 09, 2012 3:08 am

GreecePwns wrote:The system gives 50 seats to the winner so we don't ever end up in a Belgium-like situation without a government.

You are in a Belgium-like situation despite those 50 bonus seats, the winner of the election (or more accurately: The party that just barely got the most votes) failed to form a government.
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Re: GRE Gov't Formation: SYRIZA Outlines its Plans, Gets Sup

Postby GreecePwns on Wed May 09, 2012 11:11 am

Well yeah, when the leading party gets 18% of the vote, you should expect that no matter what kind of system you have. In every other election (where 2 parties had a combined ~80% of the vote) it just gave the winner a clear majority.

Another rule that I actually did not know (since The Third Republic has not seen such fragmentation in Parliament): A minority government can be formed with 120 seats, as long as it passes a vote of confidence. ND said they would support a SYRIZA minority government in this way.
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Re: GRE Gov't Formation: SYRIZA Outlines its Plans, Gets Sup

Postby Baron Von PWN on Thu May 10, 2012 8:49 am

So what will your gov look like? SYRZIA-DL- ????

How will Syria get to 120 seats?
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Re: GRE Gov't Formation: SYRIZA Outlines its Plans, Gets Sup

Postby GreecePwns on Thu May 10, 2012 10:27 am

They will not. They have given up the formation mandate to PASOK, who will probably do nothing with it.

99.9% chance that there is a second election next month.
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Re: Poll Projects SYRIZA Win in 2nd Greek Election

Postby GreecePwns on Thu May 10, 2012 2:29 pm

AthensNews.gr wrote:9.26pm Here are the results of a Marc poll, conducted two days after the elections and aired by Alpha TV. Syriza are still growing in power it seems, while all other parties are losing voters. the breakdown is as follows:

Syriza - 27.7 (128 seats)
New Democracy - 20.3 (57 seats)
Pasok - 12.6 (36 seats)
Independent Greeks - 10.2 (29 seats)
KKE 7 (20 seats)
Golden Dawn 5.7 (16 seats)
Democratic Left 4.9 (14 seats)


My take: This election has always been about the establishment parties vs. some sort of alternative, and because of the emergence of several breakaway parties, finding an alternative to stand up to the establishment parties was difficult. Because SYRIZA performed so well in the first election, those who were in search of any alternative to the status quo have rallied around them. It also seems that this poll did not include parties like the Greens and others outside of Parliament, so I might be wrong.
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Re: Poll Projects SYRIZA Win in 2nd Greek Election

Postby GreecePwns on Sat May 12, 2012 2:10 pm

In a last ditch effort to avoid another election, President Papoulias has called all party leaders into his office for the weekend to forge a deal for a unity government himself. ND and PASOK are actively courting Democratic Left to join in coalition with them for a government to last 2 years at the most, according to PASOK chief Venizelos.

Meanwhile, the ECB and Merkel cabinet are backing off their stringent "complete austerity or no aid" position. Merkel's Finance Minister, after near-daily comments stating that Greece must accept the terms in the Memorandum to the letter, said he was open to including measures to incentivize growth (because as we know, growing the Greek economy was not priority #1 for the troika). Both major parties have changed their stances as well, saying they would want to renegotiate the Memorandum to include growth measures as well (because as we know, growing the Greek economy was no priority #1 for them either).
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Re: Its Technocracy or 2nd Election for Greece, Decided Tomo

Postby GreecePwns on Mon May 14, 2012 5:20 pm

Today President Papoulias continued his role as mediator today. He invited the leaders of ND, PASOK, DL and SYRIZA to meet in his office today, but SYRIZA refused to meet. Democratic Left refused to enter government with SYRIZA joining, and ND and PASOK agreed that it is necessary for SYRIZA to join in a government committed to the Euro if is to be a legitimate one. The goal is to create a unity government to last two years, the time where European elections will be held and all the Memorandum measures will have been implemented. Tsipras responded harshly, saying he "would not like to legitimize a Memorandum the Greek people have de-legitimized." Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis said that because of this, he refuses to cooperate SYRIZA should another election occur, and that a government of the left that Tsipras wishes for is an arrogant idea.

My take on this: As you guys can see, Kouvelis has flip-flopped between supporting SYRIZA and the other two. Depending on who he's talking to he says different things. The other two parties are indeed arrogant if they believe that Tsipras will join government without even considering any of his positions. I predict that should another election take place and SYRIZA get the 50 seat bonus he will seriously consider entering a government of the left.

Papoulias then suggested to the three parties that met with him that a government of "personalities" be formed - one of technocrats and politicians with wide appeal, as Kathimerini newspaper described it.

He also met with the heads of Independent Greeks and the KKE, but no progress was made with them as expected.

Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

If nothing is resolved tomorrow we are guaranteed a second election. The most recent opinion polls averaged project the following Parliament:

SYRIZA 125
ND 59
PASOK 38
Independent Greeks 29
KKE 19
Golden Dawn 15
Democratic Left 15

SYRIZA is guaranteed at least a minority government if it can get a vote of confidence.
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Re: Its Technocracy or 2nd Election for Greece, Decided Tomo

Postby saxitoxin on Tue May 15, 2012 1:14 am

GreecePwns wrote:
Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.


That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.
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Re: Second Greek Election to Come Next Month

Postby GreecePwns on Tue May 15, 2012 4:02 pm

Meet Nikolaos Mihaloliakos, the head of Golden Dawn
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Re: Its Technocracy or 2nd Election for Greece, Decided Tomo

Postby Fruitcake on Tue May 15, 2012 4:44 pm

saxitoxin wrote:
GreecePwns wrote:
Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.


That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.


Betting on a Euro slide already has been a bargain hunters dream, Not only that, betting on the break up has been the same. Sold some sizeable market bets today to Paddy Power that I took out last year at at mind numbingly huge odds on the Euro breaking up ...the price then was quite breathtaking, I truly thought all my Christmases had come at once. Phoned my account Manager yesterday evening late and offered them to him at a tenth of the risk price (so ten times the cost price), he was on it first thing this morning and I see they are now offering severe odds on the Euro break up by 2015! Played the hedge by taking a position on Intrade but it's small potatoes now. The best the markets have to offer is even money a country will announce exit from the Euro by December 31 this year. They wont even take bets on Greece leaving the system any more, it has become what the betting population like to call a 'dead cert'.

To listen to the Eurocrats promising that this would never happen is amusing to any one with a smidgen of intelligence. Once again we are seeing the pygmy Political classes being well and truly crushed by the market forces and long may it last. Hopefully the momentum building in Europe will send this present bunch of smug, self opinionated, self satisfied wankers into oblivion once and for all. Greece should take the pain, get the hell out of Dodge and leave the Bondholders to pick up the pieces...the German/French axis can't abide that thought as most of those toxic bonds are held by their institutions now anyway with those nasty verminous Anglo Saxon bunch having dumped their exposures to the Euro zone banking groups some time ago. With a bit of luck Spain will stop creaking soon and start splitting wide open...then watch every one run for the hills.

Last year I started posting rates of sovereign bonds somewhere in this forum, can't be bothered to find them now, but if you go back there and see what was on offer back then compared to now it will shock you how bad things have become. Greece now has to pay an eye watering 24%+ on its ten year bonds...this ain't never going to happen so collapse is well and truly factored in.
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Due to current economic conditions the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off
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Re: Its Technocracy or 2nd Election for Greece, Decided Tomo

Postby saxitoxin on Wed May 16, 2012 10:44 am

Fruitcake wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:
GreecePwns wrote:
Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.


That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.


Betting on a Euro slide already has been a bargain hunters dream, Not only that, betting on the break up has been the same. Sold some sizeable market bets today to Paddy Power that I took out last year at at mind numbingly huge odds on the Euro breaking up ...the price then was quite breathtaking, I truly thought all my Christmases had come at once. Phoned my account Manager yesterday evening late and offered them to him at a tenth of the risk price (so ten times the cost price), he was on it first thing this morning and I see they are now offering severe odds on the Euro break up by 2015! Played the hedge by taking a position on Intrade but it's small potatoes now. The best the markets have to offer is even money a country will announce exit from the Euro by December 31 this year. They wont even take bets on Greece leaving the system any more, it has become what the betting population like to call a 'dead cert'.

To listen to the Eurocrats promising that this would never happen is amusing to any one with a smidgen of intelligence. Once again we are seeing the pygmy Political classes being well and truly crushed by the market forces and long may it last. Hopefully the momentum building in Europe will send this present bunch of smug, self opinionated, self satisfied wankers into oblivion once and for all. Greece should take the pain, get the hell out of Dodge and leave the Bondholders to pick up the pieces...the German/French axis can't abide that thought as most of those toxic bonds are held by their institutions now anyway with those nasty verminous Anglo Saxon bunch having dumped their exposures to the Euro zone banking groups some time ago. With a bit of luck Spain will stop creaking soon and start splitting wide open...then watch every one run for the hills.

Last year I started posting rates of sovereign bonds somewhere in this forum, can't be bothered to find them now, but if you go back there and see what was on offer back then compared to now it will shock you how bad things have become. Greece now has to pay an eye watering 24%+ on its ten year bonds...this ain't never going to happen so collapse is well and truly factored in.


Well, Mr. Doom & Gloom, "a senior executive at a large Greek bank told Reuters: 'There is no bank run, no queues or panic. The situation is better than I expected.'"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/ ... me=topNews
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Re: Second Greek Election to Come June 17

Postby saxitoxin on Wed May 16, 2012 10:44 am

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