PLAYER57832 wrote:What sets China apart is that they actually plan for their society persisting more than just 10 years down the road.
China's long term plan wasn't about boom and bust cycles; it was about long term growth. So you can't have it both ways; you have to go with the linear growth model of central planning or the cyclical nature of the markets.
I see. and you can carry this model out for what... 10 years? at most
. China thinks in centuries, not years.
tzor wrote:I would disagree with you on one point; perpetual growth (in the long term average) is certainly possible and certainly desirable, because technology itself promotes that growth. Example: "Napoleon III of France is reputed to have given a banquet where the most honoured guests were given aluminium utensils, while the others made do with gold." Today it is a metal we use in beverage cans.
bacteria in a test tube. Bacteria in a test tube....
tzor wrote: If you believe in the inevibility of cycles, you need to believe and trust more in the free market than central planning, because the central planners never see the event comming and react too slowly.
Free markets don't plan at all. They are quite happy to destroy the future of everyone around in order to gain a small profit for the folks at the top.
Many central planners, similarly, are very vested in their own particular futures.
tzor wrote:They say that if the spotters on the Titanic had spotted the iceburg, 5 seconds eariler, the ship would have missed the ice.
They say that if the spotters on the Titanic had spotted the iceburg 5 seconds later, the iceburg would have hit the ship head on, crushing at most 2 of the 5 compartments needed to sink the ship.
But they spotted it just right and the Titanic side swiped the iceburg tearing enough compartments to sink the ship.
Timing is everything. Central planners simply can't time anything. Sometimes just hitting the iceburg is the best solution.
hmm... and by what magic do you imagine that the market will somehow protect the Gulf of Mexico from another oil disaster.. or even just fix the damage already done?
Sure, you can accomplish a lot when you ignore negative consequences. That's normally called "propoganda", not "truth", but when its business.. suddenly we are to believe that a free flow of information just magically happens, and all the players just willingly "do the right thing" and everything magically works out when the big guys are making their money.
Except.. it turns out that the real world markets are really just another form of controlled economy... but controlled for a bigger group of people.
And none of that has to do with why China will likely rise above the west in the next several decades.