Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby crispybits on Sat Dec 08, 2012 4:18 pm

If it's legalised it will become an industry like any other, but there will also be multiple entrants into the market.

So the downwards pressure on prices from competition, coupled with the downward pressures on cost of supply due to economies of scale, will (to an unknown extent) balance out the upward pressure on prices due to extra taxes. Whether that means the price ends up higher or lower than on the black market is debatable, but I suspect it will not be significantly more than the black market because the black market will still be there in some form providing extra competition too. The guy who grows weed in his wardrobe illegally and makes a profit on it and gets his for free in the bargain won't stop just because the shop down the road can do it, unless the shop down the road can do it cheaper than him and takes all his customers.
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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby Phatscotty on Sat Dec 08, 2012 4:24 pm

crispybits wrote:If it's legalised it will become an industry like any other, but there will also be multiple entrants into the market.

So the downwards pressure on prices from competition, coupled with the downward pressures on cost of supply due to economies of scale, will (to an unknown extent) balance out the upward pressure on prices due to extra taxes. Whether that means the price ends up higher or lower than on the black market is debatable, but I suspect it will not be significantly more than the black market because the black market will still be there in some form providing extra competition too. The guy who grows weed in his wardrobe illegally and makes a profit on it and gets his for free in the bargain won't stop just because the shop down the road can do it, unless the shop down the road can do it cheaper than him and takes all his customers.


I understand all that. I just bet that isn't how it happens, and that prices will be a lot higher in the short term (3-5 years)

Cigarettes more than doubled in a very short time, some places even tripled. My main point is and has been "Nobody cares about the smokers". It's self explanatory how this all ends up. Yes, in theory, if we had good government and economic Liberty, sounds great. We do not have that though.
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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby MegaProphet on Sat Dec 08, 2012 5:14 pm

Phatscotty wrote:
crispybits wrote:If it's legalised it will become an industry like any other, but there will also be multiple entrants into the market.

So the downwards pressure on prices from competition, coupled with the downward pressures on cost of supply due to economies of scale, will (to an unknown extent) balance out the upward pressure on prices due to extra taxes. Whether that means the price ends up higher or lower than on the black market is debatable, but I suspect it will not be significantly more than the black market because the black market will still be there in some form providing extra competition too. The guy who grows weed in his wardrobe illegally and makes a profit on it and gets his for free in the bargain won't stop just because the shop down the road can do it, unless the shop down the road can do it cheaper than him and takes all his customers.


I understand all that. I just bet that isn't how it happens, and that prices will be a lot higher in the short term (3-5 years)

Cigarettes more than doubled in a very short time, some places even tripled. My main point is and has been "Nobody cares about the smokers". It's self explanatory how this all ends up. Yes, in theory, if we had good government and economic Liberty, sounds great. We do not have that though.

So what would your solution be? What would you suggest to keep prices from rising?
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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby crispybits on Sat Dec 08, 2012 5:27 pm

Also, cigarettes aren't easy for people to grow in their basement or cupboard. Pot is. The existing black market will regulate the emerging white market in terms of price to start with and that effect wasnt present for cigarettes to the same extent (illegal smuggled ones from Mexico or wherever notwithstanding, there weren't growers in every town)
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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby Phatscotty on Sat Dec 08, 2012 5:39 pm

crispybits wrote:Also, cigarettes aren't easy for people to grow in their basement or cupboard. Pot is. The existing black market will regulate the emerging white market in terms of price to start with and that effect wasnt present for cigarettes to the same extent (illegal smuggled ones from Mexico or wherever notwithstanding, there weren't growers in every town)


Forgive me I do not recall the proper terminology I am trying to describe, but it's the kind of market where it doesn't matter how much something cost to produce/distribute, it mostly matters how much you can get for it/how much people are willing to pay, or more specifically how much you need for it.

Think of a passport, or a drivers license. Does it really cost 135$/28$ to produce? Or even a Louis Vuitton bag...

Smoking/buying/growing marijuana, even after legalization, will be considered a privilege/luxury Prices can get pretty blurry in this area. If I can make a summary/comparison, the same thing that happened to the price of tobacco and cigarettes will happen to marijuana.
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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby MegaProphet on Sat Dec 08, 2012 6:27 pm

Phatscotty wrote:
crispybits wrote:Also, cigarettes aren't easy for people to grow in their basement or cupboard. Pot is. The existing black market will regulate the emerging white market in terms of price to start with and that effect wasnt present for cigarettes to the same extent (illegal smuggled ones from Mexico or wherever notwithstanding, there weren't growers in every town)


Forgive me I do not recall the proper terminology I am trying to describe, but it's the kind of market where it doesn't matter how much something cost to produce/distribute, it mostly matters how much you can get for it/how much people are willing to pay, or more specifically how much you need for it.

Think of a passport, or a drivers license. Does it really cost 135$/28$ to produce? Or even a Louis Vuitton bag...

Smoking/buying/growing marijuana, even after legalization, will be considered a privilege/luxury Prices can get pretty blurry in this area. If I can make a summary/comparison, the same thing that happened to the price of tobacco and cigarettes will happen to marijuana.

Why would marijuana be considered a luxury product? It isn't an established brand like Louis Vuitton and it doesn't require being authorized by the government like a passport or drivers license. I'm having difficulty finding examples of cigarette prices doubling or tripling. The most I can find is the fact that prices increased due to trusts early in the 20th century. Can you point me to your source?
Again I'm curious what you suggest to keep prices from rising? I think the possibility of going to jail is a much heftier price than any tax
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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby Phatscotty on Sat Dec 08, 2012 6:30 pm

The source is a pack of cigarettes costed 2$ a few year ago, and now they are 5-7$ In New York, they are 10$.
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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby MegaProphet on Sat Dec 08, 2012 6:51 pm

Phatscotty wrote:The source is a pack of cigarettes costed 2$ a few year ago, and now they are 5-7$ In New York, they are 10$.

Ah, I didn't realize you meant recently. I don't have much experience with cigarettes
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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby Phatscotty on Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:00 pm

MegaProphet wrote:
Phatscotty wrote:The source is a pack of cigarettes costed 2$ a few year ago, and now they are 5-7$ In New York, they are 10$.

Ah, I didn't realize you meant recently. I don't have much experience with cigarettes


It's a key example that my opinions are based on. I'm gonna go bag me some poon in a bit here, but I'll try to bring up some links tomorrow.
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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby Nola_Lifer on Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:46 pm

Phatscotty wrote:
Nola_Lifer wrote:What scientist would you call in that cost 200k a year? This is a plant like any other crop that can be grown. Marijuana growers are as serious about their plants as tomato growers. There isn't that much regulation on growing a farm unless your trying to get certified organic. So scientist, laboratories and warehouses are out of the question unless you see marijuana grown on a large more corporate/industrial scale. Transportation won't be a problem either because of the proximity of growers to urban areas. Lets face it you can grow this shit in you back yard or in a closet at a very low cost. The people who will reap the most reward will be the hemp growers but this isn't what we are talking about. :D

The prices will most likely be the same, if anything they will drop. You will have lots of people treating this as a gold rush so more people will grow weed who weren't before, regardless of whether they smoke it or not. You will also see more dispensaries which probably won't be as regulated as most tobacco shops. You'll probably find that most tobacco shops will be ahead of the games due to the similar products.


Beer brewers are serious about their beer too. It doesn't make them competitors in the marketplace


Marijuana is a crop. Beer is a mix of crops. Even if you have to buy those items it is pretty cheap to brew your own beer. The prices won't change that much. Even if they do people will still buy it. You'd be surprised on how easy it is to grow. Also the curing process isn't that difficult either.
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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby Funkyterrance on Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:50 pm

Nola_Lifer wrote:
Phatscotty wrote:
Nola_Lifer wrote:What scientist would you call in that cost 200k a year? This is a plant like any other crop that can be grown. Marijuana growers are as serious about their plants as tomato growers. There isn't that much regulation on growing a farm unless your trying to get certified organic. So scientist, laboratories and warehouses are out of the question unless you see marijuana grown on a large more corporate/industrial scale. Transportation won't be a problem either because of the proximity of growers to urban areas. Lets face it you can grow this shit in you back yard or in a closet at a very low cost. The people who will reap the most reward will be the hemp growers but this isn't what we are talking about. :D

The prices will most likely be the same, if anything they will drop. You will have lots of people treating this as a gold rush so more people will grow weed who weren't before, regardless of whether they smoke it or not. You will also see more dispensaries which probably won't be as regulated as most tobacco shops. You'll probably find that most tobacco shops will be ahead of the games due to the similar products.


Beer brewers are serious about their beer too. It doesn't make them competitors in the marketplace


Marijuana is a crop. Beer is a mix of crops. Even if you have to buy those items it is pretty cheap to brew your own beer. The prices won't change that much. Even if they do people will still buy it. You'd be surprised on how easy it is to grow. Also the curing process isn't that difficult either.


No one is questioning your expertise in the matter but we are talking about economics here. I've been thinking on this and the price will actually most likely stay pretty high, regardless of the ease of production. It's going to be regulated so the red tape will prevail.
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Postby 2dimes on Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:53 pm

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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby Phatscotty on Sat Dec 08, 2012 8:48 pm

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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby Nola_Lifer on Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:17 pm

Phatscotty wrote:Image


Point of this is?????

I just don't seem the prices going up unless they price fix or allocate a random number of distributes.
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Re: Colorado passes legalization of recreational pot,

Postby patches70 on Sat Dec 08, 2012 10:36 pm

I don't know about the current prices of weed through the illegal drug trade. Thing is, since it's illegal, the drug dealers have the monopoly on the prices. Weed was pretty dang expensive back in the day (unless you were buying rag weed), but I don't know about current prices as it's been many years since I've bothered with weed.

Whatever the price of weed will be when it's legally cultivated and taxed, will be far less than what drug dealers charge. The drug dealers won't be able to compete.

Maybe someone can enlighten me on the new laws, as I'm too lazy to look them up. Is it legal (in said states) for a person to grow their own weed in their own home for their personal consumption? I mean, if one is doing that what taxes would one have to pay, if any?
If one were growing and selling it (legally) then yeah, one would have to pay taxes on the sale of said weed.
Is it that if you want to grow your own for yourself, one must get a license from the State? Even for just strictly personal consumption?
Is so, how much does that cost?

I'm just curious. Once large scale producers get online and are growing large quantities (legally) and selling it legally, as more and more companies get into this competition will drive the prices down and raise the quality very quickly. If allowed to operated even semi freely. I'd think.

When it comes to weed, and if it were legal, I still wouldn't buy it. I'd sure as hell grow my own though, as long as I knew I wouldn't get busted. I wouldn't sell it, it'd be for myself.
I've never agreed with the marijuana laws, not one bit. But I've grown wise enough to comply regardless. Less problems that way. But if it were legal, hell yeah, I'd fire up in a heartbeat. But until then, when I can grow my own legally, I'll have to avoid potheads and not partake. Catching a buzz just ain't worth breaking the law, to me at least. All kinds of messy problems end up arising, not to mention I hate dealing with drug dealers. :twisted: Greedy, scumbag fuckers every single one of them, without exception.
(If you sell drugs and are reading this, yeah, that means you to, ya rat bastard).
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