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crispybits wrote:If it's legalised it will become an industry like any other, but there will also be multiple entrants into the market.
So the downwards pressure on prices from competition, coupled with the downward pressures on cost of supply due to economies of scale, will (to an unknown extent) balance out the upward pressure on prices due to extra taxes. Whether that means the price ends up higher or lower than on the black market is debatable, but I suspect it will not be significantly more than the black market because the black market will still be there in some form providing extra competition too. The guy who grows weed in his wardrobe illegally and makes a profit on it and gets his for free in the bargain won't stop just because the shop down the road can do it, unless the shop down the road can do it cheaper than him and takes all his customers.
Phatscotty wrote:crispybits wrote:If it's legalised it will become an industry like any other, but there will also be multiple entrants into the market.
So the downwards pressure on prices from competition, coupled with the downward pressures on cost of supply due to economies of scale, will (to an unknown extent) balance out the upward pressure on prices due to extra taxes. Whether that means the price ends up higher or lower than on the black market is debatable, but I suspect it will not be significantly more than the black market because the black market will still be there in some form providing extra competition too. The guy who grows weed in his wardrobe illegally and makes a profit on it and gets his for free in the bargain won't stop just because the shop down the road can do it, unless the shop down the road can do it cheaper than him and takes all his customers.
I understand all that. I just bet that isn't how it happens, and that prices will be a lot higher in the short term (3-5 years)
Cigarettes more than doubled in a very short time, some places even tripled. My main point is and has been "Nobody cares about the smokers". It's self explanatory how this all ends up. Yes, in theory, if we had good government and economic Liberty, sounds great. We do not have that though.
crispybits wrote:Also, cigarettes aren't easy for people to grow in their basement or cupboard. Pot is. The existing black market will regulate the emerging white market in terms of price to start with and that effect wasnt present for cigarettes to the same extent (illegal smuggled ones from Mexico or wherever notwithstanding, there weren't growers in every town)
Phatscotty wrote:crispybits wrote:Also, cigarettes aren't easy for people to grow in their basement or cupboard. Pot is. The existing black market will regulate the emerging white market in terms of price to start with and that effect wasnt present for cigarettes to the same extent (illegal smuggled ones from Mexico or wherever notwithstanding, there weren't growers in every town)
Forgive me I do not recall the proper terminology I am trying to describe, but it's the kind of market where it doesn't matter how much something cost to produce/distribute, it mostly matters how much you can get for it/how much people are willing to pay, or more specifically how much you need for it.
Think of a passport, or a drivers license. Does it really cost 135$/28$ to produce? Or even a Louis Vuitton bag...
Smoking/buying/growing marijuana, even after legalization, will be considered a privilege/luxury Prices can get pretty blurry in this area. If I can make a summary/comparison, the same thing that happened to the price of tobacco and cigarettes will happen to marijuana.
Phatscotty wrote:The source is a pack of cigarettes costed 2$ a few year ago, and now they are 5-7$ In New York, they are 10$.
MegaProphet wrote:Phatscotty wrote:The source is a pack of cigarettes costed 2$ a few year ago, and now they are 5-7$ In New York, they are 10$.
Ah, I didn't realize you meant recently. I don't have much experience with cigarettes
Phatscotty wrote:Nola_Lifer wrote:What scientist would you call in that cost 200k a year? This is a plant like any other crop that can be grown. Marijuana growers are as serious about their plants as tomato growers. There isn't that much regulation on growing a farm unless your trying to get certified organic. So scientist, laboratories and warehouses are out of the question unless you see marijuana grown on a large more corporate/industrial scale. Transportation won't be a problem either because of the proximity of growers to urban areas. Lets face it you can grow this shit in you back yard or in a closet at a very low cost. The people who will reap the most reward will be the hemp growers but this isn't what we are talking about.![]()
The prices will most likely be the same, if anything they will drop. You will have lots of people treating this as a gold rush so more people will grow weed who weren't before, regardless of whether they smoke it or not. You will also see more dispensaries which probably won't be as regulated as most tobacco shops. You'll probably find that most tobacco shops will be ahead of the games due to the similar products.
Beer brewers are serious about their beer too. It doesn't make them competitors in the marketplace
Nola_Lifer wrote:Phatscotty wrote:Nola_Lifer wrote:What scientist would you call in that cost 200k a year? This is a plant like any other crop that can be grown. Marijuana growers are as serious about their plants as tomato growers. There isn't that much regulation on growing a farm unless your trying to get certified organic. So scientist, laboratories and warehouses are out of the question unless you see marijuana grown on a large more corporate/industrial scale. Transportation won't be a problem either because of the proximity of growers to urban areas. Lets face it you can grow this shit in you back yard or in a closet at a very low cost. The people who will reap the most reward will be the hemp growers but this isn't what we are talking about.![]()
The prices will most likely be the same, if anything they will drop. You will have lots of people treating this as a gold rush so more people will grow weed who weren't before, regardless of whether they smoke it or not. You will also see more dispensaries which probably won't be as regulated as most tobacco shops. You'll probably find that most tobacco shops will be ahead of the games due to the similar products.
Beer brewers are serious about their beer too. It doesn't make them competitors in the marketplace
Marijuana is a crop. Beer is a mix of crops. Even if you have to buy those items it is pretty cheap to brew your own beer. The prices won't change that much. Even if they do people will still buy it. You'd be surprised on how easy it is to grow. Also the curing process isn't that difficult either.
Phatscotty wrote:
MegaProphet wrote: but in Colorado medical marijuana patients can grow up to 6 plants this privilege will be extended to everyone. You will not need a license to grow for your own consumption.
MegaProphet wrote: but in Colorado medical marijuana patients can grow up to 6 plants this privilege will be extended to everyone. You will not need a license to grow for your own consumption.
Funkyterrance wrote:MegaProphet wrote: but in Colorado medical marijuana patients can grow up to 6 plants this privilege will be extended to everyone. You will not need a license to grow for your own consumption.
This won't work, Nolalifer smokes 6 plants worth in one doobie.
Nola_Lifer wrote:
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A pound for breakfast
MegaProphet wrote:I'm not sure about Washington, but in Colorado medical marijuana patients can grow up to 6 plants this privilege will be extended to everyone. You will not need a license to grow for your own consumption. The current regulations for medical marijuana dispensaries are quite extensive. One regulation that stands out, to me, is you have to have been a Colorado resident for at least 2 years to start up a dispensary and you can't receive investments from out of state. The regulations for recreational marijuana have not been decided on yet, but they will likely be similar to those for medical marijuana. We will know more by July 1, 2013 as it's the date the regulations must be passed.
Phatscotty wrote:can't wait until the state becomes dependent on the tax revenues from pot. The money raised through taxation will most likely get linked to funding children's health or children's education, something that will guarantee little resistance to outrageous tax increases on the pot in the future.
"The tax is only getting raised on the pot heads. we don't give a shit about the stoners! raise the taxes!" Marijuana users will be repeatedly pitted against whatever cause the money funds, and the burnouts aren't going to get many sympathy votes from the legislature.
...and then they will really crack down on "unauthorized sales", because the state does not like competition. And then of course you will only be able to get it on certain days, during certain hours. Don't forget to factor in the cost of all the new regulation into the price of the product. The price stability you have known all your life will double in about 36 months,
Government legalization is the last thing you guys should want. What's the big problem with the way pot is treated now anyways? The price has went down, you can get the shit anywhere, there are no taxes.....sure, you can go to jail or get a ticket, but seriously, does anyone here know someone who is in jail for smoking a joint?
WTF????
The better answer, IMO, is to decriminalize marijuana. Get the government OUT of it. Basically, the exact same argument I have been making about marriage.
Though the hearing Friday dealt primarily with the DUI provisions, West's lawsuit also asserts that the initiative wrongly earmarks tax money raised by regulating marijuana for unrelated services such as primary health and dental care, and that state legislators improperly advocated its passage.
The new rules, which for most marijuana smokers would put them over the legal driving limit for a couple hours after taking two or three hits from a joint, took effect on Thursday.
MegaProphet wrote:Phatscotty wrote:crispybits wrote:Also, cigarettes aren't easy for people to grow in their basement or cupboard. Pot is. The existing black market will regulate the emerging white market in terms of price to start with and that effect wasnt present for cigarettes to the same extent (illegal smuggled ones from Mexico or wherever notwithstanding, there weren't growers in every town)
Forgive me I do not recall the proper terminology I am trying to describe, but it's the kind of market where it doesn't matter how much something cost to produce/distribute, it mostly matters how much you can get for it/how much people are willing to pay, or more specifically how much you need for it.
Think of a passport, or a drivers license. Does it really cost 135$/28$ to produce? Or even a Louis Vuitton bag...
Smoking/buying/growing marijuana, even after legalization, will be considered a privilege/luxury Prices can get pretty blurry in this area. If I can make a summary/comparison, the same thing that happened to the price of tobacco and cigarettes will happen to marijuana.
Why would marijuana be considered a luxury product? It isn't an established brand like Louis Vuitton and it doesn't require being authorized by the government like a passport or drivers license. I'm having difficulty finding examples of cigarette prices doubling or tripling. The most I can find is the fact that prices increased due to trusts early in the 20th century. Can you point me to your source?
Again I'm curious what you suggest to keep prices from rising? I think the possibility of going to jail is a much heftier price than any tax
Phatscotty wrote:
But....now, finally, we can smoke pot! WOOHOO!!
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