gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby Fruitcake on Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:50 am

I am fascinated to see what the effect of this deal will be. As I mentioned previously, to have Capital controls effectively creates a second currency within the Euro.

I'm sure we will hear the usual drivel pushed out by Draghi and his compadres that the Euro is still irreversible, Eurostat will keep pumping out the meaningless numbers including Cyprus and the EU politburo will tell us all the Euro is as stable and glued as it ever was. In the real world we now know different. there are 2 Euro currencies, one for the continental Euro and another for Cyprus.

A most interesting side effect of this will be the likely depreciation of the Cyprus euro versus the continental Euro, which is a floating exchange rate in all but name. I imagine this will alleviate some of the pain induced by the imminent economic collapse in Cyprus which is a good thing. Obviously the Cypriot Euro will be exchanged at par where accepted in the continent, but that traffic will be tiny. More importantly will be the purchasing power of the Cypriot Euro on Cyprus itself. In effect, Cyprus will have gained control of its own currency without all the inherent costs and risks of reverting to the old Cyprus Pound.

Whilst this may seem good news on the surface, there are issues. Firstly, there are going to be shortages of Euros in Cyprus itself due to the capital controls. The Cypriots cannot print their own Euros, this is done in France and the Netherlands for them and shipped over. This means the strict rules regarding numbers of notes printed vis a vis the population will be adhered to. However, there is likely going to be a real need for more hard currency in the system as Cyprus slides back some way to a cash only economy. History shows that when this happens, other currencies fill the gap. There is already a large British presence on the island and it would not surprise me to see shops and businesses quoting in both Euros and Pounds sterling very soon. I can also see the Turkish Lira being used extensively in the northern part of the island.

Add to this the ban on electronic transactions in euros and it does not take a great leap of logic to see e-currencies and mobile money surging. They loop around any capital controls anyway. One can not forecast how the Cyprus Govt or central bank may respond to this. they may welcome the loosening of restrictions due to this or, under increased pressure from the troika may try to clamp down (which would be an error). The reasons for welcoming this stem from increased economic activity. However, one can be pretty certain, the reaction will be as of a result to the pressure on public finances caused by the imminent collapse. If tax revenues decline rapidly, the Govt may force the use of euros to ensure collection (using alternative currencies is pretty much a standard method in avoiding tax in any developed nation).

Returning to the ECB makes for interesting speculation. The troika et al will still control much of what happens. Their desire to clamp down may make the lack of currency unbearable. Should this happen, then Cyprus would be able to break free more easily having had, in effect, its own currency anyway! I imagine a lot of horse trading is still to be done, but firmly believe we have seen the cracks in the Euro widen.
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby Fruitcake on Mon Mar 25, 2013 8:50 am

Press release - Statement by President Barroso on Cyprus

Publication date 25/03/2013 12:54

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen,

After talks at the highest level with the President of Cyprus, the Eurogroup yesterday reached an agreement on a programme for the Republic of Cyprus that, if properly implemented, we believe will restore the viability of the Cypriot economy.

The European Commission has worked intensively to make this deal possible.

We have had the interests of the people of Cyprus in mind throughout this process, since we started talks on a possible programme already in 2011. We had to find a solution together for a business model that was not viable and could not offer lasting prosperity to the people of Cyprus.

The challenges for Cyprus are immense, but Cyprus can count on the European Union to support it. As I have underlined yesterday in the talks that preceded the Eurogroup discussion, we should think not only about financial stability. It is about restarting the real economy. Last night, we agreed on a 10 Billion Euro package worth 55% of the GDP of Cyprus. And we need to look at how we can mobilise all the means at our disposal. That is why I have decided to set up a Task Force for Cyprus to provide technical assistance to the Cypriot authorities.

We want to alleviate the social consequences of the economic shock by mobilising funds from European Union instruments and by supporting the Cypriot authorities' efforts to restore financial, economic and social stability. We will bring in further expertise to facilitate the emergence of new sources of economic activity. The Commission stands by the Cypriot people.

The Task Force will be based in Brussels, with a support team in Nicosia. It will work closely with the Cypriot authorities to support and supplement the EU-IMF programme. Its work will have a strong focus on employment, competitiveness and growth. The Task Force will provide quarterly progress reports to the Cypriot authorities and the Commission. General coordination of the Task Force, which is also coordinating closely with the Task Force for Greece, will be ensured by Commission Vice President Olli Rehn.

As we have shown in the past, Europe faces its challenges together. We do not leave Member States facing a financial crisis alone. With responsibility on the part of Cyprus, we will ensure that solidarity is provided by the euro area.

I call on Cyprus to show unity and responsibility in the implementation of the agreements reached. And I call on all Member States of the European Union to show solidarity with the country that is facing extraordinary challenges and that needs this solidarity in very concrete terms.

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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby Fruitcake on Mon Mar 25, 2013 8:56 am

saxitoxin wrote:LOL, one thing I like about the French is they are frank ...

"To all those who say that we are strangling an entire people ... Cyprus is a casino economy that was on the brink of bankruptcy," [French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici] told Canal Plus television.


So this happened in Iceland, now it's happening in Cyprus ... Fruitcake, will the Canary Islands and Switzerland be next?


I think you should perhaps be including Luxembourg in that small select list. Financial institutions in Luxembourg have assets at around 22X the GDP. Cyprus was about 6X
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Postby 2dimes on Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:02 am

Do you think this will help a push toward electronic currency?

The two main points being, a euro is a euro then and you can't hold it up or look at a serial number to tell a German euro from a Cyprus euro. And then people can't horde them or trade more valuable local paper notes.

I personally am against this but also believe it's inevitable.

I think part of the push for it and a single world currency will be in the form of tax being reduced because evasion will be impossible. In addition to stability of your credits not being attached to a local and volatile economy.
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Re:

Postby AndyDufresne on Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:26 am

2dimes wrote:Do you think this will help a push toward electronic currency?

The two main points being, a euro is a euro then and you can't hold it up or look at a serial number to tell a German euro from a Cyprus euro. And then people can't horde them or trade more valuable local paper notes.

I personally am against this but also believe it's inevitable.

I think part of the push for it and a single world currency will be in the form of tax being reduced because evasion will be impossible. In addition to stability of your credits not being attached to a local and volatile economy.

I'm just waiting until bottlecaps become the bedrock of commerce.

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Re:

Postby Fruitcake on Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:32 am

2dimes wrote:Do you think this will help a push toward electronic currency?

The two main points being, a euro is a euro then and you can't hold it up or look at a serial number to tell a German euro from a Cyprus euro. And then people can't horde them or trade more valuable local paper notes.

I personally am against this but also believe it's inevitable.

I think part of the push for it and a single world currency will be in the form of tax being reduced because evasion will be impossible. In addition to stability of your credits not being attached to a local and volatile economy.


Actually I think it will do quite the opposite. The world isn't ready for a single currency and I doubt will be for some time yet. You mention the stability of credits, which is exactly (and not being facetious here) what the EU said when the Euro was born.

Until the world economy is on a level playing field a single global currency, a la what I think you are talking about, just ain't going to happen.
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby thegreekdog on Mon Mar 25, 2013 10:00 am

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/opini ... aper&_r=1&

Paul Krugman baits Fruitcake and BBS.
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby Fruitcake on Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:00 am

thegreekdog wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/opinion/krugman-hot-money-blues.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=1&

Paul Krugman baits Fruitcake and BBS.


Indeed. Of course this was the guy who said on May 5, 2008 that (and I quote) Cross your fingers, knock on wood: it’s possible, though by no means certain, that the worst of the financial crisis is over.

But I am being somewhat mean and beastly about him, his writings do often contain decent analysis. He did have the common decency to ask How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? in late 2009 which was pretty noble of him as he is an economist (and you know what I think of them when they get involved in finance!)
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby saxitoxin on Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:57 am

Paul Kruggman vs. Chrysostomos II

Chrysostomos II: "The euro cannot last ... with the brains that they have in Brussels, it is certain that it will
not last ..."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/ma ... t-eurozone
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby Pedronicus on Mon Mar 25, 2013 5:37 pm

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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby Fruitcake on Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:35 pm



He's not completely correct. Close but no cigar. if you look at the Greek Government Already Showing Cracks thread. I said back in February:
The dear Germans are livid, furious, puce with rage over this. Cyprus, which is full of dirty laundry, which used to be in London being washed but has moved house, so London gets Euro cleaned sheets
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby BigBallinStalin on Wed Mar 27, 2013 10:45 am

Fruitcake wrote:
thegreekdog wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/opinion/krugman-hot-money-blues.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=1&

Paul Krugman baits Fruitcake and BBS.


Indeed. Of course this was the guy who said on May 5, 2008 that (and I quote) Cross your fingers, knock on wood: it’s possible, though by no means certain, that the worst of the financial crisis is over.

But I am being somewhat mean and beastly about him, his writings do often contain decent analysis. He did have the common decency to ask How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? in late 2009 which was pretty noble of him as he is an economist (and you know what I think of them when they get involved in finance!)


I just ignore him. He's 99% of the time hot air whenever he speaks outside of Keynesian business cycle theory--which is funny. He was fully supportive of either increasing housing purchases or subsidizing mortgage rates in 2002. When 2007/2008 rolled around, he completely ignored how his position supported the bubble then bust. Instead, he dove headlong into his Keynesian economics--looking for the next market to inflate.
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby AndyDufresne on Wed Mar 27, 2013 11:08 am

Phrases like market inflation and Keynesian economics drive me wild with ecstasy.


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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby Symmetry on Wed Mar 27, 2013 11:14 am

AndyDufresne wrote:Phrases like market inflation and Keynesian economics drive me wild with ecstasy.


--Andy


Glad to know I'm not the only one who sees the erotic elements in that post.
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby Fruitcake on Wed Mar 27, 2013 5:26 pm

Euro is showing real weakness in the markets.

This is the latest from Reuters (with a few of my observations in bold italics)

The Central Bank said banks would open their doors at midday (5 a.m. EST) on Thursday after nearly two weeks when Cypriots could get cash only through limited ATM withdrawals, while the government hashed out the rescue to stave off financial ruin.

Among measures imposed to prevent savers from stripping the bank vaults clean when the doors open: withdrawals will be capped at 300 euros ($380) per day, travelers may take no more than 3,000 euros abroad per trip, and funds can be sent abroad only by businesses that can prove they are paying for imports.

The European Central Bank delivered extra banknotes to Cypriot banks on Wednesday evening to meet demand, a source familiar with the situation said. The ECB declined to comment. well they would wouldn't they

At least three container trucks loaded with cash pulled up inside the compound of the central bank in Nicosia in early evening, a Cyprus central bank source said. A helicopter hovered overhead and police with rifles were stationed around the compound.

The controls, announced in a finance ministry decree, would allow unlimited use of credit cards within Cyprus, but set a monthly limit of 5,000 euros for Cypriots using credit cards abroad. Payment by cheques would be banned.

The central bank would review all commercial transactions between 5,000 and 200,000 euros, and scrutinize any larger transactions on a case-by-case basis. Well that's going to be great for the island economy. It doesn't take the brains of a rocket scientist to know that when inspectors move in to a situation such as this, the whole process pretty much freezes up completely.

A central bank official said the measures would initially be imposed for four days, and would be reviewed and relaxed as soon as possible. yeah right....if I could sell 2-3 months on a spread I would...in fact I might even sell 6-9 months

"The rationale is that these measures will be reviewed on a daily basis, so if there is the possibility of relaxing them we will," Yiangos Demetriou, head of internal audit at the Central Bank, said on state television. that's more like it. After saying it would be a matter of days, they then start the softening up process of the people.

Cyprus's financial difficulties have sent tremors through the already fragile single European currency. The imposition of capital controls has led economists to suggest that a second-class "Cyprus euro" could emerge, with currency trapped on the island worth less than money that can be freely used abroad. glad to see you guys are right on the pace

Cyprus has a huge financial sector with 68 billion euros in deposits, operating as an offshore haven for rich Russians and other foreigners. Its bailout is the first time that EU officials have demanded bank depositors take losses as the price of a rescue, causing outrage on the streets and fear that savers will flee with their cash. errr...I think this sentence should start Cyprus used to have a huge financial sector, which mysteriously underwent a huge reduction over the last few months....

Finance Minister Michael Sarris has said capital controls will be "within the realms of reason". But Cypriots, fearing for their savings and angered by the bailout deal struck on Monday in Brussels, are expected to besiege banks. quite right too, these people have been royally screwed.

Under the bailout, Cyprus's second largest bank will be closed and its guaranteed deposits of up to 100,000 euros transferred to the biggest bank. Deposits of more than 100,000 euros at both banks would be frozen.

Big depositors will lose money, but the authorities say deposits up to 100,000 euros will be protected, a reversal from an earlier plan that would have hit small depositors as well.

Cypriots have taken to the streets of Nicosia in their thousands to protest against a bailout deal that will push their country into an economic slump and cost many their jobs. make that 'cost most of them their jobs'

Some 2,500 protesters gathered outside the presidential palace on Wednesday, waving banners and flags. They chanted: "I'll pay nothing; I owe nothing." sorry guys, the EU politburo doesn't listen to the ordinary person, they are too busy building their own nests at your expense

European leaders said the bailout deal averted a chaotic national bankruptcy that might have forced Cyprus out of the euro. and this would have been worse in what way????

Critics said the capital controls, which contradict the EU principle of free flow of money and goods, might be hard to give up. you betcha....

"This is a typical set of exchange control measures, more reminiscent of Latin America or Africa," said Bob Lyddon, General Secretary of the international banking association IBOS.

He doubted that they would be in force for only a matter of days. "These are permanent controls until the economy recovers," he said.

A Reuters poll of economists this week showed 30 out of 46 believed the controls would last months, while 13 expected they would endure a matter of weeks. Three said they could last years.

POPULAR ANGER

The terms of the 10-billion euro ($13-billion) rescue from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank have stirred popular anger within Cyprus at the country's partners in the EU, notably Germany, the bloc's main paymaster and fiercest advocate of austerity. so no change there then. For the record, I don't think the Germans are the main offenders here.

The measures have caused alarm among ordinary Cypriots, who worry that they will not be able to pay their bills or draw wages normally paid by cheque.

A 42-year-old Romanian hotel maid, who gave her name as Maria, said she was worried she would not be able to cash her pay cheque due on Friday.

"What shall I do?" she asked. "Hold up the cheque and look at it?" yes my dear, take a good look at it, then soak gently in water and wipe your rear with it.

Interestingly, word crosses my desk that the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man are filled to the brim with Euros. This has been a steady incoming flow over the last couple of months. I cannot imagine how or why this might be, can you? Answers kept to yourselves please.

I do truly fear for Cyprus now. Their banking industry (if one can refer to it as such) is annihilated, their tourism will do a fair impression of collapsing dominoes. I very much doubt many Germans will be wending their way down there this year, do you? After all, the German tourist spend was pretty large in the tourism sector. Apart from which, with prices now likely to rocket on the island, Turkey will be considerably cheaper as a destination for those sun loving Germans and North Europeans. I would be interested to see what those here who think about such things forecast the contraction of the Cypriot economy will be over the next 3 years. My best guess is 20%
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby rishaed on Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:46 pm

Thanks for the updates Fruitcake. If i had the money, I would be doing 3-4 Iron Condors on the Euro right about now. That or just buying some puts....
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby Fruitcake on Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:49 am

rishaed wrote:Thanks for the updates Fruitcake. If i had the money, I would be doing 3-4 Iron Condors on the Euro right about now. That or just buying some puts....


Problem is, I think the Euro is entering a volatile stage so yes buying some puts would be the best bet if you are able to withstand the roller coaster.

This was my post last week:

Fruitcake wrote:
EUR/GBP
Close Friday 0.8653
Open Monday 0.8547
Close Monday 0.8587
5.45pm (UK) Tuesday 0.8518

Euro value peak was 25th Feb this year at 0.8789

EUR/USD

Close Friday 1.3079
Open Monday 1.2927
Close Monday 1.2941
5.45pm (UK) Tuesday 1.2859


Euro presently trading at 1.2756 USD and 0.8434 GBP
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby patches70 on Thu Mar 28, 2013 1:02 pm

As some may or may not know, the Russian's got their money out of Cyprus before the deposit levy had a chance to get their money. Even though the accounts were supposedly frozen. This was reported on last Monday-
http://www.spiegel.de/international/eur ... 91168.html
and the Cyprus government has since begun the investigations on who and how this money was able to leave the country before they could steal levy it. Which is hilarious. Depending on how much money got out, it seems all this bail in business will end up for nothing.
Apparently the Cyprus banks allowed transactions for humanitarian reasons and "special payments". Through those two loopholes the Russian oligarchy was able to remove much of their money. Heh heh, and maybe the Russians didn't even have to threaten anyone with plutonium pellets inserted just under the skin of certain politicians and bankers to get their money out.

Anyway, Clarke and Dawe, interviewing an adviser to the ECB, a Mr Luka Busy, explains everything in perfect detail.....
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby rishaed on Thu Mar 28, 2013 3:10 pm

you can practically hear it leaving. . .
What's it sound like?
Swiss
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Swissz
I'm sorry I didn't catch that?
Switzerland.
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby patches70 on Thu Mar 28, 2013 3:41 pm

rishaed wrote:you can practically hear it leaving. . .
What's it sound like?
Swiss
What was that?
Swissz
I'm sorry I didn't catch that?
Switzerland.


Haha, yeah, that was a good one among quite a few good ones. Like about the Russians- "They can barely contain their delight".
Also about the bad bank and what's been done to it- "That's buried at sea in a lead lined container". Hahahaha!

Clarke and Dawe are great.
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby AslanTheKing on Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:48 pm

if the cyprese would have never found the gigantic gasreserves off their coast, this would have not happened,

russia had their hands deep in cyprus ( militarybase etc...)

not only europe and israel want their share of gas
tuerkey is waiting in line too as the russians
so let them get bankrupt and then get their gas
( thats the european future goal)
they couldnt get norway, so lets get cyprus, get it?
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby patches70 on Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:15 pm

AslanTheKing wrote:if the cyprese would have never found the gigantic gasreserves off their coast, this would have not happened,

russia had their hands deep in cyprus ( militarybase etc...)

not only europe and israel want their share of gas
tuerkey is waiting in line too as the russians
so let them get bankrupt and then get their gas
( thats the european future goal)
they couldnt get norway, so lets get cyprus, get it?


Let's say this is accurate and not just a conspiracy theory. Not just that the inherent flaws in the euro and the ECB are to blame.

That would imply that the governments in Europe are either collaborating, conspiring or held hostage by a criminal technocratic gang of Central planners. That the thought or appearance of sovereignty and liberty are just that, mere thoughts or appearances that are not close to reality at all.

The criminal cabal would be a small group, labeled by some as Illuminati or other such term for such secret and criminal organizations and that this organization holds all the money power over everyone else, including governments. Under the guise of Central Banking.
It would imply that what is happening in Cyprus isn't a natural consequence of malinvestment but was instead engineered to happen as it has.
What of the rest of the EU?
How far and how deep does such an organization reach?
And who stands opposed to it?
Who could stand against it?


Such a group to be able to operate would require a complacent and ignorant populace. Would it not?
Not to mention that if what you say is true, then what good is the EU governments at all?

I'm not buying into your theory exactly, I'm just musing is all. I don't know if Cyprus was targeted because of their gas reserves (which will take decades to exploit), or if it's just a coincidence. Gas reserves or not, would not the fundamental instability of the entire EMU and malinvestment in the PIGS would have led to this happening anyway with no other ulterior motives than simple cause and effect?
It is well known how I personally feel about Central Bankers, Central Planners and Statists. And I suppose it's possible that this is all just a big con and Cyprus has been targeted because of it's potential energy wealth and that it's not able to defend itself at all.
It's a pretty well established fact of history that nations that cannot defend themselves, or depend exclusively on others to defend them, end up getting shafted in time.

I see a rising totalitarian tide in Europe and elsewhere, and who is responsible for it? <Shrugs> looking in the mirror is just as valid an answer as some criminal cabal running rampant over peoples and nations.
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby AslanTheKing on Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:44 pm

so much to read and answer, it took me 3 beers to finish reading,

all the russian money is in turkey now, its save there,

switzerland is not that save anymore
and the powers? what do you want to hear?
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby patches70 on Thu Mar 28, 2013 8:00 pm

AslanTheKing wrote:so much to read and answer, it took me 3 beers to finish reading,

all the russian money is in turkey now, its save there,

switzerland is not that save anymore
and the powers? what do you want to hear?


Sober up brother. Then at your leisure, if what you said is true (that Cyprus was targeted for it's energy reserves rather than a simple natural effect of poor investment) then what are the deeper implications?

Don't tell me what you think I want to hear, tell me what you think. That's all.

I do agree though, that Switzerland isn't all that safe anymore. At least from the American perspective. Recent US laws have put Switzerland in a tough spot and they are capitulating to Washington. All banking information of US citizens with accounts in Switzerland is to be turned over to the US government. I'm not sure how it is with the European perspective.
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Re: gov't to withdraw 10% from everyone's bank accounts

Postby GreecePwns on Sun Mar 31, 2013 10:20 pm

Possible huge scandal in Cyprus involving the President! Here's the first English link I could find:

http://rt.com/news/cyprus-president-money-withdraw-129/

A company owned by in-laws of Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades wired €21 million from Laiki Bank to London days before the Eurogroup’s crisis-triggering levy proposal, claims a Cypriot newspaper. The president demands an investigation.

During two days, 12 and 13 of March, the company A.Loutsios & Sons Ltd., co-owned by Loutsios John, the husband of Nikos Anastasiadis’ daughter, Elsa, took five promissory notes worth €21 million from Laiki Bank. The money was then transferred to London, reported Cypriot newspaper Haravgi, affiliated to the communist-rooted AKEL party.

The withdrawal was fulfilled just three days before the Eurogroup meeting when euro finance ministers agreed a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout for Cyprus...The newspaper recalls that Cyprus Finance Minister, Michalis Sarris, publically admitted that the government was aware in advance about the Eurogroup’s intentions to impose a “haircut” on bank deposits of more than 100,000 euros.


The bolded part (emphasis mine) means we should all take this with a grain of salt.
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