CHINA IS A DEMOCRACY!!!

[shickingbrits]

Yeah, everyone thinks their getting to lunge whatever they do.

[mrswdk]

I presume that last comment made some sort of sense in your head.

[shickingbrits]

Should I edit it or

The world suspects China's every move.

[mrswdk]

Oh, I see.

Yeah, China and the US each seem to regard the other with a kind of itchy paranoia. The Benetton 'world leaders kissing' ads obviously didn't work.

[Gillipig]

Great, so we both agree that China should continue steadily onwards in its economic and foreign policies, that a shift in government could pave the way towards some disastrous outcomes (Taiwan's elections are often decided on the parties policies towards China, in reverse it may not be so pretty), that the populace are generally content with this and in many ways it opens the doors for corruption, but frees the hands of the government to act efficiently and for others to take the words of the Chinese government to the bank on long-term policies.

I'm not so certain.

Feel free to elaborate more on that. What is going to stop China's economic growth in the near future?

That's something different. China will most likely continue growing. It takes a lot more than something as severe as the Great Depression (for the US) to stop long-run growth. You'd need something like prolonged civil war in an arbitrarily drawn political boundary which none of groups in conflict can dominant (e.g. Dem Rep of Congo), but I think the DRC still grows. Main point here is that growth tends to never stop.

So with that in mind, "near future"... well, its shadow banking problem could blow up in China's face. As China keeps developing its deep water (or blue water) navy, it'll be more likely to beat up some country without nuclear weapons (since the cost will be lower). That could have ugly ramifications. Maybe there'll be a recession and the Big Dogs in the PRC step on the nationalist gas to distract the people with a war.

I'm not sure. I'm not as certain as shickingbrits for reasons already mentioned. He seems to possess a crystal ball which simply spits back what he wants to see.

A country like China with a long history of "Divine Emperors" and other totalitarian governments is not likely to experience significant internal strife just because it's not a proper democracy. Public approval is much more tied to the competence of the government, as long as the government is competent, the chinese people will not oppose it. That is an incredible strength when your country is doing well financially.
To me it's nonsensical to predict that China's economy will falter because of internal opposition, as China with it's history is only likely to experience internal opposition after it has shown it's not competent, which in our day and age almost exclusively translates to economic recession. So a economic recession caused by a civil war is something I find highly unlikely in China's case, a civil war erupting because of economic recession is a possibility but it won't precede the economic recession but rather follow it. Your other scenarios were a banking crisis and various outwards expansion caused problems. Well a banking crisis is always a possibility, it seems no country has really figured out a way to control their banks properly, so I won't write that off. The other scenarios dealing with war caused instability however I think we can more or less write off. You did not specifically say it but I assume when you said "ugly ramifications" you're primarily thinking about international sanctions strong enough to seriously hurt the Chinese economy, and not "military intervention" (haha, just the thought of that amuses me), well keep in mind how unable the European Union has been to apply proper sanctions even to Russian expansion, which is happening in their own backyard, how do you think the west is going to react to Chinese expansion thousands of miles away from them? My guess is not with harsh sanctions especially given how much we are all depending on their goods for our own economies. I think it's a fair to assume there are not going to be strong western sanctions on China if they swallow Burma for example, India will be pissed though.

[muy_thaiguy]

Great, so we both agree that China should continue steadily onwards in its economic and foreign policies, that a shift in government could pave the way towards some disastrous outcomes (Taiwan's elections are often decided on the parties policies towards China, in reverse it may not be so pretty), that the populace are generally content with this and in many ways it opens the doors for corruption, but frees the hands of the government to act efficiently and for others to take the words of the Chinese government to the bank on long-term policies.

I'm not so certain.

Feel free to elaborate more on that. What is going to stop China's economic growth in the near future?

That's something different. China will most likely continue growing. It takes a lot more than something as severe as the Great Depression (for the US) to stop long-run growth. You'd need something like prolonged civil war in an arbitrarily drawn political boundary which none of groups in conflict can dominant (e.g. Dem Rep of Congo), but I think the DRC still grows. Main point here is that growth tends to never stop.

So with that in mind, "near future"... well, its shadow banking problem could blow up in China's face. As China keeps developing its deep water (or blue water) navy, it'll be more likely to beat up some country without nuclear weapons (since the cost will be lower). That could have ugly ramifications. Maybe there'll be a recession and the Big Dogs in the PRC step on the nationalist gas to distract the people with a war.

I'm not sure. I'm not as certain as shickingbrits for reasons already mentioned. He seems to possess a crystal ball which simply spits back what he wants to see.

A country like China with a long history of "Divine Emperors" and other totalitarian governments is not likely to experience significant internal strife just because it's not a proper democracy. Public approval is much more tied to the competence of the government, as long as the government is competent, the chinese people will not oppose it. That is an incredible strength when your country is doing well financially.
To me it's nonsensical to predict that China's economy will falter because of internal opposition, as China with it's history is only likely to experience internal opposition after it has shown it's not competent, which in our day and age almost exclusively translates to economic recession. So a economic recession caused by a civil war is something I find highly unlikely in China's case, a civil war erupting because of economic recession is a possibility but it won't precede the economic recession but rather follow it. Your other scenarios were a banking crisis and various outwards expansion caused problems. Well a banking crisis is always a possibility, it seems no country has really figured out a way to control their banks properly, so I won't write that off. The other scenarios dealing with war caused instability however I think we can more or less write off. You did not specifically say it but I assume when you said "ugly ramifications" you're primarily thinking about international sanctions strong enough to seriously hurt the Chinese economy, and not "military intervention" (haha, just the thought of that amuses me), well keep in mind how unable the European Union has been to apply proper sanctions even to Russian expansion, which is happening in their own backyard, how do you think the west is going to react to Chinese expansion thousands of miles away from them? My guess is not with harsh sanctions especially given how much we are all depending on their goods for our own economies. I think it's a fair to assume there are not going to be strong western sanctions on China if they swallow Burma for example, India will be pissed though.

Dynasty Warriors.

Yeah, it's a long running series of repetitive hack and slash, but it is based off of actual events in China where a prolonged Civil War lasted at least 2 generations with 3 main factions constantly at war with each other, and each of the 3 showed competence to some degree (though Shu was broke and very poor near the end of it due to wasting resources (much like China does now), but was still popular because of "for the people" motto).

[shickingbrits]

A lot of Chinese jokes don't make much sense in translation. Here's one that does.

Xi Jinping visits the province of Fujian and talks with the governor.

"Governor, the Chinese people are willing to do anything for the Chinese government."

The governor gives a non-committal smile.

"No, it's true, governor. Let me show you."

Xi goes to a local farmer and asks: " If you had two houses, would you give one to the the government?"

Without hesitation the farmer replies, "Of course."

"See, governor?" Xi asks.

The governor is not convinced.

Xi says, " Farmer, if you have two cars, will you give one to the government?"

"Absolutely," the farmer confirms.

The governor ask Xi if he can ask the farmer a question, and Xi agrees.

"Farmer, if you have two cows, will you give one to the government?' the governor asks.

"No, no way, never."

Xi is surprised, "Why will you give us your second house and car, but not your cow?'

The farmer: "I really have two cows."

Chinese people are incredible untrusting of their government. They save and educate themselves against the potential ruin that the government may cause. They watch and tweet the governments every move. The government is in a constant battle to reaffirm their trustworthiness and each policy is put through the wringer.

In the West, having voted in the representative, we assume responsibility for their mistakes, and place enough trust in them to call their mistakes incompetence. China has no such trust. China makes no such allowances. Chinese people don't assume paying their government is somehow related to their personal good.

This is why corruption is so hard to break. A wealthy Chinese man would not trust his health to the government but would rather pay the doctor directly. A poor businessman has no qualms with operating without a license. He realizes that if he does poorly in his field, he won't attract enough attention to merit one, and if he does well, he can acquire one later. Chinese people are generally ok with this attitude, because it comes with a qualifier: if anyone abuses the laissez-faire attitude to cause public harm or if anyone's actions legitimize the public's distrust, they are executed.

[mrswdk]

Do you actually think all that, or are you just looking to get a reaction?

[shickingbrits]

I actually think all that.

[mrswdk]

Another joke:

An American politician is visiting China, and is being shown around one of Shanghai's new skyscrapers by the governor of Shanghai. At some point, the two start comparing who has the most loyal/devoted bodyguard. They decide to put their bodyguards' devotion to the test, and the American leader orders his bodyguard to jump from the 10th floor. Upon hearing this, the bodyguard kneels down and says: “Please don’t, I have a family.” The American politician's heart softens, and he tells his bodyguard not to jump. The Chinese leader then orders his bodyguard to jump and, without a word, the bodyguard walks to the window and prepares to jump. In horror, the American leader immediately grabs him. "You can't be serious!?" he exclaims. The Chinese bodyguard turns, takes the politician's hand off his arm and says to him: “Please don’t, I have a family.”

[shickingbrits]

Another joke:

A Chinese man goes out for a late night meal. Local law enforcement demand his ID, but the man refuses, saying he knows his rights. He is beaten to death by the five officers.

An American is standing on the street corner. Local law enforcement demand he come with them. He says he knows his rights, and they strangle him to death.

In both places, there is an outcry. In China, the five officers are executed. In the US, the witnesses are arrested. The joke is democracy.