austraila vs s.america

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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby detlef on Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:29 pm

MeDeFe wrote:So when is it profitable to go for an other continent then, oh great master of strategy? Should everyone hang back while the two who got Australia and SA battle it out?
You have done nothing to clarify, so far you have claimed that getting Aussie is almost tantamount to 100% chance of winning the game. "Get it and be done", seems to be what you're telling us inferior cretins. Please, I beg you, give us unworthy ones some details, how would you deal with the oh so hypothetical situation that never occurs of 3 or 4 other players holding continents on the classic map? Because surely they would never decide not to fight each other to the death if someone else is already holding a continent.

Listen, all I'm saying, is that statistics (taken from your games, mind you) support that, despite what people might want to believe, the player who ultimately wins the game takes Aussie as his first continent more often than any other continent. I understand it's way more cool to be the guy who goes against the grain, but the numbers quite simply say that, far more often than any other continent...(sorry, I'm not going to say it again).

Now, please understand that this doesn't mean the first player to take Aussie is the guy who always wins, rather that players rarely win by taking a bonus besides Aussie and going from there.

So, I understand that you were trying to make a joke by urging me to bestow my wisdom upon you, but unfortunately, it seems that you really need it. So, somebody else gets Aussie and South America and you don't have a great drop in one of the others. What are your choices? You can battle everyone out of Africa, Europe, or NA. This should cost many armies and many turns unless you're super lucky. Meanwhile, the dude in SA is just stacking up guys and ready to smack you down the first turn you actually take it since you're not likely to have a ton of guys left over to defend it. So, considering that the guys who are holding SA or Aussie realize that playing nice with you is ultimately going to be a bad deal for them. Thus far, they've enjoyed the early arms lead due to the fact that they're the only one earning a bonus. However, if everyone just plays nice, the guy who just took the bigger spots is going to end up better off. So, right now, while you have few guys defending, they're going to hit you. So now you're still not earning a bonus and have lost still more men. And so on.

So, who do I want to be if I'm not the guy who's holding Aussie? I wan to be the guy hanging out in Ural or Afgan watching all this go down. Every turn, I'm only earning 3 guys, but nobody's hitting me because I have a big stack that's not protecting anything. Why is somebody going to come over and waste a bunch of armies whittling down a stack? I mean, you seem to rely on nobody bothering to hit a marginally defended bonus area, right? So, as often as it doesn't, I'll be among the leaders in total armies 10-15 turns into the game. Now, if everyone does play nice and builds up, this is going to backfire, and it certainly has. Fortunately, however because the guys who get the early jump realize that the waiting game is going to cost them that isn't typically the case. Thus, at least as often as you're going to win from one of the big spots, there's going to be some big battle somewhere and you're going to be able to pick up the crumbs. Perhaps the guy who first took Aussie is going to stretch himself too thin and you'll be able to poach it. Of course, if you end up winning, then you'll qualify for the stat of guys who ended up winning took Aussie as their first bonus.

None the less, it doesn't really matter what you or I think is the best place to start, because the numbers don't lie. That's really it. I'm sorry there's not more, but when you have evidence on your side, you don't have to embellish or grandstand.
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby suggs on Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:47 pm

*tentatively enters a serious risk based discussion,*

I reckon the geezer who isnt medefe is right.
Just call me Claus. ;)
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby MeDeFe on Mon Jun 30, 2008 8:00 pm

Fine, the numbers, I searched for standard, flat rate/no cards, classic, no fog, looked at 100 games with 3 or more players and found...

Aussie 33
SA 32
Africa 17
NA 12
Europe 9
Asia 2

If you count you will see that there are 105 starting continent bonuses listed and not 100, that's because in 5 games the eventual winner held 2 continents the first time they got a bonus, in those cases I listed both.


The bias in favour of Australia isn't very large, overall small continents clearly do appear to be the safer bet as far as staging points go than large ones, I'll grant you that, but honestly, is 1 win more conclusive of Australia's overall superiority? It's hardly a "landslide" as you claimed in your first post. While you can use this to support a more general thesis regarding small, easy-to-get continents, it's not enough to claim that Australia is the be-all and end-all of online boardgames.


And since you started talking of likely scenarios, what is the chance that you have a so shitty drop that it's not viable to go for any continent at all? If it's not worth it for you to go for one of the bigger continents, 3 other people are probably already trying to get one of them. As for the player in SA sitting there waiting to hammer you as soon as you get your bonus, well, which one of you? The one in NA or the one in Africa? He'll hardly have enough for both.

Another thing, if you read my first post in this thread, I mean thoroughly, you will notice that I didn't say anything about which continent I think is best, nor did I say that in any of my other posts. What I did was relativise the unmitigated praise of Australia. So where exactly did that closing statement of yours come from?



ps.
And since you're taking your statistics from my games, here are the continents I've won from on classic, most to least frequent, just in case you really want to discuss my games and my playing style. 51 no cards/flat rate games on that map, 26 wins total, 8 of them from Europe, that's practically as frequently as Aussie in the sample above, want to draw any conclusions?

Europe 8
Aussie 6
Africa 5
SA 5
NA 2
Asia 0


Oh, hi Claus.
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby Robinette on Mon Jun 30, 2008 8:23 pm

detlef wrote:
Robinette wrote:
detlef wrote:
Robinette wrote:Forget about what 'FEELS' Right... here's a FACT,,,

in EVERY singles game (100% of the time, except assasin) the winner held NORTH AMERICA!

So NORTH AMERICA is where it's at!!!!





Well actually, by the final round they held ALL the continents... but for now lets just ignore that little detail...

:lol: Well, I understand where you're going with this but it's still not true. 1v1 games often end with out the winner holding all the continents because of neutrals. 8-)


*sigh* ... you really took the wind out of this sail...

and i wouldn't know anything about those neutrals .... never played 1v1 ...
Sorry, but there's neutrals on classic in all game settings but 3 and 6. Actually, I'm not sure about 3 even. They technically don't need them because 3 goes into 42 evenly, but they still might deploy them for some other reason.

Damn, it's getting pretty still out here. Better fire up that motor :lol:

Too late... She's run aground
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby detlef on Tue Jul 01, 2008 8:49 am

MeDeFe wrote:Fine, the numbers, I searched for standard, flat rate/no cards, classic, no fog, looked at 100 games with 3 or more players and found...

Aussie 33
SA 32
Africa 17
NA 12
Europe 9
Asia 2

If you count you will see that there are 105 starting continent bonuses listed and not 100, that's because in 5 games the eventual winner held 2 continents the first time they got a bonus, in those cases I listed both.


The bias in favour of Australia isn't very large, overall small continents clearly do appear to be the safer bet as far as staging points go than large ones, I'll grant you that, but honestly, is 1 win more conclusive of Australia's overall superiority? It's hardly a "landslide" as you claimed in your first post. While you can use this to support a more general thesis regarding small, easy-to-get continents, it's not enough to claim that Australia is the be-all and end-all of online boardgames.


And since you started talking of likely scenarios, what is the chance that you have a so shitty drop that it's not viable to go for any continent at all? If it's not worth it for you to go for one of the bigger continents, 3 other people are probably already trying to get one of them. As for the player in SA sitting there waiting to hammer you as soon as you get your bonus, well, which one of you? The one in NA or the one in Africa? He'll hardly have enough for both.

Another thing, if you read my first post in this thread, I mean thoroughly, you will notice that I didn't say anything about which continent I think is best, nor did I say that in any of my other posts. What I did was relativise the unmitigated praise of Australia. So where exactly did that closing statement of yours come from?



ps.
And since you're taking your statistics from my games, here are the continents I've won from on classic, most to least frequent, just in case you really want to discuss my games and my playing style. 51 no cards/flat rate games on that map, 26 wins total, 8 of them from Europe, that's practically as frequently as Aussie in the sample above, want to draw any conclusions?

Europe 8
Aussie 6
Africa 5
SA 5
NA 2
Asia 0


Oh, hi Claus.

Nice work.

A few things. I would imagine that your data on those 100 games was actually skewed slightly towards larger continents by virtue of the inclusion of 3 player games. There's a much better chance of getting the kind of drop one would need to take a big spot in those games and there have been a number of threads that specifically ask what the best continent to go for in 3 and 4 player games which realize the fact that they're a more realistic option in those games.

As for your games, when I looked at your games before, I worked back from the most recent and stopped before I got to the end, so I didn't see all 54 singles/flat or no cards games. I stopped about half way it seems and ended up with this:
Oceania 13
Africa 4
SA 4
Europe 3
NA 1
I also looked at all the winners, not just you. So, what can be gathered from the fact that looking at the 26 most recent games you'd played (as of then) and all of them?

Well, for starters, It seems that Europe was a better play early on in the history of CC than it is now. Now, I understand that nearly everyone who's playing here played risk prior to joining so it's not like nobody knew what was going on at all. But let's not fool ourselves. How many of us routinely had 10 or more games going on at one time before we joined? How many of us played literally 100s of times per year before we joined. Thus, it's not a stretch to conclude the it is getting harder and harder to win (assuming, of course, that you're not feasting on noobs). I mean, when I first joined, we were all playing classic/six player/escalating just like the US board game rules. The winner nearly always got there by taking bonus areas, just like we did as kids on the board. So, it seems safe to say that the circle of players you joined with evolved similarly and made trying to grab a large bonus area like Europe a less and less attractive idea.

As for the Aussie v SA argument. Your analysis sure sheds a new light on things.
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby MeDeFe on Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:52 pm

The reason I only looked at games I won is that if we are going to start debating viable strategies (practically impossible to debate except in the broadest of terms anyway, there are too many details involved in actual gameplay) and starting positions I can only argue from my own perspective. You've mentioned the debate we had at a while back whether Europe is a viable starting position at all, I think it's safe to say that in my personal experience it is. The numbers from my games back me up on that point. Even if Europe does not appear to be a good bet if you take a larger sample of games with other players who prefer different strategies.


And I wouldn't be too sure about 3 player games skewing the results towards larger continents, if there are only a few players in the game your chance of being dropped 3 out of 4 territories on a small continent is also substantially larger. The strategy you outlined earlier relied rather heavily on speed for the person who got the small continent if I remember correctly, and getting the bonus by round 2 definitely qualifies for being included under the label "speed".
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby jpliberty on Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:31 pm

Robinette wrote:Forget about what 'FEELS' Right... here's a FACT,,,

in EVERY singles game (100% of the time, except assasin) the winner held NORTH AMERICA!

So NORTH AMERICA is where it's at!!!!





Well actually, by the final round they held ALL the continents... but for now lets just ignore that little detail...

Damn, where are you when I need a win?

Oceania is THE continent on the Classic map. N America, Europe and Asia virtually NEVER figure in the game, unless it is a multiple player game and ONLY if at least one of two things occurs:
1) someone gets all of N America, Europe or Asia on the drop and goes first;
2) at least one player is an idiot and so screws up the game that no one can stop someone from holding N America, Europe or Asia

Simply put, you are WAAAAY off base with your N America strategy and I so very much wish to get your points...any time you want to try your N America strategy against me, Pleeeeze do

LOL
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby whitestazn88 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:58 pm

south america for sure has a better choice of where to go in terms of expansion..

i like australia for the fact that theres only one territ to hold as a block, but taking and holding asia after that is tough, whereas if you go for north america after south america, you only add 1 territ to defend really
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby mpjh on Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:23 pm

Don't have any research but the armies holding aus often seem to do well if not win. Aus loses when the armies on sa can hold it for a couple of turns. I have never seen anyony hold na for any period of time.
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby Pippin on Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:27 pm

Neither... I chose... Rapture.

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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby whitestazn88 on Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:53 pm

mpjh wrote:Don't have any research but the armies holding aus often seem to do well if not win. Aus loses when the armies on sa can hold it for a couple of turns. I have never seen anyony hold na for any period of time.


never seen anyone hold na for any period of time? its the easiest +5 to hold for sure... and if you already have sa, then its only got 3 defense points for +7...
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby MeDeFe on Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:20 pm

What's going on? I thought detlef and I had killed this thread.
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby whitestazn88 on Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:21 pm

some guy pulled a 2 week bump on it, so i decided i'd add to the conversation
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby Phoenix7 on Sun Jul 25, 2010 8:21 am

I would rather do wheelies on my dirt bike or read a book.

Yet a 4 person game always go for NA. Otherwise Oz, I hate that map and do not play it unless there are 7 fools...lol. kisses
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby WorldCup4James on Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:26 am

I think that both Australia and South America are good under certain circumstances. If you go for Australia on the Classic map you need to make sure you can control Asia by securing Dubai, Moscow, and Magadan, which can be difficult and easy, depending on whether Europe is colonized and how aggressive the player in North America or Africa is. Australia alone, in my opinion, is not enough to win. If you try securing Australia and another continent not adjacent it could work but often times deploying troops at two different locations of defense can be tough.
South America can be difficult if you´ve got someone bothering you up in North America. You´ve got to make a pact with the guy in Africa, or QUICKLY QUICKLY capture North America and hope you´re not bombarded in Sao Paulo. I wouldn´t go for Africa: you gain another 2 border points, while going for NA only requires you to defend one more border, plus a larger bonus.
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby ChopSquad on Mon Aug 23, 2010 12:20 pm

On classic map I feel like Australia is always the best continent to start with in the *ideal situation. (*ideal = no one quick rushes another continent in the first few turns and you are playing with experienced opponents)

Why:
i.) Ease of defending Australia.
To hold Australia all you have to hold is a single border country that can only be attacked from one adjacent country, making it especially attractive in chained reinforcement type games. This also means that no more than a single opponent can attack you unlike in South America where you can end up getting sandwiched between two opponents trying to expand.

ii.) Difficulty of conquering Asia.
I have never heard of a viable Asia first strategy. That means that most likely Asia will be a mass of countries that no one particularly wants to hold, making it a great "spoil farm" as long as you advance into it leisurely. On the other hand competition for North America and Africa will likely be fierce and so they will be difficult to expand into. Also, since Asia is so difficult to hold it is extremely difficult for anyone to dedicate troops to Bangkok to keep you trapped inside Australia while at the same time expanding and defending their own borders.

iii.) Having to over commit yourself in South America.
If you do manage to hold South America you will put yourself in a precarious position since you will hold the balance of power between North America and Africa. As soon as an opponent makes a serious attempt for either continent you will need to force them out in order to keep yourself safe. This will put a massive target on your back whereas in Australia you can just sit back and let your opponents weaken each other.

iv.) You can easily stir up trouble with other alliances.
If your opponents start talking about teaming up in order to take you out join the conversation and try to convince one of them that they are getting a bad deal. This should be easy enough to manage since only one opponent can attack you at a time, leaving the other members of the alliance to fortify their positions at the expense of one member. Sow dissent amongst them and then try to ally with the one who would be getting the short end of the stick. On the other hand if your opponent have weakened themselves enough in their infighting just crush them all one at a time for the spoils.
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby QoH on Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:05 pm

I've played a lot of Risk in my (albeit short) lifetime, and I like SA over Australia. I know a lot of debating can be done with all the pros and cons of both countries, but there are a few reason why I like SA more.

-You have 2 expansion options.
-Because NA and Africa have a lot of territories, it's more unlikely to have a war on 2 fronts.
-You can get a quick 2 extra units to deploy, because a lot of players I play with always fight over Australia.
-If you get stalemated in on expansion rote, odds are there will be a smaller defense to overcome in the other, leading to quick gains.

DOn't know what all you guys think about those reasons, but I found that ANY continent is good to start out on, although I will tend to favor the smaller ones first.
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby Army of GOD on Sun Aug 29, 2010 3:48 pm

Who said North America wasn't a good choice? =D

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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby Robinette on Sun Aug 29, 2010 3:57 pm

jpliberty wrote:
Robinette wrote:Forget about what 'FEELS' Right... here's a FACT,,,

in EVERY singles game (100% of the time, except assasin) the winner held NORTH AMERICA!

So NORTH AMERICA is where it's at!!!!





Well actually, by the final round they held ALL the continents... but for now lets just ignore that little detail...

Damn, where are you when I need a win?

Oceania is THE continent on the Classic map. N America, Europe and Asia virtually NEVER figure in the game, unless it is a multiple player game and ONLY if at least one of two things occurs:
1) someone gets all of N America, Europe or Asia on the drop and goes first;
2) at least one player is an idiot and so screws up the game that no one can stop someone from holding N America, Europe or Asia

Simply put, you are WAAAAY off base with your N America strategy and I so very much wish to get your points...any time you want to try your N America strategy against me, Pleeeeze do

LOL


wait wait wait... I just completed even more research,
and i can tell you for a FACT
that in over 90% of singles games (except assasin) the winner held ASIA!

So ASIA is where it's at!!!!


This is an Indisputable FACT!

;o)
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby tkr4lf on Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:57 am

While I can't really comment on this website's gameplay as I am new here, I have been playing Risk for a while so I can safely comment on that. If at all possible, I like to take Australia first. Reasons have already been given by previous posts, and most of those reasons are the same as mine. However, I can also say, that when playing the chose your own territories way as opposed to the random deal way, I do my best to get both of them. It gives me a nice steady base in Australia which is simple to hold, and a good place to expand from in South America. It will give me +4 armies each turn, and allow me to eventually take North America for a bonus of +9 each turn and only 4 territories to defend. In any of the games where I manage to do this, I always win. Once you are receiving +9 on every turn, and control nearly half of the map, the game gets easy. Just my two cents.

Edit: Wow I just realized that it says I joined this site back in '08 and thought I should clarify that as I mentioned that I am new here. I now remember joining back then but never playing because I didn't like the whole "wait a day to play" concept. I guess I'm okay with it now. Anyway, I should be around more now. :D
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby Army of GOD on Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:33 am

tkr4lf wrote:While I can't really comment on this website's gameplay as I am new here


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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby Arama86n on Tue Sep 21, 2010 5:53 am

Long story short, Oceania/Australia. Pointless discussion :)
Naturally much depends on the situation, and naturally one can work with SA and is happy to hold it while opponents stand out in the cold. But... spin it whatever way you want, most (experienced) people would rather have the land down under any day of the week. my 5c :geek:
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby kengyin on Wed Sep 29, 2010 3:17 am

in my game one guy went for australia and one went to south america, they were so busy doing that that they didnt notice i took asia in one turn! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: austraila vs s.america

Postby rotean on Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:09 pm

I agree with MeDeFe's idea that you should grab whatever continent is easiest. You must be flexible, and sometimes doing the unexpected can bring victory. The problem with Australia is you risk getting bottled up there, and its difficult to get your troops over to foil other enemies attempts to hold other distant continents. Some players seemed to be obsessed with taking Australia first. Maybe its the koalas...
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