bias in mafia

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bias in mafia

Postby strike wolf on Mon Nov 14, 2011 6:20 pm

1. The right-wrong bias: the thought process that sometimes forms when one person campaigns heavily for one case on a person and the accused dies as town then the person who campaigned for his lynch is more likely scum. Or if the accuser dies then the accused is that much more likely to be scum.

2. The accusation bias: the idea that the person voting/accusing you is scum.

Someone else please add on/elaborate. I did this very quickly so I know I missed a lot.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby safariguy5 on Mon Nov 14, 2011 6:25 pm

3. Noob Bias: Whenever a newer player joins a game, usually gets picked on for very obvious scumtells even if they don't know what they're doing is scummy.

4. Mod Bias: If a mod is perceived as being particularly fond crazy/unbalanced setups, players tend to be more receptive to convoluted theories over the most simple ones. Can work in reverse if mod is perceived as being balanced in setup.

5. Activity Bias: Any player who posts regularly will generally be looked upon as more townish than the player who posts less frequently.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby nagerous on Mon Nov 14, 2011 6:32 pm

6. The attack the noob from an experienced player bias - whenever a player of experience seems to be picking on a new player he is instantly accused of being scum for going for a 'easy lynch' (happens to me a lot)
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby safariguy5 on Mon Nov 14, 2011 9:18 pm

nagerous wrote:6. The attack the noob from an experienced player bias - whenever a player of experience seems to be picking on a new player he is instantly accused of being scum for going for a 'easy lynch' (happens to me a lot)

Only when Fir is around it seems.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby strike wolf on Mon Nov 14, 2011 9:29 pm

nagerous wrote:6. The attack the noob from an experienced player bias - whenever a player of experience seems to be picking on a new player he is instantly accused of being scum for going for a 'easy lynch' (happens to me a lot)


perhaps we can shorten this to the Nagerous Bias then? ;)

7. THe long post bias-the idea that because a post is long it is more relevant to game play (It does usually hold true but a lot of these hold true in many circumstances).
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby strike wolf on Tue Nov 15, 2011 12:04 am

8. confirmation bias: this one's actually one I'm studying in Psychology currently. It's the tendency for someone to change scenarios and twist evidence into a form that fits their perception of what is happening.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby Mr. Squirrel on Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:41 am

strike wolf wrote:1. The right-wrong bias: the thought process that sometimes forms when one person campaigns heavily for one case on a person and the accused dies as town then the person who campaigned for his lynch is more likely scum. Or if the accuser dies then the accused is that much more likely to be scum.

Funny story:
The other night I was the narrator for a RL mafia game that was going on in my dorm (I have corrupted a bunch of people and gotten them hooked). There was a vig who was damn sure he knew who the godfather was N1. Despite his campaigning, he couldn't get enough support from the town to get the lynch. So he ended up killing himself N4 to make the godfather look suspicious. It worked and the godfather was lynched D5. :lol: Funniest thing I have ever seen.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby safariguy5 on Tue Nov 15, 2011 3:00 am

strike wolf wrote:8. confirmation bias: this one's actually one I'm studying in Psychology currently. It's the tendency for someone to change scenarios and twist evidence into a form that fits their perception of what is happening.

Also the reason why nobody ever wins any debate we have in the OT forum.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby shieldgenerator7 on Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:19 pm

9. Role bias - when the role that you are playing effects what you do and think during the game
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby strike wolf on Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:39 pm

Mr. Squirrel wrote:
strike wolf wrote:1. The right-wrong bias: the thought process that sometimes forms when one person campaigns heavily for one case on a person and the accused dies as town then the person who campaigned for his lynch is more likely scum. Or if the accuser dies then the accused is that much more likely to be scum.

Funny story:
The other night I was the narrator for a RL mafia game that was going on in my dorm (I have corrupted a bunch of people and gotten them hooked). There was a vig who was damn sure he knew who the godfather was N1. Despite his campaigning, he couldn't get enough support from the town to get the lynch. So he ended up killing himself N4 to make the godfather look suspicious. It worked and the godfather was lynched D5. :lol: Funniest thing I have ever seen.


I've got to admit...that move may be genius.

10. Agreement bias: the concept that someone who agrees with you is more likely town.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby Mr. Squirrel on Tue Nov 15, 2011 2:47 pm

strike wolf wrote:
Mr. Squirrel wrote:
strike wolf wrote:1. The right-wrong bias: the thought process that sometimes forms when one person campaigns heavily for one case on a person and the accused dies as town then the person who campaigned for his lynch is more likely scum. Or if the accuser dies then the accused is that much more likely to be scum.

Funny story:
The other night I was the narrator for a RL mafia game that was going on in my dorm (I have corrupted a bunch of people and gotten them hooked). There was a vig who was damn sure he knew who the godfather was N1. Despite his campaigning, he couldn't get enough support from the town to get the lynch. So he ended up killing himself N4 to make the godfather look suspicious. It worked and the godfather was lynched D5. :lol: Funniest thing I have ever seen.


I've got to admit...that move may be genius.

It worked there because they are all fairly new at this. Unfortunately, if one of our players did it we would all just dismiss it as WIFOM and disregard the whole thing.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby zimmah on Tue Nov 15, 2011 2:56 pm

Mr. Squirrel wrote:
strike wolf wrote:1. The right-wrong bias: the thought process that sometimes forms when one person campaigns heavily for one case on a person and the accused dies as town then the person who campaigned for his lynch is more likely scum. Or if the accuser dies then the accused is that much more likely to be scum.

Funny story:
The other night I was the narrator for a RL mafia game that was going on in my dorm (I have corrupted a bunch of people and gotten them hooked). There was a vig who was damn sure he knew who the godfather was N1. Despite his campaigning, he couldn't get enough support from the town to get the lynch. So he ended up killing himself N4 to make the godfather look suspicious. It worked and the godfather was lynched D5. :lol: Funniest thing I have ever seen.


that's smart, funny and risky at the same time.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby zimmah on Tue Nov 15, 2011 2:57 pm

strike wolf wrote:
Mr. Squirrel wrote:
strike wolf wrote:1. The right-wrong bias: the thought process that sometimes forms when one person campaigns heavily for one case on a person and the accused dies as town then the person who campaigned for his lynch is more likely scum. Or if the accuser dies then the accused is that much more likely to be scum.

Funny story:
The other night I was the narrator for a RL mafia game that was going on in my dorm (I have corrupted a bunch of people and gotten them hooked). There was a vig who was damn sure he knew who the godfather was N1. Despite his campaigning, he couldn't get enough support from the town to get the lynch. So he ended up killing himself N4 to make the godfather look suspicious. It worked and the godfather was lynched D5. :lol: Funniest thing I have ever seen.


I've got to admit...that move may be genius.

10. Agreement bias: the concept that someone who agrees with you is more likely town.


simular to this:

11. bandwagon bias: a lot of players are voting him, so he must be scum right?
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby zimmah on Tue Nov 15, 2011 2:58 pm

Mr. Squirrel wrote:
strike wolf wrote:
Mr. Squirrel wrote:
strike wolf wrote:1. The right-wrong bias: the thought process that sometimes forms when one person campaigns heavily for one case on a person and the accused dies as town then the person who campaigned for his lynch is more likely scum. Or if the accuser dies then the accused is that much more likely to be scum.

Funny story:
The other night I was the narrator for a RL mafia game that was going on in my dorm (I have corrupted a bunch of people and gotten them hooked). There was a vig who was damn sure he knew who the godfather was N1. Despite his campaigning, he couldn't get enough support from the town to get the lynch. So he ended up killing himself N4 to make the godfather look suspicious. It worked and the godfather was lynched D5. :lol: Funniest thing I have ever seen.


I've got to admit...that move may be genius.

It worked there because they are all fairly new at this. Unfortunately, if one of our players did it we would all just dismiss it as WIFOM and disregard the whole thing.


12. WIFOM bias. if it can be considered WIFOM, it is WIFOM. to the extreme.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby strike wolf on Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:54 pm

Mr. Squirrel wrote:
strike wolf wrote:
Mr. Squirrel wrote:
strike wolf wrote:1. The right-wrong bias: the thought process that sometimes forms when one person campaigns heavily for one case on a person and the accused dies as town then the person who campaigned for his lynch is more likely scum. Or if the accuser dies then the accused is that much more likely to be scum.

Funny story:
The other night I was the narrator for a RL mafia game that was going on in my dorm (I have corrupted a bunch of people and gotten them hooked). There was a vig who was damn sure he knew who the godfather was N1. Despite his campaigning, he couldn't get enough support from the town to get the lynch. So he ended up killing himself N4 to make the godfather look suspicious. It worked and the godfather was lynched D5. :lol: Funniest thing I have ever seen.


I've got to admit...that move may be genius.

It worked there because they are all fairly new at this. Unfortunately, if one of our players did it we would all just dismiss it as WIFOM and disregard the whole thing.


I don't know. It still seems to come up way too often and at least gets people thinking about the guy.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby Victor Sullivan on Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:30 pm

13. Meta/Past bias: When a player is acting dissimilar to the way they behaved in previous games.

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Re: bias in mafia

Postby Victor Sullivan on Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:31 pm

And this is awesome:
Mr. Squirrel wrote:
strike wolf wrote:1. The right-wrong bias: the thought process that sometimes forms when one person campaigns heavily for one case on a person and the accused dies as town then the person who campaigned for his lynch is more likely scum. Or if the accuser dies then the accused is that much more likely to be scum.

Funny story:
The other night I was the narrator for a RL mafia game that was going on in my dorm (I have corrupted a bunch of people and gotten them hooked). There was a vig who was damn sure he knew who the godfather was N1. Despite his campaigning, he couldn't get enough support from the town to get the lynch. So he ended up killing himself N4 to make the godfather look suspicious. It worked and the godfather was lynched D5. :lol: Funniest thing I have ever seen.

:lol:

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Re: bias in mafia

Postby safariguy5 on Mon Nov 21, 2011 6:16 pm

14. Veteran Nightkill Bias: Veteran players tend to be targeted for nightkills early on before they can really get down to scumhunting. The fear is they got a read on a mafia player and will pursue the lead aggressively unless silenced early.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby MeDeFe on Tue Nov 22, 2011 5:49 am

safariguy5 wrote:14. Veteran Nightkill Bias: Veteran players tend to be targeted for nightkills early on before they can really get down to scumhunting. The fear is they got a read on a mafia player and will pursue the lead aggressively unless silenced early.

Then the surviving veterans are likely to be scum and get lynched.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Sat Nov 26, 2011 4:53 pm

safariguy5 wrote:14. Veteran Nightkill Bias: Veteran players tend to be targeted for nightkills early on before they can really get down to scumhunting. The fear is they got a read on a mafia player and will pursue the lead aggressively unless silenced early.


You should call this the nagerous, esp. when it's N1.

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Re: bias in mafia

Postby strike wolf on Sat Nov 26, 2011 4:59 pm

strike wolf wrote:
nagerous wrote:6. The attack the noob from an experienced player bias - whenever a player of experience seems to be picking on a new player he is instantly accused of being scum for going for a 'easy lynch' (happens to me a lot)


perhaps we can shorten this to the Nagerous Bias then? ;)

7. THe long post bias-the idea that because a post is long it is more relevant to game play (It does usually hold true but a lot of these hold true in many circumstances).
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby Victor Sullivan on Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:35 pm

I think nagerous should have his own entire set of biases :lol:

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Re: bias in mafia

Postby zimmah on Sun Nov 27, 2011 2:57 pm

MeDeFe wrote:
safariguy5 wrote:14. Veteran Nightkill Bias: Veteran players tend to be targeted for nightkills early on before they can really get down to scumhunting. The fear is they got a read on a mafia player and will pursue the lead aggressively unless silenced early.

Then the surviving veterans are likely to be scum and get lynched.


that is n fact a good point.

any surviving veterans that made it through n5 or so should be lynched for this reason alone. :lol:
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby strike wolf on Sun Nov 27, 2011 5:42 pm

Well not exactly usually by night 2 or 3 mafia are more informed and have a better idea of who to target than just veterans. So really if a veteran survives n1 as town their chances of surviving until end game increase dramatically.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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Re: bias in mafia

Postby safariguy5 on Sun Nov 27, 2011 7:57 pm

Victor Sullivan wrote:I think nagerous should have his own entire set of biases :lol:

-Sully

His biases would probably have corollaries like:

If nagerous and Fircoal are both in the same game, nagerous will attack a noob if there is one and Fir will defend the noob.

If nagerous and mandy are both in the same game, expect nagerous to warn everyone that mandy makes a lot of convoluted theories.
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