Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

[GreecePwns]

Following the recent vote for austerity and subsequent vote of confidence for ruling PM and New IMF Employee-of-the-Year Lucas Papademos by the ruling coalition of center-right New Democracy, center-left PASOK and social conservative LAOS, the three parties began kicking out all members who voted against the measures. As a result, everyone and their mother is starting up their own parties in anticipation of the next election.

At the same time, support for the two major parties, ND and PASOK, is continuing to fall to historic lows: 35% combined for the two in the last opinion poll, compared to 77% in 2009. The same poll projects 9 parties to return to pass the 3% threshold to enter Parliament, and a majority government coalition looks to be near impossible.

Greek election laws state:
A party or a coalition of parties elects MPs only if its nationwide tally exceeds 3% of the total valid vote
250 of 300 total seats are apportioned proportionally
The first-past-the post party or coalition receives a 50-seat bonus

This is the current makeup of Government
PASOK - 130 seats, centre-left pro-austerity party of former PM Georgios Papandreou
New Democracy - 67 seats, centre-right pro-austerity party

This is the rest of Parliament
KKE - 21 seats, Stalinist anti-austerity party
LAOS - 16 seats, right-wing anti-austerity party which only voted for it as it is "pro-national unity," whatever that means
SYRIZA-Unitary Social Front - 9 seats, anti-capitalist anti-austerity coalition
Democratic Left - 10 seats, anti-austerity group that voted for it as a "necessary evil," broke away from SYRIZA as they felt the party had moved too far to the left (they now sit between the center-left and far left in their positions)
Social Contract - 9 seats, anti-austerity former PASOK members (this party is very similar to PASOK ideologically)
Independent Greeks - 9 seats, anti-austerity former ND members (this party is to the right of ND)
Democratic Alliance - 4 seats, anti-austerity former ND members (this party is now centrist)
There are also 23 independents (this number is constantly in flux)

These are other parties which could possibly enter Parliament
Greens - environmentalist group with no clear position on austerity
Golden Dawn - neo-Nazi anti-austerity group
Anticaptialist Left Cooperation for the Overthrow - revolutionary communist anti-austerity group

The last opinion polls, released within the last week, gives us this result:

New Democracy 21.5%
PASOK 14.0%
SYRIZA-Unitary Social Front 13%
KKE 11%
Independent Greeks 11%
Democratic Left 9.5%
Golden Dawn 5.5%
Greens 3.5%
LAOS 3%
----------------------------------------------
Democratic Alliance 2%
Anticapitalist Left Cooperation for the Overthrow 1.0
All others >1%

This yields the following Parliament:
New Democracy 108
PASOK 39 (Big 2 combined: 147)
SYRIZA 35
KKE 30
Independent Greeks 30
Democratic Left 26
Golden Dawn 15
Greens 9
LAOS 8

[saxitoxin]

GP - Can New Democracy and LAOS form a coalition or is the latter too far right to suppose it could last more than a few months?

Also, summarize and give your opinion on this:
http://www.epikaira.gr/epikairo.php?id= ... ries_id=69

[GreecePwns]

LAOS has a nationalist faction that would be considered too far right for ND to associate themselves with.

The article is about a recent investigation by Russian intelligence uncovering a plot to assassinate former PM Kostas Karamanlis. Here is a better source of information which I am still reading right now. I'll give a more of a response when I'm done with this.

A new opinion poll was released a few minutes ago incidentally, so I will alter my results shortly to reflect it

EDIT: The results have been updated. This is the most recent opinion poll:



PASOK 12.0
ND 30.5
KKE 12.5
LAOS 6.0
SYRIZA 12.5
OP 3.0
DISY 2.5
DIMAR 13.0
ANTARSYA (Anticapitalist Left-Cooperation for the Overthrow: a communist party) 1.0
XA (Gold Dawn: a Neo-Nazi party) 2.5
ARMA (Panhellenic Citizen Chariot; a anti-bailout breakaway from PASOK which presently has 1 seat in Parliament) 2.5
Other 2.0

If we were to only include the results of this poll as our mock parliament, this would be the configuration
ND 135 seats
DIMAR 36
KKE 35
SYRIZA 35
PASOK 34
LAOS 17
OP 8

[saxitoxin]

LAOS has a nationalist faction that would be considered too far right for ND to associate themselves with.

The article is about a recent investigation by Russian intelligence uncovering a plot to assassinate former PM Kostas Karamanlis. Here is a better source of information which I am still reading right now. I'll give a more of a response when I'm done with this.

A new opinion poll was released a few minutes ago incidentally, so I will alter my results shortly to reflect it

EDIT: The results have been updated. This is the most recent opinion poll:



PASOK 12.0
ND 30.5
KKE 12.5
LAOS 6.0
SYRIZA 12.5
OP 3.0
DISY 2.5
DIMAR 13.0
ANTARSYA (Anticapitalist Left-Cooperation for the Overthrow: a communist party) 1.0
XA (Gold Dawn: a Neo-Nazi party) 2.5
ARMA (Panhellenic Citizen Chariot; a anti-bailout breakaway from PASOK which presently has 1 seat in Parliament) 2.5
Other 2.0

If we were to only include the results of this poll as our mock parliament, this would be the configuration
ND 126 seats
DIMAR 33
KKE 31
SYRIZA 31
PASOK 30
LAOS 15
OP 8

this looks like a disaster parliament; if I read it correctly there's no possible coalition except a Grand Coalition and a Grand Coalition seems like it would be perilous for Greece

[GreecePwns]

I corrected a mathematical error in that post (I only gave 274 seats due to a typo), but the corrected numbers look no better. None of the projected parties in parliament are likely to partner with ND (not even ND+PASOK is enough).

EDIT: ND + PASOK is possible, actually. So is ND + any other party in the 30s really, but PASOK is the closest one ideologically and the only one which voted for the bailout.

[GreecePwns]

A further note: the election will be in April

[GreecePwns]

Disregard this post.

[GreecePwns]

A new opinion poll released today has the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn and DISY in Parliament. Here is the seat configuration with 9 parties in Parliament:

ND 125
PASOK 36
KKE 35
SYRIZA 33
DIMAR 32
LAOS 14
Greens 9
DISY 8
XA 8

The 2 major parties recorded a record low 40.5% of votes in this opinion poll. In the last election in 2009, they had 77.4% of votes.

Under this configuration ND + PASOK is still the only possible coalition government. All others are either impossible or grossly unrealistic.

[nagerous]

Doesn't look good for the Greeks.

[GreecePwns]

The problem with this Parliament is that, while the major parties are losing control, no real alternative has emerged. DIMAR has very popular leadership which is why they're looking at a near 10-fold increase in seats. If the left parties want to take advantage of their new found popularity they must run as a single coalition.

[saxitoxin]

A new opinion poll released today has the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn and DISY in Parliament. Here is the seat configuration with 9 parties in Parliament:

ND 125
PASOK 36
KKE 35
SYRIZA 33
DIMAR 32
LAOS 14
Greens 9
DISY 8
XA 8

The 2 major parties recorded a record low 40.5% of votes in this opinion poll. In the last election in 2009, they had 77.4% of votes.

Under this configuration ND + PASOK is still the only possible coalition government. All others are either impossible or grossly unrealistic.

I was just reading up on the Golden Dawn on WIKIPEDIA. This is an interesting group. Many outfits labeled as fascist are really just traditional conservative groups. But the Golden Dawn appears to, legitimately, be a revolutionary fascist group -- paganism, anti-capitalism, the whole 9 yards.

[GreecePwns]

Yep. And lately they've been infiltrating a few of the ultras groups for our football clubs, which are predominantly leftist/anarchist.

Greek technocrat PM Lucas Papademos announced he has reached a deal for a new austerity package which includes harsh pension cuts. LAOS leader Georgios Karatzaferis, in response (and probably due to the decline of his party's popularity), has announced a likely withdrawal from the government of national unity, leaving only PASOK and ND left in government. The most recent opinion poll has their combined support at just 39 percent now, with Democratic Left growing to a staggering high of 18 percent. This opens either a ND+PASOK or ND+DIMAR coalition in April should poll numbers hold.

(I will update the seat numbers later today)

[HapSmo19]

Greece should try National Socialism to pull em' outta' their slump.

FYI: I'm pretty sure that flying the NS banner wouldn't automatically require them to kill all the jews but I'll look into it. They may wanna change the banner, too.

[Phatscotty]

It's too bad Greece did not have a tea party. The message of "less debt, less spending" might have done something to prevent people setting themselves on fire in banks and other suicides, riots, blood in the streets, mass unemployment, food shortages etc etc etc etc.

At least an attempt to be responsible

[GreecePwns]

Scotty, will you continue to ignore the facts and make the Greek economic crisis a spending issue?

The Greek economic crisis was caused by corrupt officials from the federal government down to the local governments purposefully allowing taxpayers to report salaries on average 60 percent less than their real salary, which in turn causes massive government debt. The German and French power grabbers and ignorant fiscal conservatives can blame this on spending all they want and call for the Greek working people to be punished, but it is simply not true.