Strategy versus Dice

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Strategy versus Dice

Postby AslanTheKing on Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:35 pm

Hello again,

i do have a interesting subject

how much luck do you need , to beat strategy
and how much strategy do u need to beat dice,

as changra ( very intellectual poster) said
u have to make the dice work for u.

I realised , since i have played the first time the map of City Mogul
that dice dont matter anymore, hurray ( they do of course, but is it worth mentioning? )

And since i have been reading my way through the posts, i realized that everybody is an expert ,
like when i read newspapers, in the forum everybody is a politician
which reminds me of the saying

“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”

And when i said something about the dice, it was considered as dicebitching and i got slapped left and right.

Well i have now passed 1000 games, but why did it take me so long to start to get the swing into things ( well I'm not there yet, but i do start to understand the meaning of let the dice work for u ).

So the meaning of this post is really get input from u godplaying Members of CC , to understand dice ( good dice, bad dice what so ever)
and to understand strategy.

Of course with every different map, dice and strategy is changing, and thats actually the keyword.

In the beginning of my CC Career :mrgreen: , i have stubbornly just played classic.

Of course u have to try different maps to get the feeling of CC.
Even every map is different, u can break it down what is dicerelated like classic, 1 vs 1 games i am talking now only, or luxembourg and so on
( u have to continue that yourself ), and maps where knowledge is more the keyword than strategy really, since knowledge of a map comes first
then u can make a strategy based on your facts of knowledge and experience of course.

When comes experience into play, well if u sit on your comp 24 hours a day, u get it fast,
but like me, working, taking care of friends and family, and living a social life which is time consuming, not that easy.

So my plan of this post is really, getting all necessary information of u guys, which will help new players understanding CC,
and i would like to explain it like i would to a 6 year old child.
( if u cant explain something to a 6 year old child, then u probably dont understand it yourself )
meaning, i want to make it as easy as possible , so everybody got something from it ( except the guys who have 3000 points anyway).

I am looking forward to it.

When i started i read a thread from Kiron and Xiangwang? But in this early days i had no idea what they where talking about ( diplomacy etc...)
i evern accused them of foul play and cheating- u can look it up, just go back to 2011.

That should be enough for now, but i will carry this on, hope u give me your thoughts of strategy and dice, and all about maps...
I used to roll the dice
Feel the fear in my enemy´s eyes
Listen as the crowd would sing:

Long live the Army Of Kings !


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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby Funkyterrance on Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:49 pm

I am by no means an expert player but I feel I have a pretty good handle on the dice. I don't use calculators or anything like that but I have found that over time you get a "6th sense" as to what is doable and when to stop. I suppose by this method the randomness of the dice don't really enter into. I do think that calculators work as an alternative as I am one of the believers that yes, the dice are as random as they come. Could I use calculators to improve my game? Maybe, but it's karma that I thrive on and I trust and thoroughly enjoy my method.
So I guess my point is that you can't predict the dice but you can have a sense about them and know their limits in general. That being said, its all about strategy. If the dice just aren't there, you eventually learn to accept it and rest assured that your strategy did the best it could.
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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby AslanTheKing on Thu Oct 11, 2012 11:55 pm

Funkyterrance wrote:I am by no means an expert player but I feel I have a pretty good handle on the dice. I don't use calculators or anything like that but I have found that over time you get a "6th sense" as to what is doable and when to stop. I suppose by this method the randomness of the dice don't really enter into. I do think that calculators work as an alternative as I am one of the believers that yes, the dice are as random as they come. Could I use calculators to improve my game? Maybe, but it's karma that I thrive on and I trust and thoroughly enjoy my method.
So I guess my point is that you can't predict the dice but you can have a sense about them and know their limits in general. That being said, its all about strategy. If the dice just aren't there, you eventually learn to accept it and rest assured that your strategy did the best it could.


very well said, i comment only quick, but as this post goes on, i will put it together, theres more to come
if the people are willing to leave this post to be alive :o
I used to roll the dice
Feel the fear in my enemy´s eyes
Listen as the crowd would sing:

Long live the Army Of Kings !


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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby Mr Changsha on Fri Oct 12, 2012 1:11 am

I usually know when I up against a team that is superior to my own (often if I am joining a trips on a map I am unfamilair with) because I am hoping - possibly actually feeling I need - to get good dice in the early rounds. When playing against weaker opposition, I am very blase about going 5 or 10 down on dice, as I assume my deployments and forts will drag my team back into it in the mid.game.

So, and to be honest with you this isn't rocket science, I know I need a bit of luck against better opposition while against weaker I know they will need some luck against me.

One thing I would add though...delusional thinking is one of the greatest dangers Risk players face. The classic mentality of 'I won because of strategy they won because of dice' is so widespread on this site that it astounds me. So many seem utterly unable to accept that the other team may be smarter, or know the game better, or be better coordinated. The dice allow many a ready-made excuse to explain away almost any defeat. I'll give you an example of how I try to think about it: in one of my current trips my man had a 13 on 6 to break the opposition's bonus and more than likely grab full control of the game. He missed in the most abject fashion. From there the game began to slip away. Yet I made sure to recognise that even after his miss, the troop numbers were basically even. I suspect my team will lose this game, and the dice overall have probably not been in our favour (in that in key moments ours have collapsed both offensively and defensively), but I also recognise that the opposition hung in there well when we were on top, that they also had their dice collapses...and also that my own play is not exactly at its best right now (I am a bit distracted with other things). The point of this horribly rambling paragraph? That I consciously try hard to recognise the quality of the opposition's play and that I rarely blame my losses on dice. In the case of this game I think I made the error of basing my team's strategy on the assumption that the 13 on 6 would go through. Everything had been set up on that basis. Once it missed we were exposed. Of course odds are it should have worked, there was some chance my man would go on a tear and end the game there and then. But there was always the possibility he would miss, and I blame myself that I didn't have a plan b.

So that's how I try to think about these things. I know I am not the best teams player here or anything close. I am usually up against teams with FAR more experience than me and I try my best to give a good game to the opposition. When I lose I take my licks and invariably blame myself rather than the dice. I think this basic honesty allows me to improve. I recognise my mistakes and from doing so am able to adjust my strategy.

Finally, once a game is finished win or lose I can usually see the genesis of the result in the opening two rounds. Many things happen in the mid. game that are crucial, but that original basic decision of, for example, whether to deploy in the north and fort in the south or vice versa tends to be what really influnced the result. Round 1 in a trips is not that dice-dependent (often), but the original positioning is what really influences the game. Invariably when I lose I blame my opening strategy...when I win I tend to see the opening as equally key.
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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby AslanTheKing on Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:02 am

nice input here again
I used to roll the dice
Feel the fear in my enemy´s eyes
Listen as the crowd would sing:

Long live the Army Of Kings !


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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby AslanTheKing on Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:09 am

In the past i used to get frustrated and upset, because it was unfair- i thought
now hold on a moment, there are games u know in rd 1 , it is game over
so why waste your energy on that game? call it game over, dont give up, keep fighting, but dont put negative energy into it,
i just played a speed game where i knew , its not gonna work, that easy, i had that sixth sense ( i started the game and knew it )
so i stopped getting angry, i startet to accept it as it is, because i know, the next game will be different
but to keep the head over the water u should remember not to let your head hang down

( the easiest advice here is not playing 1 vs 1 games , i know that, but i havent reached that stage yet being WILLING to understand that,
that will come with the time, i know )
I used to roll the dice
Feel the fear in my enemy´s eyes
Listen as the crowd would sing:

Long live the Army Of Kings !


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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby Funkyterrance on Fri Oct 12, 2012 1:01 pm

Mr Changsha wrote:One thing I would add though...delusional thinking is one of the greatest dangers Risk players face. The classic mentality of 'I won because of strategy they won because of dice' is so widespread on this site that it astounds me. So many seem utterly unable to accept that the other team may be smarter, or know the game better, or be better coordinated.


While I agree that this may be the mentality of some beginning/casual players I don't think that very many experienced players fall prey to this delusion. The dice eventually come out in the wash, more or less, so it boils down to strategy on either side. Superior strategy+superior dice equals a win, superior strategy+equal dice equals a win, superior strategy+inferior dice is a possible win given key opportunities as you described. As far as overlooking the fact that other players have superior strategy to oneself, well that becomes evident when your dice are equal or better than your opponent and you end up losing lol. If you are paying attention its a pretty hard fact to deny.
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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby rhp 1 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 4:15 pm

Mr Changsha wrote:I usually know when I up against a team that is superior to my own (often if I am joining a trips on a map I am unfamilair with) because I am hoping - possibly actually feeling I need - to get good dice in the early rounds. When playing against weaker opposition, I am very blase about going 5 or 10 down on dice, as I assume my deployments and forts will drag my team back into it in the mid.game.

So, and to be honest with you this isn't rocket science, I know I need a bit of luck against better opposition while against weaker I know they will need some luck against me.

One thing I would add though...delusional thinking is one of the greatest dangers Risk players face. The classic mentality of 'I won because of strategy they won because of dice' is so widespread on this site that it astounds me. So many seem utterly unable to accept that the other team may be smarter, or know the game better, or be better coordinated. The dice allow many a ready-made excuse to explain away almost any defeat. I'll give you an example of how I try to think about it: in one of my current trips my man had a 13 on 6 to break the opposition's bonus and more than likely grab full control of the game. He missed in the most abject fashion. From there the game began to slip away. Yet I made sure to recognise that even after his miss, the troop numbers were basically even. I suspect my team will lose this game, and the dice overall have probably not been in our favour (in that in key moments ours have collapsed both offensively and defensively), but I also recognise that the opposition hung in there well when we were on top, that they also had their dice collapses...and also that my own play is not exactly at its best right now (I am a bit distracted with other things). The point of this horribly rambling paragraph? That I consciously try hard to recognise the quality of the opposition's play and that I rarely blame my losses on dice. In the case of this game I think I made the error of basing my team's strategy on the assumption that the 13 on 6 would go through. Everything had been set up on that basis. Once it missed we were exposed. Of course odds are it should have worked, there was some chance my man would go on a tear and end the game there and then. But there was always the possibility he would miss, and I blame myself that I didn't have a plan b.

So that's how I try to think about these things. I know I am not the best teams player here or anything close. I am usually up against teams with FAR more experience than me and I try my best to give a good game to the opposition. When I lose I take my licks and invariably blame myself rather than the dice. I think this basic honesty allows me to improve. I recognise my mistakes and from doing so am able to adjust my strategy.

Finally, once a game is finished win or lose I can usually see the genesis of the result in the opening two rounds. Many things happen in the mid. game that are crucial, but that original basic decision of, for example, whether to deploy in the north and fort in the south or vice versa tends to be what really influnced the result. Round 1 in a trips is not that dice-dependent (often), but the original positioning is what really influences the game. Invariably when I lose I blame my opening strategy...when I win I tend to see the opening as equally key.



well said...
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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby Funkyterrance on Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:31 pm

rhp 1 wrote:

well said...


Not for nothing but did you have to quote his whole novel? I am not saying either way but it's just hard to tell the difference between actual agreement/comprehension and ass kissing when someone makes a huge quotation and then offers two words of their own that don't have any particular meaning in themselves. It also takes up a shitload of space.
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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby chang50 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 1:38 am

Funkyterrance wrote:
Mr Changsha wrote:One thing I would add though...delusional thinking is one of the greatest dangers Risk players face. The classic mentality of 'I won because of strategy they won because of dice' is so widespread on this site that it astounds me. So many seem utterly unable to accept that the other team may be smarter, or know the game better, or be better coordinated.


While I agree that this may be the mentality of some beginning/casual players I don't think that very many experienced players fall prey to this delusion. The dice eventually come out in the wash, more or less, so it boils down to strategy on either side. Superior strategy+superior dice equals a win, superior strategy+equal dice equals a win, superior strategy+inferior dice is a possible win given key opportunities as you described. As far as overlooking the fact that other players have superior strategy to oneself, well that becomes evident when your dice are equal or better than your opponent and you end up losing lol. If you are paying attention its a pretty hard fact to deny.


Not often this happens but we are in complete agreement on this..
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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby Mr Changsha on Sat Oct 13, 2012 3:31 am

We can really only base our views on this from our own personal experience. I have to say that in mine most players experienced or not suffer from this delusion..if only to a certain extent. That when we win it is due to a superior strategy and when we lose it is due to dice. I also believe that this common delusion actively and negatively affects play, for if one naturally blames their losses on dice (and the dice always throw up the odd bad result) then the player doesn't look for the real cause of their loss...blaming the dice is liking wrapping oneself in a comfort blanket of determined ignorance... ;)
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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby chang50 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 3:46 am

Mr Changsha wrote:We can really only base our views on this from our own personal experience. I have to say that in mine most players experienced or not suffer from this delusion..if only to a certain extent. That when we win it is due to a superior strategy and when we lose it is due to dice. I also believe that this common delusion actively and negatively affects play, for if one naturally blames their losses on dice (and the dice always throw up the odd bad result) then the player doesn't look for the real cause of their loss...blaming the dice is liking wrapping oneself in a comfort blanket of determined ignorance... ;)


I think it was Natty who likened the irrationality and fervour of dicebitching to religious belief,the similie of the comfort blanket is also apt.
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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby rhp 1 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:09 am

Funkyterrance wrote:
rhp 1 wrote:

well said...


Not for nothing but did you have to quote his whole novel? I am not saying either way but it's just hard to tell the difference between actual agreement/comprehension and ass kissing when someone makes a huge quotation and then offers two words of their own that don't have any particular meaning in themselves. It also takes up a shitload of space.



heh... You obviously don't know me at all... I don't kiss anyone's ass... but it's interesting that that is what enters your mind.. if you don't like, don't pay attention to it... and yea.. it's a real nightmare to scroll past a long post... real, real sorry about that bubb..
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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby BigBallinStalin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 10:13 am

Mr Changsha wrote:I usually know when I up against a team that is superior to my own (often if I am joining a trips on a map I am unfamilair with) because I am hoping - possibly actually feeling I need - to get good dice in the early rounds. When playing against weaker opposition, I am very blase about going 5 or 10 down on dice, as I assume my deployments and forts will drag my team back into it in the mid.game.

So, and to be honest with you this isn't rocket science, I know I need a bit of luck against better opposition while against weaker I know they will need some luck against me.

One thing I would add though...delusional thinking is one of the greatest dangers Risk players face. The classic mentality of 'I won because of strategy they won because of dice' is so widespread on this site that it astounds me. So many seem utterly unable to accept that the other team may be smarter, or know the game better, or be better coordinated. The dice allow many a ready-made excuse to explain away almost any defeat. I'll give you an example of how I try to think about it: in one of my current trips my man had a 13 on 6 to break the opposition's bonus and more than likely grab full control of the game. He missed in the most abject fashion. From there the game began to slip away. Yet I made sure to recognise that even after his miss, the troop numbers were basically even. I suspect my team will lose this game, and the dice overall have probably not been in our favour (in that in key moments ours have collapsed both offensively and defensively), but I also recognise that the opposition hung in there well when we were on top, that they also had their dice collapses...and also that my own play is not exactly at its best right now (I am a bit distracted with other things). The point of this horribly rambling paragraph? That I consciously try hard to recognise the quality of the opposition's play and that I rarely blame my losses on dice. In the case of this game I think I made the error of basing my team's strategy on the assumption that the 13 on 6 would go through. Everything had been set up on that basis. Once it missed we were exposed. Of course odds are it should have worked, there was some chance my man would go on a tear and end the game there and then. But there was always the possibility he would miss, and I blame myself that I didn't have a plan b.

So that's how I try to think about these things. I know I am not the best teams player here or anything close. I am usually up against teams with FAR more experience than me and I try my best to give a good game to the opposition. When I lose I take my licks and invariably blame myself rather than the dice. I think this basic honesty allows me to improve. I recognise my mistakes and from doing so am able to adjust my strategy.

Finally, once a game is finished win or lose I can usually see the genesis of the result in the opening two rounds. Many things happen in the mid. game that are crucial, but that original basic decision of, for example, whether to deploy in the north and fort in the south or vice versa tends to be what really influnced the result. Round 1 in a trips is not that dice-dependent (often), but the original positioning is what really influences the game. Invariably when I lose I blame my opening strategy...when I win I tend to see the opening as equally key.


I do not disagree with you on the perils of delusional thinking; however, you seem to take the cause-and-effect relationship between dice and planning too far. For example, yes, the opening strategy and original position are important; however, with some games, Lady Luck sleeps with the other team the entire game, or she's withholding too much of her services for your team. In other words, for some instances--no matter how well you planned--the blame falls on the dice. Doing X, Y and Z instead of A, B, and C would not have mattered because chance in some cases will render such changes moot.

The problem with your perspective on this matter, which if I'm not mistaken seems to be 100% internal locus of control, is that there are some aberrations which are beyond your system's capability to correct. W. Edwards Deming, a production operations big shot who created Systems Theory, basically said that there are anomalies which fall outside of your system, i.e. your firm and management style. Trying to correct for these anomalies, or seeking to have a "zero-defect" goal, is not plausible because you may ruin the system while attempting to correct for some anomalies.

This isn't to say that one should simply write off all losses to bad dice and attribute all wins to superior strategy. That would be delusional. My point is that there are some things which cannot be corrected for and should not be corrected for--by top management (like the Dictator). Usually, such anomalies would be dealt by "lower management" or the "workers."


For example, there is one thing which is difficult to manage. While a teammate throws 13 v 6 and is incurring high casualties, sometimes it's best for them to stop at 8v6 or 6v5, etc. We all suffer from that problem of frustration leading to constant dice throwing and knowing when enough is enough, but this is a situation grounded in local knowledge which is difficult for the top management to control for.


[Deming]
show

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards ... d_concepts
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Re: Strategy versus Dice

Postby Mr Changsha on Sat Oct 13, 2012 11:02 am

It is an interesting concept to suggest that I am equally delusional, in that I feel I have a level of control greater than I actually have. To answer it, one must consider one's experience as well as the perception of that experience.

In my experience my trips games, the majority of my dubs games, most of my large standard games and my 8 man dubs games have not seemed to be overly affected by dice. Of course they were a factor, but I feel that most were won through strategy (whether I won them or not) and the exploitation of another's weaker strategy. Some were won through dice, and I of course accept that, but most weren't.

But is this (perfectly genuine) belief based on my faulty perceptions? Do I over-emphasise the level of control I have over the result? Do I unconsciously forget the dice-related events and focus on those due to strategy? Am I the opposite side of Natty's delusional dice zealot?

Am I the fundamentalist athiest to his raving believer?

I have to accept that is possible.

Finally, maybe it is time a new madness was begun. A thread should be started for those who want to proclaim that dice don't affect them at all and posts should be made detailing in perfect detail with charts, tables and gamelogs how the player was not even touched by dice. I expect nutty posts in capitalised letters in a red font to proclaim '20 games in a row and the dice have not won or lost me one game f*ck you lack' and I see posters in the woodruff mold oh so patiently explaining how, for example, '...the fact that your team was 12 down at the end of round 2 on equal deploys proves quite conclusively, you utter fuck-wit, that dice affected your game'. Such protestations should of course be met with patronising scorn. 'You weren't there man...you didn't see the decisions I made'.
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Colonel Mr Changsha
 
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