Alphabet Mafia 2Day 6 no night deaths

[aage]

So can no one do any fucking math? This is why I hate cult games more of the time.

Aage, you foolishly assume you know what will happen to the cult when the CL dies. Players are just as likely to return to old alignments as anything else. So you then take a plan of action that will ensure the cults victory if you are recruited. BAD.

My post addresses both of these issues. Yes, I did the effing math and found that we have to kill mafiosi if we want to win. No, I don't know what will happen when the CL dies, but I can only assume that the recruits will return to their regular alignment because otherwise we're doomed anyway and I refuse to disregard an option of victory. And yes, cult games suck. Very much so.

[edocsil]

Basically what it comes down to is Aage is manipulating people and you are all willingly following. Mark me. Check at the end of the game. As of right now HE IS NOT TOWN. I will bet anything on that. He also happens to to be the single best person alive besides saf imo. So when he chases down Saf, who by all odds is cult or scum (as we have agreed, they greatly outnumber town) Now Aage is going to play massive town cred the next day with this lynch and hang one more scum. I assume he knows who all the scum are, it isn't really hard to tell at this point. The fact that he hasn't spilled the entire scum faction is exact reason I believe he is cult. He want's to feed it out in dribbles, and keep the scum from making a desperate ploy with the town vs the cult, which will likely doom the scum anyhow, but will surely end the cult as well. It will be an easy cult win if he can keep the 2-4 townies dancing to his tune and hanign the last few scum as his faction's power grows. I am not cult and I cannot let that happen. However, as per saf's inv he is not the CL, and the CL is the only threat to the town and scum atm. 1 day, 2 if the stars have aligned and your RB's were insanely lucky and town will be defeated while you follow his lead.

Partly I am venting, because I have been in this scenario a lot, and it leaves me with a firm hate for cult games. Partly because I see the same thing time and time again the scum and the cult know each other by the end of the game, and all the cards are in the cult's favor. Town gets screwed in between, and the scum usually lose to the town following a culties lead. The scum can't claim to prove who the CL likely is, they'll get steamrolled by the cult wagon. Our best bet is to take a potshot and a certain cultie, (Red) who has a chance to be the CL. Pray the scum guess right, kill the CL. Roll the scum once alignment returns for the recruits. I am certain that after tonight the game will be decided in the cult's favor if their CL does not die. It may take a day or two for them to hunt down the few remaining scum, but it will be over. Or best bet is to make the scum's odds of success as good as possible. As I have said earlier, there are only a few options for who can be the CL, and if the scum can narrow a few people out, they may have a 50/50 shot, or even be certain of the identity of the CL.

Anyhow, there is the essay's I have survived this long to write, if my earlier numbers are not enough to persuade in conjugation with this post there is likely little I can do.


Hang Red.

[safariguy5]

Well ok aage, call me whatever, but you admit I'm not cult. That said, there's no guarantee that you are still jailkeeper. All we know is that you could be recruited already and "claim" to jailkeep someone when really, you're doing nothing of the sort. Maybe town can't trust me, but they sure as heck can't trust you either. At least I'm the evil you know as opposed to the evil you don't know. I say we try and take out the cult now, and once the cult leader is gone, then you all can get back to hanging me.

Not to mention, you're calling for my lynch without knowing who the cult leader is. We assume that we have about 5-6 people who could be the cult leader. Ok, so the numbers say that only 1 of them is cult leader, and you taking a shot in the dark means that you probably won't hit them. If nothing else, logically we should lynch one of them and increase your odds of hitting the CL. Because you again, have said (and I've proven) I'm not the CL. Killing me does not make your night action any easier to pick.

I can easily investigate one of the people under suspicion (lovo maybe?) and give us an even better idea of who CL is tomorrow.

[thehippo8]

I've been keeping my head down with all this flic flacing but I think it would be wrong of me to let this continue without some comment from me. I agree with Aage and think he has this right. I know Edoc this is all ever so frustrating but you need to go back and have a think. Two issues immediately spring to mind. Firstly, by ignoring Aage you would be painting one mega target on yourself. We still have a lot of good roles out there but unless we kill scum then town loses - period. By jailing Red (or I could even night kill him assuming I survived the night) but the lynch option doesn't seem realistic for me. Secondly, by being dogmatic about it you bring attention to your motives. Just saying!

[aage]

Basically what it comes down to is Aage is manipulating people and you are all willingly following. Mark me. Check at the end of the game. As of right now HE IS NOT TOWN. I will bet anything on that. He also happens to to be the single best person alive besides saf imo. So when he chases down Saf, who by all odds is cult or scum (as we have agreed, they greatly outnumber town) Now Aage is going to play massive town cred the next day with this lynch and hang one more scum. I assume he knows who all the scum are, it isn't really hard to tell at this point. The fact that he hasn't spilled the entire scum faction is exact reason I believe he is cult. He want's to feed it out in dribbles, and keep the scum from making a desperate ploy with the town vs the cult, which will likely doom the scum anyhow, but will surely end the cult as well. It will be an easy cult win if he can keep the 2-4 townies dancing to his tune and hanign the last few scum as his faction's power grows. I am not cult and I cannot let that happen. However, as per saf's inv he is not the CL, and the CL is the only threat to the town and scum atm. 1 day, 2 if the stars have aligned and your RB's were insanely lucky and town will be defeated while you follow his lead.

Partly I am venting, because I have been in this scenario a lot, and it leaves me with a firm hate for cult games. Partly because I see the same thing time and time again the scum and the cult know each other by the end of the game, and all the cards are in the cult's favor. Town gets screwed in between, and the scum usually lose to the town following a culties lead. The scum can't claim to prove who the CL likely is, they'll get steamrolled by the cult wagon. Our best bet is to take a potshot and a certain cultie, (Red) who has a chance to be the CL. Pray the scum guess right, kill the CL. Roll the scum once alignment returns for the recruits. I am certain that after tonight the game will be decided in the cult's favor if their CL does not die. It may take a day or two for them to hunt down the few remaining scum, but it will be over. Or best bet is to make the scum's odds of success as good as possible. As I have said earlier, there are only a few options for who can be the CL, and if the scum can narrow a few people out, they may have a 50/50 shot, or even be certain of the identity of the CL.

Anyhow, there is the essay's I have survived this long to write, if my earlier numbers are not enough to persuade in conjugation with this post there is likely little I can do.


Hang Red.

There is no other way.

I have read your post, but I still think it's really easy. If we hang the CL today, scum gets a NK and town loses. If we hang scum today, there's 2 roleblockers and 2 night kills that can target the CL tonight, and we have narrowed the amount of people who could possibly be the CL to five. Those chances are an infinite times better than a certain loss for town if we hang the cult leader today.
I know you think the cult leader is the most dangerous threat to town. I agree, he would be, if we didn't have so many ways to cripple or even eliminate him during the night. At this moment town has only three "weapons" that I know of: me, Hippo and lynching. I don't want to employ the most important of these three to be used to hunt the CL. Especially since we don't know if we can even use the other two weapons at all during the following nights. Lynch is our most reliable tool to attain victory, and I will not waste it on some idiot who claimed PGO. If for some reason a member of the mafia dies tonight as well as during the day, I will follow you heartily on a Redhedge lynch, but no sooner.

Besides, for all we know Vodean could have been the CL and we're arguing over thin air now. That is also a scenario we cannot ignore, because it still means we're at lylo. Town cannot afford to make any more mistakes or mislynches from now on. Redhedge is an uncertain gamble. Saf is 100% scum. I'm not impressed by his investigative abilities because we will be able to lynch the CL tomorrow if need be; I'm very confident we'll be able to identify who's the cult leader tomorrow if every party uses their night actions wisely. Scum has nothing to gain from NK'ing me or Hippo because that would hand the win over to the CL. I doubt you want that.


As for me being town, luckily my role lets me mason up with someone for the night so you'll have a second opinion tomorrow.

[aage]

Well ok aage, call me whatever, but you admit I'm not cult. That said, there's no guarantee that you are still jailkeeper. All we know is that you could be recruited already and "claim" to jailkeep someone when really, you're doing nothing of the sort. Maybe town can't trust me, but they sure as heck can't trust you either. At least I'm the evil you know as opposed to the evil you don't know. I say we try and take out the cult now, and once the cult leader is gone, then you all can get back to hanging me.

Not to mention, you're calling for my lynch without knowing who the cult leader is. We assume that we have about 5-6 people who could be the cult leader. Ok, so the numbers say that only 1 of them is cult leader, and you taking a shot in the dark means that you probably won't hit them. If nothing else, logically we should lynch one of them and increase your odds of hitting the CL. Because you again, have said (and I've proven) I'm not the CL. Killing me does not make your night action any easier to pick.

I can easily investigate one of the people under suspicion (lovo maybe?) and give us an even better idea of who CL is tomorrow.

Actually I thought it a better idea if LoVo tried to stop the lynch we're executing on you now. That would confirm his claim.

[edocsil]

Well ok aage, call me whatever, but you admit I'm not cult. That said, there's no guarantee that you are still jailkeeper. All we know is that you could be recruited already and "claim" to jailkeep someone when really, you're doing nothing of the sort. Maybe town can't trust me, but they sure as heck can't trust you either. At least I'm the evil you know as opposed to the evil you don't know. I say we try and take out the cult now, and once the cult leader is gone, then you all can get back to hanging me.

Not to mention, you're calling for my lynch without knowing who the cult leader is. We assume that we have about 5-6 people who could be the cult leader. Ok, so the numbers say that only 1 of them is cult leader, and you taking a shot in the dark means that you probably won't hit them. If nothing else, logically we should lynch one of them and increase your odds of hitting the CL. Because you again, have said (and I've proven) I'm not the CL. Killing me does not make your night action any easier to pick.

I can easily investigate one of the people under suspicion (lovo maybe?) and give us an even better idea of who CL is tomorrow.

Actually I thought it a better idea if LoVo tried to stop the lynch we're executing on you now. That would confirm his claim.

But if lovo is cult (and you know is he is or isn't) Saf will die, there will be 2-3 scum remaining (lol@ 5 scum assumptions. 5 scum 1 cult 1 sk 13 town) Last game had 5 scum and a SK, but no cult and a fucking OP town, like 5 potential investigatives, once sanities were understood.

viewtopic.php?f=610&t=48911&hilit=alphabet&start=705

So the idea would be good in theory. Saf is saved for the day lovo is proven to be a gov. However if lovo is cult and has no action (or disagrees with saving an obvious scum) saf dies, scum kill lovo, and cult recruit again. 5/8 are now cult.

[samgrossy]

Aage, I just practically fell off the couch. You want us to prevent a lynch? Saf is 100% scum, we are close to lylo (IMO) and you, yourself, have claimed that we need to be super careful of who we lynch, but have in no uncertain terms claimed that we to lynch to stay ahead of this. Now you want LoVo to prevent the lynch. The night kill then makes us even further in the hole.

I cannot support LoVo preventing the lynch today, if we even get one. We are too close to being screwed.

FPed by Edoc

[aage]

Aage, I just practically fell off the couch. You want us to prevent a lynch? Saf is 100% scum, we are close to lylo (IMO) and you, yourself, have claimed that we need to be super careful of who we lynch, but have in no uncertain terms claimed that we to lynch to stay ahead of this. Now you want LoVo to prevent the lynch. The night kill then makes us even further in the hole.

I cannot support LoVo preventing the lynch today, if we even get one. We are too close to being screwed.

FPed by Edoc

If lovo prevents, 10 players go into night, meaning scum can't win this night and neither can the CL because there will be 2 or more non-cult town players (and we already decided that the CL won't be able to win, otherwise we wouldn't be lynching saf in the first place).
If lovo doesn't prevent, 9 players go into night, means Lovo's not town and therefore not cleared. But we lose a scum meaning once again that scum can't win this night (because they're down 1 man) and neither can the CL.

If LoVo is capable of preventing, by all means I would love him to. We need information. We already know saf is scum. We do however not know what LoVo is.

[edocsil]

Can't win? Cult would have a majority? might take a day, but it's GG.

[aage]

Can't win? Cult would have a majority? might take a day, but it's GG.

I was under the impression that the whole town had to be taken over by the cult in order to let it fulfil its win condition, so same idea as an SK. (except that it may ignore the mafia.)

[edocsil]

Can't win? Cult would have a majority? might take a day, but it's GG.

I was under the impression that the whole town had to be taken over by the cult in order to let it fulfil its win condition, so same idea as an SK. (except that it may ignore the mafia.)

No. once they can force a lynch it is over. Same as scum.

[samgrossy]

Can't win? Cult would have a majority? might take a day, but it's GG.

I was under the impression that the whole town had to be taken over by the cult in order to let it fulfil its win condition, so same idea as an SK. (except that it may ignore the mafia.)

Regardless if they overrun the twon, as soon as they hit a majority, town and scum cannot prevent it.

For arguments sake, if cult has 5 now and the rest of us are town, if we lynch a cult, then there are 4 cult at night. they recruit one, now there are 5. They have a majority and won't lynch any of their own, so they win.

Now if there are 4 cult and some even split of scum and town, like 2 and 4 respectively. If we lynch scum, then there is one scum left, and CL recruits. Mafia shoot cult at night. This leaves 4 Cult, 1 scum, and 3 town, we're still just barely hanging on, but won't get a lynch in the day. Scum shoots Cult at night, CL recruits, now there are 4 cult, 2 town, and 1 scum. Lylo. endgame. Cult can recruit to win.

So, actually, now that I really think about this, the CL must have been role blocked one night already or we would have already lost. Let's revisit the list of people roleblocked, and try to nail the CL down. The recruiting phase is really what puts us at a disadvantage.

Help now, everyone!!

[samgrossy]

Okay - I have done some quick looking. Both Aage and I are Roleblockers. So, based on my analysis above, I came across the realization that we must have blocked the CL at some point.

Aage Claims to have blocked
N1 - Strike/hippo - Still alive
N2 - vodean - dead
N3 - Me - town
N4 - Saf - scum

And I have blocked -
N1 - Hippo V1 - dead
N2 - Shaggy - alive
N3 - Lovo - alive
N4 - Aage - Almost surely town

So since I blocked Aage n4, Saf is not the CL
Since He blocked me N3, LoVo is not the CL (and lends more credence to his town claim in my book)
So that really leaves a list of two people alive that could be the CL, the two people alive from our combined D1 and D2 lynches - SHAGGY AND STRIKE/HIPPO

So now, Aage and I are both role blockers, and we both should target these guys, if they survive the lynch. I am of the impression that I should
UNVOTE VOTE SHAGGY

If we can lynch him, Scum can shoot hippo/strike and we are back rolling on this game like Cult never happened. MAfia and Town can stop working together and go back to fighting each other.
The numbers have to work because the CL HAD TO HAVE BEEN ROLEBLOCKED!

MOMENT OF CLARITY FOR ME! This has got to be it!

Unless there are two cults. Suck.

[edocsil]

Math sucks, don't need to explain. Specifically last part. Can't understand that majority is 6, not 5