I think we should explore different options for "risky spoils", different "risks," or rewards, to calculate in deciding when to cash in a set, just as there are different " risks" when you roll the dice on an attack. Something to get CC'ers thinking, or hoping or calculating .
One example that might be fun
!) if you cash in a set when you have only three spoils (the odds are 1 in a 3 you will have a set then) one time out of every 3 you will get the troops specified, one in 3 you will get 0 troops and one in 3 you will lose the number of troops specified..
2) if you cash in a set when you have four spoils (the odds are 2 out of 3 you will have a set then) , there is a 50% chance you will get the troops specified, AND a 50% chance you will get 0 troops. .
3) When you have five spoils, you are 100% certain to have a set , you must cash it in and , you will get the troops specified.
The obvious "smart move" most times might be to wait until you have five spoils but there will be times the "smart move" is to take a risk/ Maybe you are on the verge of being eliminated OR you have the chance of winning, in a Standard or Terminator or Assassin game, IF you get the extra troops now . Then there are odds to calculate in eliminating a player and cashing the spoils taken or other factors at play.
For illustration purposes using flat rate where sets are worth 4 for red, 6 for green, 8 for blue and 10 for mixed, say you have 3 spoils all green,. You might want to take a risk and cash in then, one chance in 3 of getting 6 troops, one chance in 3 of 0 troops, one chance in 3 of losing 6. You make the "smart" move and decide to wait. Your fourth spoils is also green, (one chance in 3 if you started with 3 green) . Now you calculate it does not matter what your fifth spoils will be, you will have to cash in a green set, now or your next turn. if you wait a turn you are guaranteed 6 troops. If you cash now you have a 50% chance of getting 6, 50% chance of getting 0. Some times it might be worth the risk May the spoils gods be with you.
What could be even more interesting is in escalating spoils say variants of the SoC Classic Terminator.
Say you are in the early to mid stages of a game where a set is worth in the double digits, 10 or more troops, and you have 3 spoils including a set. You could be a target for elimination as anybody who takes you out will get the points for eliminating you AND a set they can cash in for the double digits of troops. However, if you cash in your set now and you get the extra troops, 1/3 chance of that, you might be able to eliminate someone yourself, get the points and go on to victory. If you get 0 troops, a 1/3 chance, at least you are less deseirable a target. Of course if you lose the double digit amount of troops, 1/3 chance of that, if might be game over.
Say, i you wait another turn, take a tert for a spoils. Now you have 4 spoils and still have a set, worth troops in the double digits, Now do you cash, 50% chance of getting the troops, which may enable you to eliminate someone, for points and possibly their spoils and you winning big time? There is a 50% chance you get 0 troops but at least you will be a less desireable target. Decisions Decisions.
There is little risk and some good odds of reward in considering variants of "risky" spoils. Lets take a chance.
DoomYoshi wrote:Suggested b4.